Daily Betting Report

Saturday, May 02, 2026 · Generated May 02, 2026 at 10:24 AM PDT
NBA: 1 game  |  MLB: 15 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 18 used · 19,982 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Friday, May 01 4W–3L +$2.02
NBA Under 218.5 Total · +26.2% edge
❌ LOST
$13.08
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors
Final: Cleveland Cavaliers 110 @ Toronto Raptors 112. Actual total 222 vs line 218.5 (over by 3.5). Model projected 208.2.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Spread · +25.4% edge
✅ WON
+$9.56
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
Final: New York Mets 4 @ Los Angeles Angels 3. Model projected: Los Angeles Angels 4.9, New York Mets 3.8. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Walbert Urena FIP 4.73 / xFIP 4.73 | K/9: 10.5
✦ Christian Scott FIP 15.02 / xFIP 18.56 | K/9: 8.2
MLB Houston Astros Moneyline · +24.5% edge
❌ LOST
$10.77
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
Final: Houston Astros 1 @ Boston Red Sox 3. Model projected: Boston Red Sox 3.8, Houston Astros 5.3. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing OUT (NW) at Boston — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
✦ Mike Burrows FIP 5.16 / xFIP 3.57 | K/9: 9.5
MLB Over 7.0 Total · +19.7% edge
✅ WON
+$8.03
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Final: Arizona Diamondbacks 5 @ Chicago Cubs 6. Model projected: Chicago Cubs 5.1, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.4. Actual total 11 vs line 7.0 (over by 4.0). Model projected 9.5.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Zac Gallen: ERA 3.14 vs xFIP 4.31 over 28 IP (severity 0.76) — Arizona Diamondbacks ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Colin Rea FIP 3.86 / xFIP 3.62 | K/9: 8.0
MLB Over 11.0 Total · +17.0% edge
✅ WON
+$6.97
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Final: Atlanta Braves 8 @ Colorado Rockies 6. Model projected: Colorado Rockies 6.0, Atlanta Braves 7.2. Actual total 14 vs line 11.0 (over by 3.0). Model projected 13.2.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Jose Quintana: ERA 4.91 vs xFIP 5.97 over 18 IP (severity 0.82) — Colorado Rockies ML may be overpriced by market
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Grant Holmes: ERA 3.62 vs xFIP 4.49 over 32 IP (severity 0.52) — Atlanta Braves ML may be overpriced by market
PARLAY Houston Astros (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline) Parlay · +26.9% edge
❌ LOST
$4.07
Houston Astros (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
❌ Houston Astros (Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox) · ❌ Los Angeles Angels (New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels)
PARLAY Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago White Sox (Moneyline) Parlay · +12.7% edge
✅ WON
+$5.38
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago White Sox (Moneyline)
✅ Toronto Blue Jays (Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins) · ✅ Chicago White Sox (Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres)
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
🕐 1:06 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 59.7% → Model 79.3% +19.6% edge ▾
Market
59.7%
Model
79.3%
Edge
+19.6%
Key Signals
Jacob Lopez FIP 6.46 / xFIP 6.25 | K/9: 6.7
Slade Cecconi FIP 5.43 / xFIP 4.17 | K/9: 7.5
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Jacob Lopez: ERA 5.84 vs xFIP 6.25 over 24 IP (severity 0.29) — Athletics ML may be overpriced by market
Athletics injury impact (-2.8%)
⚠ Athletics schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Cleveland Guardians schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Athletics 4.5 — Cleveland Guardians 5.3
Research & Stats
🔵 Jacob Lopez: ERA 5.84 | FIP 6.46 / xFIP 6.25 | K/9 6.7 | BB/9 7.8 | IP 24
🔴 Slade Cecconi: ERA 6.23 | FIP 5.43 / xFIP 4.17 | K/9 7.5 | BB/9 3.9 | IP 30
Athletics offense: OPS 0.717 | AVG 0.246 | R/G 4.25
Cleveland Guardians offense: OPS 0.695 | AVG 0.231 | R/G 3.97
Bullpen ERA — Athletics: 4.35 | Cleveland Guardians: 3.81
Venue: Sutter Health Park — neutral park
⚕ Athletics — Jeffrey Springs (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Athletics — JJ Goss (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cleveland Guardians — Carlos Hernandez (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cleveland Guardians — Cooper Ingle (C): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Dan Merzel (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Sutter): 65°F | Wind 6 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Athletics 4.50 | Cleveland Guardians 5.28
