Daily Betting Report

Sunday, May 10, 2026 · Generated May 10, 2026 at 02:10 PM PDT
NBA: 1 game  |  MLB: 1 game  |  NHL: 2 games  |  IPL: 1 match  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 2,327 used · 17,673 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Saturday, May 09 3W–4L $22.26
NBA Detroit Pistons +4.5 · +29.8% edge
❌ LOST
$13.82
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Final: Detroit Pistons 109 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 116. Model win probability: 79.0%. Actual margin +7 (needed +4.5).
✦ Cleveland Cavaliers injury impact (-0.8%)
✦ Detroit Pistons injuries benefit Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.2%)
MLB Colorado Rockies +1.5 · +17.0% edge
❌ LOST
$8.61
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Final: Colorado Rockies 3 @ Philadelphia Phillies 9. Model projected: Philadelphia Phillies 4.2, Colorado Rockies 4.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection. ⚠ Weather/rain likely a factor.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 12 mph blowing OUT (SW) at Philadelphia — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
✦ 🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Philadelphia (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
NBA Under 211.5 · +12.3% edge
❌ LOST
$5.45
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 131 @ Los Angeles Lakers 108. Actual total 239 vs line 211.5 (over by 27.5). Model projected 206.6.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Atlanta Braves +1.5 · +10.1% edge
✅ WON
+$3.36
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Final: Atlanta Braves 7 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 2. Model projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.0, Atlanta Braves 4.8. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Spencer Strider FIP 8.36 / xFIP 5.43 | K/9: 17.4
✦ Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
MLB Chicago White Sox +1.5 · +8.7% edge
✅ WON
+$2.47
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
Final: Seattle Mariners 1 @ Chicago White Sox 6. Model projected: Chicago White Sox 4.1, Seattle Mariners 4.3. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Anthony Kay FIP 5.97 / xFIP 4.97 | K/9: 6.0
✦ Luis Castillo FIP 4.05 / xFIP 4.05 | K/9: 8.2
PARLAY Detroit Pistons (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML) · +21.7% edge
❌ LOST
$2.91
Detroit Pistons (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
❌ Detroit Pistons (Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers) · ❌ Colorado Rockies (Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies)
PARLAY Atlanta Braves +1.5 + Over 8.5 · +10.2% edge
✅ WON
+$2.70
Atlanta Braves +1.5 + Over 8.5
✅ Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers) · ✅ Over 8.5 (Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers)
🏀 NBA 4 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
New York Knicks ↓
NBA  ML  ·  New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 90.0% +37.5% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
90.0%
Edge
+37.5%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Philadelphia 76ers (+2%)
Rating edge: New York Knicks (blended NetRtg diff -22.4)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Philadelphia 76ers injury impact (-0.6%)
New York Knicks injuries benefit Philadelphia 76ers (+0.7%)
Model projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 102 — New York Knicks 105
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: OffRtg 115.9 | DefRtg 116.1 | NetRtg -0.2
New York Knicks: OffRtg 116.5 | DefRtg 110.1 | NetRtg 6.3
Philadelphia 76ers last 14 days: NetRtg -7.6 | Win% 43%
New York Knicks last 14 days: NetRtg 27.8 | Win% 100%
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1 | New York Knicks: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Philadelphia 76ers — Joel Embiid (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Knicks — OG Anunoby (F): DAY-TO-DAY
Under 214.5 ↓
NBA New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 52.3% → Model 72.1% +19.9% edge ▾
Market
52.3%
Model
72.1%
Edge
+19.9%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 102 — New York Knicks 105
Model expected total: 206.9 vs market line 214.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
San Antonio Spurs -5.5 ↓
NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
HIGH
Mkt 50.0% → Model 77.6% +27.5% edge ▾
Market
50.0%
Model
77.6%
Edge
+27.5%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Minnesota Timberwolves (+2%)
