Daily Betting Report

Sunday, May 10, 2026 · Generated May 10, 2026 at 01:42 AM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 15 games  |  NHL: 2 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 2,032 used · 17,968 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Saturday, May 09 3W–4L $22.26
NBA Detroit Pistons +4.5 · +29.8% edge
❌ LOST
$13.82
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Final: Detroit Pistons 109 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 116. Model win probability: 79.0%. Actual margin +7 (needed +4.5).
✦ Cleveland Cavaliers injury impact (-0.8%)
✦ Detroit Pistons injuries benefit Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.2%)
MLB Colorado Rockies +1.5 · +17.0% edge
❌ LOST
$8.61
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Final: Colorado Rockies 3 @ Philadelphia Phillies 9. Model projected: Philadelphia Phillies 4.2, Colorado Rockies 4.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection. ⚠ Weather/rain likely a factor.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 12 mph blowing OUT (SW) at Philadelphia — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
✦ 🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Philadelphia (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
NBA Under 211.5 · +12.3% edge
❌ LOST
$5.45
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 131 @ Los Angeles Lakers 108. Actual total 239 vs line 211.5 (over by 27.5). Model projected 206.6.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Atlanta Braves +1.5 · +10.1% edge
✅ WON
+$3.36
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Final: Atlanta Braves 7 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 2. Model projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.0, Atlanta Braves 4.8. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Spencer Strider FIP 8.36 / xFIP 5.43 | K/9: 17.4
✦ Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
MLB Chicago White Sox +1.5 · +8.7% edge
✅ WON
+$2.47
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
Final: Seattle Mariners 1 @ Chicago White Sox 6. Model projected: Chicago White Sox 4.1, Seattle Mariners 4.3. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Anthony Kay FIP 5.97 / xFIP 4.97 | K/9: 6.0
✦ Luis Castillo FIP 4.05 / xFIP 4.05 | K/9: 8.2
PARLAY Detroit Pistons (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML) · +21.7% edge
❌ LOST
$2.91
Detroit Pistons (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
❌ Detroit Pistons (Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers) · ❌ Colorado Rockies (Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies)
PARLAY Atlanta Braves +1.5 + Over 8.5 · +10.2% edge
✅ WON
+$2.70
Atlanta Braves +1.5 + Over 8.5
✅ Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers) · ✅ Over 8.5 (Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers)
🏀 NBA 4 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
New York Knicks ↓
NBA  ML  ·  New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
HIGH
Mkt 52.1% → Model 90.0% +37.9% edge ▾
Market
52.1%
Model
90.0%
Edge
+37.9%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Philadelphia 76ers (+2%)
Rating edge: New York Knicks (blended NetRtg diff -22.4)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Philadelphia 76ers injury impact (-0.6%)
New York Knicks injuries benefit Philadelphia 76ers (+0.7%)
Model projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 102 — New York Knicks 105
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: OffRtg 115.9 | DefRtg 116.1 | NetRtg -0.2
New York Knicks: OffRtg 116.5 | DefRtg 110.1 | NetRtg 6.3
Philadelphia 76ers last 14 days: NetRtg -7.6 | Win% 43%
New York Knicks last 14 days: NetRtg 27.8 | Win% 100%
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1 | New York Knicks: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Philadelphia 76ers — Joel Embiid (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Knicks — OG Anunoby (F): DAY-TO-DAY
San Antonio Spurs -4.5 ↓
NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
HIGH
Mkt 50.9% → Model 80.0% +29.1% edge ▾
Market
50.9%
Model
80.0%
Edge
+29.1%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Minnesota Timberwolves (+2%)
Rating edge: San Antonio Spurs (blended NetRtg diff -16.1)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Minnesota Timberwolves injury impact (-2.2%)
San Antonio Spurs injuries benefit Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.9%)
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: OffRtg 118.0 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 3.4
San Antonio Spurs: OffRtg 119.8 | DefRtg 111.5 | NetRtg 8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves last 14 days: NetRtg -8.6 | Win% 40%
San Antonio Spurs last 14 days: NetRtg 16.6 | Win% 80%
Rest days — Minnesota Timberwolves: 1 | San Antonio Spurs: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Donte DiVincenzo (G): OUT
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — David Jones Garcia (F): OUT
Under 218.5 ↓
NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
HIGH
Mkt 52.4% → Model 75.9% +23.5% edge ▾
Market
52.4%
Model
75.9%
Edge
+23.5%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106
Model expected total: 209.4 vs market line 218.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves OffRtg: 118.0 vs San Antonio Spurs DefRtg: 111.5
San Antonio Spurs OffRtg: 119.8 vs Minnesota Timberwolves DefRtg: 114.6
Under 212.5 ↓
NBA New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 66.7% +14.2% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
66.7%
Edge
+14.2%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 102 — New York Knicks 105
Model expected total: 206.9 vs market line 212.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
Props
▾
Quentin Grimes
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Points Over
HIGH
Over 6.5 50.7% · Model 11.6 · +38.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 6.5
Book Odds
50.7%
Model Proj
11.6
Edge
+38.8%
Draftkings: Over 6.5 at 50.7%. Model projects 11.6.
