Daily Betting Report

Tuesday, May 12, 2026 · Generated May 12, 2026 at 08:58 AM PDT
NBA: 1 game  |  MLB: 15 games  |  NHL: 2 games  |  IPL: 2 matches  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 3,071 used · 16,929 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Monday, May 11 2W–5L $20.24
MLB Los Angeles Angels +1.5 · +16.4% edge
❌ LOST
$8.44
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians
Final: Los Angeles Angels 2 @ Cleveland Guardians 7. Model projected: Cleveland Guardians 3.5, Los Angeles Angels 3.9. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Joey Cantillo: ERA 3.43 vs xFIP 4.10 over 39 IP (severity 0.34) — Cleveland Guardians ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Joey Cantillo FIP 4.43 / xFIP 4.10 | K/9: 8.5
NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5 · +8.6% edge
❌ LOST
$3.12
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 115 @ Los Angeles Lakers 110. Model win probability: 58.5%. Actual margin -5 (needed -12.5).
✦ Los Angeles Lakers injury impact (-2.2%)
✦ Oklahoma City Thunder injuries benefit Los Angeles Lakers (+4.0%)
MLB San Francisco Giants +1.5 · +10.2% edge
✅ WON
+$3.49
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Final: San Francisco Giants 9 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 3. Model projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.2, San Francisco Giants 3.8. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Roki Sasaki FIP 6.64 / xFIP 4.43 | K/9: 8.3
✦ Trevor McDonald FIP 2.77 / xFIP 1.47 | K/9: 10.3
NBA Over 213.5 · +12.7% edge
✅ WON
+$4.59
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Final: Detroit Pistons 103 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 112. Actual total 215 vs line 213.5 (over by 1.5). Model projected 218.4.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
NBA Detroit Pistons +3.5 · +23.8% edge
❌ LOST
$10.85
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Final: Detroit Pistons 103 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 112. Model win probability: 73.4%. Actual margin +9 (needed +3.5).
✦ Cleveland Cavaliers injury impact (-0.6%)
✦ Detroit Pistons injuries benefit Cleveland Cavaliers (+3.0%)
PARLAY Detroit Pistons (ML) + Los Angeles Angels (ML) · +19.1% edge
❌ LOST
$2.56
Detroit Pistons (ML) + Los Angeles Angels (ML)
❌ Detroit Pistons (Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers) · ❌ Los Angeles Angels (Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians)
PARLAY Detroit Pistons +3.5 + Over 213.5 · +21.7% edge
❌ LOST
$3.35
Detroit Pistons +3.5 + Over 213.5
❌ Detroit Pistons +3.5 (Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers) · ✅ Over 213.5 (Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers)
🏀 NBA 1 pick · 6 props
Singles
▾
San Antonio Spurs -9.5 ↓
NBA Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
HIGH
Mkt 50.4% → Model 59.4% +9.0% edge ▾
Market
50.4%
Model
59.4%
Edge
+9.0%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: San Antonio Spurs (+2%)
Rating edge: San Antonio Spurs (blended NetRtg diff +11.4)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
San Antonio Spurs injury impact (-2.7%)
Minnesota Timberwolves injuries benefit San Antonio Spurs (+2.2%)
Model projected score: San Antonio Spurs 106 — Minnesota Timberwolves 104
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: OffRtg 119.8 | DefRtg 111.5 | NetRtg 8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves: OffRtg 118.0 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 3.4
San Antonio Spurs last 14 days: NetRtg 11.4 | Win% 60%
Minnesota Timberwolves last 14 days: NetRtg -5.2 | Win% 60%
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — De'Aaron Fox (G): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — David Jones Garcia (F): OUT
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Donte DiVincenzo (G): OUT
Props
▾
Luke Kornet
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 49.5% · Model 5.7 · +35.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
49.5%
Model Proj
5.7
Edge
+35.5%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 49.5%. Model projects 5.7.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 49.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.7 → edge +35.5%
Avg game pace: 118.9 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Luke Kornet: 6.5 PPG / 6.1 RPG / 1.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 50.0% · Model 5.0 · +26.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
50.0%
Model Proj
5.0
Edge
+26.8%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 50.0%. Model projects 5.0.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 50.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.0 → edge +26.8%
Avg game pace: 118.9 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Julius Randle
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Assists Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 54.5% · Model 5.1 · +23.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
54.5%
Model Proj
5.1
Edge
+23.2%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 54.5%. Model projects 5.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 54.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.1 → edge +23.2%
San Antonio Spurs scores 119.8 PPG (above avg → more assist opportunities)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Julius Randle: 21.1 PPG / 6.7 RPG / 5.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Julius Randle
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
HIGH
Over 16.5 51.2% · Model 19.7 · +18.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 16.5
Book Odds
51.2%
Model Proj
19.7
Edge
+18.1%
Draftkings: Over 16.5 at 51.2%. Model projects 19.7.