Rating edge: San Antonio Spurs (blended NetRtg diff -16.1)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Minnesota Timberwolves injury impact (-2.2%)
San Antonio Spurs injuries benefit Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.9%)
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: OffRtg 118.0 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 3.4
San Antonio Spurs: OffRtg 119.8 | DefRtg 111.5 | NetRtg 8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves last 14 days: NetRtg -8.6 | Win% 40%
San Antonio Spurs last 14 days: NetRtg 16.6 | Win% 80%
Rest days — Minnesota Timberwolves: 1 | San Antonio Spurs: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Donte DiVincenzo (G): OUT
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — David Jones Garcia (F): OUT
Under 217.5 ↓
NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
HIGH
Mkt 52.4% → Model 73.4% +21.1% edge ▾
Market
52.4%
Model
73.4%
Edge
+21.1%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106
Model expected total: 209.4 vs market line 217.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves OffRtg: 118.0 vs San Antonio Spurs DefRtg: 111.5
San Antonio Spurs OffRtg: 119.8 vs Minnesota Timberwolves DefRtg: 114.6
Props
▾
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Points Over
HIGH
Over 8.5 56.5% · Model 11.9 · +25.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 8.5
Book Odds
56.5%
Model Proj
11.9
Edge
+25.1%
Draftkings: Over 8.5 at 56.5%. Model projects 11.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 8.5 at 56.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.9 → edge +25.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves allows 114.6 PPG (above avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 50.2% · Model 4.8 · +24.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
50.2%
Model Proj
4.8
Edge
+24.1%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 50.2%. Model projects 4.8.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 50.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.8 → edge +24.1%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Julius Randle
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Assists Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 56.9% · Model 4.8 · +19.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
56.9%
Model Proj
4.8
Edge
+19.7%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 56.9%. Model projects 4.8.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 56.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.8 → edge +19.7%
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Julius Randle: 21.1 PPG / 6.7 RPG / 5.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Blocks Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 61.4% · Model 5.0 · +17.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
61.4%
Model Proj
5.0
Edge
+17.0%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 61.4%. Model projects 5.0.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 61.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.0 → edge +17.0%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Victor Wembanyama: 0.0 PPG / 11.4 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 5.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Julius Randle
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
HIGH
Over 16.5 55.6% · Model 20.2 · +16.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 16.5
Book Odds
55.6%
Model Proj
20.2
Edge
+16.3%
Draftkings: Over 16.5 at 55.6%. Model projects 20.2.
Key Signals
Market: Over 16.5 at 55.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 20.2 → edge +16.3%
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: starter adjustment applied (-4%)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Julius Randle: 21.1 PPG / 6.7 RPG / 5.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Anthony Edwards
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
HIGH
Over 26.5 51.7% · Model 30.1 · +13.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 26.5
Book Odds
51.7%
Model Proj
30.1
Edge
+13.5%
Draftkings: Over 26.5 at 51.7%. Model projects 30.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 26.5 at 51.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 30.1 → edge +13.5%
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Anthony Edwards: 28.8 PPG / 0.0 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
⚾ MLB 3 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Under 10.5 ↓
MLB Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 52.0% → Model 66.6% +14.6% edge ▾