Key Signals
Market: Over 6.5 at 50.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.6 → edge +38.7%
New York Knicks allows 110.1 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
Quentin Grimes: 13.4 PPG / 3.6 RPG / 3.3 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Points Over
HIGH
Over 8.5 56.7% · Model 11.9 · +25.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 8.5
Book Odds
56.7%
Model Proj
11.9
Edge
+25.0%
Draftkings: Over 8.5 at 56.7%. Model projects 11.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 8.5 at 56.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.9 → edge +25.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves allows 114.6 PPG (above avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 52.2% · Model 4.8 · +22.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
52.2%
Model Proj
4.8
Edge
+22.4%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 52.2%. Model projects 4.8.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 52.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.8 → edge +22.4%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
VJ Edgecombe
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Points Over
HIGH
Over 12.5 52.2% · Model 15.1 · +18.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 12.5
Book Odds
52.2%
Model Proj
15.1
Edge
+18.0%
Draftkings: Over 12.5 at 52.2%. Model projects 15.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 12.5 at 52.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 15.1 → edge +18.0%
New York Knicks allows 110.1 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: starter adjustment applied (-4%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
VJ Edgecombe: 16.0 PPG / 5.6 RPG / 4.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Mitchell Robinson
NBA  New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 7.5 47.4% · Model 8.5 · +16.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 7.5
Book Odds
47.4%
Model Proj
8.5
Edge
+16.6%
Draftkings: Over 7.5 at 47.4%. Model projects 8.5.
Key Signals
Market: Over 7.5 at 47.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 8.5 → edge +16.6%
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
Mitchell Robinson: 5.7 PPG / 8.8 RPG / 0.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Julius Randle
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Assists Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 59.3% · Model 4.8 · +16.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
59.3%
Model Proj
4.8
Edge
+16.2%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 59.3%. Model projects 4.8.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 59.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.8 → edge +16.2%
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Julius Randle: 21.1 PPG / 6.7 RPG / 5.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
San Francisco Giants +1.5 ↓
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
HIGH
Mkt 63.3% → Model 75.0% +11.7% edge ▾
Market
63.3%
Model
75.0%
Edge
+11.7%
Key Signals
Tyler Mahle FIP 4.98 / xFIP 3.79 | K/9: 8.5
Bubba Chandler FIP 5.58 / xFIP 5.24 | K/9: 8.2
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Bubba Chandler: ERA 4.76 vs xFIP 5.24 over 34 IP (severity 0.28) — Pittsburgh Pirates ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.94 (pitcher-friendly: Oracle Park)
Pittsburgh Pirates injury impact (-3.8%)
🌡️ Cool (56°F) at San Francisco — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ San Francisco Giants schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Pittsburgh Pirates schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: San Francisco Giants 4.1 — Pittsburgh Pirates 3.9
Research & Stats
🔵 Tyler Mahle: ERA 5.0 | FIP 4.98 / xFIP 3.79 | K/9 8.5 | BB/9 4.5 | IP 36
🔴 Bubba Chandler: ERA 4.76 | FIP 5.58 / xFIP 5.24 | K/9 8.2 | BB/9 6.9 | IP 34
San Francisco Giants offense: OPS 0.641 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 3.15
Pittsburgh Pirates offense: OPS 0.728 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 5.00
Bullpen ERA — San Francisco Giants: 4.07 | Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.73
Venue: Oracle Park — park factor 0.94 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Anthony Solometo (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Oddanier Mosqueda (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Mike Clevinger (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Dominic Fletcher (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Sean Sullivan (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (San Francisco): 56°F | Wind 9 mph WSW (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: San Francisco Giants 4.15 | Pittsburgh Pirates 3.92
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
MLB New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
