Daily Betting Report

Friday, May 08, 2026 · Generated May 08, 2026 at 02:59 PM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 15 games  |  NHL: 2 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 1,841 used · 18,159 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Thursday, May 07 5W–2L +$19.90
NBA Under 215.5 · +18.0% edge
✅ WON
+$7.32
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Final: Cleveland Cavaliers 97 @ Detroit Pistons 107. Actual total 204 vs line 215.5 (under by 11.5). Model projected 208.6.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
NBA Detroit Pistons ML · +14.6% edge
✅ WON
+$5.01
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Final: Cleveland Cavaliers 97 @ Detroit Pistons 107. Model win probability: 74.0%.
✦ Detroit Pistons injury impact (-2.2%)
✦ Cleveland Cavaliers injuries benefit Detroit Pistons (+0.8%)
MLB Miami Marlins +1.5 · +11.2% edge
✅ WON
+$3.42
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins
Final: Baltimore Orioles 3 @ Miami Marlins 4. Model projected: Miami Marlins 4.0, Baltimore Orioles 3.6. Covered +1.5 — actual margin +1.0.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Max Meyer: ERA 2.68 vs xFIP 3.29 over 37 IP (severity 0.33) — Miami Marlins ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Max Meyer FIP 2.79 / xFIP 3.29 | K/9: 9.7
NBA Under 210.5 · +9.8% edge
❌ LOST
$3.78
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Final: Los Angeles Lakers 107 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 125. Actual total 232 vs line 210.5 (over by 21.5). Model projected 206.6.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Athletics +1.5 · +8.6% edge
✅ WON
+$2.52
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies
Final: Athletics 12 @ Philadelphia Phillies 1. Model projected: Philadelphia Phillies 4.5, Athletics 4.5. Covered +1.5 — actual margin -11.0.
✦ Andrew Painter FIP 3.54 / xFIP 3.86 | K/9: 8.7
✦ J.T. Ginn FIP 4.85 / xFIP 4.36 | K/9: 7.1
PARLAY Detroit Pistons (ML) + Under 215.5 · +20.9% edge
✅ WON
+$6.69
Detroit Pistons (ML) + Under 215.5
✅ Detroit Pistons (Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons) · ✅ Under 215.5 (Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons)
PARLAY Cleveland Guardians +1.5 + Under 9.5 · +9.8% edge
❌ LOST
$1.28
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 + Under 9.5
✅ Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals) · ❌ Under 9.5 (Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals)
⚡ Pick Changes Since Morning Run
⚡ Parlay updated: 'New York Knicks +1.5 + Under 214.5' (+40.3%) → 'New York Knicks +3.5 + Under 214.5' (+41.9%). Reason: new parlay has 41.9% edge vs 40.3%
⚡ Prop updated: Quentin Grimes — Points Over → Jorge Soler — HRR Over. Reason: Better edge: 53.2% vs 36.9%
⚡ Prop updated: Luke Kornet — Rebounds Over → Nolan Schanuel — HRR Over. Reason: Better edge: 48.6% vs 34.2%
🏀 NBA 4 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
New York Knicks ↓
NBA  ML  ·  New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
HIGH
Mkt 40.3% → Model 90.0% +49.7% edge ▾
Market
40.3%
Model
90.0%
Edge
+49.7%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Philadelphia 76ers (+2%)
Rating edge: New York Knicks (blended NetRtg diff -22.1)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Philadelphia 76ers injury impact (-0.6%)
New York Knicks injuries benefit Philadelphia 76ers (+1.9%)
Model projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 102 — New York Knicks 105
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: OffRtg 115.9 | DefRtg 116.1 | NetRtg -0.2
New York Knicks: OffRtg 116.5 | DefRtg 110.1 | NetRtg 6.3
Philadelphia 76ers last 14 days: NetRtg -6.7 | Win% 43%
New York Knicks last 14 days: NetRtg 28.2 | Win% 100%
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1 | New York Knicks: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Philadelphia 76ers — Joel Embiid (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Knicks — OG Anunoby (F): OUT
San Antonio Spurs -5.5 ↓
NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
HIGH
Mkt 50.2% → Model 75.3% +25.2% edge ▾
Market
50.2%
Model
75.3%
Edge
+25.2%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Minnesota Timberwolves (+2%)
Rating edge: San Antonio Spurs (blended NetRtg diff -14.1)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Minnesota Timberwolves injury impact (-3.7%)
San Antonio Spurs injuries benefit Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.9%)
