Daily Betting Report

Wednesday, May 13, 2026 · Generated May 13, 2026 at 09:43 PM PDT
NBA: 1 game  |  MLB: 13 games  |  NHL: 1 game  |  IPL: 2 matches  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 3,663 used · 16,337 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Tuesday, May 12 2W–5L $33.79
MLB Houston Astros +1.5 · +38.8% edge
❌ LOST
$17.44
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Final: Seattle Mariners 10 @ Houston Astros 2. Model projected: Houston Astros 4.8, Seattle Mariners 4.4. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ Tatsuya Imai FIP 4.05 / xFIP 4.69 | K/9: 14.3
✦ Bryan Woo FIP 3.75 / xFIP 4.00 | K/9: 7.3
MLB Detroit Tigers +1.5 · +25.8% edge
❌ LOST
$15.79
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
Final: Detroit Tigers 2 @ New York Mets 10. Model projected: New York Mets 3.9, Detroit Tigers 4.2. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ Freddy Peralta FIP 3.66 / xFIP 3.81 | K/9: 9.0
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Freddy Peralta: ERA 3.12 vs xFIP 3.81 over 43 IP (severity 0.32) — New York Mets ML may be overpriced by market
MLB Colorado Rockies +1.5 · +19.6% edge
❌ LOST
$8.45
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Final: Colorado Rockies 1 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 3. Model projected: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.2, Colorado Rockies 3.4. Correct side but didn't cover +1.5 (actual margin +2.0).
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Paul Skenes: ERA 2.36 vs xFIP 2.78 over 42 IP (severity 0.20) — Pittsburgh Pirates ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Paul Skenes FIP 2.75 / xFIP 2.78 | K/9: 9.9
MLB Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 · +18.6% edge
✅ WON
+$6.33
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Final: Tampa Bay Rays 7 @ Toronto Blue Jays 6. Model projected: Toronto Blue Jays 4.1, Tampa Bay Rays 4.2. Covered +1.5 — actual margin -1.0.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Patrick Corbin: ERA 3.60 vs xFIP 3.96 over 30 IP (severity 0.23) — Toronto Blue Jays ML may be overpriced by market
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Shane McClanahan: ERA 2.60 vs xFIP 3.77 over 34 IP (severity 0.67) — Tampa Bay Rays ML may be overpriced by market
MLB Under 9.5 · +18.5% edge
✅ WON
+$7.53
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Final: New York Yankees 6 @ Baltimore Orioles 2. Model projected: Baltimore Orioles 3.1, New York Yankees 4.2. Actual total 8 vs line 9.5 (under by 1.5). Model projected 7.3.
✦ Trevor Rogers FIP 3.7 / xFIP 3.78 | K/9: 8.1
✦ Will Warren FIP 3.32 / xFIP 2.47 | K/9: 11.6
PARLAY New York Yankees (ML) + Houston Astros (ML) · +22.4% edge
❌ LOST
$3.12
New York Yankees (ML) + Houston Astros (ML)
✅ New York Yankees (New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles) · ❌ Houston Astros (Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros)
PARLAY Philadelphia Phillies (ML) + Detroit Tigers (ML) · +19.3% edge
❌ LOST
$2.85
Philadelphia Phillies (ML) + Detroit Tigers (ML)
✅ Philadelphia Phillies (Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox) · ❌ Detroit Tigers (Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets)
🏀 NBA 2 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Over 211.5
NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 69.2% +16.7% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
69.2%
Edge
+16.7%
Why this pick ▾
The model projects 218.0 combined points vs the market line of 211.5, a 6.5-point lean toward the over. Projected: Detroit Pistons 110 — Cleveland Cavaliers 110.