Key Signals
Market: Over 16.5 at 51.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 19.7 → edge +18.1%
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: starter adjustment applied (-4%)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Julius Randle: 21.1 PPG / 6.7 RPG / 5.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Anthony Edwards
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
HIGH
Over 25.5 55.2% · Model 29.4 · +11.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 25.5
Book Odds
55.2%
Model Proj
29.4
Edge
+11.6%
Draftkings: Over 25.5 at 55.2%. Model projects 29.4.
Key Signals
Market: Over 25.5 at 55.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 29.4 → edge +11.6%
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Anthony Edwards: 28.8 PPG / 0.0 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Blocks Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 58.3% · Model 4.5 · +10.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
58.3%
Model Proj
4.5
Edge
+10.7%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 58.3%. Model projects 4.5.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 58.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.5 → edge +10.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves scores 118.0 PPG (above avg → more block opportunities)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Victor Wembanyama: 0.0 PPG / 10.5 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 4.38 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Houston Astros +1.5 ↓
MLB Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
HIGH
Mkt 51.4% → Model 73.6% +22.1% edge ▾
Market
51.4%
Model
73.6%
Edge
+22.1%
Key Signals
Tatsuya Imai FIP 4.05 / xFIP 4.69 | K/9: 14.3
Bryan Woo FIP 3.75 / xFIP 4.00 | K/9: 7.3
Seattle Mariners injury impact (-1.4%)
🌡️ Cool (56°F) at Daikin — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Seattle Mariners schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Houston Astros 4.5 — Seattle Mariners 4.1
Research & Stats
🔵 Tatsuya Imai: ERA 7.27 | FIP 4.05 / xFIP 4.69 | K/9 14.3 | BB/9 12.1 | IP 8
🔴 Bryan Woo: ERA 4.02 | FIP 3.75 / xFIP 4.00 | K/9 7.3 | BB/9 1.5 | IP 47
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.758 | AVG 0.258 | R/G 4.69
Seattle Mariners offense: OPS 0.693 | AVG 0.229 | R/G 4.05
Bullpen ERA — Houston Astros: 4.20 | Seattle Mariners: 4.20
Venue: Daikin Park — neutral park
⚕ Houston Astros — Walker Janek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Lucas Spence (OF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Seattle Mariners — Teddy McGraw (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Daikin): 56°F | Wind 2 mph N (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Houston Astros 4.45 | Seattle Mariners 4.11
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↓
MLB Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
HIGH
Mkt 44.5% → Model 61.2% +16.7% edge ▾
Market
44.5%
Model
61.2%
Edge
+16.7%
Key Signals
Paul Skenes FIP 2.75 / xFIP 2.78 | K/9: 9.9
Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.12 / xFIP 4.06 | K/9: 6.0
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Paul Skenes: ERA 2.36 vs xFIP 2.78 over 42 IP (severity 0.20) — Pittsburgh Pirates ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.96 (pitcher-friendly: PNC Park)
Pittsburgh Pirates injury impact (-3.8%)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
🌡️ Cold (46°F) at Pittsburgh — ball doesn't carry, Under lean (−0.5 runs)
⚠ Pittsburgh Pirates schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.9 — Colorado Rockies 3.2
Research & Stats
🔵 Paul Skenes: ERA 2.36 | FIP 2.75 / xFIP 2.78 | K/9 9.9 | BB/9 1.5 | IP 42
🔴 Michael Lorenzen: ERA 6.92 | FIP 5.12 / xFIP 4.06 | K/9 6.0 | BB/9 2.8 | IP 39
Pittsburgh Pirates offense: OPS 0.727 | AVG 0.249 | R/G 5.02
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.719 | AVG 0.250 | R/G 4.27
Bullpen ERA — Pittsburgh Pirates: 4.20 | Colorado Rockies: 4.20
Venue: PNC Park — park factor 0.96 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Anthony Solometo (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Oddanier Mosqueda (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Mike Clevinger (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Dominic Fletcher (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Sean Sullivan (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Pittsburgh): 46°F | Wind 2 mph SE (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.93 | Colorado Rockies 3.16
Detroit Tigers ↓
MLB  ML  ·  Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
HIGH
Mkt 42.4% → Model 58.3% +15.9% edge ▾
Market
42.4%
Model
58.3%
Edge
+15.9%
Key Signals
Freddy Peralta FIP 3.66 / xFIP 3.81 | K/9: 9.0
Jack Flaherty FIP 4.94 / xFIP 4.36 | K/9: 11.1
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Freddy Peralta: ERA 3.12 vs xFIP 3.81 over 43 IP (severity 0.32) — New York Mets ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: Citi Field)
