Daily Betting Report

Monday, April 27, 2026 · Generated April 27, 2026 at 10:09 PM PDT
NBA: 0 games  |  MLB: 0 games  |  Budget: $100
📊 Yesterday's Results — Sunday, April 26 4W–3L +$11.81
MLB Over 8.5 Total · +34.9% edge
❌ LOST
$18.31
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Model projected: Tampa Bay Rays 5.5, Minnesota Twins 6.2.
✦ Griffin Jax FIP: 7.64 | K/9: 10.0
✦ Simeon Woods Richardson FIP: 5.94 | K/9: 4.6
MLB Houston Astros Moneyline · +40.1% edge
✅ WON
+$19.33
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
Model projected: Houston Astros 6.7, New York Yankees 3.9.
✦ Spencer Arrighetti FIP: 3.02 | K/9: 10.6
✦ Luis Gil FIP: 7.04 | K/9: 5.4
NBA Over 218.5 Total · +31.4% edge
❌ LOST
$14.68
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers
✦ Combined pace: 100.0 possessions/game
MLB Under 15.0 Total · +45.4% edge
❌ LOST
$24.37
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Model projected: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.1, San Diego Padres 4.6.
✦ Ryne Nelson FIP: 5.13 | K/9: 8.9
✦ Michael King FIP: 3.31 | K/9: 8.6
NBA Over 207.5 Total · +40.5% edge
✅ WON
+$17.34
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
✦ Combined pace: 100.0 possessions/game
PARLAY Detroit Tigers (Moneyline) + Houston Astros (Moneyline) Parlay · +40.7% edge
✅ WON
+$18.73
Detroit Tigers (Moneyline) + Houston Astros (Moneyline)
✅ Detroit Tigers (Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds) · ✅ Houston Astros (New York Yankees @ Houston Astros)
PARLAY San Antonio Spurs (Moneyline) + Houston Astros (Moneyline) Parlay · +36.9% edge
✅ WON
+$13.77
San Antonio Spurs (Moneyline) + Houston Astros (Moneyline)
✅ San Antonio Spurs (San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers) · ✅ Houston Astros (New York Yankees @ Houston Astros)
🏀
No NBA games today.
⚾
No MLB games today.
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
🕐 5:30 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 44.0% → Model 82.2% +38.2% edge ▾
Market
44.0%
Model
82.2%
Edge
+38.2%
Key Signals
Anthony Kay FIP: 6.15 | K/9: 5.6
Jack Kochanowicz FIP: 4.1 | K/9: 5.9
Park factor 0.95 (pitcher-friendly: Rate Field)
Chicago White Sox injury impact (-1.4%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Hunter Wendelstedt: low-scoring games (run factor 0.94x avg) — leans Under
👨‍⚖️ Hunter Wendelstedt: large strike zone (K factor 1.07x avg) — favors pitchers / strikeout props
🌬️ Cross wind 19 mph (S) at Chicago — minimal scoring impact
🌧️ 92% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
⚠ Chicago White Sox schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Los Angeles Angels schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago White Sox 3.7 — Los Angeles Angels 4.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Anthony Kay (home): ERA 5.57 | FIP 6.15 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 5.1 | IP 21
🔴 Jack Kochanowicz (away): ERA 3.1 | FIP 4.1 | K/9 5.9 | BB/9 5.3 | IP 29
Chicago White Sox offense: OPS 0.688 | AVG 0.222 | R/G 4.04
Los Angeles Angels offense: OPS 0.728 | AVG 0.232 | R/G 4.79
Bullpen ERA — Chicago White Sox: 4.67 | Los Angeles Angels: 4.50
Venue: Rate Field — park factor 0.95 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Mason Adams (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Tim Elko (1B): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Hunter Wendelstedt — run factor 0.94x | K factor 1.07x | One of the most pitcher-friendly HPUs
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 66°F | Wind 19 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 92%
Model expected runs: Chicago White Sox 3.71 | Los Angeles Angels 4.84
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢44.0
Buy contracts36
Total cost (incl. commission)$16.56
Profit if win+$19.44
Loss if lose-$16.56
Expected value +$13.02
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
🕐 3:41 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 39.1% → Model 75.1% +36.0% edge ▾
Market
39.1%
Model
75.1%
Edge
+36.0%
Key Signals
Mason Montgomery FIP: 2.21 | K/9: 17.0
Dustin May FIP: 3.78 | K/9: 7.4
Park factor 0.96 (pitcher-friendly: PNC Park)
Pittsburgh Pirates injury impact (-3.9%)
St. Louis Cardinals injury impact (-3.8%)
🌬️ Wind 11 mph blowing OUT (SE) at Pittsburgh — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
⚠ Pittsburgh Pirates schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ St. Louis Cardinals schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.0 — St. Louis Cardinals 3.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Mason Montgomery (home): ERA 3.97 | FIP 2.21 | K/9 17.0 | BB/9 4.9 | IP 11
🔴 Dustin May (away): ERA 5.84 | FIP 3.78 | K/9 7.4 | BB/9 1.9 | IP 24
Pittsburgh Pirates offense: OPS 0.697 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.82
St. Louis Cardinals offense: OPS 0.714 | AVG 0.235 | R/G 4.63
Bullpen ERA — Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.34 | St. Louis Cardinals: 4.87
Venue: PNC Park — park factor 0.96 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Sean Sullivan (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Dominic Fletcher (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Anthony Solometo (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Mike Clevinger (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Oddanier Mosqueda (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Packy Naughton (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Ixan Henderson (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Victor Santos (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Sem Robberse (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Zack Thompson (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Chris Segal (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Pittsburgh): 73°F | Wind 11 mph SE (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.03 | St. Louis Cardinals 3.51