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: OffRtg 118.0 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 3.4
San Antonio Spurs: OffRtg 119.8 | DefRtg 111.5 | NetRtg 8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves last 14 days: NetRtg -4.0 | Win% 60%
San Antonio Spurs last 14 days: NetRtg 17.6 | Win% 80%
Rest days — Minnesota Timberwolves: 1 | San Antonio Spurs: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Ayo Dosunmu (G): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Anthony Edwards (G): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Donte DiVincenzo (G): OUT
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — David Jones Garcia (F): OUT
Under 214.5 ↓
NBA New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 72.1% +19.6% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
72.1%
Edge
+19.6%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 102 — New York Knicks 105
Model expected total: 206.9 vs market line 214.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
Under 216.5 ↓
NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
HIGH
Mkt 52.1% → Model 70.9% +18.7% edge ▾
Market
52.1%
Model
70.9%
Edge
+18.7%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106
Model expected total: 209.4 vs market line 216.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves OffRtg: 118.0 vs San Antonio Spurs DefRtg: 111.5
San Antonio Spurs OffRtg: 119.8 vs Minnesota Timberwolves DefRtg: 114.6
Props
▾
Quentin Grimes
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Points Over
HIGH
Over 6.5 56.5% · Model 11.6 · +34.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 6.5
Book Odds
56.5%
Model Proj
11.6
Edge
+34.9%
Draftkings: Over 6.5 at 56.5%. Model projects 11.6.
Key Signals
Market: Over 6.5 at 56.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.6 → edge +34.9%
New York Knicks allows 110.1 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
Quentin Grimes: 13.4 PPG / 3.6 RPG / 3.3 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Luke Kornet
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 48.1% · Model 5.5 · +33.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
48.1%
Model Proj
5.5
Edge
+33.4%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 48.1%. Model projects 5.5.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 48.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.5 → edge +33.4%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Luke Kornet: 6.5 PPG / 6.1 RPG / 1.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Ayo Dosunmu
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
HIGH
Over 9.5 51.9% · Model 13.0 · +25.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 9.5
Book Odds
51.9%
Model Proj
13.0
Edge
+25.9%
Draftkings: Over 9.5 at 51.9%. Model projects 13.0.
Key Signals
Market: Over 9.5 at 51.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 13.0 → edge +25.8%
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Ayo Dosunmu: 14.8 PPG / 3.4 RPG / 3.6 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Points Over
HIGH
Over 9.5 49.3% · Model 11.9 · +24.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 9.5
Book Odds
49.3%
Model Proj
11.9
Edge
+24.4%
Draftkings: Over 9.5 at 49.3%. Model projects 11.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 9.5 at 49.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.9 → edge +24.4%
Minnesota Timberwolves allows 114.6 PPG (above avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Anthony Edwards
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
HIGH
Over 22.5 54.8% · Model 30.1 · +24.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 22.5
Book Odds
54.8%
Model Proj
30.1
Edge
+24.0%
Draftkings: Over 22.5 at 54.8%. Model projects 30.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 22.5 at 54.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 30.1 → edge +24.0%
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Anthony Edwards: 28.8 PPG / 0.0 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 59.7% · Model 4.8 · +18.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
59.7%
Model Proj
4.8
Edge
+18.1%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 59.7%. Model projects 4.8.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 59.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.8 → edge +18.1%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Houston Astros ↓
MLB  ML  ·  Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
HIGH
Mkt 46.4% → Model 68.2% +21.8% edge ▾
Market
46.4%
Model
68.2%
Edge
+21.8%
Key Signals
Mike Burrows FIP 5.11 / xFIP 3.68 | K/9: 8.7
