Daily Betting Report

Friday, April 24, 2026 · Generated April 24, 2026 at 11:32 AM PDT
NBA: 3 games  |  MLB: 14 games  |  Budget: $100
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Over 9.0
MLB  Total  ·  Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers
🕐 7:16 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
51.9%
Model
85.0%
Edge
+33.0%
Key Signals
Emmet Sheehan FIP: 5.2 | K/9: 8.1
Jameson Taillon FIP: 6.04 | K/9: 8.5
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
Model projected score: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.3 — Chicago Cubs 5.5
Model expected total: 11.8 vs line 9.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Emmet Sheehan (home): ERA 5.85 | FIP 5.2 | K/9 8.1 | BB/9 3.6 | IP 20
🔴 Jameson Taillon (away): ERA 3.97 | FIP 6.04 | K/9 8.5 | BB/9 3.6 | IP 22
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.828 | AVG 0.279 | R/G 5.48
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.784 | AVG 0.267 | R/G 5.56
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.27 | Chicago Cubs: 3.44
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.31 | Chicago Cubs 5.48
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢51.9
Buy contracts31
Total cost (incl. commission)$16.72
Profit if win+$14.28
Loss if lose-$16.72
Expected value +$9.62
Chicago White Sox
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox
🕐 4:41 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
53.2%
Model
85.0%
Edge
+31.8%
Key Signals
Bryan Hudson FIP: 2.51 | K/9: 12.4
Miles Mikolas FIP: 7.26 | K/9: 7.0
Model projected score: Chicago White Sox 5.9 — Washington Nationals 3.6
Research & Stats
🔵 Bryan Hudson (home): ERA 1.69 | FIP 2.51 | K/9 12.4 | BB/9 6.2 | IP 10
🔴 Miles Mikolas (away): ERA 9.15 | FIP 7.26 | K/9 7.0 | BB/9 4.7 | IP 19
Chicago White Sox offense: OPS 0.702 | AVG 0.224 | R/G 4.16
Washington Nationals offense: OPS 0.741 | AVG 0.252 | R/G 5.54
Bullpen ERA — Chicago White Sox: 4.96 | Washington Nationals: 5.63
Venue: Rate Field — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Chicago White Sox 5.88 | Washington Nationals 3.64
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢53.2
Buy contracts30
Total cost (incl. commission)$16.56
Profit if win+$13.44
Loss if lose-$16.56
Expected value +$8.94
Baltimore Orioles
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
🕐 4:06 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
52.6%
Model
83.5%
Edge
+30.9%
Key Signals
Brandon Young FIP: 3.6 | K/9: 3.6
Brayan Bello FIP: 5.89 | K/9: 6.4
Model projected score: Baltimore Orioles 5.3 — Boston Red Sox 3.6
Research & Stats
🔵 Brandon Young (home): ERA 0.0 | FIP 3.6 | K/9 3.6 | BB/9 3.6 | IP 5
🔴 Brayan Bello (away): ERA 6.75 | FIP 5.89 | K/9 6.4 | BB/9 5.9 | IP 18
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.701 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 4.44
Boston Red Sox offense: OPS 0.636 | AVG 0.223 | R/G 3.68
Bullpen ERA — Baltimore Orioles: 4.00 | Boston Red Sox: 4.37
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Baltimore Orioles 5.33 | Boston Red Sox 3.58
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.6
Buy contracts29
Total cost (incl. commission)$15.84
Profit if win+$13.16
Loss if lose-$15.84
Expected value +$8.38
Minnesota Twins
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
🕐 4:11 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
45.8%
Model
74.1%
Edge
+28.4%
Key Signals
Drew Rasmussen FIP: 4.29 | K/9: 9.4
Taj Bradley FIP: 1.8 | K/9: 11.2
Model projected score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.3 — Minnesota Twins 4.4
Research & Stats
🔵 Drew Rasmussen (home): ERA 2.75 | FIP 4.29 | K/9 9.4 | BB/9 1.4 | IP 19
🔴 Taj Bradley (away): ERA 1.63 | FIP 1.8 | K/9 11.2 | BB/9 3.3 | IP 27
Tampa Bay Rays offense: OPS 0.711 | AVG 0.257 | R/G 4.83
Minnesota Twins offense: OPS 0.714 | AVG 0.231 | R/G 5.08
Bullpen ERA — Tampa Bay Rays: 4.70 | Minnesota Twins: 4.13
Venue: Tropicana Field — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Tampa Bay Rays 3.26 | Minnesota Twins 4.43
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢45.8
Buy contracts26
Total cost (incl. commission)$12.42
Profit if win+$13.58
Loss if lose-$12.42
Expected value +$6.85
Philadelphia 76ers
NBA  Moneyline  ·  Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
🕐 4:10 PM PDT
MEDIUM
Market
26.6%
Model
53.0%
Edge
+26.4%
Key Signals
⚠ NBA stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home court advantage: Philadelphia 76ers (+3%)
Research & Stats
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1 | Boston Celtics: 1
No significant injuries reported for either team
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢26.6
Buy contracts29
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.31
Profit if win+$20.69
Loss if lose-$8.31
Expected value +$7.06
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1
Combined prob: 72.2% · Edge: +44.6%
HIGH
Chicago White Sox (Moneyline)
Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox · Model: 85.0% · Edge: +31.8%
Over 9.0 (Total)
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Model: 85.0% · Edge: +33.0%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢27.6
Buy contracts25
Total cost$7.41
Profit if win+$17.59
Parlay #2
Combined prob: 70.9% · Edge: +43.6%
HIGH
Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline)
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles · Model: 83.5% · Edge: +30.9%
Over 9.0 (Total)
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Model: 85.0% · Edge: +33.0%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢27.3
Buy contracts25
Total cost$7.33
Profit if win+$17.67
Props Research (verify Robinhood price before betting)
Andrew Abbott
MLB  Cincinnati Reds vs Detroit Tigers · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
3.4
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 5.6 → projects 3.4 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.40 (above league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 24 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Andrew Abbott: ERA 5.84 | FIP 4.40 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 4.1
Season innings: 24 | HR/9: 0.74
Projected start: ~5.5 innings
Venue: Great American Ball Park (Park factor 1.12)
Search for Andrew Abbott strikeouts on Robinhood. Model: ~3.4 Ks in 5.5 innings. Look for Over lines at 3 or below.
