Daily Betting Report

Friday, May 15, 2026 · Generated May 15, 2026 at 01:29 PM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 15 games  |  NFL: 0 games  |  IPL: 2 matches  |  WNBA: 4 games  |  MLS: 0 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 4,635 used · 15,365 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Thursday, May 14 5W–2L +$10.38
MLB Houston Astros +1.5 · +19.1% edge
❌ LOST
$11.04
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Final: Seattle Mariners 8 @ Houston Astros 3. Model projected: Houston Astros 4.1, Seattle Mariners 4.2. Correct side but didn't cover +1.5 (actual margin -5.0).
✦ Mike Burrows FIP 4.6 / xFIP 3.72 | K/9: 8.6
✦ Luis Castillo FIP 4.33 / xFIP 3.71 | K/9: 8.7
MLB Athletics +1.5 · +17.0% edge
✅ WON
+$5.91
St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics
Final: St. Louis Cardinals 5 @ Athletics 4. Model projected: Athletics 4.2, St. Louis Cardinals 4.3. Covered +1.5 — actual margin -1.0.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Michael McGreevy: ERA 2.18 vs xFIP 3.70 over 45 IP (severity 1.52) — St. Louis Cardinals ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Jacob Lopez FIP 6.62 / xFIP 5.62 | K/9: 7.2
MLB Chicago White Sox +1.5 · +15.8% edge
✅ WON
+$5.72
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Final: Kansas City Royals 2 @ Chicago White Sox 6. Model projected: Chicago White Sox 4.1, Kansas City Royals 4.5. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Anthony Kay FIP 5.46 / xFIP 4.75 | K/9: 6.4
✦ Kris Bubic FIP 3.5 / xFIP 3.79 | K/9: 9.2
MLB Philadelphia Phillies ML · +12.0% edge
✅ WON
+$4.41
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
Final: Philadelphia Phillies 3 @ Boston Red Sox 1. Model projected: Boston Red Sox 3.4, Philadelphia Phillies 3.9. Model's directional call was correct.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Ranger Suarez: ERA 2.77 vs xFIP 3.79 over 39 IP (severity 1.02) — Boston Red Sox ML may be overpriced by market
✦ 🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Boston (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
MLB Over 7.5 · +11.1% edge
❌ LOST
$4.74
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
Final: Chicago Cubs 2 @ Atlanta Braves 0. Model projected: Atlanta Braves 4.8, Chicago Cubs 3.8. Actual total 2 vs line 7.5 (under by 5.5). Model projected 8.6.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Chris Sale: ERA 2.20 vs xFIP 2.84 over 49 IP (severity 0.43) — Atlanta Braves ML may be overpriced by market
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Ben Brown: ERA 1.82 vs xFIP 3.48 over 29 IP (severity 1.59) — Chicago Cubs ML may be overpriced by market
PARLAY Athletics +1.5 + Under 9.5 · +16.8% edge
✅ WON
+$5.34
Athletics +1.5 + Under 9.5
✅ Athletics +1.5 (St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics) · ✅ Under 9.5 (St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics)
PARLAY Chicago White Sox +1.5 + Over 7.5 · +15.5% edge
✅ WON
+$4.78
Chicago White Sox +1.5 + Over 7.5
✅ Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox) · ✅ Over 7.5 (Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox)
🏀 NBA 3 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
San Antonio Spurs -5.5 ↓
NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
HIGH
Mkt 50.7% → Model 79.5% +28.8% edge ▾
Market
50.7%
Model
79.5%
Edge
+28.8%
Why this pick ▾
Injury drag on Minnesota Timberwolves (2.6%) further shifts the model's probability. Projected San Antonio Spurs by 2 points (Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106).
