Daily Betting Report

Saturday, May 09, 2026 · Generated May 09, 2026 at 08:58 AM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 15 games  |  NHL: 2 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 1,937 used · 18,063 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Friday, May 08 6W–1L +$78.38
NBA Under 216.5 · +18.7% edge
❌ LOST
$8.75
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Final: San Antonio Spurs 115 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 108. Actual total 223 vs line 216.5 (over by 6.5). Model projected 209.4.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
NBA Under 214.5 · +19.6% edge
✅ WON
+$8.24
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Final: New York Knicks 108 @ Philadelphia 76ers 94. Actual total 202 vs line 214.5 (under by 12.5). Model projected 206.9.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Houston Astros ML · +21.8% edge
✅ WON
+$11.22
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
Final: Houston Astros 10 @ Cincinnati Reds 0. Model projected: Cincinnati Reds 4.2, Houston Astros 5.4. Model's directional call was correct.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 13 mph blowing IN (SW) at Cincinnati — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
✦ Mike Burrows FIP 5.11 / xFIP 3.68 | K/9: 8.7
NBA San Antonio Spurs -5.5 · +25.2% edge
✅ WON
+$11.87
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Final: San Antonio Spurs 115 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 108. Model win probability: 75.3%. Actual margin -7 (needed -5.5).
✦ Minnesota Timberwolves injury impact (-3.7%)
✦ San Antonio Spurs injuries benefit Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.9%)
NBA New York Knicks ML · +49.7% edge
✅ WON
+$20.94
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Final: New York Knicks 108 @ Philadelphia 76ers 94. Model win probability: 90.0%.
✦ Philadelphia 76ers injury impact (-0.6%)
✦ New York Knicks injuries benefit Philadelphia 76ers (+1.9%)
PARLAY New York Knicks +3.5 + Under 214.5 · +41.9% edge
✅ WON
+$17.27
New York Knicks +3.5 + Under 214.5
✅ New York Knicks +3.5 (New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers) · ✅ Under 214.5 (New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers)
PARLAY New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML) · +48.3% edge
✅ WON
+$17.59
New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
✅ New York Knicks (New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers) · ✅ San Antonio Spurs (San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves)
🏀 NBA 4 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Detroit Pistons +4.5 ↓
NBA Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
HIGH
Mkt 49.2% → Model 79.0% +29.8% edge ▾
Market
49.2%
Model
79.0%
Edge
+29.8%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Cleveland Cavaliers (+2%)
Rating edge: Detroit Pistons (blended NetRtg diff -6.5)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Cleveland Cavaliers injury impact (-0.8%)
Detroit Pistons injuries benefit Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.2%)
Model projected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 103 — Detroit Pistons 105
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: OffRtg 119.5 | DefRtg 115.4 | NetRtg 4.1
Detroit Pistons: OffRtg 117.8 | DefRtg 109.6 | NetRtg 8.2
Cleveland Cavaliers last 14 days: NetRtg -1.5 | Win% 33%
Detroit Pistons last 14 days: NetRtg 7.0 | Win% 71%
Rest days — Cleveland Cavaliers: 1 | Detroit Pistons: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Cleveland Cavaliers — Sam Merrill (G): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Kevin Huerter (G): OUT
Under 211.5 ↓
NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 64.8% +12.3% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
64.8%
Edge
+12.3%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Los Angeles Lakers 101 — Oklahoma City Thunder 105
Model expected total: 206.6 vs market line 211.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Los Angeles Lakers OffRtg: 116.3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder DefRtg: 107.9
Oklahoma City Thunder OffRtg: 119.0 vs Los Angeles Lakers DefRtg: 114.6
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5
NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
MEDIUM
Mkt 50.2% → Model 59.6% +9.4% edge ▾
Market
50.2%
Model
59.6%
Edge
+9.4%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Los Angeles Lakers (+2%)
Rating edge: Oklahoma City Thunder (blended NetRtg diff -16.6)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Los Angeles Lakers injury impact (-2.9%)
Oklahoma City Thunder injuries benefit Los Angeles Lakers (+4.0%)
Model projected score: Los Angeles Lakers 101 — Oklahoma City Thunder 105