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢59.8
Buy contracts18
Total cost (incl. commission)$11.13
Profit if win+$6.87
Loss if lose-$11.13
Expected value +$3.14
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
🕐 6:39 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 59.1% → Model 74.9% +15.8% edge ▾
Market
59.1%
Model
74.9%
Edge
+15.8%
Key Signals
Reid Detmers FIP 3.02 / xFIP 3.25 | K/9: 9.8
Nolan McLean FIP 2.23 / xFIP 2.38 | K/9: 11.5
Park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly: Angel Stadium)
Los Angeles Angels injury impact (-2.8%)
New York Mets injury impact (-5.0%)
🌡️ Cool (61°F) at Anaheim — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Los Angeles Angels schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Mets schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Los Angeles Angels 3.4 — New York Mets 3.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Reid Detmers: ERA 4.28 | FIP 3.02 / xFIP 3.25 | K/9 9.8 | BB/9 2.4 | IP 33
🔴 Nolan McLean: ERA 2.55 | FIP 2.23 / xFIP 2.38 | K/9 11.5 | BB/9 2.6 | IP 35
Los Angeles Angels offense: OPS 0.720 | AVG 0.232 | R/G 4.64
New York Mets offense: OPS 0.632 | AVG 0.227 | R/G 3.44
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Angels: 4.59 | New York Mets: 4.10
Venue: Angel Stadium — park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Los Angeles Angels — Walbert Urena (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Los Angeles Angels — Yusei Kikuchi (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Jose Rojas (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Nick Burdi (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Joe Jacques (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Kevin Herget (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Mike Tauchman (RF): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Nate Lavender (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Robert Stock (RP): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Grae Kessinger (3B): OUT
🌤 Weather (Anaheim): 61°F | Wind 3 mph SW (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Angels 3.41 | New York Mets 3.05
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢59.0
Buy contracts14
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.54
Profit if win+$5.46
Loss if lose-$8.54
Expected value +$1.94
Chicago White Sox +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres
🕐 5:41 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 55.5% → Model 71.2% +15.8% edge ▾
Market
55.5%
Model
71.2%
Edge
+15.8%
Key Signals
Michael King FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.68 | K/9: 9.2
Sean Burke FIP 3.56 / xFIP 3.87 | K/9: 6.5
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Michael King: ERA 2.41 vs xFIP 3.68 over 33 IP (severity 0.74) — San Diego Padres ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Sean Burke: ERA 3.21 vs xFIP 3.87 over 33 IP (severity 0.39) — Chicago White Sox ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.93 (pitcher-friendly: Petco Park)
San Diego Padres injury impact (-4.4%)
Chicago White Sox injury impact (-1.4%)
⚠ San Diego Padres schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Chicago White Sox schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: San Diego Padres 3.8 — Chicago White Sox 3.7
Research & Stats
🔵 Michael King: ERA 2.41 | FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.68 | K/9 9.2 | BB/9 4.1 | IP 33
🔴 Sean Burke: ERA 3.21 | FIP 3.56 / xFIP 3.87 | K/9 6.5 | BB/9 1.9 | IP 33
San Diego Padres offense: OPS 0.689 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.55
Chicago White Sox offense: OPS 0.704 | AVG 0.226 | R/G 4.28
Bullpen ERA — San Diego Padres: 4.35 | Chicago White Sox: 4.41
Venue: Petco Park — park factor 0.93 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ San Diego Padres — Yu Darvish (SP): OUT
⚕ San Diego Padres — Blake Hunt (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Mason Adams (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Tim Elko (1B): OUT
🌤 Weather (San Diego): 63°F | Wind 6 mph NW (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: San Diego Padres 3.77 | Chicago White Sox 3.72
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢55.5
Buy contracts14
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.05
Profit if win+$5.95
Loss if lose-$8.05
Expected value +$1.92
Over 7.0 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