Context & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves injury impact (-2.6%)
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | OffRtg 118.0 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 3.4
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | OffRtg 119.8 | DefRtg 111.5 | NetRtg 8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves last 14 days: NetRtg -13.4 | Win% 40%
San Antonio Spurs last 14 days: NetRtg 13.4 | Win% 60%
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Rest days — Minnesota Timberwolves: 2 | San Antonio Spurs: 2
Home court advantage: Minnesota Timberwolves (+2%)
San Antonio Spurs injuries benefit Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.9%)
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Terrence Shannon Jr. (G): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Donte DiVincenzo (G): OUT
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — David Jones Garcia (F): OUT
Detroit Pistons +4.5 ↓
NBA Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
HIGH
Mkt 50.2% → Model 72.6% +22.4% edge ▾
Market
50.2%
Model
72.6%
Edge
+22.4%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge based on net rating differential and situational adjustments. Projected Detroit Pistons by 2 points (Cleveland Cavaliers 103 — Detroit Pistons 105).
Context & Stats
Model projected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 103 — Detroit Pistons 105
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | OffRtg 119.5 | DefRtg 115.4 | NetRtg 4.1
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | OffRtg 117.8 | DefRtg 109.6 | NetRtg 8.2
Cleveland Cavaliers last 14 days: NetRtg 1.4 | Win% 57%
Detroit Pistons last 14 days: NetRtg 5.1 | Win% 57%
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Rest days — Cleveland Cavaliers: 1 | Detroit Pistons: 1
Home court advantage: Cleveland Cavaliers (+2%)
Detroit Pistons injuries benefit Cleveland Cavaliers (+1.3%)
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Duncan Robinson (F): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Kevin Huerter (G): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Caris LeVert (G): DAY-TO-DAY
Over 210.5 ↓
NBA Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
HIGH
Mkt 52.3% → Model 74.0% +21.7% edge ▾
Market
52.3%
Model
74.0%
Edge
+21.7%
Why this pick ▾
The model projects 218.9 combined points vs the market line of 210.5, a 8.4-point lean toward the over. Projected: Cleveland Cavaliers 110 — Detroit Pistons 111.
Context & Stats
Model projected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 110 — Detroit Pistons 111
Model expected total: 218.9 vs market line 210.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Cleveland Cavaliers off (blended): 119.5 vs Detroit Pistons def (blended): 109.6
Detroit Pistons off (blended): 117.8 vs Cleveland Cavaliers def (blended): 115.4
⚕ Detroit Pistons injury drag: −0.9 pts from totals projection
Props
▾
Luke Kornet
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 2.5 53.7% · Model 5.7 · +39.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 2.5
Book Odds
53.7%
Model Proj
5.7
Edge
+39.1%
Draftkings: Over 2.5 at 53.7%. Model projects 5.7.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Luke Kornet at 5.7 rebounds vs the market line of 2.5 (+3.2 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 2.5 at 53.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.7 → edge +39.2%
Avg game pace: 118.9 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Luke Kornet: 6.5 PPG / 6.1 RPG / 1.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Dennis Schroder
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Assists Over
HIGH
Over 2.5 54.1% · Model 4.7 · +33.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 2.5
Book Odds
54.1%
Model Proj
4.7
Edge
+33.4%
Draftkings: Over 2.5 at 54.1%. Model projects 4.7.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Dennis Schroder at 4.7 assists vs the market line of 2.5 (+2.2 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 2.5 at 54.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.7 → edge +33.4%
Detroit Pistons scores 117.8 PPG (above avg → more assist opportunities)
Game total: model 218.9 vs market 210.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.04x)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Dennis Schroder: 10.8 PPG / 2.7 RPG / 4.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 52.6% · Model 5.0 · +25.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
52.6%
Model Proj
5.0
Edge
+25.9%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 52.6%. Model projects 5.0.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Keldon Johnson at 5.0 rebounds vs the market line of 3.5 (+1.5 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 3.5 at 52.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.0 → edge +25.9%
Avg game pace: 118.9 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Julius Randle
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Assists Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 55.6% · Model 5.1 · +23.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
55.6%
Model Proj
5.1
Edge
+23.6%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 55.6%. Model projects 5.1.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Julius Randle at 5.1 assists vs the market line of 3.5 (+1.6 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 3.5 at 55.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.1 → edge +23.6%
San Antonio Spurs scores 119.8 PPG (above avg → more assist opportunities)