Context & Stats
Model projected score: Detroit Pistons 110 — Cleveland Cavaliers 110
Model expected total: 218.0 vs market line 211.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Detroit Pistons off (blended): 117.8 vs Cleveland Cavaliers def (blended): 115.4
Cleveland Cavaliers off (blended): 119.5 vs Detroit Pistons def (blended): 109.6
⚕ Detroit Pistons injury drag: −2.3 pts from totals projection
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Detroit Pistons
NBA  ML  ·  Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
MEDIUM
Mkt 60.5% → Model 64.6% +4.1% edge ▾
Market
60.5%
Model
64.6%
Edge
+4.1%
Why this pick ▾
Injury drag on Detroit Pistons (3.0%) further shifts the model's probability. Projected Detroit Pistons by 2 points (Detroit Pistons 105 — Cleveland Cavaliers 103).
Context & Stats
Home court advantage: Detroit Pistons (+2%)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Detroit Pistons injury impact (-3.0%)
Model projected score: Detroit Pistons 105 — Cleveland Cavaliers 103
Detroit Pistons: OffRtg 117.8 | DefRtg 109.6 | NetRtg 8.2
Cleveland Cavaliers: OffRtg 119.5 | DefRtg 115.4 | NetRtg 4.1
Detroit Pistons last 14 days: NetRtg 6.7 | Win% 71%
Cleveland Cavaliers last 14 days: NetRtg 1.6 | Win% 57%
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1 | Cleveland Cavaliers: 1
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Kevin Huerter (G): OUT
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Caris LeVert (G): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Duncan Robinson (F): DAY-TO-DAY
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Jaylon Tyson
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 63.9% · Model 4.9 · +34.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
63.9%
Model Proj
4.9
Edge
+34.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 63.9%. Model projects 4.9.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Jaylon Tyson at 4.9 rebounds vs the market line of 1.5 (+3.4 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 63.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.9 → edge +34.1%
Avg game pace: 118.6 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
Game total: model 218.0 vs market 211.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.03x)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jaylon Tyson: 13.2 PPG / 5.1 RPG / 2.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Dennis Schroder
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Assists Over
HIGH
Over 2.5 55.0% · Model 4.6 · +33.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 2.5
Book Odds
55.0%
Model Proj
4.6
Edge
+33.1%
Draftkings: Over 2.5 at 55.0%. Model projects 4.6.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Dennis Schroder at 4.6 assists vs the market line of 2.5 (+2.1 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 2.5 at 55.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.6 → edge +33.2%
Detroit Pistons scores 117.8 PPG (above avg → more assist opportunities)
Game total: model 218.0 vs market 211.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.03x)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Dennis Schroder: 10.8 PPG / 2.7 RPG / 4.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
James Harden
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
HIGH
Over 18.5 54.5% · Model 24.3 · +21.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 18.5
Book Odds
54.5%
Model Proj
24.3
Edge
+21.7%
Draftkings: Over 18.5 at 54.5%. Model projects 24.3.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects James Harden at 24.3 points vs the market line of 18.5 (+5.8 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 18.5 at 54.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 24.3 → edge +21.7%
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG (below avg)
Game total: model 218.0 vs market 211.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.03x)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
James Harden: 23.6 PPG / 4.8 RPG / 6.5 APG / 1.91 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Max Strus
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 60.3% · Model 5.2 · +20.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
60.3%
Model Proj
5.2
Edge
+20.0%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 60.3%. Model projects 5.2.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Max Strus at 5.2 rebounds vs the market line of 3.5 (+1.7 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 3.5 at 60.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.2 → edge +20.0%
Avg game pace: 118.6 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
Game total: model 218.0 vs market 211.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.03x)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Max Strus: 11.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 2.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jarrett Allen
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Blocks Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 48.1% · Model 2.11 · +17.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
48.1%
Model Proj
2.11
Edge
+17.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 48.1%. Model projects 2.11.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Jarrett Allen at 2.1 blocks vs the market line of 1.5 (+0.6 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 48.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.11 → edge +18.0%
Detroit Pistons scores 117.8 PPG (above avg → more block opportunities)
Game total: model 218.0 vs market 211.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.03x)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jarrett Allen: 15.4 PPG / 8.5 RPG / 1.8 APG / 0.00 SPG / 2.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Jarrett Allen
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 7.5 50.0% · Model 8.8 · +16.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 7.5
Book Odds
50.0%
Model Proj
8.8
Edge
+16.9%
Draftkings: Over 7.5 at 50.0%. Model projects 8.8.
