Daily Betting Report

Saturday, April 25, 2026 · Generated April 25, 2026 at 02:18 PM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 8 games  |  Budget: $100
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Under 16.0
MLB  Total  ·  San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
🕐 3:06 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
47.6%
Model
98.9%
Edge
+51.3%
Key Signals
Zac Gallen FIP: 3.95 | K/9: 5.0
Germán Márquez FIP: 6.11 | K/9: 7.4
Model projected score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.7 — San Diego Padres 4.1
Model expected total: 9.8 vs line 16.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Zac Gallen (home): ERA 3.51 | FIP 3.95 | K/9 5.0 | BB/9 2.5 | IP 25
🔴 Germán Márquez (away): ERA 3.86 | FIP 6.11 | K/9 7.4 | BB/9 3.0 | IP 18
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.723 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.64
San Diego Padres offense: OPS 0.682 | AVG 0.234 | R/G 4.40
Bullpen ERA — Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.41 | San Diego Padres: 3.62
Venue: Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.73 | San Diego Padres 4.05
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢47.6
Buy contracts49
Total cost (incl. commission)$24.31
Profit if win+$24.69
Loss if lose-$24.31
Expected value +$24.17
Los Angeles Angels
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals
🕐 4:11 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
42.8%
Model
85.0%
Edge
+42.2%
Key Signals
Cole Ragans FIP: 7.39 | K/9: 9.4
Walbert Urena FIP: 2.51 | K/9: 12.5
Model projected score: Kansas City Royals 3.3 — Los Angeles Angels 6.1
Research & Stats
🔵 Cole Ragans (home): ERA 6.0 | FIP 7.39 | K/9 9.4 | BB/9 7.7 | IP 21
🔴 Walbert Urena (away): ERA 2.35 | FIP 2.51 | K/9 12.5 | BB/9 6.2 | IP 7
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.668 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 3.62
Los Angeles Angels offense: OPS 0.721 | AVG 0.226 | R/G 4.78
Bullpen ERA — Kansas City Royals: 4.65 | Los Angeles Angels: 4.08
Venue: Kauffman Stadium — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Kansas City Royals 3.33 | Los Angeles Angels 6.14
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢42.8
Buy contracts40
Total cost (incl. commission)$17.93
Profit if win+$22.07
Loss if lose-$17.93
Expected value +$16.07
Over 215.5
NBA  Total  ·  New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
🕐 3:10 PM PDT
MEDIUM
Market
52.4%
Model
85.9%
Edge
+33.5%
Key Signals
Model expected total: 230.5 vs market line 215.5
Combined pace: 100.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Atlanta Hawks OffRtg: 118.5 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Atlanta Hawks DefRtg: 116.0
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.4
Buy contracts31
Total cost (incl. commission)$16.86
Profit if win+$14.14
Loss if lose-$16.86
Expected value +$9.76
Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB  Moneyline  ·  San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
🕐 3:06 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
50.4%
Model
82.4%
Edge
+32.0%
Key Signals
Zac Gallen FIP: 3.95 | K/9: 5.0
Germán Márquez FIP: 6.11 | K/9: 7.4
Model projected score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.7 — San Diego Padres 4.1
Research & Stats
🔵 Zac Gallen (home): ERA 3.51 | FIP 3.95 | K/9 5.0 | BB/9 2.5 | IP 25
🔴 Germán Márquez (away): ERA 3.86 | FIP 6.11 | K/9 7.4 | BB/9 3.0 | IP 18
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.723 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.64
San Diego Padres offense: OPS 0.682 | AVG 0.234 | R/G 4.40
Bullpen ERA — Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.41 | San Diego Padres: 3.62
Venue: Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.73 | San Diego Padres 4.05
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢50.4
Buy contracts30
Total cost (incl. commission)$15.73
Profit if win+$14.27
Loss if lose-$15.73
Expected value +$9.00
Chicago Cubs
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers
🕐 4:16 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
45.7%
Model
76.4%
Edge
+30.7%
Key Signals
Roki Sasaki FIP: 6.34 | K/9: 8.9
Colin Rea FIP: 3.24 | K/9: 7.5
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
Model projected score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.8 — Chicago Cubs 6.1
Research & Stats
🔵 Roki Sasaki (home): ERA 6.11 | FIP 6.34 | K/9 8.9 | BB/9 6.3 | IP 17
🔴 Colin Rea (away): ERA 3.0 | FIP 3.24 | K/9 7.5 | BB/9 1.9 | IP 24
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.821 | AVG 0.276 | R/G 5.42
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.790 | AVG 0.268 | R/G 5.58
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.38 | Chicago Cubs: 3.46
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.81 | Chicago Cubs 6.10
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢45.7
Buy contracts28
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.35
Profit if win+$14.65
Loss if lose-$13.35
Expected value +$8.03