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Julius Randle: 21.1 PPG / 6.7 RPG / 5.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Jalen Duren
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 7.5 58.5% · Model 11.6 · +23.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 7.5
Book Odds
58.5%
Model Proj
11.6
Edge
+23.3%
Draftkings: Over 7.5 at 58.5%. Model projects 11.6.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Jalen Duren at 11.6 rebounds vs the market line of 7.5 (+4.1 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 7.5 at 58.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.6 → edge +23.3%
Avg game pace: 118.6 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
Game total: model 218.9 vs market 210.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.04x)
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Jalen Duren: 0.0 PPG / 10.5 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Ausar Thompson
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Blocks Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 38.2% · Model 1.98 · +23.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
38.2%
Model Proj
1.98
Edge
+23.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 38.2%. Model projects 1.98.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Ausar Thompson at 2.0 blocks vs the market line of 1.5 (+0.5 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 38.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 1.98 → edge +23.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers scores 119.5 PPG (above avg → more block opportunities)
Game total: model 218.9 vs market 210.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.04x)
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Ausar Thompson: 9.9 PPG / 5.7 RPG / 3.1 APG / 2.00 SPG / 1.83 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↓
MLB Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
HIGH
Mkt 56.0% → Model 91.6% +35.6% edge ▾
Market
56.0%
Model
91.6%
Edge
+35.6%
Why this pick ▾
A strong pitching mismatch drives this pick — Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies) (3.39 xFIP) holds a meaningful advantage over Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks) (5.34 xFIP). Injury drag further tilts the matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks (3.7%). Model projects Colorado Rockies by 1.1 runs (Colorado Rockies 5.9 — Arizona Diamondbacks 4.8).
Context & Stats
🔵 Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies): ERA 6.0 | FIP 5.17 / xFIP 3.39 | K/9 8.4 | BB/9 2.4 | IP 30
🔴 Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): ERA 7.62 | FIP 6.74 / xFIP 5.34 | K/9 6.9 | BB/9 6.2 | IP 26
Model projected score: Colorado Rockies 5.9 — Arizona Diamondbacks 4.8
Venue: Coors Field — park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly)
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-3.7%)
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.714 | AVG 0.248 | R/G 4.27
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.686 | AVG 0.234 | R/G 4.26
Bullpen ERA — Colorado Rockies: 4.71 (WHIP 1.41) | Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.48 (WHIP 1.18)
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Chase Dollander (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Denver): 76°F | Wind 8 mph ENE (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Detroit Tigers +1.5 ↓
MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
HIGH
Mkt 59.0% → Model 82.4% +23.3% edge ▾
Market
59.0%
Model
82.4%
Edge
+23.3%
Why this pick ▾
The model builds a strong edge from a combination of pitching quality, roster health, and situational factors. Model projects Detroit Tigers by 0.2 runs (Detroit Tigers 3.9 — Toronto Blue Jays 3.7).
Context & Stats
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Trey Yesavage: ERA 0.68 vs xFIP 3.74 over 13 IP (severity 0.32) — Toronto Blue Jays ML may be overpriced by market
🔵 Brenan Hanifee (Detroit Tigers): ERA 1.08 | FIP 4.19 / xFIP 4.03 | K/9 4.4 | BB/9 1.1 | IP 8
🔴 Trey Yesavage (Toronto Blue Jays): ERA 0.68 | FIP 2.05 / xFIP 3.74 | K/9 10.3 | BB/9 3.4 | IP 13
Model projected score: Detroit Tigers 3.9 — Toronto Blue Jays 3.7
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Shane Livensparger (near-neutral tendencies)
Venue: Comerica Park — park factor 0.95 (pitcher-friendly)
⚠ Detroit Tigers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Toronto Blue Jays schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Detroit Tigers offense: OPS 0.713 | AVG 0.242 | R/G 4.16
Toronto Blue Jays offense: OPS 0.688 | AVG 0.247 | R/G 4.19
Bullpen ERA — Detroit Tigers: 4.37 (WHIP 1.43) | Toronto Blue Jays: 4.09 (WHIP 1.43)
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Dugan Darnell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Geovanny Jesus Planchart (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Chay Yeager (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — CJ Stubbs (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Javen Coleman (P): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Detroit): 65°F | Wind 11 mph SW (blowing in) | Precip 0%
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
MLB Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals
HIGH
Mkt 62.2% → Model 82.1% +20.0% edge ▾
Market
62.2%
Model
82.1%
Edge
+20.0%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge against Kansas City Royals, driven by a significant ERA trap on Michael Wacha — 2.63 ERA vs 4.23 xFIP in 51 innings suggests regression risk the market hasn't fully priced. Model projects St. Louis Cardinals by 0.2 runs (St. Louis Cardinals 4.2 — Kansas City Royals 4.0).