HIGH
Mkt 59.3% → Model 70.5% +11.2% edge ▾
Market
59.3%
Model
70.5%
Edge
+11.2%
Key Signals
Logan Henderson FIP 0.83 / xFIP 2.29 | K/9: 12.4
Park factor 1.02 (pitcher-friendly: American Family Field)
New York Yankees injury impact (-4.2%)
⚠ Milwaukee Brewers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Yankees schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.5 — New York Yankees 4.6
Research & Stats
🔵 Logan Henderson: ERA 4.5 | FIP 0.83 / xFIP 2.29 | K/9 12.4 | BB/9 1.1 | IP 8
🔴 Carlos Rodón (away): stats unavailable
Milwaukee Brewers offense: OPS 0.688 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 5.16
New York Yankees offense: OPS 0.778 | AVG 0.240 | R/G 5.30
Bullpen ERA — Milwaukee Brewers: 3.44 | New York Yankees: 3.12
Venue: American Family Field — park factor 1.02 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — Gerson Garabito (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — J.B. Bukauskas (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Travis MacGregor (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Ryan Weathers (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Ben Hess (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
Model expected runs: Milwaukee Brewers 4.50 | New York Yankees 4.59
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Athletics
MLB  ML  ·  Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
HIGH
Mkt 49.9% → Model 59.7% +9.8% edge ▾
Market
49.9%
Model
59.7%
Edge
+9.8%
Key Signals
Chris Bassitt FIP 4.76 / xFIP 4.97 | K/9: 5.6
Luis Severino FIP 4.45 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9: 9.0
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-2.6%)
🌡️ Cool (58°F) at Baltimore — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Athletics schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Baltimore Orioles 4.2 — Athletics 4.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Chris Bassitt: ERA 5.91 | FIP 4.76 / xFIP 4.97 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 4.8 | IP 32
🔴 Luis Severino: ERA 4.15 | FIP 4.45 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9 9.0 | BB/9 5.2 | IP 43
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.704 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.47
Athletics offense: OPS 0.732 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.49
Bullpen ERA — Baltimore Orioles: 4.84 | Athletics: 4.47
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Baltimore): 58°F | Wind 3 mph W (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Baltimore Orioles 4.19 | Athletics 4.76
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Over 8.5
MLB Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
HIGH
Mkt 53.5% → Model 62.1% +8.6% edge ▾
Market
53.5%
Model
62.1%
Edge
+8.6%
Key Signals
Justin Wrobleski FIP 3.2 / xFIP 5.11 | K/9: 3.8
Bryce Elder FIP 3.14 / xFIP 3.72 | K/9: 8.3
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Justin Wrobleski: ERA 1.25 vs xFIP 5.11 over 36 IP (severity 2.12) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Bryce Elder: ERA 2.02 vs xFIP 3.72 over 49 IP (severity 0.66) — Atlanta Braves ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
🌡️ Cool (60°F) at Los Angeles — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Atlanta Braves schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.6 — Atlanta Braves 5.3
Model expected total: 9.9 vs line 8.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Justin Wrobleski: ERA 1.25 | FIP 3.2 / xFIP 5.11 | K/9 3.8 | BB/9 2.5 | IP 36
🔴 Bryce Elder: ERA 2.02 | FIP 3.14 / xFIP 3.72 | K/9 8.3 | BB/9 2.9 | IP 49
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.787 | AVG 0.269 | R/G 5.15
Atlanta Braves offense: OPS 0.785 | AVG 0.271 | R/G 5.53
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.17 | Atlanta Braves: 3.17
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Blake Burkhalter (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Los Angeles): 60°F | Wind 2 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.63 | Atlanta Braves 5.25
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Detroit Tigers +1.5
MLB Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
HIGH
Mkt 62.8% → Model 70.0% +7.2% edge ▾
Market
62.8%
Model
70.0%
Edge
+7.2%
Key Signals
Noah Cameron FIP 4.55 / xFIP 4.13 | K/9: 8.1
Brenan Hanifee FIP 2.39 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9: 5.8
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-2.2%)
🌡️ Cool (60°F) at Kansas City — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Detroit Tigers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Kansas City Royals 4.2 — Detroit Tigers 4.2
Research & Stats
🔵 Noah Cameron: ERA 5.4 | FIP 4.55 / xFIP 4.13 | K/9 8.1 | BB/9 3.2 | IP 31
🔴 Brenan Hanifee: ERA 0.0 | FIP 2.39 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9 5.8 | BB/9 1.5 | IP 6
