Daily Betting Report

Tuesday, April 28, 2026 · Generated April 28, 2026 at 07:44 PM PDT
NBA: 0 games  |  MLB: 0 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 42 used · 19,958 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Monday, April 27 1W–6L $34.61
MLB Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Spread · +38.2% edge
✅ WON
+$19.44
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
Final: Los Angeles Angels 7 @ Chicago White Sox 8. Model projected: Chicago White Sox 3.7, Los Angeles Angels 4.8. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ 🌧️ 92% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
✦ Anthony Kay FIP: 6.15 | K/9: 5.6
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Spread · +36.0% edge
❌ LOST
$13.81
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Final: St. Louis Cardinals 4 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 2. Model projected: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.0, St. Louis Cardinals 3.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 11 mph blowing OUT (SE) at Pittsburgh — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
✦ Mason Montgomery FIP: 2.21 | K/9: 17.0
NBA Under 225.5 Total · +31.4% edge
❌ LOST
$15.72
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Final: Minnesota Timberwolves 113 @ Denver Nuggets 125. Actual total 238 vs line 225.5 (over by 12.5). Model projected 212.8.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Under 9.0 Total · +24.7% edge
❌ LOST
$11.13
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
Final: Seattle Mariners 4 @ Minnesota Twins 11. Model projected: Minnesota Twins 3.8, Seattle Mariners 1.9. Actual total 15 vs line 9.0 (over by 6.0). Model projected 5.7. ⚠ Weather/rain likely a factor.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing IN (WNW) at Minneapolis — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
✦ 🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Minneapolis (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
MLB Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline · +16.1% edge
❌ LOST
$7.54
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Final: Boston Red Sox 5 @ Toronto Blue Jays 0. Model projected: Toronto Blue Jays 4.3, Boston Red Sox 2.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ Dylan Cease FIP: 1.37 | K/9: 15.7
✦ Ranger Suarez FIP: 4.13 | K/9: 6.3
PARLAY Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline) Parlay · +18.9% edge
❌ LOST
$2.87
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)
❌ Toronto Blue Jays (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays) · ❌ Chicago Cubs (Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres)
PARLAY Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline) Parlay · +20.1% edge
❌ LOST
$2.98
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
❌ Toronto Blue Jays (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays) · ❌ Los Angeles Angels (Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox)
🏀
No NBA games today.
⚾
No MLB games today.
Singles (top 4 by edge)
Under 218.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
🕐 6:45 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 52.2% → Model 77.4% +25.2% edge ▾
Market
52.2%
Model
77.4%
Edge
+25.2%
Key Signals
Model projected score: San Antonio Spurs 106 — Portland Trail Blazers 102
Model expected total: 208.7 vs market line 218.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs OffRtg: 119.8 vs Portland Trail Blazers DefRtg: 115.8
Portland Trail Blazers OffRtg: 115.5 vs San Antonio Spurs DefRtg: 111.5
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.2
Buy contracts23
Total cost (incl. commission)$12.46
Profit if win+$10.54
Loss if lose-$12.46
Expected value +$5.34
San Antonio Spurs -10.5 ↓
NBA  Spread  ·  Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
🕐 6:45 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 50.4% → Model 65.8% +15.3% edge ▾
Market
50.4%
Model
65.8%
Edge
+15.3%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: San Antonio Spurs (+2%)
Rating edge: San Antonio Spurs (blended NetRtg diff +15.7)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
San Antonio Spurs injury impact (-1.9%)
Portland Trail Blazers injuries benefit San Antonio Spurs (+2.2%)
Model projected score: San Antonio Spurs 106 — Portland Trail Blazers 102
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: OffRtg 119.8 | DefRtg 111.5 | NetRtg 8.3
Portland Trail Blazers: OffRtg 115.5 | DefRtg 115.8 | NetRtg -0.3
San Antonio Spurs last 14 days: NetRtg 10.8 | Win% 75%
Portland Trail Blazers last 14 days: NetRtg -10.8 | Win% 25%
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 1 | Portland Trail Blazers: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — David Jones Garcia (F): OUT
⚕ Portland Trail Blazers — Damian Lillard (G): OUT
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢50.4
Buy contracts13
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.82
Profit if win+$6.18
Loss if lose-$6.82
Expected value +$1.73
Over 7.5 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
🕐 7:11 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 51.1% → Model 64.2% +13.1% edge ▾
Market
51.1%
Model
64.2%
Edge
+13.1%
Key Signals
Shohei Ohtani FIP 1.87 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9: 9.4
Janson Junk FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.97 | K/9: 5.7
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.38 vs xFIP 3.11 over 24 IP (severity 0.79) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Janson Junk: ERA 3.67 vs xFIP 3.97 over 27 IP (severity 0.20) — Miami Marlins ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing OUT (SW) at Los Angeles — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Miami Marlins schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1 — Miami Marlins 4.0