Context & Stats
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Michael Wacha: ERA 2.63 vs xFIP 4.23 over 51 IP (severity 1.60) — Kansas City Royals ML may be overpriced by market
🔵 Dustin May (St. Louis Cardinals): ERA 4.85 | FIP 3.7 / xFIP 3.82 | K/9 6.8 | BB/9 2.3 | IP 42
🔴 Michael Wacha (Kansas City Royals): ERA 2.63 | FIP 3.83 / xFIP 4.23 | K/9 7.4 | BB/9 3.0 | IP 51
Model projected score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.2 — Kansas City Royals 4.0
Venue: Busch Stadium — park factor 0.98 (pitcher-friendly)
⚠ St. Louis Cardinals schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
St. Louis Cardinals injury impact (-2.2%)
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-1.2%)
St. Louis Cardinals offense: OPS 0.713 | AVG 0.240 | R/G 4.63
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.708 | AVG 0.240 | R/G 4.11
Bullpen ERA — St. Louis Cardinals: 4.64 (WHIP 1.44) | Kansas City Royals: 4.53 (WHIP 1.44)
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Packy Naughton (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Sem Robberse (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Victor Santos (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Ixan Henderson (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Zack Thompson (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (St. Louis): 83°F | Wind 12 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 0%
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Under 10.5
MLB San Francisco Giants @ Athletics
HIGH
Mkt 53.3% → Model 72.2% +18.8% edge ▾
Market
53.3%
Model
72.2%
Edge
+18.8%
Why this pick ▾
The model projects 8.4 combined runs vs the market line of 10.0, a 1.6-run lean toward the under. Projected: Athletics 4.2 — San Francisco Giants 3.8. Note: Aaron Civale's 2.59 ERA vs 4.31 xFIP over 41 IP is an ERA trap signal that may affect run distribution.
Context & Stats
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Aaron Civale: ERA 2.59 vs xFIP 4.31 over 41 IP (severity 1.72) — Athletics ML may be overpriced by market
🔵 Aaron Civale (Athletics): ERA 2.59 | FIP 3.81 / xFIP 4.31 | K/9 7.2 | BB/9 2.8 | IP 41
🔴 Tyler Mahle (San Francisco Giants): ERA 5.18 | FIP 5.14 / xFIP 3.69 | K/9 9.2 | BB/9 4.4 | IP 41
Model projected score: Athletics 4.2 — San Francisco Giants 3.8
Model expected total: 8.4 vs line 10.0
Venue: Sutter Health Park — neutral park
⚠ Athletics schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ San Francisco Giants schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
No significant injuries reported
Athletics offense: OPS 0.734 | AVG 0.252 | R/G 4.42
San Francisco Giants offense: OPS 0.650 | AVG 0.240 | R/G 3.34
Bullpen ERA — Athletics: 4.24 (WHIP 1.43) | San Francisco Giants: 3.56 (WHIP 1.38)
🌤 Weather (Sutter): 81°F | Wind 10 mph NNW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Minnesota Twins +1.5
MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
HIGH
Mkt 60.6% → Model 79.3% +18.7% edge ▾
Market
60.6%
Model
79.3%
Edge
+18.7%
Why this pick ▾
The model builds a strong edge from a combination of pitching quality, roster health, and situational factors. Model projects Milwaukee Brewers by 0.0 runs (Minnesota Twins 4.0 — Milwaukee Brewers 4.0).