Market
52.0%
Model
66.6%
Edge
+14.6%
Key Signals
Keegan Akin FIP 6.28 / xFIP 3.03 | K/9: 8.7
Luis Severino FIP 4.45 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9: 9.0
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-2.6%)
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Athletics schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Baltimore Orioles 4.3 — Athletics 4.3
Model expected total: 8.6 vs line 10.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Keegan Akin: ERA 11.12 | FIP 6.28 / xFIP 3.03 | K/9 8.7 | BB/9 0.0 | IP 5
🔴 Luis Severino: ERA 4.15 | FIP 4.45 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9 9.0 | BB/9 5.2 | IP 43
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.704 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.47
Athletics offense: OPS 0.732 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.49
Bullpen ERA — Baltimore Orioles: 4.84 | Athletics: 4.47
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Carlos Torres (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Baltimore): 69°F | Wind 5 mph W (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Baltimore Orioles 4.28 | Athletics 4.29
Detroit Tigers
MLB  ML  ·  Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
MEDIUM
Mkt 46.5% → Model 51.3% +4.8% edge ▾
Market
46.5%
Model
51.3%
Edge
+4.8%
Key Signals
Noah Cameron FIP 4.55 / xFIP 4.13 | K/9: 8.1
Brenan Hanifee FIP 2.39 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9: 5.8
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-2.2%)
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Detroit Tigers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Kansas City Royals 4.3 — Detroit Tigers 4.3
Research & Stats
🔵 Noah Cameron: ERA 5.4 | FIP 4.55 / xFIP 4.13 | K/9 8.1 | BB/9 3.2 | IP 31
🔴 Brenan Hanifee: ERA 0.0 | FIP 2.39 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9 5.8 | BB/9 1.5 | IP 6
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.712 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.15
Detroit Tigers offense: OPS 0.711 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.22
Bullpen ERA — Kansas City Royals: 4.23 | Detroit Tigers: 3.93
Venue: Kauffman Stadium — neutral park
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Dugan Darnell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Emil Jimenez (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Kansas City): 79°F | Wind 8 mph NNE (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Kansas City Royals 4.30 | Detroit Tigers 4.30
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Kansas City Royals +1.5
MLB Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
MEDIUM
Mkt 63.5% → Model 68.0% +4.5% edge ▾
Market
63.5%
Model
68.0%
Edge
+4.5%
Key Signals
Noah Cameron FIP 4.55 / xFIP 4.13 | K/9: 8.1
Brenan Hanifee FIP 2.39 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9: 5.8
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-2.2%)
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Detroit Tigers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Kansas City Royals 4.3 — Detroit Tigers 4.3
Research & Stats
🔵 Noah Cameron: ERA 5.4 | FIP 4.55 / xFIP 4.13 | K/9 8.1 | BB/9 3.2 | IP 31
🔴 Brenan Hanifee: ERA 0.0 | FIP 2.39 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9 5.8 | BB/9 1.5 | IP 6
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.712 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.15
Detroit Tigers offense: OPS 0.711 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.22
Bullpen ERA — Kansas City Royals: 4.23 | Detroit Tigers: 3.93
Venue: Kauffman Stadium — neutral park
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Dugan Darnell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Emil Jimenez (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Kansas City): 79°F | Wind 8 mph NNE (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Kansas City Royals 4.30 | Detroit Tigers 4.30
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Maikel Garcia
MLB  Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 43.5% · Model 2.87 · +39.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.5%
Model Proj
2.87
Edge
+39.2%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.5%. Model: 2.87.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.87 → edge +39.2%
vs Brenan Hanifee (FIP 2.39) at Kauffman Stadium (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Maikel Garcia: AVG 0.270 | OBP 0.337 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 1.63 | HR/G 0.079 | HRR/G 1.97 (166 PA)