Model expected total: 9.1 vs line 7.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.38 | FIP 1.87 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9 9.4 | BB/9 2.2 | IP 24
🔴 Janson Junk: ERA 3.67 | FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.97 | K/9 5.7 | BB/9 2.3 | IP 27
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.821 | AVG 0.277 | R/G 5.66
Miami Marlins offense: OPS 0.716 | AVG 0.253 | R/G 4.48
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.27 | Miami Marlins: 4.08
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Miami Marlins — Jesus Tinoco (RP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Clint Vondrak (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Los Angeles): 67°F | Wind 10 mph SW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.11 | Miami Marlins 4.03
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢51.1
Buy contracts11
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.85
Profit if win+$5.15
Loss if lose-$5.85
Expected value +$1.22
Miami Marlins +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
🕐 7:11 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 46.5% → Model 53.4% +6.9% edge ▾
Market
46.5%
Model
53.4%
Edge
+6.9%
Key Signals
Shohei Ohtani FIP 1.87 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9: 9.4
Janson Junk FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.97 | K/9: 5.7
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.38 vs xFIP 3.11 over 24 IP (severity 0.79) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Janson Junk: ERA 3.67 vs xFIP 3.97 over 27 IP (severity 0.20) — Miami Marlins ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing OUT (SW) at Los Angeles — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Miami Marlins schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1 — Miami Marlins 4.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.38 | FIP 1.87 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9 9.4 | BB/9 2.2 | IP 24
🔴 Janson Junk: ERA 3.67 | FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.97 | K/9 5.7 | BB/9 2.3 | IP 27
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.821 | AVG 0.277 | R/G 5.66
Miami Marlins offense: OPS 0.716 | AVG 0.253 | R/G 4.48
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.27 | Miami Marlins: 4.08
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Miami Marlins — Jesus Tinoco (RP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Clint Vondrak (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Los Angeles): 67°F | Wind 10 mph SW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.11 | Miami Marlins 4.03
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢46.5
Buy contracts4
Total cost (incl. commission)$1.94
Profit if win+$2.06
Loss if lose-$1.94
Expected value +$0.20
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 69.7% · Edge: +27.0%
🔒 Locked HIGH
San Antonio Spurs (Moneyline)
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs · Model: 90.0% · Edge: +8.2%
Under 218.5 (Total)
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs · Model: 77.4% · Edge: +25.2%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢42.7
Buy contracts12
Total cost$5.36
Profit if win+$6.64
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 34.3% · Edge: +10.5%
🔒 Locked HIGH
Miami Marlins +1.5 (Spread)
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Model: 53.4% · Edge: +6.9%
Over 7.5 (Total)
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Model: 64.2% · Edge: +13.1%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢23.8
Buy contracts5
Total cost$1.29
Profit if win+$3.71
Props Watchlist — model projections only. No sportsbook line available. Search Robinhood manually before betting.
Donovan Clingan
NBA  Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Rebounds Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Proj 11.6 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.6
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Donovan Clingan rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.6 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Donovan Clingan averages 11.6 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | PPG 115.5 | OPPG 111.5 (opp) | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers recent (14d): PPG 101.2 | OPPG 112.0 | Win% 25%
Model projected team pts: 108.6 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Portland Trail Blazers: 1d | San Antonio Spurs: 1d
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers · Rebounds Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Proj 11.5 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.5
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Victor Wembanyama rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Victor Wembanyama averages 11.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 115.8 (opp) | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs recent (14d): PPG 112.0 | OPPG 101.2 | Win% 75%
Model projected team pts: 115.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 1d | Portland Trail Blazers: 1d
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers · Points Over
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Proj 26.4 · Bet Over ≤ 26 ▾
Projected
26.4
Bet Over ≤
26
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Victor Wembanyama points' on Robinhood. Model line: 26.4 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 26.