Park factor 1.12 (hitter-friendly: Great American Ball Park)
Cincinnati Reds injury impact (-6.0%)
Houston Astros injury impact (-2.2%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Jeremie Rehak: high-scoring games (run factor 1.05x avg) — leans Over
👨‍⚖️ Jeremie Rehak: tight strike zone (K factor 0.96x avg) — favors hitters / walks up
🌬️ Wind 13 mph blowing IN (SW) at Cincinnati — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
⚠ Cincinnati Reds schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Cincinnati Reds 4.2 — Houston Astros 5.4
Research & Stats
🔵 Nick Lodolo (home): stats unavailable
🔴 Mike Burrows: ERA 5.97 | FIP 5.11 / xFIP 3.68 | K/9 8.7 | BB/9 3.1 | IP 37
Cincinnati Reds offense: OPS 0.693 | AVG 0.220 | R/G 4.11
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.767 | AVG 0.261 | R/G 4.87
Bullpen ERA — Cincinnati Reds: 4.59 | Houston Astros: 5.82
Venue: Great American Ball Park — park factor 1.12 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Rhett Lowder (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Connor Burns (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Josh Staumont (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Carson Spiers (SP): OUT
⚕ Houston Astros — Lance McCullers Jr. (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Walker Janek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Lucas Spence (OF): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Jeremie Rehak — run factor 1.05x | K factor 0.96x | Hitter-friendly zone
🌤 Weather (Cincinnati): 69°F | Wind 13 mph SW (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Cincinnati Reds 4.25 | Houston Astros 5.38
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
MLB New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
HIGH
Mkt 59.4% → Model 75.0% +15.6% edge ▾
Market
59.4%
Model
75.0%
Edge
+15.6%
Key Signals
Jacob Misiorowski FIP 2.65 / xFIP 2.24 | K/9: 14.0
Max Fried FIP 2.66 / xFIP 3.86 | K/9: 7.4
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Max Fried: ERA 2.39 vs xFIP 3.86 over 52 IP (severity 0.51) — New York Yankees ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.02 (pitcher-friendly: American Family Field)
Milwaukee Brewers injury impact (-1.2%)
New York Yankees injury impact (-4.2%)
⚠ Milwaukee Brewers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Yankees schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.4 — New York Yankees 4.1
Research & Stats
🔵 Jacob Misiorowski: ERA 2.84 | FIP 2.65 / xFIP 2.24 | K/9 14.0 | BB/9 3.6 | IP 38
🔴 Max Fried: ERA 2.39 | FIP 2.66 / xFIP 3.86 | K/9 7.4 | BB/9 2.6 | IP 52
Milwaukee Brewers offense: OPS 0.696 | AVG 0.243 | R/G 5.17
New York Yankees offense: OPS 0.794 | AVG 0.244 | R/G 5.50
Bullpen ERA — Milwaukee Brewers: 3.60 | New York Yankees: 3.04
Venue: American Family Field — park factor 1.02 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — Gerson Garabito (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — J.B. Bukauskas (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — Garrett Mitchell (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Travis MacGregor (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Ryan Weathers (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Ben Hess (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
Model expected runs: Milwaukee Brewers 4.39 | New York Yankees 4.06
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Colorado Rockies +1.5
MLB Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
HIGH
Mkt 52.1% → Model 65.2% +13.1% edge ▾
Market
52.1%
Model
65.2%
Edge
+13.1%
Key Signals
Jesús Luzardo FIP 2.63 / xFIP 2.11 | K/9: 11.4
Chase Dollander FIP 3.31 / xFIP 3.13 | K/9: 10.2
Park factor 1.10 (hitter-friendly: Citizens Bank Park)
Philadelphia Phillies injury impact (-2.3%)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Vic Carapazza: high-scoring games (run factor 1.07x avg) — leans Over
👨‍⚖️ Vic Carapazza: tight strike zone (K factor 0.94x avg) — favors hitters / walks up
🌬️ Wind 14 mph blowing OUT (W) at Philadelphia — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
⚠ Philadelphia Phillies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 — Colorado Rockies 4.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Jesús Luzardo: ERA 5.09 | FIP 2.63 / xFIP 2.11 | K/9 11.4 | BB/9 2.0 | IP 40
🔴 Chase Dollander: ERA 3.38 | FIP 3.31 / xFIP 3.13 | K/9 10.2 | BB/9 2.9 | IP 37
Philadelphia Phillies offense: OPS 0.682 | AVG 0.231 | R/G 3.89
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.727 | AVG 0.252 | R/G 4.29