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.712 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.15
Detroit Tigers offense: OPS 0.711 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.22
Bullpen ERA — Kansas City Royals: 4.23 | Detroit Tigers: 3.93
Venue: Kauffman Stadium — neutral park
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Kerry Carpenter (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Dugan Darnell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Kansas City): 60°F | Wind 8 mph NE (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Kansas City Royals 4.20 | Detroit Tigers 4.20
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Hunter Goodman
MLB  Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 45.9% · Model 4.08 · +48.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
45.9%
Model Proj
4.08
Edge
+48.2%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 45.9%. Model: 4.08.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 45.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.08 → edge +48.2%
vs Cristopher Sánchez (FIP 2.39) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
Hunter Goodman: AVG 0.246 | OBP 0.316 | H/G 0.94 | TB/G 1.97 | HR/G 0.278 | HRR/G 2.11 (152 PA)
Facing Cristopher Sánchez: FIP 2.39
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
TJ Rumfield
MLB  Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 47.2% · Model 3.67 · +47.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
47.2%
Model Proj
3.67
Edge
+47.2%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 47.2%. Model: 3.67.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 47.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.67 → edge +47.2%
vs Cristopher Sánchez (FIP 2.39) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
TJ Rumfield: AVG 0.272 | OBP 0.337 | H/G 1.00 | TB/G 1.57 | HR/G 0.125 | HRR/G 1.90 (163 PA)
Facing Cristopher Sánchez: FIP 2.39
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
Ben Rice
MLB  New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 45.9% · Model 5.02 · +47.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
45.9%
Model Proj
5.02
Edge
+47.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 45.9%. Model: 5.02.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 45.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.02 → edge +47.0%
vs Logan Henderson (FIP 0.83) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Ben Rice: AVG 0.316 | OBP 0.427 | H/G 1.06 | TB/G 2.34 | HR/G 0.343 | HRR/G 2.69 (143 PA)
Facing Logan Henderson: FIP 0.83
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Jonathan Aranda
MLB  Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 49.8% · Model 4.3 · +46.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.8%
Model Proj
4.3
Edge
+46.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.8%. Model: 4.30.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.30 → edge +46.1%
vs Payton Tolle (FIP 2.33) at Fenway Park (park factor 1.08)
Research & Stats
Jonathan Aranda: AVG 0.265 | OBP 0.368 | H/G 0.95 | TB/G 1.63 | HR/G 0.184 | HRR/G 2.21 (163 PA)
Facing Payton Tolle: FIP 2.33
Park factor 1.08 at Fenway Park
Cody Bellinger
MLB  New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 51.9% · Model 5.11 · +45.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
51.9%
Model Proj
5.11
Edge
+45.7%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 51.9%. Model: 5.11.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 51.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.11 → edge +45.7%
vs Logan Henderson (FIP 0.83) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Cody Bellinger: AVG 0.289 | OBP 0.385 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 1.85 | HR/G 0.128 | HRR/G 2.38 (169 PA)
Facing Logan Henderson: FIP 0.83
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Cody Bellinger
MLB  New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 44.4% · Model 3.95 · +45.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
44.4%
Model Proj
3.95
Edge
+45.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 44.4%. Model: 3.95.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 44.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.95 → edge +45.6%
vs Logan Henderson (FIP 0.83) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Cody Bellinger: AVG 0.289 | OBP 0.385 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 1.85 | HR/G 0.128 | HRR/G 2.38 (169 PA)
Facing Logan Henderson: FIP 0.83
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
🏒 NHL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Vegas Golden Knights
NHL  ML  ·  Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks
MEDIUM
Mkt 51.6% → Model 73.7% +22.2% edge ▾
Market
51.6%
Model
73.7%
Edge
+22.2%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Anaheim Ducks (+2%)