Key Signals
Victor Wembanyama season avg: 25.0 PPG
Portland Trail Blazers allows 115.8 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 115.8 (opp) | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs recent (14d): PPG 112.0 | OPPG 101.2 | Win% 75%
Model projected team pts: 115.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 1d | Portland Trail Blazers: 1d
Deni Avdija
NBA  Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Proj 25.4 · Bet Over ≤ 25 ▾
Projected
25.4
Bet Over ≤
25
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Deni Avdija points' on Robinhood. Model line: 25.4 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 25.
Key Signals
Deni Avdija season avg: 24.2 PPG
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | PPG 115.5 | OPPG 111.5 (opp) | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers recent (14d): PPG 101.2 | OPPG 112.0 | Win% 25%
Model projected team pts: 108.6 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Portland Trail Blazers: 1d | San Antonio Spurs: 1d
Stephon Castle
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers · Assists Over
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Proj 7.4 · Bet Over ≤ 7 ▾
Projected
7.4
Bet Over ≤
7
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Stephon Castle assists' on Robinhood. Model line: 7.4 APG season avg. Look for Over at or below 7.
Key Signals
Stephon Castle averages 7.4 assists/game this season
High-scoring expected game supports assist volume
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 115.8 (opp) | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs recent (14d): PPG 112.0 | OPPG 101.2 | Win% 75%
Model projected team pts: 115.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 1d | Portland Trail Blazers: 1d
Shohei Ohtani
MLB  Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 5.2 · Bet Over ≤ 5 ▾
Projected
5.2
Bet Over ≤
5
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Shohei Ohtani strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.2 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Key Signals
K/9: 9.4 (opp K% 20.6%) → adjusted 8.5 → projects 5.2 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 1.87 / xFIP 3.11 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 24 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.38 | FIP 1.87 | xFIP 3.11 | K/9 9.4 | BB/9 2.2 | HR/9 0.00
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (park factor 0.97)
Opponent K%: 20.6% (league avg 22.8%)
Janson Junk
MLB  Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 3.2 · Bet Over ≤ 3 ▾
Projected
3.2
Bet Over ≤
3
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Janson Junk strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~3.2 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 3.
Key Signals
K/9: 5.7 → adjusted 5.3 → projects 3.2 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.97 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 27 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Janson Junk: ERA 3.67 | FIP 3.68 | xFIP 3.97 | K/9 5.7 | BB/9 2.3 | HR/9 0.67
Season IP: 27 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (park factor 0.97)
Opponent K%: 21.3% (league avg 22.8%)
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Under 218.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
6:45 PM PDT
+25.2%
—
 23
12.5%
$12.46
+$10.54
2
San Antonio Spurs -10.5 (Spread) ↑
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
6:45 PM PDT
+15.3%
—
 13
6.8%
$6.82
+$6.18
3
Over 7.5 (Total) ↑
MLB
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
7:11 PM PDT
+13.1%
—
 11
5.8%
$5.85
+$5.15
4
Miami Marlins +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
7:11 PM PDT
+6.9%
—
 4
1.9%
$1.94
+$2.06
P1
San Antonio Spurs (Moneyline) + Under 218.5 (Total) ↑
Parlay
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs / Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
+27.0%
—
 12
5.4%
$5.36
+$6.64
P2
Miami Marlins +1.5 (Spread) + Over 7.5 (Total) ↑
Parlay
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers / Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
+10.5%
—
 5
1.3%
$1.29
+$3.71
Deployed $33.72 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $66.28
Props Model Accuracy — how often the model's projection exceeded the actual stat
Props Settled
27
Model Hit Rate
37.0%
Avg Error
-2.6
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 6 16.7% 28.6 21.5 -7.1
Rebounds 7 57.1% 11.8 10.7 -1.1
Assists 3 33.3% 10.4 10.3 -0.1
Strikeouts 9 22.2% 6.4 4.2 -2.2
Hits 2 100.0% 1.0 1.5 +0.5
HIGH confidence
58.3%
7H / 5M (12 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
20.0%
3H / 12M (15 settled)
Model Performance
Record
7W–11L
Win Rate
38.9%
Total PnL
$-38.99
ROI
-19.3%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
6W–10L (37.5%)
$-24.21
MEDIUM
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-14.78
NBA
2W–3L (40.0%)
$-18.73
MLB
3W–6L (33.3%)
$-46.91
PARLAY
2W–2L (50.0%)
$+26.65
⚠ Only 18 settled bet(s) — need 30+ for statistically meaningful calibration.
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (18 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $-38.99 total
$+15 $0 $-54 04-25 04-26 04-27
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-26 04-27
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 2 55.9% 100.0% +44.1%
15%+ 16 75.7% 31.2% -44.5%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.