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢42.5
Buy contracts31
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.81
Profit if win+$17.19
Loss if lose-$13.81
Expected value +$9.55
Under 9.0 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
🕐 4:41 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 52.4% → Model 77.1% +24.7% edge ▾
Market
52.4%
Model
77.1%
Edge
+24.7%
Key Signals
Connor Prielipp FIP: 0.2 | K/9: 13.5
Luis Castillo FIP: 3.5 | K/9: 9.0
Park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly: Target Field)
Minnesota Twins injury impact (-5.8%)
Seattle Mariners injury impact (-4.0%)
🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing IN (WNW) at Minneapolis — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
🌡️ Cool (56°F) at Minneapolis — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Minneapolis (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
⚠ Minnesota Twins schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Seattle Mariners schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Minnesota Twins 3.8 — Seattle Mariners 1.9
Model expected total: 5.7 vs line 9.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Connor Prielipp (home): ERA 4.5 | FIP 0.2 | K/9 13.5 | BB/9 0.0 | IP 4
🔴 Luis Castillo (away): ERA 5.01 | FIP 3.5 | K/9 9.0 | BB/9 3.5 | IP 23
Minnesota Twins offense: OPS 0.697 | AVG 0.227 | R/G 4.71
Seattle Mariners offense: OPS 0.702 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.07
Bullpen ERA — Minnesota Twins: 4.32 | Seattle Mariners: 3.52
Venue: Target Field — park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Cory Lewis (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Julian Merryweather (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Matt Canterino (SP): OUT
⚕ Seattle Mariners — Teddy McGraw (SP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Gabe Morales (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Minneapolis): 56°F | Wind 10 mph WNW (blowing in) | Precip 100%
Model expected runs: Minnesota Twins 3.76 | Seattle Mariners 1.90
⚠ Minnesota Twins injury credibility cap applied — model probability anchored near market (52%)
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢51.0
Buy contracts21
Total cost (incl. commission)$11.13
Profit if win+$9.87
Loss if lose-$11.13
Expected value +$4.53
Toronto Blue Jays ↓
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
🕐 4:08 PM PDT
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 55.7% → Model 71.8% +16.1% edge ▾
Market
55.7%
Model
71.8%
Edge
+16.1%
Key Signals
Dylan Cease FIP: 1.37 | K/9: 15.7
Ranger Suarez FIP: 4.13 | K/9: 6.3
Park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly: Rogers Centre)
Toronto Blue Jays injury impact (-2.4%)
Boston Red Sox injury impact (-1.6%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Marvin Hudson: low-scoring games (run factor 0.96x avg) — leans Under
👨‍⚖️ Marvin Hudson: large strike zone (K factor 1.04x avg) — favors pitchers / strikeout props
⚠ Toronto Blue Jays schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Boston Red Sox schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.3 — Boston Red Sox 2.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Dylan Cease (home): ERA 2.1 | FIP 1.37 | K/9 15.7 | BB/9 5.0 | IP 25
🔴 Ranger Suarez (away): ERA 4.0 | FIP 4.13 | K/9 6.3 | BB/9 2.7 | IP 27
Toronto Blue Jays offense: OPS 0.700 | AVG 0.255 | R/G 4.07
Boston Red Sox offense: OPS 0.669 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.18
Bullpen ERA — Toronto Blue Jays: 4.45 | Boston Red Sox: 4.38
Venue: Rogers Centre — park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Andres Gimenez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — CJ Stubbs (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Geovanny Jesus Planchart (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Chay Yeager (RP): OUT
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Brendan Rodgers (2B): OUT
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Hobie Harris (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Marvin Hudson — run factor 0.96x | K factor 1.04x | Below-avg run environment
Model expected runs: Toronto Blue Jays 4.31 | Boston Red Sox 2.51
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢56.0
Buy contracts13
Total cost (incl. commission)$7.54
Profit if win+$5.46
Loss if lose-$7.54
Expected value +$1.74
Under 225.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
🕐 7:45 PM PDT
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Mkt 52.2% → Model 83.6% +31.4% edge ▾
Market
52.2%
Model
83.6%
Edge
+31.4%
Key Signals
Model expected total: 212.8 vs market line 225.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Denver Nuggets OffRtg: 122.1 vs Minnesota Timberwolves DefRtg: 114.6
Minnesota Timberwolves OffRtg: 118.0 vs Denver Nuggets DefRtg: 116.9
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.2
Buy contracts29
Total cost (incl. commission)$15.72
Profit if win+$13.28
Loss if lose-$15.72
Expected value +$8.51
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 45.6% · Edge: +18.9%
🔒 Locked HIGH
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline)
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Model: 71.4% · Edge: +15.8%
Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres · Model: 63.8% · Edge: +15.8%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.7
Buy contracts10
Total cost$2.87
Profit if win+$7.13
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 47.9% · Edge: +20.1%
🔒 Locked HIGH
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline)
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Model: 71.4% · Edge: +15.8%
Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox · Model: 67.1% · Edge: +17.1%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢27.8
Buy contracts10
Total cost$2.98
Profit if win+$7.02
Props Watchlist — model projections only. No sportsbook line available. Search Robinhood manually before betting.