Research & Stats
Los Angeles Lakers: OffRtg 116.3 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 1.8
Oklahoma City Thunder: OffRtg 119.0 | DefRtg 107.9 | NetRtg 11.1
Los Angeles Lakers last 14 days: NetRtg -8.2 | Win% 20%
Oklahoma City Thunder last 14 days: NetRtg 14.2 | Win% 100%
Rest days — Los Angeles Lakers: 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Los Angeles Lakers — Jarred Vanderbilt (F): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Los Angeles Lakers — Luka Doncic (G): OUT
⚕ Oklahoma City Thunder — Jalen Williams (G): OUT
⚕ Oklahoma City Thunder — Thomas Sorber (C): OUT
⚠ Oklahoma City Thunder injury credibility cap applied — season stats include injured players; model probability anchored near market (83% vs raw 83%)
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Under 211.5
NBA Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
MEDIUM
Mkt 52.2% → Model 58.9% +6.6% edge ▾
Market
52.2%
Model
58.9%
Edge
+6.6%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 103 — Detroit Pistons 105
Model expected total: 208.6 vs market line 211.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers OffRtg: 119.5 vs Detroit Pistons DefRtg: 109.6
Detroit Pistons OffRtg: 117.8 vs Cleveland Cavaliers DefRtg: 115.4
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Jaylon Tyson
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
HIGH
Over 7.5 50.5% · Model 11.4 · +33.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 7.5
Book Odds
50.5%
Model Proj
11.4
Edge
+33.5%
Draftkings: Over 7.5 at 50.5%. Model projects 11.4.
Key Signals
Market: Over 7.5 at 50.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.4 → edge +33.5%
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jaylon Tyson: 13.2 PPG / 5.1 RPG / 2.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jaylin Williams
NBA  Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 51.2% · Model 5.0 · +27.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
51.2%
Model Proj
5.0
Edge
+27.8%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 51.2%. Model projects 5.0.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 51.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.0 → edge +27.8%
Research & Stats
Oklahoma City Thunder: Net RTG +11.1 | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 107.9
Los Angeles Lakers: Net RTG +1.8 | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 114.6
Jaylin Williams: 7.2 PPG / 5.5 RPG / 2.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Marcus Smart
NBA  Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Steals Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 51.0% · Model 2.62 · +26.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
51.0%
Model Proj
2.62
Edge
+26.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 51.0%. Model projects 2.62.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 51.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.62 → edge +26.8%
Research & Stats
Los Angeles Lakers: Net RTG +1.8 | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 114.6
Oklahoma City Thunder: Net RTG +11.1 | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 107.9
Marcus Smart: 9.3 PPG / 2.8 RPG / 3.0 APG / 2.62 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Donovan Mitchell
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Assists Over
HIGH
Over 4.5 44.1% · Model 5.5 · +24.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 4.5
Book Odds
44.1%
Model Proj
5.5
Edge
+24.4%
Draftkings: Over 4.5 at 44.1%. Model projects 5.5.
Key Signals
Market: Over 4.5 at 44.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.5 → edge +24.5%
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Donovan Mitchell: 27.9 PPG / 4.5 RPG / 5.7 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 2.9 3PM (40 games)
Rui Hachimura
NBA  Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Threes Over
HIGH
Over 2.5 42.6% · Model 3.1 · +22.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 2.5
Book Odds
42.6%
Model Proj
3.1
Edge
+22.3%
Draftkings: Over 2.5 at 42.6%. Model projects 3.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 2.5 at 42.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.1 → edge +22.3%
Research & Stats
Los Angeles Lakers: Net RTG +1.8 | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 114.6
Oklahoma City Thunder: Net RTG +11.1 | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 107.9
Rui Hachimura: 11.5 PPG / 3.3 RPG / 0.8 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 3.0 3PM (40 games)
Jarrett Allen
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
HIGH
Over 11.5 52.4% · Model 14.4 · +21.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 11.5
Book Odds
52.4%
Model Proj
14.4
Edge
+21.1%
Draftkings: Over 11.5 at 52.4%. Model projects 14.4.