🕐 11:21 AM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 50.7% → Model 65.9% +15.2% edge ▾
Market
50.7%
Model
65.9%
Edge
+15.2%
Key Signals
Shota Imanaga FIP 2.91 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9: 10.0
Ryne Nelson FIP 5.7 / xFIP 4.57 | K/9: 8.6
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Shota Imanaga: ERA 2.88 vs xFIP 3.44 over 34 IP (severity 0.32) — Chicago Cubs ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly: Wrigley Field)
Chicago Cubs injury impact (-2.5%)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-3.9%)
🌡️ Cold (47°F) at Chicago — ball doesn't carry, Under lean (−0.5 runs)
⚠ Chicago Cubs schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago Cubs 4.9 — Arizona Diamondbacks 4.0
Model expected total: 8.8 vs line 7.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Shota Imanaga: ERA 2.88 | FIP 2.91 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9 10.0 | BB/9 2.4 | IP 34
🔴 Ryne Nelson: ERA 7.71 | FIP 5.7 / xFIP 4.57 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 3.9 | IP 25
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.777 | AVG 0.260 | R/G 5.47
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.726 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.71
Bullpen ERA — Chicago Cubs: 4.01 | Arizona Diamondbacks: 5.04
Venue: Wrigley Field — park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Nico Hoerner (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jaxon Wiggins (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Brandon Birdsell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jeff Brigham (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Gabe Morales (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 47°F | Wind 4 mph NNW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Chicago Cubs 4.88 | Arizona Diamondbacks 3.96
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢50.9
Buy contracts13
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.87
Profit if win+$6.13
Loss if lose-$6.87
Expected value +$1.69
Over 10.0 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
🕐 5:11 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 51.4% → Model 62.4% +11.1% edge ▾
Market
51.4%
Model
62.4%
Edge
+11.1%
Key Signals
Chris Sale FIP 3.66 / xFIP 3.06 | K/9: 9.8
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Chris Sale: ERA 2.31 vs xFIP 3.06 over 35 IP (severity 0.42) — Atlanta Braves ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly: Coors Field)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
🌡️ Cool (57°F) at Denver — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Atlanta Braves schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Colorado Rockies 5.1 — Atlanta Braves 6.3
Model expected total: 11.4 vs line 10.0
Research & Stats
🔵 TBD (home): stats unavailable
🔴 Chris Sale: ERA 2.31 | FIP 3.66 / xFIP 3.06 | K/9 9.8 | BB/9 2.3 | IP 35
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.725 | AVG 0.254 | R/G 4.33
Atlanta Braves offense: OPS 0.789 | AVG 0.271 | R/G 5.61
Bullpen ERA — Colorado Rockies: 4.28 | Atlanta Braves: 3.17
Venue: Coors Field — park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Michael Harris II (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Blake Burkhalter (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Denver): 57°F | Wind 4 mph S (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Colorado Rockies 5.15 | Atlanta Braves 6.28
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.1
Buy contracts8
Total cost (incl. commission)$4.32
Profit if win+$3.68
Loss if lose-$4.32
Expected value +$0.67
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 47.4% · Edge: +16.0%
HIGH
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Spread)
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels · Model: 74.9% · Edge: +15.8%
Under 8.0 (Total)
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels · Model: 63.4% · Edge: +10.1%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢31.5
Buy contracts7
Total cost$2.34
Profit if win+$4.66
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 50.0% · Edge: +18.1%
HIGH
Boston Celtics (Moneyline)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics · Model: 80.1% · Edge: +8.2%
Cleveland Guardians (Moneyline)
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics · Model: 62.4% · Edge: +18.1%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢31.9
Buy contracts8
Total cost$2.71
Profit if win+$5.29
Props Watchlist — model projections only. No sportsbook line available. Search Robinhood manually before betting.