Jalen Duren
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Rebounds Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Proj 10.5 · Bet Over ≤ 10 ▾
Projected
10.5
Bet Over ≤
10
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Jalen Duren rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 10.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 10.
Key Signals
Jalen Duren averages 10.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 101.3 | OPPG 102.7 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 110.4 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Cade Cunningham
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Assists Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Proj 9.9 · Bet Over ≤ 9 ▾
Projected
9.9
Bet Over ≤
9
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Cade Cunningham assists' on Robinhood. Model line: 9.9 APG season avg. Look for Over at or below 9.
Key Signals
Cade Cunningham averages 9.9 assists/game this season
High-scoring expected game supports assist volume
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 101.3 | OPPG 102.7 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 110.4 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
NBA  Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns · Points Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Proj 32.7 · Bet Over ≤ 32 ▾
Projected
32.7
Bet Over ≤
32
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points' on Robinhood. Model line: 32.7 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 32.
Key Signals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander season avg: 31.1 PPG
Phoenix Suns allows 111.1 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64W-18L | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 111.1 (opp) | Net +11.1
Phoenix Suns: 45W-37L | Net +1.5
Oklahoma City Thunder recent (14d): PPG 120.0 | OPPG 100.0 | Win% 100%
Model projected team pts: 117.0 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Oklahoma City Thunder: 1d | Phoenix Suns: 1d
Nikola Jokic
NBA  Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Proj 12.9 · Bet Over ≤ 12 ▾
Projected
12.9
Bet Over ≤
12
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Nikola Jokic rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 12.9 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 12.
Key Signals
Nikola Jokic averages 12.9 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Denver Nuggets: 54W-28L | PPG 122.1 | OPPG 114.6 (opp) | Net +5.2
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | Net +3.4
Denver Nuggets recent (14d): PPG 105.5 | OPPG 112.2 | Win% 25%
Model projected team pts: 113.2 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Denver Nuggets: 1d | Minnesota Timberwolves: 1d
Rudy Gobert
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets · Rebounds Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Proj 11.5 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.5
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Rudy Gobert rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Rudy Gobert averages 11.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 116.9 (opp) | Net +3.4
Denver Nuggets: 54W-28L | Net +5.2
Minnesota Timberwolves recent (14d): PPG 112.2 | OPPG 105.5 | Win% 75%
Model projected team pts: 115.4 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Minnesota Timberwolves: 1d | Denver Nuggets: 1d
Nikola Jokic
NBA  Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Assists Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Proj 10.7 · Bet Over ≤ 10 ▾
Projected
10.7
Bet Over ≤
10
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Nikola Jokic assists' on Robinhood. Model line: 10.7 APG season avg. Look for Over at or below 10.
Key Signals
Nikola Jokic averages 10.7 assists/game this season
High-scoring expected game supports assist volume
Research & Stats
Denver Nuggets: 54W-28L | PPG 122.1 | OPPG 114.6 (opp) | Net +5.2
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | Net +3.4
Denver Nuggets recent (14d): PPG 105.5 | OPPG 112.2 | Win% 25%
Model projected team pts: 113.2 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Denver Nuggets: 1d | Minnesota Timberwolves: 1d
Mike Trout
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Mike Trout hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Anthony Kay (FIP 6.15).
