Daily Betting Report

Sunday, April 26, 2026 · Generated April 26, 2026 at 08:13 PM PDT
NBA: 0 games  |  MLB: 0 games  |  Budget: $100
🏀
No NBA games today.
⚾
No MLB games today.
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Under 15.0 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
🕐 1:06 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Market
53.6%
Model
98.9%
Edge
+45.4%
Key Signals
Ryne Nelson FIP: 5.13 | K/9: 8.9
Michael King FIP: 3.31 | K/9: 8.6
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
⚠ San Diego Padres schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.1 — San Diego Padres 4.6
Model expected total: 8.8 vs line 15.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Ryne Nelson (home): ERA 6.97 | FIP 5.13 | K/9 8.9 | BB/9 4.0 | IP 20
🔴 Michael King (away): ERA 2.28 | FIP 3.31 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 4.6 | IP 27
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.717 | AVG 0.249 | R/G 4.62
San Diego Padres offense: OPS 0.683 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.46
Bullpen ERA — Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.44 | San Diego Padres: 3.63
Venue: Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.15 | San Diego Padres 4.64
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢48.8
Buy contracts48
Total cost (incl. commission)$24.37
Profit if win+$23.63
Loss if lose-$24.37
Expected value +$23.07
Over 207.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
🕐 6:40 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Market
52.4%
Model
92.9%
Edge
+40.5%
Key Signals
Model expected total: 228.1 vs market line 207.5
Combined pace: 100.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Houston Rockets OffRtg: 115.2 vs Los Angeles Lakers DefRtg: 114.6
Los Angeles Lakers OffRtg: 116.3 vs Houston Rockets DefRtg: 110.0
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.4
Buy contracts38
Total cost (incl. commission)$20.66
Profit if win+$17.34
Loss if lose-$20.66
Expected value +$14.65
Houston Astros ↓
MLB  Moneyline  ·  New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
🕐 11:11 AM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Market
44.9%
Model
85.0%
Edge
+40.1%
Key Signals
Spencer Arrighetti FIP: 3.02 | K/9: 10.6
Luis Gil FIP: 7.04 | K/9: 5.4
Model projected score: Houston Astros 6.7 — New York Yankees 3.9
Research & Stats
🔵 Spencer Arrighetti (home): ERA 2.45 | FIP 3.02 | K/9 10.6 | BB/9 6.5 | IP 11
🔴 Luis Gil (away): ERA 4.11 | FIP 7.04 | K/9 5.4 | BB/9 4.8 | IP 15
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.782 | AVG 0.259 | R/G 5.14
New York Yankees offense: OPS 0.765 | AVG 0.234 | R/G 5.26
Bullpen ERA — Houston Astros: 6.04 | New York Yankees: 3.10
Venue: Daikin Park — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Houston Astros 6.74 | New York Yankees 3.93
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢45.8
Buy contracts37
Total cost (incl. commission)$17.67
Profit if win+$19.33
Loss if lose-$17.67
Expected value +$13.78
Over 8.5 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
🕐 10:41 AM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Market
53.5%
Model
88.4%
Edge
+34.9%
Key Signals
Griffin Jax FIP: 7.64 | K/9: 10.0
Simeon Woods Richardson FIP: 5.94 | K/9: 4.6
Model projected score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.5 — Minnesota Twins 6.2
Model expected total: 11.7 vs line 8.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Griffin Jax (home): ERA 8.0 | FIP 7.64 | K/9 10.0 | BB/9 7.0 | IP 9
🔴 Simeon Woods Richardson (away): ERA 5.96 | FIP 5.94 | K/9 4.6 | BB/9 3.6 | IP 25
Tampa Bay Rays offense: OPS 0.725 | AVG 0.256 | R/G 4.92
Minnesota Twins offense: OPS 0.704 | AVG 0.229 | R/G 4.81
Bullpen ERA — Tampa Bay Rays: 4.46 | Minnesota Twins: 4.31
Venue: Tropicana Field — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Tampa Bay Rays 5.55 | Minnesota Twins 6.18
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢53.5
Buy contracts33
Total cost (incl. commission)$18.31
Profit if win+$14.69
Loss if lose-$18.31
Expected value +$10.86
Over 218.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers
🕐 12:40 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Market
52.4%
Model
83.8%
Edge
+31.4%
Key Signals
Model expected total: 231.3 vs market line 217.5
Combined pace: 100.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Portland Trail Blazers OffRtg: 115.5 vs San Antonio Spurs DefRtg: 111.5
San Antonio Spurs OffRtg: 119.8 vs Portland Trail Blazers DefRtg: 115.8
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.4
Buy contracts27
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.68
Profit if win+$12.32
Loss if lose-$14.68
Expected value +$7.45
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 63.8% · Edge: +40.7%
🔒 Locked HIGH
Detroit Tigers (Moneyline)
Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds · Model: 75.1% · Edge: +24.6%
Houston Astros (Moneyline)