Context & Stats
🔵 Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins): ERA 3.43 | FIP 2.93 / xFIP 3.49 | K/9 9.2 | BB/9 2.6 | IP 44
🔴 Coleman Crow (Milwaukee Brewers): ERA 3.38 | FIP 2.22 / xFIP 4.00 | K/9 7.1 | BB/9 1.8 | IP 5
Model projected score: Minnesota Twins 4.0 — Milwaukee Brewers 4.0
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Rob Drake (near-neutral tendencies)
Venue: Target Field — park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly)
⚠ Minnesota Twins schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Milwaukee Brewers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Minnesota Twins injury impact (-2.4%)
Milwaukee Brewers injury impact (-1.4%)
Minnesota Twins offense: OPS 0.710 | AVG 0.236 | R/G 4.80
Milwaukee Brewers offense: OPS 0.695 | AVG 0.245 | R/G 5.10
Bullpen ERA — Minnesota Twins: 5.46 (WHIP 1.60) | Milwaukee Brewers: 4.37 (WHIP 1.40)
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Byron Buxton (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Cory Lewis (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Julian Merryweather (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Matt Canterino (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Walker Jenkins (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — Christian Yelich (DH): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — Jacob Misiorowski (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — Gerson Garabito (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — J.B. Bukauskas (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Minneapolis): 85°F | Wind 10 mph W (blowing in) | Precip 0%
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Matt Olson
MLB  Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 41.8% · Model 2.67 · +39.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
41.8%
Model Proj
2.67
Edge
+39.4%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 41.8%. Model: 2.67.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Matt Olson at 2.67 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +1.17 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 41.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.67 → edge +39.4%
Game total: model 8.6 vs market 7.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.10x)
Matt Olson: AVG 0.294 | OBP 0.371 | H/G 1.14 | TB/G 2.43 | HR/G 0.318 | HRR/G 2.79 | K% 24.2% (194 PA)
Facing Connelly Early: FIP 4.17 / xFIP 3.99 | WHIP 1.23 | K/9 8.3
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
Nolan Schanuel
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Hits Over
HIGH
Over 0.5 59.0% · Model 1.35 · +32.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 0.5
Book Odds
59.0%
Model Proj
1.35
Edge
+32.1%
Draftkings: Over 0.5 at 59.0%. Model: 1.35.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Nolan Schanuel at 1.35 Hits vs the line of 0.5 — a strong +0.85 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 0.5 at 59.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 1.35 → edge +32.1%
Nolan Schanuel: AVG 0.261 | OBP 0.310 | H/G 1.02 | TB/G 1.50 | HR/G 0.075 | HRR/G 1.88 | K% 16.4% (171 PA)
Facing Blake Snell: FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.30 | WHIP 2.67 | K/9 15.0
Park factor 0.99 at Angel Stadium
Jorge Soler
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Hits Over
HIGH
Over 0.5 55.4% · Model 0.98 · +31.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 0.5
Book Odds
55.4%
Model Proj
0.98
Edge
+31.6%
Draftkings: Over 0.5 at 55.4%. Model: 0.98.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Jorge Soler at 0.98 Hits vs the line of 0.5 — a strong +0.48 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 0.5 at 55.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 0.98 → edge +31.6%
K% matchup: batter 32.4% vs pitcher 15.0 K/9 → -7.2% suppression
Jorge Soler: AVG 0.221 | OBP 0.318 | H/G 0.80 | TB/G 1.57 | HR/G 0.200 | HRR/G 2.00 | K% 32.4% (170 PA)
Facing Blake Snell: FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.30 | WHIP 2.67 | K/9 15.0
Park factor 0.99 at Angel Stadium
Zach Neto
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Hits Over
HIGH
Over 0.5 58.0% · Model 1.1 · +31.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 0.5
Book Odds
58.0%
Model Proj
1.1
Edge
+31.3%