Key Signals
Mike Trout: .232 AVG / .415 OBP this season (130 PA)
Anthony Kay FIP 6.15 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.7 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Anthony Kay: ERA 5.57 | FIP 6.15 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 5.1 | HR/9 1.71
Season IP: 21 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Rate Field (park factor 1.00)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Hunter Wendelstedt: large zone (K factor 1.07x) → adjusted K/9 5.6 → 6.0
FIP 6.15 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.7 hits in 5.5 inn
Zach Neto
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Zach Neto hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Anthony Kay (FIP 6.15).
Key Signals
Zach Neto: .243 AVG / .360 OBP this season (136 PA)
Anthony Kay FIP 6.15 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.7 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Anthony Kay: ERA 5.57 | FIP 6.15 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 5.1 | HR/9 1.71
Season IP: 21 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Rate Field (park factor 1.00)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Hunter Wendelstedt: large zone (K factor 1.07x) → adjusted K/9 5.6 → 6.0
FIP 6.15 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.7 hits in 5.5 inn
Dylan Cease
MLB  Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 10.0 · Bet Over ≤ 10 ▾
Projected
10.0
Bet Over ≤
10
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Dylan Cease strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~10.0 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 10.
Key Signals
K/9: 15.7 → adjusted to 16.3 (umpire Marvin Hudson) → projects 10.0 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 1.37 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 25 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Dylan Cease: ERA 2.10 | FIP 1.37 | K/9 15.7 | BB/9 5.0 | HR/9 0.00
Season IP: 25 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Rogers Centre (park factor 1.00)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Marvin Hudson: large zone (K factor 1.04x) → adjusted K/9 15.7 → 16.3
Jack Leiter
MLB  Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.4 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.4
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Jack Leiter strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.4 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.4 → projects 6.4 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.76 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 25 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Jack Leiter: ERA 4.97 | FIP 3.76 | K/9 10.4 | BB/9 3.9 | HR/9 1.08
Season IP: 25 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Globe Life Field (park factor 1.05)
Randy Vásquez
MLB  San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 5.9 · Bet Over ≤ 5 ▾
Projected
5.9
Bet Over ≤
5
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Randy Vásquez strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.9 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Key Signals
K/9: 9.6 → projects 5.9 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.38 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 28 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Randy Vásquez: ERA 1.88 | FIP 2.38 | K/9 9.6 | BB/9 2.6 | HR/9 0.32
Season IP: 28 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Petco Park (park factor 0.93)
Chris Paddack
MLB  Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 5.7 · Bet Over ≤ 5 ▾
Projected
5.7
Bet Over ≤
5
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Chris Paddack strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.7 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Key Signals
K/9: 9.4 → projects 5.7 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.58 (above league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 24 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Chris Paddack: ERA 6.38 | FIP 4.58 | K/9 9.4 | BB/9 2.2 | HR/9 1.88
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (park factor 0.97)
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
5:30 PM PDT
+38.2%
—
 36
16.6%
$16.56
+$19.44
2
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
3:41 PM PDT
+36.0%
—
 31
13.8%
$13.81
+$17.19
3
Under 9.0 (Total) ↑
MLB
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
4:41 PM PDT
+24.7%
—
 21
11.1%
$11.13
+$9.87
4
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) ↑
MLB
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
4:08 PM PDT
+16.1%
—
 13
7.5%
$7.54
+$5.46
5
Under 225.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
7:45 PM PDT
+31.4%
—
 29
15.7%
$15.72
+$13.28
P1
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays / Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
+18.9%
—
 10
2.9%
$2.87
+$7.13
P2
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays / Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
+20.1%
—
 10
3.0%
$2.98
+$7.02
Deployed $70.61 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $29.39
Props Model Accuracy — how often the model's projection exceeded the actual stat
Props Settled
16
Model Hit Rate
37.5%
Avg Error
-3.1
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points Over 5 20.0% 27.7 19.6 -8.1
Rebounds Over 4 75.0% 11.9 12.0 +0.1
Assists Over 1 0.0% 10.7 9.0 -1.7
Strikeouts Over 6 33.3% 6.0 4.7 -1.3
HIGH confidence
75.0%
3H / 1M (4 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
25.0%
3H / 9M (12 settled)
Model Performance
Record
6W–5L
Win Rate
54.5%
Total PnL
$-4.38
ROI
-3.3%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
5W–5L (50.0%)
$-5.32
MEDIUM
1W–0L (100.0%)
$+0.94
NBA
2W–2L (50.0%)
$-3.01
MLB
2W–3L (40.0%)
$-33.87
PARLAY
2W–0L (100.0%)
$+32.50
⚠ Only 11 settled bet(s) — need 30+ for statistically meaningful calibration.
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (11 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $-4.38 total
$+0 $-54 04-25 04-26 04-26
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-26 04-26
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 2 55.9% 100.0% +44.1%
15%+ 9 80.9% 44.4% -36.5%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.