Key Signals
Market: Over 11.5 at 52.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 14.4 → edge +21.1%
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: starter adjustment applied (-4%)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jarrett Allen: 15.4 PPG / 8.5 RPG / 1.8 APG / 0.00 SPG / 2.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↓
MLB Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
HIGH
Mkt 55.4% → Model 72.3% +17.0% edge ▾
Market
55.4%
Model
72.3%
Edge
+17.0%
Key Signals
Aaron Nola FIP 4.2 / xFIP 3.29 | K/9: 9.7
Kyle Freeland FIP 4.32 / xFIP 3.33 | K/9: 8.6
Park factor 1.10 (hitter-friendly: Citizens Bank Park)
Philadelphia Phillies injury impact (-2.3%)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
🌬️ Wind 12 mph blowing OUT (SW) at Philadelphia — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Philadelphia (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
⚠ Philadelphia Phillies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.2 — Colorado Rockies 4.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Aaron Nola: ERA 5.06 | FIP 4.2 / xFIP 3.29 | K/9 9.7 | BB/9 3.2 | IP 37
🔴 Kyle Freeland: ERA 5.04 | FIP 4.32 / xFIP 3.33 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 2.9 | IP 25
Philadelphia Phillies offense: OPS 0.684 | AVG 0.231 | R/G 3.97
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.731 | AVG 0.254 | R/G 4.41
Bullpen ERA — Philadelphia Phillies: 4.73 | Colorado Rockies: 4.70
Venue: Citizens Bank Park — park factor 1.10 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Keaton Anthony (1B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Rene Pinto (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Christian McGowan (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Daniel Robert (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Andrew Bechtold (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Mark Kolozsvary (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Philadelphia): 64°F | Wind 12 mph SW (blowing out) | Precip 100%
Model expected runs: Philadelphia Phillies 4.21 | Colorado Rockies 4.48
Atlanta Braves +1.5 ↓
MLB Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
HIGH
Mkt 56.0% → Model 66.0% +10.1% edge ▾
Market
56.0%
Model
66.0%
Edge
+10.1%
Key Signals
Spencer Strider FIP 8.36 / xFIP 5.43 | K/9: 17.4
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
🌡️ Cool (61°F) at Los Angeles — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Atlanta Braves schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.0 — Atlanta Braves 4.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Blake Snell (home): stats unavailable
🔴 Spencer Strider: ERA 8.1 | FIP 8.36 / xFIP 5.43 | K/9 17.4 | BB/9 14.5 | IP 3
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.792 | AVG 0.271 | R/G 5.24
Atlanta Braves offense: OPS 0.787 | AVG 0.270 | R/G 5.49
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.10 | Atlanta Braves: 3.20
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Blake Burkhalter (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Jorge Mateo (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Los Angeles): 61°F | Wind 3 mph SSE (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.00 | Atlanta Braves 4.81
Chicago White Sox +1.5 ↓
MLB Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
HIGH
Mkt 56.9% → Model 65.6% +8.7% edge ▾
Market
56.9%
Model
65.6%
Edge
+8.7%
Key Signals
Anthony Kay FIP 5.97 / xFIP 4.97 | K/9: 6.0
Luis Castillo FIP 4.05 / xFIP 4.05 | K/9: 8.2
Park factor 0.95 (pitcher-friendly: Rate Field)
Chicago White Sox injury impact (-1.4%)
Seattle Mariners injury impact (-1.4%)
🌬️ Cross wind 13 mph (WSW) at Chicago — minimal scoring impact
🌡️ Cool (59°F) at Chicago — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Chicago White Sox schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Seattle Mariners schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago White Sox 4.1 — Seattle Mariners 4.3
Research & Stats
🔵 Anthony Kay: ERA 5.7 | FIP 5.97 / xFIP 4.97 | K/9 6.0 | BB/9 4.5 | IP 30
🔴 Luis Castillo: ERA 6.29 | FIP 4.05 / xFIP 4.05 | K/9 8.2 | BB/9 3.4 | IP 34
Chicago White Sox offense: OPS 0.707 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 4.29
Seattle Mariners offense: OPS 0.707 | AVG 0.232 | R/G 4.23