Rating edge: Vegas Golden Knights (blended goal-diff -1.19)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Anaheim Ducks injury impact (-0.5%)
Vegas Golden Knights injuries benefit Anaheim Ducks (+0.6%)
Research & Stats
Anaheim Ducks last 14 days: NetRtg -0.50 | Win% 50%
Vegas Golden Knights last 14 days: NetRtg 1.67 | Win% 83%
Rest days — Anaheim Ducks: 2 | Vegas Golden Knights: 2
⚕ Anaheim Ducks — Radko Gudas (D): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Vegas Golden Knights — Mark Stone (RW): DAY-TO-DAY
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Buffalo Sabres +1.5
NHL Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens
MEDIUM
Mkt 68.2% → Model 84.0% +15.9% edge ▾
Market
68.2%
Model
84.0%
Edge
+15.9%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Montreal Canadiens (+2%)
Rating edge: Buffalo Sabres (blended goal-diff -0.37)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Buffalo Sabres injuries benefit Montreal Canadiens (+2.0%)
Research & Stats
Montreal Canadiens last 14 days: NetRtg 0.33 | Win% 50%
Buffalo Sabres last 14 days: NetRtg 1.00 | Win% 60%
Rest days — Montreal Canadiens: 2 | Buffalo Sabres: 2
⚕ Buffalo Sabres — Noah Ostlund (C): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Today's Card top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
New York Knicks (ML) ↑
NBA
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
+37.9%
—
 36
19.5%
$19.48
+$16.52
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢52.1
Buy contracts36
Total cost (incl. commission)$19.48
Profit if win+$16.52
Loss if lose-$19.48
Expected value +$12.92
2
San Antonio Spurs -4.5 ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
+29.1%
—
 27
14.3%
$14.29
+$12.71
Robinhood Action — San Antonio Spurs -4.5
Contract price (est.)¢50.9
Buy contracts27
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.29
Profit if win+$12.71
Loss if lose-$14.29
Expected value +$7.31
3
Under 218.5 ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
+23.5%
—
 21
11.4%
$11.43
+$9.57
Robinhood Action — Under 218.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.4
Buy contracts21
Total cost (incl. commission)$11.43
Profit if win+$9.57
Loss if lose-$11.43
Expected value +$4.51
4
Under 212.5 ↑
NBA
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
+14.2%
—
 12
6.5%
$6.54
+$5.46
Robinhood Action — Under 212.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts12
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.54
Profit if win+$5.46
Loss if lose-$6.54
Expected value +$1.46
5
San Francisco Giants +1.5 ↑
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
+11.7%
—
 10
6.5%
$6.53
+$3.47
Robinhood Action — San Francisco Giants +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢63.3
Buy contracts10
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.53
Profit if win+$3.47
Loss if lose-$6.53
Expected value +$0.97
P1
New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
Parlay
+47.3%
—
 25
8.6%
$8.64
+$16.36
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢32.6
Buy contracts25
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.64
Profit if win+$16.36
P2
San Antonio Spurs -4.5 + Under 218.5
Parlay
+34.0%
—
 19
5.5%
$5.45
+$13.55
Robinhood Action — San Antonio Spurs -4.5 + Under 218.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.7
Buy contracts19
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.45
Profit if win+$13.55
Deployed $72.36 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $27.64
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
155
Model Hit Rate
45.8%
Avg Error
-1.8
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 38 39.5% 22.2 19.1 -3.1
Rebounds 27 48.1% 9.8 8.6 -1.2
Assists 11 36.4% 8.3 6.9 -1.4
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 25 72.0% 1.1 1.3 +0.2
HRR 25 40.0% 4.1 1.2 -3.0
Total Bases 6 16.7% 4.0 1.3 -2.7
Steals 2 0.0% 2.7 1.0 -1.7
HIGH confidence
46.2%
49H / 57M (106 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
NBA
44.4%
4H / 5M (9 settled)
Avg err: -1.4
MLB
54.5%
6H / 5M (11 settled)
Avg err: -3.1
▶ Hit Rate Trend (155 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-02 05-09
Model Performance
Record
58W–41L
Win Rate
58.6%
Total PnL
$+190.61
ROI
23.0%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
56W–40L (58.3%)
$+198.20
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
NBA
19W–11L (63.3%)
$+78.91
MLB
26W–16L (61.9%)
$+31.19
PARLAYS
13W–14L (48.1%)
$+80.51
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (100 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+190.61 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-02 05-09
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-02 05-09
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 18 59.7% 58.8% -0.9%
15%+ 79 69.2% 57.0% -12.2%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.