Why this pick ▾
Model projects Jarrett Allen at 8.8 rebounds vs the market line of 7.5 (+1.3 edge).
Context & Stats
Market: Over 7.5 at 50.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 8.8 → edge +16.9%
Avg game pace: 118.6 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
Game total: model 218.0 vs market 211.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.03x)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jarrett Allen: 15.4 PPG / 8.5 RPG / 1.8 APG / 0.00 SPG / 2.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 ↓
MLB New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 51.9% → Model 74.2% +22.2% edge ▾
Market
51.9%
Model
74.2%
Edge
+22.2%
Why this pick ▾
The primary driver is injury context — Baltimore Orioles (3.0% win probability impact) and New York Yankees (2.8% win probability impact), which the model believes is only partially reflected in current market pricing. Model projects New York Yankees by 0.3 runs (Baltimore Orioles 4.0 — New York Yankees 4.3).
Context & Stats
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-3.0%)
New York Yankees injury impact (-2.8%)
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Yankees schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Baltimore Orioles 4.0 — New York Yankees 4.3
🔵 Kyle Bradish: ERA 4.83 | FIP 4.2 / xFIP 3.50 | K/9 9.9 | BB/9 4.8 | IP 41
🔴 Max Fried: ERA 2.91 | FIP 2.7 / xFIP 3.89 | K/9 7.4 | BB/9 2.8 | IP 58
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.691 | AVG 0.229 | R/G 4.33
New York Yankees offense: OPS 0.773 | AVG 0.238 | R/G 5.19
Bullpen ERA — Baltimore Orioles: 4.20 | New York Yankees: 4.20
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Dylan Beavers (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Travis MacGregor (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Ben Hess (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Edwin Moscoso (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Baltimore): 67°F | Wind 15 mph SSW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Detroit Tigers ↓
MLB  ML  ·  Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
HIGH
Mkt 48.3% → Model 68.2% +19.9% edge ▾
Market
48.3%
Model
68.2%
Edge
+19.9%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge against New York Mets, driven by a moderate ERA trap on Christian Scott — 3.27 ERA vs 3.80 xFIP in 11 innings suggests regression risk the market hasn't fully priced. New York Mets is depleted (3.1% impact). Model projects Detroit Tigers by 0.9 runs (New York Mets 3.3 — Detroit Tigers 4.2).
Context & Stats
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Christian Scott: ERA 3.27 vs xFIP 3.80 over 11 IP (severity 0.46) — New York Mets ML may be overpriced by market
New York Mets injury impact (-3.1%)
⚠ New York Mets schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Detroit Tigers schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
Model projected score: New York Mets 3.3 — Detroit Tigers 4.2
🔵 Christian Scott: ERA 3.27 | FIP 3.56 / xFIP 3.80 | K/9 12.3 | BB/9 5.7 | IP 11
🔴 Framber Valdez: ERA 4.57 | FIP 4.13 / xFIP 3.83 | K/9 7.3 | BB/9 3.1 | IP 43
New York Mets offense: OPS 0.634 | AVG 0.225 | R/G 3.63
Detroit Tigers offense: OPS 0.716 | AVG 0.243 | R/G 4.21
Bullpen ERA — New York Mets: 4.31 (WHIP 1.45) | Detroit Tigers: 4.39 (WHIP 1.43)
Venue: Citi Field — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ New York Mets — Grae Kessinger (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Mike Tauchman (RF): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Joe Jacques (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Kevin Herget (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Nick Burdi (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Jose Rojas (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Robert Stock (RP): OUT
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Dugan Darnell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Junior Valentine (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (New York): 69°F | Wind 19 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 1%
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 ↓
MLB Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
HIGH
Mkt 62.0% → Model 81.3% +19.3% edge ▾
Market
62.0%
Model
81.3%
Edge
+19.3%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge against Boston Red Sox, driven by a moderate ERA trap on Sonny Gray — 3.54 ERA vs 4.18 xFIP in 28 innings suggests regression risk the market hasn't fully priced. Model projects Philadelphia Phillies by 0.1 runs (Boston Red Sox 4.2 — Philadelphia Phillies 4.3).