New York Mets injury impact (-4.7%)
🌡️ Cool (60°F) at New York — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ New York Mets schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Detroit Tigers schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
Model projected score: New York Mets 3.6 — Detroit Tigers 3.9
Research & Stats
🔵 Freddy Peralta: ERA 3.12 | FIP 3.66 / xFIP 3.81 | K/9 9.0 | BB/9 3.8 | IP 43
🔴 Jack Flaherty: ERA 5.56 | FIP 4.94 / xFIP 4.36 | K/9 11.1 | BB/9 6.9 | IP 34
New York Mets offense: OPS 0.628 | AVG 0.222 | R/G 3.48
Detroit Tigers offense: OPS 0.714 | AVG 0.242 | R/G 4.27
Bullpen ERA — New York Mets: 4.20 | Detroit Tigers: 4.20
Venue: Citi Field — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ New York Mets — Mike Tauchman (RF): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Joe Jacques (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Grae Kessinger (3B): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Kevin Herget (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Nick Burdi (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Jose Rojas (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Robert Stock (RP): OUT
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Dugan Darnell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (New York): 60°F | Wind 7 mph N (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: New York Mets 3.57 | Detroit Tigers 3.87
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 ↓
MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
HIGH
Mkt 61.5% → Model 69.3% +7.8% edge ▾
Market
61.5%
Model
69.3%
Edge
+7.8%
Key Signals
Patrick Corbin FIP 4.0 / xFIP 3.96 | K/9: 6.3
Shane McClanahan FIP 2.82 / xFIP 3.77 | K/9: 8.9
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Patrick Corbin: ERA 3.60 vs xFIP 3.96 over 30 IP (severity 0.23) — Toronto Blue Jays ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Shane McClanahan: ERA 2.60 vs xFIP 3.77 over 34 IP (severity 0.67) — Tampa Bay Rays ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly: Rogers Centre)
Toronto Blue Jays injury impact (-1.5%)
Tampa Bay Rays injury impact (-2.9%)
⚠ Toronto Blue Jays schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Tampa Bay Rays schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.1 — Tampa Bay Rays 4.2
Research & Stats
🔵 Patrick Corbin: ERA 3.6 | FIP 4.0 / xFIP 3.96 | K/9 6.3 | BB/9 2.7 | IP 30
🔴 Shane McClanahan: ERA 2.6 | FIP 2.82 / xFIP 3.77 | K/9 8.9 | BB/9 3.7 | IP 34
Toronto Blue Jays offense: OPS 0.691 | AVG 0.249 | R/G 4.12
Tampa Bay Rays offense: OPS 0.704 | AVG 0.256 | R/G 4.47
Bullpen ERA — Toronto Blue Jays: 4.20 | Tampa Bay Rays: 4.20
Venue: Rogers Centre — park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Geovanny Jesus Planchart (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Chay Yeager (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — CJ Stubbs (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Javen Coleman (P): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Tampa Bay Rays — Chandler Simpson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Tampa Bay Rays — Austin Vernon (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Tampa Bay Rays — Logan Driscoll (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Tampa Bay Rays — Keyshawn Askew (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Tampa Bay Rays — Tre' Morgan (1B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Tampa Bay Rays — Alfredo Zarraga (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Tampa Bay Rays — John Rooney (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Tampa Bay Rays — TJ Nichols (P): DAY-TO-DAY
Model expected runs: Toronto Blue Jays 4.13 | Tampa Bay Rays 4.22
Chicago White Sox +1.5
MLB Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
MEDIUM
Mkt 58.4% → Model 68.0% +9.7% edge ▾
Market
58.4%
Model
68.0%
Edge
+9.7%
Key Signals
Erick Fedde FIP 5.7 / xFIP 4.57 | K/9: 5.7
Stephen Kolek FIP 4.37 / xFIP 3.72 | K/9: 4.5
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Erick Fedde: ERA 3.79 vs xFIP 4.57 over 38 IP (severity 0.41) — Chicago White Sox ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.95 (pitcher-friendly: Rate Field)
Chicago White Sox injury impact (-1.8%)
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-2.2%)
🌬️ Cross wind 12 mph (S) at Chicago — minimal scoring impact
🌡️ Cool (60°F) at Chicago — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
🌧️ 75% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
⚠ Chicago White Sox schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago White Sox 4.0 — Kansas City Royals 4.1
Research & Stats
🔵 Erick Fedde: ERA 3.79 | FIP 5.7 / xFIP 4.57 | K/9 5.7 | BB/9 3.1 | IP 38
🔴 Stephen Kolek: ERA 4.5 | FIP 4.37 / xFIP 3.72 | K/9 4.5 | BB/9 0.0 | IP 6
Chicago White Sox offense: OPS 0.713 | AVG 0.231 | R/G 4.28
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.710 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.12