Draftkings: Over 0.5 at 58.0%. Model: 1.10.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Zach Neto at 1.10 Hits vs the line of 0.5 — a strong +0.60 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 0.5 at 58.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 1.10 → edge +31.3%
K% matchup: batter 31.0% vs pitcher 15.0 K/9 → -6.2% suppression
Zach Neto: AVG 0.224 | OBP 0.330 | H/G 0.89 | TB/G 1.61 | HR/G 0.159 | HRR/G 2.00 | K% 31.0% (203 PA)
Facing Blake Snell: FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.30 | WHIP 2.67 | K/9 15.0
Park factor 0.99 at Angel Stadium
Mike Trout
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Hits Over
HIGH
Over 0.5 59.5% · Model 1.14 · +30.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 0.5
Book Odds
59.5%
Model Proj
1.14
Edge
+30.9%
Draftkings: Over 0.5 at 59.5%. Model: 1.14.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Mike Trout at 1.14 Hits vs the line of 0.5 — a strong +0.64 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 0.5 at 59.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 1.14 → edge +30.9%
Mike Trout: AVG 0.248 | OBP 0.410 | H/G 0.88 | TB/G 1.79 | HR/G 0.256 | HRR/G 2.19 | K% 26.2% (195 PA)
Facing Blake Snell: FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.30 | WHIP 2.67 | K/9 15.0
Park factor 0.99 at Angel Stadium
Drake Baldwin
MLB  Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 46.7% · Model 2.28 · +30.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
46.7%
Model Proj
2.28
Edge
+30.4%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 46.7%. Model: 2.28.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Drake Baldwin at 2.28 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +0.78 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 46.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.28 → edge +30.4%
Game total: model 8.6 vs market 7.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.10x)
Drake Baldwin: AVG 0.294 | OBP 0.375 | H/G 1.18 | TB/G 2.07 | HR/G 0.250 | HRR/G 2.77 | K% 21.5% (200 PA)
Facing Connelly Early: FIP 4.17 / xFIP 3.99 | WHIP 1.23 | K/9 8.3
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
🏈 NFL no games today
🏈 No NFL games scheduled today.
Singles
▾
🏀 WNBA 4 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Toronto Tempo
🏀 WNBA  ML  ·  Toronto Tempo @ Los Angeles Sparks
HIGH
Mkt 26.3% → Model 38.9% +12.6% edge ▾
Market
26.3%
Model
38.9%
Edge
+12.6%
Why this pick ▾
Although Toronto Tempo is missing key contributors (22% pts-share), Toronto Tempo's back-to-back fatigue and the underlying net rating advantage still favor Toronto Tempo.
Context & Stats
Los Angeles Sparks lineup impact (-17.7%)
Toronto Tempo injuries benefit Los Angeles Sparks (+21.6%)
⚕ Los Angeles Sparks — Ariel Atkins (13.3 PPG, 17% pts share): OUT
⚕ Los Angeles Sparks — Sania Feagin (1.2 PPG, 2% pts share): OUT
⚕ Toronto Tempo — Isabelle Harrison (7.7 PPG, 10% pts share): OUT
⚕ Toronto Tempo — Temi Fagbenle (4.9 PPG, 6% pts share): OUT
Toronto Tempo on back-to-back — favors Los Angeles Sparks (+4%)
Los Angeles Sparks: 78.0 PPG | FG 42.2% | AST/TO 0.63 | NetRtg +14.0
Toronto Tempo: 75.5 PPG | FG 35.6% | AST/TO 1.11 | NetRtg +13.8
Rest — Los Angeles Sparks: 0 day(s) | Toronto Tempo: 1 day(s)
Home court: Los Angeles Sparks (+2%)
Indiana Fever
🏀 WNBA  ML  ·  Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever
MEDIUM
Mkt 76.3% → Model 90.0% +13.7% edge ▾
Market
76.3%
Model
90.0%
Edge
+13.7%
Why this pick ▾
Key absences for Washington Mystics (13% of their scoring output) shift win probability toward Indiana Fever.
Context & Stats
Washington Mystics injuries benefit Indiana Fever (+12.9%)
⚕ Washington Mystics — Michaela Onyenwere (6.9 PPG, 9% pts share): OUT
Indiana Fever: 95.5 PPG | FG 50.7% | AST/TO 1.53 | NetRtg +25.5
Washington Mystics: 80.5 PPG | FG 41.0% | AST/TO 1.23 | NetRtg +15.8
Rest — Indiana Fever: 0 day(s) | Washington Mystics: 4 day(s)
Home court: Indiana Fever (+2%)
Chicago Sky
🏀 WNBA  ML  ·  Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury
MEDIUM
Mkt 38.7% → Model 42.5% +3.8% edge ▾
Market
38.7%
Model
42.5%
Edge
+3.8%
Why this pick ▾
Although Chicago Sky is missing key contributors (30% pts-share), Phoenix Mercury's back-to-back fatigue and the underlying net rating advantage still favor Chicago Sky.