Context & Stats
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Sonny Gray: ERA 3.54 vs xFIP 4.18 over 28 IP (severity 0.42) — Boston Red Sox ML may be overpriced by market
Boston Red Sox injury impact (-1.4%)
Philadelphia Phillies injury impact (-1.4%)
⚠ Boston Red Sox schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Philadelphia Phillies schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Boston Red Sox 4.2 — Philadelphia Phillies 4.3
🔵 Sonny Gray: ERA 3.54 | FIP 4.27 / xFIP 4.18 | K/9 4.8 | BB/9 2.2 | IP 28
🔴 Andrew Painter: ERA 6.89 | FIP 4.88 / xFIP 4.11 | K/9 8.4 | BB/9 3.4 | IP 32
Boston Red Sox offense: OPS 0.664 | AVG 0.235 | R/G 3.83
Philadelphia Phillies offense: OPS 0.695 | AVG 0.235 | R/G 4.10
Bullpen ERA — Boston Red Sox: 3.77 (WHIP 1.32) | Philadelphia Phillies: 3.99 (WHIP 1.49)
Venue: Fenway Park — park factor 1.08 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Hobie Harris (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Brendan Rodgers (2B): OUT
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Trea Turner (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Keaton Anthony (1B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Rene Pinto (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Daniel Robert (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Andrew Bechtold (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Mark Kolozsvary (C): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Dan Bellino (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Boston): 67°F | Wind 13 mph SSW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Houston Astros +1.5 ↓
MLB Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
HIGH
Mkt 56.0% → Model 73.6% +17.6% edge ▾
Market
56.0%
Model
73.6%
Edge
+17.6%
Why this pick ▾
The model builds a strong edge from a combination of pitching quality, roster health, and situational factors. Model projects Seattle Mariners by 0.4 runs (Houston Astros 4.5 — Seattle Mariners 4.9).
Context & Stats
🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Daikin (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Seattle Mariners schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Houston Astros 4.5 — Seattle Mariners 4.9
🔵 Lance McCullers Jr.: ERA 7.41 | FIP 4.7 / xFIP 3.94 | K/9 9.8 | BB/9 5.3 | IP 34
🔴 Bryce Miller (away): stats unavailable
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.751 | AVG 0.255 | R/G 4.63
Seattle Mariners offense: OPS 0.700 | AVG 0.231 | R/G 4.19
Bullpen ERA — Houston Astros: 6.46 (WHIP 1.75) | Seattle Mariners: 3.32 (WHIP 1.34)
Venue: Daikin Park — neutral park
⚕ Houston Astros — Walker Janek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Lucas Spence (OF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Seattle Mariners — Teddy McGraw (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Roberto Ortiz — run factor 1.05x | K factor 0.96x | Hitter-friendly tendencies
🌤 Weather (Daikin): 61°F | Wind 6 mph N (cross wind) | Precip 100%
Miami Marlins ↓
MLB  ML  ·  Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins
HIGH
Mkt 54.5% → Model 71.6% +17.2% edge ▾
Market
54.5%
Model
71.6%
Edge
+17.2%
Why this pick ▾
A strong pitching mismatch drives this pick — Max Meyer (3.40 xFIP) holds a meaningful advantage over Simeon Woods Richardson (5.22 xFIP). Model projects Miami Marlins by 1.2 runs (Minnesota Twins 3.7 — Miami Marlins 4.9).