Facing Brenan Hanifee: FIP 2.39
Park factor 1.00 at Kauffman Stadium
Carter Jensen
MLB  Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 50.0% · Model 2.8 · +38.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
50.0%
Model Proj
2.8
Edge
+38.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 50.0%. Model: 2.80.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 50.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.80 → edge +38.8%
vs Brenan Hanifee (FIP 2.39) at Kauffman Stadium (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Carter Jensen: AVG 0.222 | OBP 0.313 | H/G 0.70 | TB/G 1.27 | HR/G 0.162 | HRR/G 1.59 (134 PA)
Facing Brenan Hanifee: FIP 2.39
Park factor 1.00 at Kauffman Stadium
Isaac Collins
MLB  Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 49.3% · Model 2.79 · +38.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.3%
Model Proj
2.79
Edge
+38.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.3%. Model: 2.79.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.79 → edge +38.0%
vs Brenan Hanifee (FIP 2.39) at Kauffman Stadium (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Isaac Collins: AVG 0.250 | OBP 0.363 | H/G 0.77 | TB/G 1.15 | HR/G 0.088 | HRR/G 1.59 (124 PA)
Facing Brenan Hanifee: FIP 2.39
Park factor 1.00 at Kauffman Stadium
Jac Caglianone
MLB  Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 50.2% · Model 2.59 · +37.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
50.2%
Model Proj
2.59
Edge
+37.2%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 50.2%. Model: 2.59.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 50.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.59 → edge +37.2%
vs Brenan Hanifee (FIP 2.39) at Kauffman Stadium (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Jac Caglianone: AVG 0.246 | OBP 0.321 | H/G 0.81 | TB/G 1.36 | HR/G 0.111 | HRR/G 1.47 (131 PA)
Facing Brenan Hanifee: FIP 2.39
Park factor 1.00 at Kauffman Stadium
Maikel Garcia
MLB  Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 57.4% · Model 3.47 · +35.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
57.4%
Model Proj
3.47
Edge
+35.3%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 57.4%. Model: 3.47.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 57.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.47 → edge +35.3%
vs Brenan Hanifee (FIP 2.39) at Kauffman Stadium (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Maikel Garcia: AVG 0.270 | OBP 0.337 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 1.63 | HR/G 0.079 | HRR/G 1.97 (166 PA)
Facing Brenan Hanifee: FIP 2.39
Park factor 1.00 at Kauffman Stadium
Bobby Witt Jr.
MLB  Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 52.4% · Model 3.29 · +35.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
52.4%
Model Proj
3.29
Edge
+35.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 52.4%. Model: 3.29.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 52.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.29 → edge +35.2%
vs Brenan Hanifee (FIP 2.39) at Kauffman Stadium (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Bobby Witt Jr.: AVG 0.297 | OBP 0.369 | H/G 1.18 | TB/G 1.88 | HR/G 0.125 | HRR/G 2.10 (179 PA)
Facing Brenan Hanifee: FIP 2.39
Park factor 1.00 at Kauffman Stadium
🏒 NHL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Vegas Golden Knights
NHL  ML  ·  Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks
MEDIUM
Mkt 51.6% → Model 73.7% +22.2% edge ▾
Market
51.6%
Model
73.7%
Edge
+22.2%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Anaheim Ducks (+2%)
Rating edge: Vegas Golden Knights (blended goal-diff -1.19)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Anaheim Ducks injury impact (-0.5%)
Vegas Golden Knights injuries benefit Anaheim Ducks (+0.6%)
Research & Stats
Anaheim Ducks last 14 days: NetRtg -0.50 | Win% 50%
Vegas Golden Knights last 14 days: NetRtg 1.67 | Win% 83%
Rest days — Anaheim Ducks: 2 | Vegas Golden Knights: 2
⚕ Anaheim Ducks — Radko Gudas (D): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Vegas Golden Knights — Mark Stone (RW): DAY-TO-DAY
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Buffalo Sabres +1.5
NHL Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens
MEDIUM
Mkt 68.2% → Model 84.0% +15.9% edge ▾
Market
68.2%
Model
84.0%
Edge
+15.9%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Montreal Canadiens (+2%)
Rating edge: Buffalo Sabres (blended goal-diff -0.37)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Buffalo Sabres injuries benefit Montreal Canadiens (+2.0%)