Bullpen ERA — Chicago White Sox: 4.44 | Seattle Mariners: 3.75
Venue: Rate Field — park factor 0.95 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Mason Adams (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Tim Elko (1B): OUT
⚕ Seattle Mariners — Teddy McGraw (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 59°F | Wind 13 mph WSW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Chicago White Sox 4.06 | Seattle Mariners 4.35
Under 9.5
MLB Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
HIGH
Mkt 53.3% → Model 60.7% +7.4% edge ▾
Market
53.3%
Model
60.7%
Edge
+7.4%
Key Signals
Michael Wacha FIP 4.06 / xFIP 4.30 | K/9: 7.3
Burch Smith FIP 1.4 / xFIP 2.22 | K/9: 13.0
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Michael Wacha: ERA 3.05 vs xFIP 4.30 over 44 IP (severity 0.56) — Kansas City Royals ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Burch Smith: ERA 1.59 vs xFIP 2.22 over 11 IP (severity 0.54) — Detroit Tigers ML may be overpriced by market
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-2.2%)
Detroit Tigers injury impact (-1.7%)
🌬️ Cross wind 10 mph (WSW) at Kansas City — minimal scoring impact
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Detroit Tigers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Kansas City Royals 3.8 — Detroit Tigers 4.4
Model expected total: 8.3 vs line 9.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Michael Wacha: ERA 3.05 | FIP 4.06 / xFIP 4.30 | K/9 7.3 | BB/9 3.1 | IP 44
🔴 Burch Smith: ERA 1.59 | FIP 1.4 / xFIP 2.22 | K/9 13.0 | BB/9 3.2 | IP 11
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.710 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.13
Detroit Tigers offense: OPS 0.719 | AVG 0.244 | R/G 4.31
Bullpen ERA — Kansas City Royals: 4.31 | Detroit Tigers: 3.89
Venue: Kauffman Stadium — neutral park
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Troy Watson (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Dugan Darnell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Kansas City): 66°F | Wind 10 mph WSW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Kansas City Royals 3.84 | Detroit Tigers 4.44
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Over 8.5
MLB Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
HIGH
Mkt 54.3% → Model 61.5% +7.2% edge ▾
Market
54.3%
Model
61.5%
Edge
+7.2%
Key Signals
Spencer Strider FIP 8.36 / xFIP 5.43 | K/9: 17.4
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
🌡️ Cool (61°F) at Los Angeles — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Atlanta Braves schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.0 — Atlanta Braves 4.8
Model expected total: 9.8 vs line 8.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Blake Snell (home): stats unavailable
🔴 Spencer Strider: ERA 8.1 | FIP 8.36 / xFIP 5.43 | K/9 17.4 | BB/9 14.5 | IP 3
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.792 | AVG 0.271 | R/G 5.24
Atlanta Braves offense: OPS 0.787 | AVG 0.270 | R/G 5.49
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.10 | Atlanta Braves: 3.20
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Blake Burkhalter (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Jorge Mateo (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Los Angeles): 61°F | Wind 3 mph SSE (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.00 | Atlanta Braves 4.81
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Jake Bauers
MLB  Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Yankees · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 43.3% · Model 4.67 · +52.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.3%
Model Proj
4.67
Edge
+52.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.3%. Model: 4.67.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.67 → edge +52.0%
vs Cam Schlittler (FIP 1.80) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Jake Bauers: AVG 0.259 | OBP 0.338 | H/G 0.91 | TB/G 1.54 | HR/G 0.151 | HRR/G 2.18 (130 PA)
Facing Cam Schlittler: FIP 1.80
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Brice Turang
MLB  Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Yankees · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 44.8% · Model 5.65 · +51.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
44.8%
Model Proj
5.65
Edge