Bullpen ERA — Philadelphia Phillies: 4.67 | Colorado Rockies: 4.67
Venue: Citizens Bank Park — park factor 1.10 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Keaton Anthony (1B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Rene Pinto (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Christian McGowan (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Daniel Robert (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Andrew Bechtold (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Mark Kolozsvary (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Vic Carapazza — run factor 1.07x | K factor 0.94x | Hitter-friendly, leans Over
🌤 Weather (Philadelphia): 69°F | Wind 14 mph W (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Philadelphia Phillies 4.36 | Colorado Rockies 4.04
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Under 9.5
MLB New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
HIGH
Mkt 53.0% → Model 63.3% +10.4% edge ▾
Market
53.0%
Model
63.3%
Edge
+10.4%
Key Signals
Ryne Nelson FIP 5.58 / xFIP 4.74 | K/9: 8.1
Nolan McLean FIP 2.1 / xFIP 2.27 | K/9: 11.7
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Chase Field)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-3.9%)
New York Mets injury impact (-5.0%)
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Mets schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.4 — New York Mets 4.0
Model expected total: 7.5 vs line 9.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Ryne Nelson: ERA 6.61 | FIP 5.58 / xFIP 4.74 | K/9 8.1 | BB/9 3.8 | IP 31
🔴 Nolan McLean: ERA 2.97 | FIP 2.1 / xFIP 2.27 | K/9 11.7 | BB/9 2.5 | IP 39
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.704 | AVG 0.242 | R/G 4.47
New York Mets offense: OPS 0.644 | AVG 0.229 | R/G 3.62
Bullpen ERA — Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.78 | New York Mets: 4.01
Venue: Chase Field — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Joe Jacques (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Grae Kessinger (3B): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Nate Lavender (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Kevin Herget (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Nick Burdi (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Jose Rojas (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Mike Tauchman (RF): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Robert Stock (RP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Ryan Wills (near-neutral tendencies)
Model expected runs: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.42 | New York Mets 4.05
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Los Angeles Angels +1.5
MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
HIGH
Mkt 59.9% → Model 68.3% +8.4% edge ▾
Market
59.9%
Model
68.3%
Edge
+8.4%
Key Signals
Dylan Cease FIP 2.02 / xFIP 2.53 | K/9: 13.2
Reid Detmers FIP 2.65 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9: 9.9
Park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly: Rogers Centre)
Toronto Blue Jays injury impact (-1.5%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Mike Estabrook: high-scoring games (run factor 1.05x avg) — leans Over
👨‍⚖️ Mike Estabrook: tight strike zone (K factor 0.96x avg) — favors hitters / walks up
⚠ Toronto Blue Jays schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Los Angeles Angels schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.0 — Los Angeles Angels 3.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Dylan Cease: ERA 3.05 | FIP 2.02 / xFIP 2.53 | K/9 13.2 | BB/9 4.3 | IP 38
🔴 Reid Detmers: ERA 4.28 | FIP 2.65 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9 9.9 | BB/9 2.0 | IP 40
Toronto Blue Jays offense: OPS 0.690 | AVG 0.249 | R/G 3.97
Los Angeles Angels offense: OPS 0.714 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.47
Bullpen ERA — Toronto Blue Jays: 4.23 | Los Angeles Angels: 4.47
Venue: Rogers Centre — park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Geovanny Jesus Planchart (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Chay Yeager (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — CJ Stubbs (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Javen Coleman (P): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Mike Estabrook — run factor 1.05x | K factor 0.96x | Small zone, hitter-friendly
Model expected runs: Toronto Blue Jays 4.03 | Los Angeles Angels 3.85
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Jorge Soler