Research & Stats
Montreal Canadiens last 14 days: NetRtg 0.33 | Win% 50%
Buffalo Sabres last 14 days: NetRtg 1.00 | Win% 60%
Rest days — Montreal Canadiens: 2 | Buffalo Sabres: 2
⚕ Buffalo Sabres — Noah Ostlund (C): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
🏏 IPL 1 pick · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Delhi Capitals
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Delhi Capitals @ Punjab Kings
📅 loading…
MEDIUM
Mkt 43.3% → Model 47.5% +4.2% edge ▾
Market
43.3%
Model
47.5%
Edge
+4.2%
Key Signals
⚠ IPL form data unavailable — using market baseline only
Home venue advantage: Punjab Kings (+2%)
Research & Stats
Rest days — Punjab Kings: 3 | Delhi Capitals: 3
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Today's Card top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
New York Knicks (ML) ↑
NBA
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
+37.5%
—
 35
19.1%
$19.06
+$15.94
🔒
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts35
Total cost (incl. commission)$19.06
Profit if win+$15.94
Loss if lose-$19.06
Expected value +$12.44
2
San Antonio Spurs -5.5 ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
+27.5%
—
 27
14.1%
$14.07
+$12.93
Robinhood Action — San Antonio Spurs -5.5
Contract price (est.)¢50.1
Buy contracts27
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.07
Profit if win+$12.93
Loss if lose-$14.07
Expected value +$7.52
3
Under 217.5 ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
+21.1%
—
 19
10.4%
$10.36
+$8.64
Robinhood Action — Under 217.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts19
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.36
Profit if win+$8.64
Loss if lose-$10.36
Expected value +$3.60
4
Under 214.5 ↑
NBA
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
+19.9%
—
 17
9.2%
$9.22
+$7.78
🔒
Robinhood Action — Under 214.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.3
Buy contracts17
Total cost (incl. commission)$9.22
Profit if win+$7.78
Loss if lose-$9.22
Expected value +$3.04
5
Under 10.5 ↑
MLB
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
+14.6%
—
 12
6.5%
$6.47
+$5.53
🔒
Robinhood Action — Under 10.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.0
Buy contracts12
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.47
Profit if win+$5.53
Loss if lose-$6.47
Expected value +$1.52
P1
New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
Parlay
+46.7%
—
 24
8.4%
$8.45
+$15.55
🔒
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢33.2
Buy contracts24
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.45
Profit if win+$15.55
P2
New York Knicks -1.5 + Under 214.5
Parlay
+37.0%
—
 21
5.9%
$5.92
+$15.08
🔒
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks -1.5 + Under 214.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.2
Buy contracts21
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.92
Profit if win+$15.08
Deployed $73.55 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $26.45
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals ● includes today
Props Settled
157
Model Hit Rate
45.2%
Avg Error
-1.8
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 38 39.5% 22.2 19.1 -3.1
Rebounds 27 48.1% 9.8 8.6 -1.2
Assists 11 36.4% 8.3 6.9 -1.4
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 25 72.0% 1.1 1.3 +0.2
HRR 27 37.0% 4.1 1.1 -3.0
Total Bases 6 16.7% 4.0 1.3 -2.7
Steals 2 0.0% 2.7 1.0 -1.7
HIGH confidence
45.4%
49H / 59M (108 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
NBA
41.0%
32H / 46M (78 settled)
Avg err: -2.2
MLB
49.4%
39H / 40M (79 settled)
Avg err: -1.5
▶ Hit Rate Trend (155 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-02 05-09
Model Performance
Record
58W–41L
Win Rate
58.6%
Total PnL
$+190.61
ROI
23.0%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
56W–40L (58.3%)
$+198.20
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
🏀 NBA
19W–11L (63.3%)
$+78.91
⚾ MLB
26W–16L (61.9%)
$+31.19
PARLAYS
13W–14L (48.1%)
$+80.51
Watchlist Tracking  — no budget allocated, W-L only
🏒 NHL
1W–1L (50.0%)
2 picks tracked
🏏 IPL
0W–0L
No picks settled yet
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (100 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+190.61 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-02 05-09
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-02 05-09
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 18 59.7% 58.8% -0.9%
15%+ 79 69.2% 57.0% -12.2%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.