+51.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 44.8%. Model: 5.65.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 44.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.65 → edge +51.6%
vs Cam Schlittler (FIP 1.80) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Brice Turang: AVG 0.295 | OBP 0.428 | H/G 1.09 | TB/G 1.85 | HR/G 0.151 | HRR/G 2.64 (153 PA)
Facing Cam Schlittler: FIP 1.80
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Jonathan Aranda
MLB  Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 44.4% · Model 4.3 · +50.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
44.4%
Model Proj
4.3
Edge
+50.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 44.4%. Model: 4.30.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 44.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.30 → edge +50.1%
vs Payton Tolle (FIP 2.33) at Fenway Park (park factor 1.08)
Research & Stats
Jonathan Aranda: AVG 0.265 | OBP 0.368 | H/G 0.95 | TB/G 1.63 | HR/G 0.184 | HRR/G 2.21 (163 PA)
Facing Payton Tolle: FIP 2.33
Park factor 1.08 at Fenway Park
Jorge Soler
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 46.3% · Model 4.33 · +49.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
46.3%
Model Proj
4.33
Edge
+49.7%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 46.3%. Model: 4.33.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 46.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.33 → edge +49.7%
vs Trey Yesavage (FIP 2.21) at Rogers Centre (park factor 1.05)
Research & Stats
Jorge Soler: AVG 0.230 | OBP 0.333 | H/G 0.83 | TB/G 1.66 | HR/G 0.229 | HRR/G 2.17 (150 PA)
Facing Trey Yesavage: FIP 2.21
Park factor 1.05 at Rogers Centre
William Contreras
MLB  Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Yankees · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 48.5% · Model 5.29 · +49.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
48.5%
Model Proj
5.29
Edge
+49.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 48.5%. Model: 5.29.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 48.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.29 → edge +49.0%
vs Cam Schlittler (FIP 1.80) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
William Contreras: AVG 0.285 | OBP 0.355 | H/G 1.15 | TB/G 1.62 | HR/G 0.088 | HRR/G 2.47 (152 PA)
Facing Cam Schlittler: FIP 1.80
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Jo Adell
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 46.9% · Model 3.89 · +46.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
46.9%
Model Proj
3.89
Edge
+46.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 46.9%. Model: 3.89.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 46.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.89 → edge +46.8%
vs Trey Yesavage (FIP 2.21) at Rogers Centre (park factor 1.05)
Research & Stats
Jo Adell: AVG 0.266 | OBP 0.305 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 1.44 | HR/G 0.103 | HRR/G 1.95 (164 PA)
Facing Trey Yesavage: FIP 2.21
Park factor 1.05 at Rogers Centre
🏒 NHL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Colorado Avalanche
NHL  ML  ·  Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild
MEDIUM
Mkt 54.3% → Model 86.4% +32.0% edge ▾
Market
54.3%
Model
86.4%
Edge
+32.0%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Minnesota Wild (+2%)
Rating edge: Colorado Avalanche (blended goal-diff -1.83)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Minnesota Wild injury impact (-4.7%)
Colorado Avalanche injuries benefit Minnesota Wild (+2.3%)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Wild last 14 days: NetRtg 0.00 | Win% 60%
Colorado Avalanche last 14 days: NetRtg 3.33 | Win% 100%
Rest days — Minnesota Wild: 4 | Colorado Avalanche: 4
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Jonas Brodin (D): OUT
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Joel Eriksson Ek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Zach Bogosian (D): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Wild — Charlie Stramel (C): OUT
⚕ Colorado Avalanche — Josh Manson (D): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Avalanche — Joel Kiviranta (LW): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Carolina Hurricanes
NHL  ML  ·  Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers
MEDIUM
Mkt 63.6% → Model 90.0% +26.4% edge ▾
Market
63.6%
Model