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros · Model: 85.0% · Edge: +39.2%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢23.1
Buy contracts25
Total cost$6.27
Profit if win+$18.73
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 66.1% · Edge: +36.9%
🔒 Locked HIGH
San Antonio Spurs (Moneyline)
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers · Model: 77.7% · Edge: +14.0%
Houston Astros (Moneyline)
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros · Model: 85.0% · Edge: +39.2%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢29.1
Buy contracts20
Total cost$6.23
Profit if win+$13.77
Props Research (verify Robinhood price before betting)
Donovan Clingan
NBA  Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Rebounds Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Model Line
11.6
Margin
+4.6
Confidence
HIGH
Key Signals
Donovan Clingan averages 11.6 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | PPG 115.5 | OPPG 111.5 (opp) | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers recent (14d): PPG 104.0 | OPPG 111.3 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 109.7 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Portland Trail Blazers: 0d | San Antonio Spurs: 0d
Search 'Donovan Clingan rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.6 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers · Rebounds Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Model Line
11.5
Margin
+4.5
Confidence
HIGH
Key Signals
Victor Wembanyama averages 11.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 115.8 (opp) | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs recent (14d): PPG 111.3 | OPPG 104.0 | Win% 67%
Model projected team pts: 115.2 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 0d | Portland Trail Blazers: 0d
Search 'Victor Wembanyama rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers · Points Over
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Model Line
25.1
Margin
+7.1
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Victor Wembanyama season avg: 25.0 PPG
Portland Trail Blazers allows 115.8 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
⚠ San Antonio Spurs on B2B — consider reducing line or fading
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 115.8 (opp) | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs recent (14d): PPG 111.3 | OPPG 104.0 | Win% 67%
Model projected team pts: 115.2 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 0d | Portland Trail Blazers: 0d
Search 'Victor Wembanyama points' on Robinhood. Model line: 25.1 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 25.
Jaylen Brown
NBA  Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers · Points Over
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Model Line
28.8
Margin
+10.8
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Jaylen Brown season avg: 28.7 PPG
Philadelphia 76ers allows 116.1 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
Research & Stats
Boston Celtics: 56W-26L | PPG 114.9 | OPPG 116.1 (opp) | Net +7.7
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | Net -0.2
Boston Celtics recent (14d): PPG 109.3 | OPPG 100.7 | Win% 67%
Model projected team pts: 113.0 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Boston Celtics: 1d | Philadelphia 76ers: 1d
Search 'Jaylen Brown points' on Robinhood. Model line: 28.8 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 28.
Tyrese Maxey
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics · Points Over
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Model Line
28.2
Margin
+10.2
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Tyrese Maxey season avg: 28.3 PPG
Boston Celtics allows 107.2 PPG — average defense
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 107.2 (opp) | Net -0.2
Boston Celtics: 56W-26L | Net +7.7
Philadelphia 76ers recent (14d): PPG 100.7 | OPPG 109.3 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 107.2 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1d | Boston Celtics: 1d
Search 'Tyrese Maxey points' on Robinhood. Model line: 28.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 28.
Kevin Durant
NBA  Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers · Points Over
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Model Line
26.0
Margin
+8.0
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Kevin Durant season avg: 26.0 PPG
Los Angeles Lakers allows 114.6 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
⚠ Houston Rockets on B2B — consider reducing line or fading
Research & Stats
Houston Rockets: 52W-30L | PPG 115.2 | OPPG 114.6 (opp) | Net +5.2
Los Angeles Lakers: 53W-29L | Net +1.8
Houston Rockets recent (14d): PPG 100.0 | OPPG 106.7 | Win% 0%
Model projected team pts: 108.9 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Houston Rockets: 0d | Los Angeles Lakers: 0d
Search 'Kevin Durant points' on Robinhood. Model line: 26.0 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 26.