Context & Stats
Phoenix Mercury lineup impact (-25.6%)
Chicago Sky injuries benefit Phoenix Mercury (+30.0%)
⚕ Chicago Sky — DiJonai Carrington (8.5 PPG, 10% pts share): OUT
⚕ Chicago Sky — Courtney Vandersloot (10.0 PPG, 12% pts share): OUT
⚕ Chicago Sky — Azura Stevens (10.1 PPG, 12% pts share): OUT
⚕ Phoenix Mercury — Monique Akoa Makani (7.7 PPG, 9% pts share): OUT
⚕ Phoenix Mercury — Sami Whitcomb (7.2 PPG, 8% pts share): OUT
Phoenix Mercury on back-to-back (-4%)
Phoenix Mercury: 87.3 PPG | FG 44.6% | AST/TO 1.80 | NetRtg +22.8
Chicago Sky: 83.5 PPG | FG 42.0% | AST/TO 2.41 | NetRtg +21.8
Rest — Phoenix Mercury: 1 day(s) | Chicago Sky: 0 day(s)
Home court: Phoenix Mercury (+2%)
Las Vegas Aces
🏀 WNBA  ML  ·  Las Vegas Aces @ Connecticut Sun
MEDIUM
Mkt 88.9% → Model 90.0% +1.1% edge ▾
Market
88.9%
Model
90.0%
Edge
+1.1%
Why this pick ▾
Although Las Vegas Aces is missing key contributors (11% pts-share), Connecticut Sun's back-to-back fatigue and the underlying net rating advantage still favor Las Vegas Aces.
Context & Stats
Connecticut Sun lineup impact (-16.8%)
Las Vegas Aces injuries benefit Connecticut Sun (+10.8%)
⚕ Connecticut Sun — Olivia Nelson-Ododa (5.1 PPG, 7% pts share): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Connecticut Sun — Leila Lacan (10.4 PPG, 14% pts share): OUT
⚕ Las Vegas Aces — Dana Evans (6.3 PPG, 7% pts share): OUT
⚕ Las Vegas Aces — Janiah Barker: OUT
Connecticut Sun on back-to-back (-4%)
Las Vegas Aces on back-to-back — favors Connecticut Sun (+4%)
Connecticut Sun: 75.3 PPG | FG 37.2% | AST/TO 1.22 | NetRtg +6.3
Las Vegas Aces: 89.7 PPG | FG 52.4% | AST/TO 1.48 | NetRtg +32.2
Rest — Connecticut Sun: 1 day(s) | Las Vegas Aces: 1 day(s)
Home court: Connecticut Sun (+2%)
⚽ MLS no games today
⚽ No MLS games scheduled today.
Singles
▾
🏏 IPL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Gujarat Titans
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Gujarat Titans @ Kolkata Knight Riders
📅 loading…
HIGH
Mkt 55.0% → Model 65.7% +10.7% edge ▾
Market
55.0%
Model
65.7%
Edge
+10.7%
Why this pick ▾
Gujarat Titans's 44% blended win-rate edge overcomes Kolkata Knight Riders's home venue advantage, giving the model a solid edge.