90.0%
Edge
+26.4%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Philadelphia Flyers (+2%)
Rating edge: Carolina Hurricanes (blended goal-diff -2.06)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Philadelphia Flyers injury impact (-5.4%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia Flyers last 14 days: NetRtg -1.50 | Win% 17%
Carolina Hurricanes last 14 days: NetRtg 2.25 | Win% 100%
Rest days — Philadelphia Flyers: 2 | Carolina Hurricanes: 2
⚕ Philadelphia Flyers — Owen Tippett (RW): OUT
⚕ Philadelphia Flyers — Noah Cates (LW): OUT
⚕ Philadelphia Flyers — Nikita Grebenkin (RW): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Budget Allocation top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Detroit Pistons +4.5 ↑
NBA
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
+29.8%
—
 27
13.8%
$13.82
+$13.18
Robinhood Action — Detroit Pistons +4.5
Contract price (est.)¢49.2
Buy contracts27
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.82
Profit if win+$13.18
Loss if lose-$13.82
Expected value +$7.51
2
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↑
MLB
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
+17.0%
—
 15
8.6%
$8.61
+$6.39
Robinhood Action — Colorado Rockies +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢55.4
Buy contracts15
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.61
Profit if win+$6.39
Loss if lose-$8.61
Expected value +$2.24
3
Under 211.5 ↑
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
+12.3%
—
 10
5.5%
$5.45
+$4.55
Robinhood Action — Under 211.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts10
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.45
Profit if win+$4.55
Loss if lose-$5.45
Expected value +$1.03
4
Atlanta Braves +1.5 ↑
MLB
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
+10.1%
—
 8
4.6%
$4.64
+$3.36
Robinhood Action — Atlanta Braves +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢56.0
Buy contracts8
Total cost (incl. commission)$4.64
Profit if win+$3.36
Loss if lose-$4.64
Expected value +$0.64
5
Chicago White Sox +1.5 ↑
MLB
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
+8.7%
—
 6
3.5%
$3.53
+$2.47
Robinhood Action — Chicago White Sox +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢56.9
Buy contracts6
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.53
Profit if win+$2.47
Loss if lose-$3.53
Expected value +$0.40
P1
Detroit Pistons (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
Parlay
+21.7%
—
 18
2.9%
$2.91
+$15.09
Robinhood Action — Detroit Pistons (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢14.1
Buy contracts18
Total cost (incl. commission)$2.91
Profit if win+$15.09
P2
Atlanta Braves +1.5 + Over 8.5
Parlay
+10.2%
—
 4
1.3%
$1.30
+$2.70
Robinhood Action — Atlanta Braves +1.5 + Over 8.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢30.4
Buy contracts4
Total cost (incl. commission)$1.30
Profit if win+$2.70
Deployed $40.26 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $59.74
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
144
Model Hit Rate
45.8%
Avg Error
-1.8
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 36 38.9% 22.7 19.5 -3.2
Rebounds 26 46.2% 10.0 8.8 -1.2
Assists 10 40.0% 8.6 7.2 -1.4
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 24 75.0% 1.0 1.3 +0.3
HRR 20 35.0% 4.0 1.1 -2.9
Total Bases 6 16.7% 4.0 1.3 -2.7
Hits 1 0.0% 2.8 1.0 -1.8
HIGH confidence
46.3%
44H / 51M (95 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
NBA
66.7%
4H / 2M (6 settled)
Avg err: +0.1
MLB
28.6%
4H / 10M (14 settled)
Avg err: -2.8
▶ Hit Rate Trend (144 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-02 05-08
Model Performance
Record
55W–37L
Win Rate
59.8%
Total PnL
$+212.87
ROI
27.0%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
53W–36L (59.6%)
$+220.46
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
NBA
19W–9L (67.9%)
$+98.18
MLB
24W–15L (61.5%)
$+33.97
PARLAYS
12W–13L (48.0%)
$+80.72
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (93 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+212.87 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-02 05-08
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-02 05-08
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 14 59.9% 53.8% -6.1%
15%+ 76 69.5% 59.2% -10.3%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.