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 43.5% · Model 4.88 · +53.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.5%
Model Proj
4.88
Edge
+53.2%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.5%. Model: 4.88.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.88 → edge +53.2%
vs Dylan Cease (FIP 2.02) at Rogers Centre (park factor 1.05)
Research & Stats
Jorge Soler: AVG 0.238 | OBP 0.342 | H/G 0.85 | TB/G 1.71 | HR/G 0.235 | HRR/G 2.23 (146 PA)
Facing Dylan Cease: FIP 2.02
Park factor 1.05 at Rogers Centre
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 39.4% · Model 4.88 · +51.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
39.4%
Model Proj
4.88
Edge
+51.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 39.4%. Model: 4.88.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 39.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.88 → edge +52.0%
vs Nolan McLean (FIP 2.10) at Chase Field (park factor 1.01)
Research & Stats
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.360 | OBP 0.381 | H/G 1.41 | TB/G 2.41 | HR/G 0.207 | HRR/G 2.83 (120 PA)
Facing Nolan McLean: FIP 2.10
Park factor 1.01 at Chase Field
Jo Adell
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 43.9% · Model 4.25 · +51.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.9%
Model Proj
4.25
Edge
+51.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.9%. Model: 4.25.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.25 → edge +51.9%
vs Dylan Cease (FIP 2.02) at Rogers Centre (park factor 1.05)
Research & Stats
Jo Adell: AVG 0.258 | OBP 0.298 | H/G 1.03 | TB/G 1.40 | HR/G 0.105 | HRR/G 1.95 (161 PA)
Facing Dylan Cease: FIP 2.02
Park factor 1.05 at Rogers Centre
Zach Neto
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 46.5% · Model 4.42 · +50.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
46.5%
Model Proj
4.42
Edge
+50.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 46.5%. Model: 4.42.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 46.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.42 → edge +50.1%
vs Dylan Cease (FIP 2.02) at Rogers Centre (park factor 1.05)
Research & Stats
Zach Neto: AVG 0.221 | OBP 0.335 | H/G 0.87 | TB/G 1.60 | HR/G 0.158 | HRR/G 2.03 (176 PA)
Facing Dylan Cease: FIP 2.02
Park factor 1.05 at Rogers Centre
Brice Turang
MLB  Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Yankees · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 47.6% · Model 4.38 · +49.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
47.6%
Model Proj
4.38
Edge
+49.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 47.6%. Model: 4.38.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 47.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.38 → edge +49.6%
vs Max Fried (FIP 2.66) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Brice Turang: AVG 0.305 | OBP 0.439 | H/G 1.12 | TB/G 1.91 | HR/G 0.156 | HRR/G 2.72 (149 PA)
Facing Max Fried: FIP 2.66
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Nolan Schanuel
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 47.4% · Model 4.24 · +48.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
47.4%
Model Proj
4.24
Edge
+48.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 47.4%. Model: 4.24.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 47.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.24 → edge +48.6%
vs Dylan Cease (FIP 2.02) at Rogers Centre (park factor 1.05)
Research & Stats
Nolan Schanuel: AVG 0.255 | OBP 0.307 | H/G 1.00 | TB/G 1.51 | HR/G 0.086 | HRR/G 1.94 (150 PA)
Facing Dylan Cease: FIP 2.02
Park factor 1.05 at Rogers Centre
🏒 NHL 3 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Anaheim Ducks +1.5
NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks
MEDIUM
Mkt 70.5% → Model 81.5% +10.9% edge ▾
Market
70.5%
Model
81.5%
Edge
+10.9%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Anaheim Ducks (+2%)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Anaheim Ducks injury impact (-1.5%)
Research & Stats
Anaheim Ducks last 14 days: NetRtg 0.67 | Win% 67%
Vegas Golden Knights last 14 days: NetRtg 0.67 | Win% 67%
Rest days — Anaheim Ducks: 2 | Vegas Golden Knights: 2
⚕ Anaheim Ducks — Radko Gudas (D): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Montreal Canadiens +1.5
NHL Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
MEDIUM
Mkt 66.5% → Model 73.3% +6.8% edge ▾
Market
66.5%
Model
73.3%
Edge
+6.8%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Buffalo Sabres (+2%)
Rating edge: Buffalo Sabres (blended goal-diff +1.33)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Buffalo Sabres injury impact (-4.0%)