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1
Combined prob: 81.6% · Edge: +57.6%
HIGH
Arizona Diamondbacks (Moneyline)
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Model: 82.4% · Edge: +32.0%
Under 16.0 (Total)
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Model: 98.9% · Edge: +51.3%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢24.0
Buy contracts36
Total cost$9.37
Profit if win+$26.63
Parlay #2
Combined prob: 70.1% · Edge: +48.5%
HIGH
Arizona Diamondbacks (Moneyline)
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Model: 82.4% · Edge: +32.0%
Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals · Model: 85.0% · Edge: +42.2%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢21.6
Buy contracts32
Total cost$7.55
Profit if win+$24.45
Props Research (verify Robinhood price before betting)
Jalen Johnson
NBA  Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks · Points Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
22.5
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Jalen Johnson season avg: 22.5 PPG
New York Knicks allows 110.1 PPG — average defense
Research & Stats
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | PPG 118.5 | OPPG 110.1 (opp) | Net +2.4
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks recent (14d): PPG 106.0 | OPPG 109.0 | Win% 67%
Model projected team pts: 111.0 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Atlanta Hawks: 1d | New York Knicks: 1d
Search 'Jalen Johnson points' on Robinhood. Model line: 22.5 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 22.
Jalen Johnson
NBA  Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Model Line
10.3
Direction
Over
Confidence
HIGH
Key Signals
Jalen Johnson averages 10.3 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | PPG 118.5 | OPPG 110.1 (opp) | Net +2.4
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks recent (14d): PPG 106.0 | OPPG 109.0 | Win% 67%
Model projected team pts: 111.0 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Atlanta Hawks: 1d | New York Knicks: 1d
Search 'Jalen Johnson rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 10.3 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 10.
Jalen Johnson
NBA  Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks · Assists Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
7.9
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Jalen Johnson averages 7.9 assists/game this season
High-scoring expected game supports assist volume
Research & Stats
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | PPG 118.5 | OPPG 110.1 (opp) | Net +2.4
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks recent (14d): PPG 106.0 | OPPG 109.0 | Win% 67%
Model projected team pts: 111.0 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Atlanta Hawks: 1d | New York Knicks: 1d
Search 'Jalen Johnson assists' on Robinhood. Model line: 7.9 APG season avg. Look for Over at or below 7.
Jalen Brunson
NBA  New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks · Points Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
26.1
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Jalen Brunson season avg: 26.0 PPG
Atlanta Hawks allows 116.0 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 116.0 (opp) | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | Net +2.4
New York Knicks recent (14d): PPG 109.0 | OPPG 106.0 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 113.3 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — New York Knicks: 1d | Atlanta Hawks: 1d
Search 'Jalen Brunson points' on Robinhood. Model line: 26.1 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 26.
Karl-Anthony Towns
NBA  New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Model Line
11.9
Direction
Over
Confidence
HIGH
Key Signals
Karl-Anthony Towns averages 11.9 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 116.0 (opp) | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | Net +2.4
New York Knicks recent (14d): PPG 109.0 | OPPG 106.0 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 113.3 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — New York Knicks: 1d | Atlanta Hawks: 1d
Search 'Karl-Anthony Towns rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.9 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Jalen Brunson
NBA  New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks · Assists Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
6.8
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Jalen Brunson averages 6.8 assists/game this season
High-scoring expected game supports assist volume
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 116.0 (opp) | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | Net +2.4
New York Knicks recent (14d): PPG 109.0 | OPPG 106.0 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 113.3 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — New York Knicks: 1d | Atlanta Hawks: 1d
Search 'Jalen Brunson assists' on Robinhood. Model line: 6.8 APG season avg. Look for Over at or below 6.