Framber Valdez
MLB  Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
3.7
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 6.0 → projects 3.7 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.20 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 30 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Framber Valdez: ERA 3.30 | FIP 3.20 | K/9 6.0 | BB/9 2.7
Season innings: 30 | HR/9: 0.30
Projected start: ~5.5 innings
Venue: Great American Ball Park (Park factor 1.12)
Search for Framber Valdez strikeouts on Robinhood. Model: ~3.7 Ks in 5.5 innings. Look for Over lines at 3 or below.
Gavin Williams
MLB  Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
7.5
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 12.3 → projects 7.5 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.99 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 29 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Gavin Williams: ERA 2.12 | FIP 3.99 | K/9 12.3 | BB/9 5.2
Season innings: 29 | HR/9: 1.23
Projected start: ~5.5 innings
Venue: Rogers Centre (Park factor 1.00)
Search for Gavin Williams strikeouts on Robinhood. Model: ~7.5 Ks in 5.5 innings. Look for Over lines at 7 or below.
Freddy Peralta
MLB  New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
5.9
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 9.6 → projects 5.9 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.19 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 26 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Freddy Peralta: ERA 4.05 | FIP 4.19 | K/9 9.6 | BB/9 3.4
Season innings: 26 | HR/9: 1.37
Projected start: ~5.5 innings
Venue: Citi Field (Park factor 1.00)
Search for Freddy Peralta strikeouts on Robinhood. Model: ~5.9 Ks in 5.5 innings. Look for Over lines at 5 or below.
Michael Lorenzen
MLB  Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
4.2
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 6.8 → projects 4.2 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.99 (above league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 21 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Michael Lorenzen: ERA 7.48 | FIP 4.99 | K/9 6.8 | BB/9 2.5
Season innings: 21 | HR/9: 1.70
Projected start: ~5.5 innings
Venue: Citi Field (Park factor 1.00)
Search for Michael Lorenzen strikeouts on Robinhood. Model: ~4.2 Ks in 5.5 innings. Look for Over lines at 4 or below.
New York Mets top-order batters
MLB  New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies · Hits Over (1+)
MEDIUM
Model Line
1.0
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Pitcher FIP 4.99 — well above avg (4.20), hittable
Model projects ~5.0 hits allowed in 5.5 innings
Target: New York Mets leadoff / #2 / #3 hitters for 1+ hit prop
Research & Stats
Michael Lorenzen: ERA 7.48 | FIP 4.99 | K/9 6.8 | BB/9 2.5
Season innings: 21 | HR/9: 1.70
Projected start: ~5.5 innings
Venue: Citi Field (Park factor 1.00)
FIP 4.99 > 4.50 threshold — opposing batters have advantage
ERA-based hit projection: ~5.0 hits in 5.5 innings
Michael Lorenzen (FIP 4.99) is hittable. On Robinhood, look for 1+ hits over props on New York Mets's 1st-3rd batters in the lineup. Model projects ~5.0 hits allowed in 5.5 inn.
Budget Allocation
#Bet & GameContractsCostProfit
1
Over 9.0 (Total)
MLB
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers
7:16 PM PDT
 31 $16.72
16.7%		 +$14.28
2
Chicago White Sox (Moneyline)
MLB
Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox
4:41 PM PDT
 30 $16.56
16.6%		 +$13.44
3
Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline)
MLB
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
4:06 PM PDT
 29 $15.84
15.8%		 +$13.16
4
Minnesota Twins (Moneyline)
MLB
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
4:11 PM PDT
 26 $12.42
12.4%		 +$13.58
5
Philadelphia 76ers (Moneyline)
NBA
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
4:10 PM PDT
 29 $8.31
8.3%		 +$20.69
P1
Chicago White Sox (Moneyline) + Over 9.0 (Total)
Parlay
Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox / Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers
 25 $7.41
7.4%		 +$17.59
P2
Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline) + Over 9.0 (Total)
Parlay
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles / Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers
 25 $7.33
7.3%		 +$17.67
Deployed $84.59 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $15.41
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.