Context & Stats
Minnesota Twins injury impact (-2.1%)
Miami Marlins injury impact (-1.2%)
⚠ Minnesota Twins schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Miami Marlins schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Minnesota Twins 3.7 — Miami Marlins 4.9
🔵 Simeon Woods Richardson: ERA 6.92 | FIP 6.12 / xFIP 5.22 | K/9 4.4 | BB/9 3.7 | IP 39
🔴 Max Meyer: ERA 2.79 | FIP 2.75 / xFIP 3.40 | K/9 9.6 | BB/9 3.2 | IP 42
Minnesota Twins offense: OPS 0.705 | AVG 0.235 | R/G 4.69
Miami Marlins offense: OPS 0.694 | AVG 0.244 | R/G 4.19
Bullpen ERA — Minnesota Twins: 5.54 (WHIP 1.60) | Miami Marlins: 3.03 (WHIP 1.20)
Venue: Target Field — park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Cory Lewis (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Julian Merryweather (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Matt Canterino (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Walker Jenkins (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Miami Marlins — Owen Caissie (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Miami Marlins — Jesus Tinoco (RP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Manny Gonzalez — run factor 1.06x | K factor 0.94x | One of the most hitter-friendly HPUs
🌤 Weather (Minneapolis): 71°F | Wind 10 mph N (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Props
▾
Matt Olson
MLB  Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 42.6% · Model 2.5 · +37.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
42.6%
Model Proj
2.5
Edge
+37.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 42.6%. Model: 2.50.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Matt Olson at 2.50 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +1.00 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 42.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.50 → edge +36.9%
Game total: model 9.2 vs market 8.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.08x)
Matt Olson: AVG 0.294 | OBP 0.374 | H/G 1.14 | TB/G 2.50 | HR/G 0.333 | HRR/G 2.88 | K% 23.5% (187 PA)
Facing Shota Imanaga: FIP 2.88 / xFIP 3.35 | WHIP 0.93 | K/9 10.1
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 41.5% · Model 2.18 · +34.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
41.5%
Model Proj
2.18
Edge
+34.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 41.5%. Model: 2.18.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Ildemaro Vargas at 2.18 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +0.68 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 41.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.18 → edge +34.1%
Game total: model 7.6 vs market 8.0 (low-scoring environment, scale 0.95x)
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.336 | OBP 0.360 | H/G 1.32 | TB/G 2.27 | HR/G 0.206 | HRR/G 2.73 | K% 10.6% (141 PA)
Facing Kumar Rocker: FIP 4.35 / xFIP 3.91 | WHIP 1.53 | K/9 7.6
Park factor 1.05 at Globe Life Field
James Wood
MLB  Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 45.2% · Model 2.37 · +32.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
45.2%
Model Proj
2.37
Edge
+32.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 45.2%. Model: 2.37.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects James Wood at 2.37 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +0.87 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 45.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.37 → edge +32.6%
James Wood: AVG 0.244 | OBP 0.392 | H/G 0.93 | TB/G 2.05 | HR/G 0.286 | HRR/G 2.48 | K% 31.2% (199 PA)
Facing Nick Lodolo: FIP 8.10 / xFIP 4.53 | WHIP 1.18 | K/9 3.5
Park factor 1.12 at Great American Ball Park
CJ Abrams
MLB  Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 44.1% · Model 2.24 · +31.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
44.1%
Model Proj
2.24
Edge
+31.7%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 44.1%. Model: 2.24.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects CJ Abrams at 2.24 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +0.74 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 44.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.24 → edge +31.7%
CJ Abrams: AVG 0.293 | OBP 0.391 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 1.90 | HR/G 0.220 | HRR/G 2.49 | K% 19.5% (174 PA)
Facing Nick Lodolo: FIP 8.10 / xFIP 4.53 | WHIP 1.18 | K/9 3.5
Park factor 1.12 at Great American Ball Park
Garrett Mitchell
MLB  Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 0.5 57.6% · Model 1.62 · +31.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 0.5
Book Odds
57.6%
Model Proj
1.62
Edge
+31.4%
Draftkings: Over 0.5 at 57.6%. Model: 1.62.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Garrett Mitchell at 1.62 HRR vs the line of 0.5 — a strong +1.12 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 0.5 at 57.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 1.62 → edge +31.4%
Game total: model 6.9 vs market 6.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.06x)
K% matchup: batter 37.6% vs pitcher 9.0 K/9 → -7.4% suppression
Garrett Mitchell: AVG 0.211 | OBP 0.341 | H/G 0.64 | TB/G 0.94 | HR/G 0.028 | HRR/G 1.72 | K% 37.6% (133 PA)
Facing Michael King: FIP 3.69 / xFIP 3.69 | WHIP 1.06 | K/9 9.0
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Ian Happ
MLB  Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 43.7% · Model 2.11 · +30.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.7%
Model Proj
2.11
Edge
+30.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.7%. Model: 2.11.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Ian Happ at 2.11 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +0.61 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.11 → edge +30.0%
Game total: model 9.2 vs market 8.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.08x)
Ian Happ: AVG 0.228 | OBP 0.365 | H/G 0.85 | TB/G 1.73 | HR/G 0.225 | HRR/G 2.10 | K% 30.9% (181 PA)
Facing JR Ritchie: FIP 6.83 / xFIP 5.31 | WHIP 1.52 | K/9 6.8
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
🏒 NHL 3 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Over 6.5
NHL Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche
MEDIUM
Mkt 51.2% → Model 58.6% +7.4% edge ▾
Market
51.2%
Model
58.6%
Edge
+7.4%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a solid edge driven by season net rating and recent form differential.