Context & Stats
Home venue advantage: Kolkata Knight Riders (+2.5%)
Short rest: Kolkata Knight Riders (1d since last match, -1.5%)
Form edge: Gujarat Titans (blended win-rate gap 44%)
Hot/cold streak: Gujarat Titans hot (50% last 7d) vs Kolkata Knight Riders cold (100%)
Rest days — Kolkata Knight Riders: 1 | Gujarat Titans: 44
Kolkata Knight Riders: 3W-6L (9 matches) | Win% 33% | Recent Win% 50% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin -10
Gujarat Titans: 8W-4L (12 matches) | Win% 67% | Recent Win% 100% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin +5
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Chennai Super Kings
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Chennai Super Kings @ Lucknow Super Giants
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Final: Lucknow Super Giants won by 7 wkts  ✗ LOST
Mkt 57.7% → Model 68.6% +10.9% edge ▾
Market
57.7%
Model
68.6%
Edge
+10.9%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Today's Card top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↑
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
+35.6%
—
 34
19.7%
$19.73
+$14.27
Robinhood Action — Colorado Rockies +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢56.0
Buy contracts34
Total cost (incl. commission)$19.73
Profit if win+$14.27
Loss if lose-$19.73
Expected value +$11.42
2
San Antonio Spurs -5.5 ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
+28.8%
—
 26
13.7%
$13.70
+$12.30
Robinhood Action — San Antonio Spurs -5.5
Contract price (est.)¢50.7
Buy contracts26
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.70
Profit if win+$12.30
Loss if lose-$13.70
Expected value +$6.97
3
Detroit Tigers +1.5 ↑
MLB
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
+23.3%
—
 22
13.4%
$13.43
+$8.57
Robinhood Action — Detroit Tigers +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢59.0
Buy contracts22
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.43
Profit if win+$8.57
Loss if lose-$13.43
Expected value +$4.69
4
Detroit Pistons +4.5 ↑
NBA
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
+22.4%
—
 20
10.4%
$10.44
+$9.56
Robinhood Action — Detroit Pistons +4.5
Contract price (est.)¢50.2
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.44
Profit if win+$9.56
Loss if lose-$10.44
Expected value +$4.07
5
Over 210.5 ↑
NBA
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
+21.7%
—
 19
10.3%
$10.32
+$8.68
Robinhood Action — Over 210.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.3
Buy contracts19
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.32
Profit if win+$8.68
Loss if lose-$10.32
Expected value +$3.75
P1
San Antonio Spurs (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
Parlay
+32.7%
—
 17
5.6%
$5.60
+$11.40
Robinhood Action — San Antonio Spurs (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢30.9
Buy contracts17
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.60
Profit if win+$11.40
P2
Detroit Pistons +4.5 + Over 210.5
Parlay
+27.5%
—
 15
4.2%
$4.24
+$10.76
Robinhood Action — Detroit Pistons +4.5 + Over 210.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.3
Buy contracts15
Total cost (incl. commission)$4.24
Profit if win+$10.76
Deployed $77.46 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $22.54
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
212
Model Hit Rate
45.3%
Avg Error
-1.9
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 47 40.4% 21.1 17.7 -3.4
Rebounds 36 41.7% 8.9 7.2 -1.7
Assists 14 35.7% 7.5 5.9 -1.7
Strikeouts 24 45.8% 6.2 4.8 -1.5
Hits 26 69.2% 1.1 1.2 +0.2
HRR 42 45.2% 3.6 1.3 -2.3
Total Bases 15 33.3% 3.4 1.8 -1.6
Steals 3 33.3% 2.7 1.3 -1.3
Blocks 5 60.0% 2.6 1.4 -1.2
HIGH confidence
45.4%
74H / 89M (163 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
NBA
41.0%
43H / 62M (105 settled)
Avg err: -2.4
MLB
49.5%
53H / 54M (107 settled)
Avg err: -1.4
▶ Hit Rate Trend (212 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-05 05-14
Model Performance
Record
72W–62L
Win Rate
53.7%
Total PnL
$+119.84
ROI
10.8%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
70W–61L (53.4%)
$+127.43
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
🏀 NBA
21W–16L (56.8%)
$+51.82
⚾ MLB
36W–24L (60.0%)
$+10.72
PARLAYS
15W–22L (40.5%)
$+57.30
Watchlist Tracking  — no budget allocated, W-L only
🏒 NHL
7W–3L (70.0%)
10 picks tracked
🏏 IPL
3W–2L (60.0%)
5 picks tracked
🏀 WNBA
1W–1L (50.0%)
2 picks tracked
⚽ MLS
0W–0L
No picks settled yet
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (135 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+119.84 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-05 05-14
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-05 05-14
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 24 60.5% 60.9% +0.4%
15%+ 108 68.7% 50.9% -17.8%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.