Research & Stats
Buffalo Sabres last 14 days: NetRtg 2.25 | Win% 75%
Montreal Canadiens last 14 days: NetRtg -0.17 | Win% 50%
Rest days — Buffalo Sabres: 2 | Montreal Canadiens: 2
⚕ Buffalo Sabres — Sam Carrick (C): OUT
⚕ Buffalo Sabres — Noah Ostlund (C): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Buffalo Sabres
NHL  ML  ·  Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
MEDIUM
Mkt 54.7% → Model 60.2% +5.5% edge ▾
Market
54.7%
Model
60.2%
Edge
+5.5%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Buffalo Sabres (+2%)
Rating edge: Buffalo Sabres (blended goal-diff +1.33)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Buffalo Sabres injury impact (-4.0%)
Research & Stats
Buffalo Sabres last 14 days: NetRtg 2.25 | Win% 75%
Montreal Canadiens last 14 days: NetRtg -0.17 | Win% 50%
Rest days — Buffalo Sabres: 2 | Montreal Canadiens: 2
⚕ Buffalo Sabres — Sam Carrick (C): OUT
⚕ Buffalo Sabres — Noah Ostlund (C): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Budget Allocation top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
New York Knicks (ML) ↑
NBA
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
+49.7%
—
 41
20.1%
$20.06
+$20.94
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢46.9
Buy contracts41
Total cost (incl. commission)$20.06
Profit if win+$20.94
Loss if lose-$20.06
Expected value +$16.84
2
San Antonio Spurs -5.5 ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
+25.2%
—
 25
13.1%
$13.13
+$11.87
Robinhood Action — San Antonio Spurs -5.5
Contract price (est.)¢50.5
Buy contracts25
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.13
Profit if win+$11.87
Loss if lose-$13.13
Expected value +$6.35
3
Houston Astros (ML) ↑
MLB
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
+21.8%
—
 21
9.8%
$9.78
+$11.22
Robinhood Action — Houston Astros (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢44.6
Buy contracts21
Total cost (incl. commission)$9.78
Profit if win+$11.22
Loss if lose-$9.78
Expected value +$4.41
4
Under 214.5 ↑
NBA
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
+19.6%
—
 18
9.8%
$9.76
+$8.24
Robinhood Action — Under 214.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.2
Buy contracts18
Total cost (incl. commission)$9.76
Profit if win+$8.24
Loss if lose-$9.76
Expected value +$3.22
5
Under 216.5 ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
+18.7%
—
 16
8.8%
$8.75
+$7.25
Robinhood Action — Under 216.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.7
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.75
Profit if win+$7.25
Loss if lose-$8.75
Expected value +$2.59
P1
New York Knicks +3.5 + Under 214.5
Parlay
+41.9%
—
 24
6.7%
$6.73
+$17.27
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks +3.5 + Under 214.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.1
Buy contracts24
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.73
Profit if win+$17.27
P2
New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
Parlay
+48.3%
—
 26
8.4%
$8.41
+$17.59
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢30.3
Buy contracts26
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.41
Profit if win+$17.59
Deployed $76.62 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $23.38
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
132
Model Hit Rate
45.5%
Avg Error
-1.7
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 33 33.3% 23.1 19.7 -3.4
Rebounds 25 48.0% 10.2 9.0 -1.2
Assists 10 40.0% 8.6 7.2 -1.4
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 24 75.0% 1.0 1.3 +0.3
HRR 13 30.8% 3.8 1.1 -2.8
Total Bases 5 20.0% 3.9 1.4 -2.5
Hits 1 0.0% 2.8 1.0 -1.8
HIGH confidence
45.8%
38H / 45M (83 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
MLB
25.0%
3H / 9M (12 settled)
Avg err: -2.5
NBA
50.0%
4H / 4M (8 settled)
Avg err: -1.2
▶ Hit Rate Trend (132 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-01 05-07
Model Performance
Record
49W–36L
Win Rate
57.6%
Total PnL
$+134.49
ROI
18.9%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
47W–35L (57.3%)
$+142.08
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
NBA
16W–8L (66.7%)
$+65.88
MLB
23W–15L (60.5%)
$+22.75
PARLAYS
10W–13L (43.5%)
$+45.86
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (86 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+134.49 total
$+137 $0 $-54 04-25 05-02 05-07
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-02 05-07
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 14 59.9% 53.8% -6.1%
15%+ 69 68.9% 56.5% -12.4%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.