Jaylen Brown
NBA  Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 30.2 · Bet Over ≤ 30 ▾
Projected
30.2
Bet Over ≤
30
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Jaylen Brown points' on Robinhood. Model line: 30.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 30.
Key Signals
Jaylen Brown season avg: 28.7 PPG
Philadelphia 76ers allows 116.1 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Boston Celtics: 56W-26L | PPG 114.9 | OPPG 116.1 (opp) | Net +7.7
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | Net -0.2
Boston Celtics recent (14d): PPG 107.7 | OPPG 102.8 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 112.3 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Boston Celtics: 1d | Philadelphia 76ers: 1d
Tyrese Maxey
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 29.6 · Bet Over ≤ 29 ▾
Projected
29.6
Bet Over ≤
29
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Tyrese Maxey points' on Robinhood. Model line: 29.6 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 29.
Key Signals
Tyrese Maxey season avg: 28.3 PPG
Boston Celtics allows 107.2 PPG — average defense
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 107.2 (opp) | Net -0.2
Boston Celtics: 56W-26L | Net +7.7
Philadelphia 76ers recent (14d): PPG 102.8 | OPPG 107.7 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 108.0 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1d | Boston Celtics: 1d
Neemias Queta
NBA  Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers · Rebounds Over
MEDIUM
Proj 8.4 · Bet Over ≤ 8 ▾
Projected
8.4
Bet Over ≤
8
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Neemias Queta rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 8.4 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 8.
Key Signals
Neemias Queta averages 8.4 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Boston Celtics: 56W-26L | PPG 114.9 | OPPG 116.1 (opp) | Net +7.7
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | Net -0.2
Boston Celtics recent (14d): PPG 107.7 | OPPG 102.8 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 112.3 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Boston Celtics: 1d | Philadelphia 76ers: 1d
Andre Drummond
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics · Rebounds Over
MEDIUM
Proj 8.4 · Bet Over ≤ 8 ▾
Projected
8.4
Bet Over ≤
8
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Andre Drummond rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 8.4 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 8.
Key Signals
Andre Drummond averages 8.4 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 107.2 (opp) | Net -0.2
Boston Celtics: 56W-26L | Net +7.7
Philadelphia 76ers recent (14d): PPG 102.8 | OPPG 107.7 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 108.0 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1d | Boston Celtics: 1d
Iván Herrera
MLB  St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Iván Herrera hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Roki Sasaki (FIP 7.07).
Key Signals
Iván Herrera: .254 AVG / .419 OBP this season (148 PA)
Roki Sasaki FIP 7.07 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~4.3 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Roki Sasaki: ERA 6.35 | FIP 7.07 | xFIP 4.32 | K/9 8.9 | BB/9 5.3 | HR/9 2.84
Season IP: 22 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Busch Stadium (park factor 0.98)
Opponent K%: 22.2% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 7.07 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.3 hits in 5.5 inn
Jordan Walker
MLB  St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Jordan Walker hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Roki Sasaki (FIP 7.07).
Key Signals
Jordan Walker: .308 AVG / .373 OBP this season (134 PA)
Roki Sasaki FIP 7.07 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~4.3 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Roki Sasaki: ERA 6.35 | FIP 7.07 | xFIP 4.32 | K/9 8.9 | BB/9 5.3 | HR/9 2.84
Season IP: 22 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Busch Stadium (park factor 0.98)
Opponent K%: 22.2% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 7.07 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.3 hits in 5.5 inn
JJ Wetherholt
MLB  St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'JJ Wetherholt hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Roki Sasaki (FIP 7.07).