Zac Gallen
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
3.1
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 5.0 → projects 3.1 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.95 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 25 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Zac Gallen: ERA 3.51 | FIP 3.95 | K/9 5.0 | BB/9 2.5 | HR/9 0.71
Season IP: 25 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu (park factor 1.00)
Search 'Zac Gallen strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~3.1 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 3.
MacKenzie Gore
MLB  Texas Rangers vs Athletics · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
7.4
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 12.1 → projects 7.4 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.39 (above league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 26 — limited sample
Research & Stats
MacKenzie Gore: ERA 4.15 | FIP 4.39 | K/9 12.1 | BB/9 4.2 | HR/9 1.73
Season IP: 26 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Globe Life Field (park factor 1.05)
Search 'MacKenzie Gore strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~7.4 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 7.
Jeffrey Springs
MLB  Athletics vs Texas Rangers · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
5.1
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 8.3 → projects 5.1 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.06 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 29 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Jeffrey Springs: ERA 3.34 | FIP 4.06 | K/9 8.3 | BB/9 2.8 | HR/9 1.23
Season IP: 29 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Globe Life Field (park factor 1.05)
Search 'Jeffrey Springs strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.1 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Cole Ragans
MLB  Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
5.7
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 9.4 → projects 5.7 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 7.39 (above league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 21 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Cole Ragans: ERA 6.00 | FIP 7.39 | K/9 9.4 | BB/9 7.7 | HR/9 2.57
Season IP: 21 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Kauffman Stadium (park factor 1.00)
Search 'Cole Ragans strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.7 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Los Angeles Angels top-order batters
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals · Hits Over (1+)
MEDIUM
Model Line
1.0
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Pitcher FIP 7.39 — above avg (4.20), favorable for hitters
Model projects ~4.0 hits in 5.5 inn
Target: Los Angeles Angels leadoff, #2, and #3 batters for 1+ hit props
Research & Stats
Cole Ragans: ERA 6.00 | FIP 7.39 | K/9 9.4 | BB/9 7.7 | HR/9 2.57
Season IP: 21 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Kauffman Stadium (park factor 1.00)
FIP 7.39 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.0 hits in 5.5 inn
Cole Ragans (FIP 7.39) is hittable. On Robinhood, search 1+ hits over props for Los Angeles Angels's #1–#3 batters in the lineup. Model projects ~4.0 total hits in 5.5 inn.
Mike Burrows
MLB  Houston Astros vs New York Yankees · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
5.3
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 8.6 → projects 5.3 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.80 (above league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 26 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Mike Burrows: ERA 6.75 | FIP 4.80 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 3.1 | HR/9 1.72
Season IP: 26 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Daikin Park (park factor 1.00)
Search 'Mike Burrows strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.3 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Under 16.0 (Total)
MLB
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
3:06 PM PDT
+51.3%
—
 49
24.3%
$24.31
+$24.69
2
Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
MLB
Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals
4:11 PM PDT
+42.2%
—
 40
17.9%
$17.93
+$22.07
3
Over 215.5 (Total)
NBA
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
3:10 PM PDT
+33.5%
—
 31
16.9%
$16.86
+$14.14
4
Arizona Diamondbacks (Moneyline)
MLB
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
3:06 PM PDT
+32.0%
—
 30
15.7%
$15.73
+$14.27
5
Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)
MLB
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers
4:16 PM PDT
+30.7%
—
 28
13.4%
$13.35
+$14.65
P1
Arizona Diamondbacks (Moneyline) + Under 16.0 (Total)
Parlay
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks / San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
+57.6%
—
 36
9.4%
$9.37
+$26.63
P2
Arizona Diamondbacks (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
Parlay
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks / Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals
+48.5%
—
 32
7.5%
$7.55
+$24.45
Deployed $105.10 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $0.00
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.