Context & Stats
Model projected score: Colorado Avalanche 3.7 — Minnesota Wild 3.2
Model expected total: 6.8 vs market line 6.5
Colorado Avalanche GPG (blended): 4.41 vs Minnesota Wild GAPG (blended): 3.74
Minnesota Wild GPG (blended): 3.69 vs Colorado Avalanche GAPG (blended): 3.18
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Colorado Avalanche
NHL  ML  ·  Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche
MEDIUM
Mkt 66.5% → Model 73.2% +6.7% edge ▾
Market
66.5%
Model
73.2%
Edge
+6.7%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a modest edge driven by season net rating and recent form differential.
Context & Stats
Home ice advantage: Colorado Avalanche (+2%)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Colorado Avalanche injury impact (-3.3%)
Minnesota Wild injuries benefit Colorado Avalanche (+2.7%)
Colorado Avalanche: 3.68 GPG | 2.48 GAPG | NetRtg 1.21
Minnesota Wild: 3.32 GPG | 2.93 GAPG | NetRtg 0.39
Colorado Avalanche last 14 days: NetRtg 1.25 | Win% 75%
Minnesota Wild last 14 days: NetRtg -0.40 | Win% 40%
Rest days — Colorado Avalanche: 2 | Minnesota Wild: 2
⚕ Colorado Avalanche — Artturi Lehkonen (LW): OUT
⚕ Colorado Avalanche — Sam Malinski (D): OUT
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Jonas Brodin (D): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Joel Eriksson Ek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Charlie Stramel (C): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Minnesota Wild +1.5
NHL Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche
MEDIUM
Mkt 54.9% → Model 60.4% +5.5% edge ▾
Market
54.9%
Model
60.4%
Edge
+5.5%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a modest edge driven by season net rating and recent form differential.