Key Signals
JJ Wetherholt: .246 AVG / .365 OBP this season (148 PA)
Roki Sasaki FIP 7.07 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~4.3 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Roki Sasaki: ERA 6.35 | FIP 7.07 | xFIP 4.32 | K/9 8.9 | BB/9 5.3 | HR/9 2.84
Season IP: 22 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Busch Stadium (park factor 0.98)
Opponent K%: 22.2% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 7.07 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.3 hits in 5.5 inn
Chase DeLauter
MLB  Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Chase DeLauter hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Jacob Lopez (FIP 6.46).
Key Signals
Chase DeLauter: .286 AVG / .372 OBP this season (121 PA)
Jacob Lopez FIP 6.46 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.9 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Jacob Lopez: ERA 5.84 | FIP 6.46 | xFIP 6.25 | K/9 6.7 | BB/9 7.8 | HR/9 1.49
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Sutter Health Park (park factor 1.00)
Opponent K%: 20.9% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.46 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.9 hits in 5.5 inn
Brayan Rocchio
MLB  Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Brayan Rocchio hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Jacob Lopez (FIP 6.46).
Key Signals
Brayan Rocchio: .279 AVG / .353 OBP this season (118 PA)
Jacob Lopez FIP 6.46 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.9 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Jacob Lopez: ERA 5.84 | FIP 6.46 | xFIP 6.25 | K/9 6.7 | BB/9 7.8 | HR/9 1.49
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Sutter Health Park (park factor 1.00)
Opponent K%: 20.9% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.46 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.9 hits in 5.5 inn
Nico Hoerner
MLB  Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Nico Hoerner hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Ryne Nelson (FIP 5.70).
Key Signals
Nico Hoerner: .297 AVG / .374 OBP this season (147 PA)
Ryne Nelson FIP 5.70 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~5.2 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Ryne Nelson: ERA 7.71 | FIP 5.70 | xFIP 4.57 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 3.9 | HR/9 2.14
Season IP: 25 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Wrigley Field (park factor 1.03)
Opponent K%: 20.5% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 5.70 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~5.2 hits in 5.5 inn
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
1:06 PM PDT
+19.6%
—
 18
11.1%
$11.13
+$6.87
2
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
6:39 PM PDT
+15.8%
—
 14
8.5%
$8.54
+$5.46
3
Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres
5:41 PM PDT
+15.8%
—
 14
8.1%
$8.05
+$5.95
4
Over 7.0 (Total) ↑
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
11:21 AM PDT
+15.2%
—
 13
6.9%
$6.87
+$6.13
5
Over 10.0 (Total) ↑
MLB
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
5:11 PM PDT
+11.1%
—
 8
4.3%
$4.32
+$3.68
P1
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Spread) + Under 8.0 (Total) ↑
Parlay
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels / New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
+16.0%
—
 7
2.3%
$2.34
+$4.66
P2
Boston Celtics (Moneyline) + Cleveland Guardians (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics / Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
+18.1%
—
 8
2.7%
$2.71
+$5.29
Deployed $43.96 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $56.04
Props Model Accuracy — how often the model's projection exceeded the actual stat
Props Settled
69
Model Hit Rate
43.5%
Avg Error
-1.8
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 17 23.5% 26.6 22.6 -4.0
Rebounds 15 46.7% 11.5 10.2 -1.3
Assists 7 28.6% 9.9 7.7 -2.2
Strikeouts 14 35.7% 6.0 4.4 -1.7
Hits 16 75.0% 1.0 1.2 +0.2
HIGH confidence
54.3%
19H / 16M (35 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
32.4%
11H / 23M (34 settled)
Model Performance
Record
22W–21L
Win Rate
51.2%
Total PnL
$+30.92
ROI
7.4%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
21W–20L (51.2%)
$+45.70
MEDIUM
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-14.78
NBA
8W–4L (66.7%)
$+30.79
MLB
10W–10L (50.0%)
$-18.32
PARLAY
4W–7L (36.4%)
$+18.45
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (43 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+30.92 total
$+40 $0 $-54 04-25 04-28 05-01
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-28 05-01
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 3 44.1% 33.3% -10.8%
15%+ 37 72.3% 48.6% -23.7%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.