Tampa Bay Rays top-order batters
MLB  Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Model Line
1.0
Margin
+1.44
Confidence
HIGH
Key Signals
Pitcher FIP 5.94 — above avg (4.20), favorable for hitters
Model projects ~4.0 hits in 5.5 inn
Target: Tampa Bay Rays leadoff, #2, and #3 batters for 1+ hit props
Research & Stats
Simeon Woods Richardson: ERA 5.96 | FIP 5.94 | K/9 4.6 | BB/9 3.6 | HR/9 1.79
Season IP: 25 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Tropicana Field (park factor 1.00)
FIP 5.94 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.0 hits in 5.5 inn
Simeon Woods Richardson (FIP 5.94) is hittable. On Robinhood, search 1+ hits over props for Tampa Bay Rays's #1–#3 batters in the lineup. Model projects ~4.0 total hits in 5.5 inn.
Landen Roupp
MLB  San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
6.3
Margin
+3.3
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 10.3 → projects 6.3 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.24 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 27 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Landen Roupp: ERA 2.28 | FIP 2.24 | K/9 10.3 | BB/9 4.0 | HR/9 0.00
Season IP: 27 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Oracle Park (park factor 0.94)
Search 'Landen Roupp strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.3 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Max Meyer
MLB  Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
6.2
Margin
+3.1
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 10.1 → projects 6.2 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.32 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 25 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Max Meyer: ERA 3.96 | FIP 3.32 | K/9 10.1 | BB/9 4.0 | HR/9 0.72
Season IP: 25 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Oracle Park (park factor 0.94)
Search 'Max Meyer strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.2 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Reid Detmers
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
6.1
Margin
+2.9
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 9.9 → projects 6.1 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.77 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 28 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Reid Detmers: ERA 4.08 | FIP 2.77 | K/9 9.9 | BB/9 2.6 | HR/9 0.64
Season IP: 28 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Kauffman Stadium (park factor 1.00)
Search 'Reid Detmers strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.1 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Shota Imanaga
MLB  Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
6.1
Margin
+2.9
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 9.9 → projects 6.1 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.96 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 29 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Shota Imanaga: ERA 2.17 | FIP 2.96 | K/9 9.9 | BB/9 1.9 | HR/9 0.93
Season IP: 29 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (park factor 0.97)
Search 'Shota Imanaga strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.1 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Carmen Mlodzinski
MLB  Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
5.9
Margin
+2.7
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 9.7 → projects 5.9 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.29 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 24 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Carmen Mlodzinski: ERA 3.28 | FIP 2.29 | K/9 9.7 | BB/9 3.7 | HR/9 0.00
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Search 'Carmen Mlodzinski strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.9 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Under 15.0 (Total) ↑
MLB
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
1:06 PM PDT
+45.4%
—
 48
24.4%
$24.37
+$23.63
2
Over 207.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
6:40 PM PDT
+40.5%
—
 38
20.7%
$20.66
+$17.34
3
Houston Astros (Moneyline) ↑
MLB
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
11:11 AM PDT
+40.1%
—
 37
17.7%
$17.67
+$19.33
4
Over 8.5 (Total) ↑
MLB
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
10:41 AM PDT
+34.9%
—
 33
18.3%
$18.31
+$14.69
5
Over 218.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers
12:40 PM PDT
+31.4%
—
 27
14.7%
$14.68
+$12.32
P1
Detroit Tigers (Moneyline) + Houston Astros (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds / New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
+40.7%
—
 25
6.3%
$6.27
+$18.73
P2
San Antonio Spurs (Moneyline) + Houston Astros (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers / New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
+36.9%
—
 20
6.2%
$6.23
+$13.77
Deployed $108.19 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $0.00
Model Performance
Record
2W–2L
Win Rate
50.0%
Total PnL
$-16.19
ROI
-69.8%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
1W–2L (33.3%)
$-17.13
MEDIUM
1W–0L (100.0%)
$+0.94
NBA
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-5.67
MLB
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-10.52
⚠ Only 4 settled bet(s) — need 30+ for statistically meaningful calibration.
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (4 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $-16.19 total
$+0 $-16 04-25 04-25 04-25
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-25 04-25
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
Under 15% 2 55.9% 100.0% +44.1%
15–25% 2 74.5% 0.0% -74.5%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.