Context & Stats
Home ice advantage: Colorado Avalanche (+2%)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Colorado Avalanche injury impact (-3.3%)
Minnesota Wild injuries benefit Colorado Avalanche (+2.7%)
Colorado Avalanche: 3.68 GPG | 2.48 GAPG | NetRtg 1.21
Minnesota Wild: 3.32 GPG | 2.93 GAPG | NetRtg 0.39
Colorado Avalanche last 14 days: NetRtg 1.25 | Win% 75%
Minnesota Wild last 14 days: NetRtg -0.40 | Win% 40%
Rest days — Colorado Avalanche: 2 | Minnesota Wild: 2
⚕ Colorado Avalanche — Artturi Lehkonen (LW): OUT
⚕ Colorado Avalanche — Sam Malinski (D): OUT
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Jonas Brodin (D): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Joel Eriksson Ek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Charlie Stramel (C): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
🏏 IPL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Mumbai Indians
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Mumbai Indians @ Punjab Kings
📅 loading…
MEDIUM
Mkt 44.9% → Model 54.0% +9.1% edge ▾
Market
44.9%
Model
54.0%
Edge
+9.1%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Kolkata Knight Riders @ Royal Challengers Bengaluru
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Final: Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 6 wkts  ✓ WON
Mkt 54.9% → Model 67.6% +12.7% edge ▾
Market
54.9%
Model
67.6%
Edge
+12.7%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Today's Card top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 ↑
MLB
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
+22.2%
—
 20
10.8%
$10.78
+$9.22
🔒
Robinhood Action — Baltimore Orioles +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢51.9
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.78
Profit if win+$9.22
Loss if lose-$10.78
Expected value +$4.05
2
Detroit Tigers (ML) ↑
MLB
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
+19.9%
—
 16
8.2%
$8.24
+$7.76
Robinhood Action — Detroit Tigers (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢49.5
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.24
Profit if win+$7.76
Loss if lose-$8.24
Expected value +$2.71
3
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 ↑
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
+19.3%
—
 20
12.8%
$12.85
+$7.15
Robinhood Action — Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢62.2
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$12.85
Profit if win+$7.15
Loss if lose-$12.85
Expected value +$3.71
4
Houston Astros +1.5 ↑
MLB
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
+17.6%
—
 29
17.2%
$17.16
+$11.84
Robinhood Action — Houston Astros +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢57.2
Buy contracts29
Total cost (incl. commission)$17.16
Profit if win+$11.84
Loss if lose-$17.16
Expected value +$8.36
5
Miami Marlins (ML) ↑
MLB
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins
+17.2%
—
 15
8.5%
$8.46
+$6.54
Robinhood Action — Miami Marlins (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢54.4
Buy contracts15
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.46
Profit if win+$6.54
Loss if lose-$8.46
Expected value +$2.29
P1
Detroit Tigers (ML) + Miami Marlins (ML)
Parlay
+22.6%
—
 12
3.4%
$3.39
+$8.61
Robinhood Action — Detroit Tigers (ML) + Miami Marlins (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.3
Buy contracts12
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.39
Profit if win+$8.61
P2
Detroit Tigers (ML) + Milwaukee Brewers (ML)
Parlay
+24.0%
—
 12
3.7%
$3.69
+$8.31
Robinhood Action — Detroit Tigers (ML) + Milwaukee Brewers (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢28.7
Buy contracts12
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.69
Profit if win+$8.31
Deployed $64.57 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $35.43
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
194
Model Hit Rate
44.3%
Avg Error
-2.0
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 45 37.8% 21.2 17.5 -3.7
Rebounds 34 41.2% 9.1 7.4 -1.7
Assists 13 30.8% 7.8 5.9 -1.8
Strikeouts 22 45.5% 6.2 4.9 -1.3
Hits 26 69.2% 1.1 1.2 +0.2
HRR 36 44.4% 3.8 1.3 -2.5
Total Bases 11 36.4% 3.8 2.0 -1.8
Steals 3 33.3% 2.7 1.3 -1.3
Blocks 4 50.0% 2.8 1.2 -1.5
HIGH confidence
44.1%
64H / 81M (145 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
NBA
38.4%
38H / 61M (99 settled)
Avg err: -2.6
MLB
50.5%
48H / 47M (95 settled)
Avg err: -1.4
▶ Hit Rate Trend (194 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-04 05-12
Model Performance
Record
64W–56L
Win Rate
53.3%
Total PnL
$+110.03
ROI
10.9%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
62W–55L (53.0%)
$+117.62
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
🏀 NBA
21W–16L (56.8%)
$+51.82
⚾ MLB
30W–20L (60.0%)
$+3.95
PARLAYS
13W–20L (39.4%)
$+54.26
Watchlist Tracking  — no budget allocated, W-L only
🏒 NHL
1W–3L (25.0%)
4 picks tracked
🏏 IPL
2W–1L (66.7%)
3 picks tracked
🏀 WNBA
0W–0L
No picks settled yet
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (121 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+110.03 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-04 05-12
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-04 05-12
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 22 60.4% 61.9% +1.5%
15%+ 96 69.0% 50.0% -19.0%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.