Bullpen ERA — Chicago White Sox: 4.20 | Kansas City Royals: 4.20
Venue: Rate Field — park factor 0.95 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Andrew Benintendi (DH): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Mason Adams (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Tim Elko (1B): OUT
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 60°F | Wind 12 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 75%
Model expected runs: Chicago White Sox 3.98 | Kansas City Royals 4.10
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 53.9% · Model 2.71 · +33.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
53.9%
Model Proj
2.71
Edge
+33.7%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 53.9%. Model: 2.71.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 53.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.71 → edge +33.7%
vs MacKenzie Gore (FIP 4.00 / xFIP 3.74 | WHIP 1.40) | Park 1.05
Game total: model 8.2 vs market 8.0 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.02x)
Research & Stats
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.331 | OBP 0.356 | H/G 1.30 | TB/G 2.18 | HR/G 0.182 | HRR/G 2.67 | K% 10.9% (137 PA)
Facing MacKenzie Gore: FIP 4.00 / xFIP 3.74 | WHIP 1.40 | K/9 10.8
Park factor 1.05 at Globe Life Field
Jonathan Aranda
MLB  Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 50.0% · Model 2.43 · +32.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
50.0%
Model Proj
2.43
Edge
+32.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 50.0%. Model: 2.43.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 50.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.43 → edge +32.9%
vs Patrick Corbin (FIP 4.00 / xFIP 3.96 | WHIP 1.27) | Park 1.05
Game total: model 8.3 vs market 8.0 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.04x)
Research & Stats
Jonathan Aranda: AVG 0.277 | OBP 0.376 | H/G 0.97 | TB/G 1.70 | HR/G 0.200 | HRR/G 2.30 | K% 23.5% (170 PA)
Facing Patrick Corbin: FIP 4.00 / xFIP 3.96 | WHIP 1.27 | K/9 6.3
Park factor 1.05 at Rogers Centre
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 44.4% · Model 2.22 · +32.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
44.4%
Model Proj
2.22
Edge
+32.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 44.4%. Model: 2.22.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 44.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.22 → edge +32.1%
vs MacKenzie Gore (FIP 4.00 / xFIP 3.74 | WHIP 1.40) | Park 1.05
Game total: model 8.2 vs market 8.0 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.02x)
Research & Stats
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.331 | OBP 0.356 | H/G 1.30 | TB/G 2.18 | HR/G 0.182 | HRR/G 2.67 | K% 10.9% (137 PA)
Facing MacKenzie Gore: FIP 4.00 / xFIP 3.74 | WHIP 1.40 | K/9 10.8
Park factor 1.05 at Globe Life Field
Dansby Swanson
MLB  Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 46.5% · Model 2.19 · +31.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
46.5%
Model Proj
2.19
Edge
+31.4%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 46.5%. Model: 2.19.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 46.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.19 → edge +31.4%
vs Grant Holmes (FIP 5.11 / xFIP 4.45 | WHIP 1.32) | Park 1.03
Game total: model 9.0 vs market 8.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.06x)
Research & Stats
Dansby Swanson: AVG 0.201 | OBP 0.313 | H/G 0.68 | TB/G 1.25 | HR/G 0.150 | HRR/G 1.95 | K% 20.0% (160 PA)
Facing Grant Holmes: FIP 5.11 / xFIP 4.45 | WHIP 1.32 | K/9 7.0
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
Matt Olson
MLB  Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 51.5% · Model 2.47 · +31.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
51.5%
Model Proj
2.47
Edge
+31.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 51.5%. Model: 2.47.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 51.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.47 → edge +31.1%
vs Colin Rea (FIP 3.67 / xFIP 3.33 | WHIP 1.37) | Park 1.03
Game total: model 9.0 vs market 8.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.06x)
Research & Stats
Matt Olson: AVG 0.296 | OBP 0.377 | H/G 1.15 | TB/G 2.54 | HR/G 0.342 | HRR/G 2.90 | K% 24.0% (183 PA)
Facing Colin Rea: FIP 3.67 / xFIP 3.33 | WHIP 1.37 | K/9 8.3
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
Kyle Schwarber
MLB  Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 48.3% · Model 2.35 · +31.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
48.3%
Model Proj
2.35
Edge
+31.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 48.3%. Model: 2.35.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 48.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.35 → edge +31.0%
vs TBD (FIP 4.20 | WHIP 1.30) | Park 1.08
Research & Stats
Kyle Schwarber: AVG 0.227 | OBP 0.353 | H/G 0.85 | TB/G 2.24 | HR/G 0.390 | HRR/G 2.19 | K% 32.1% (184 PA)
Facing TBD: FIP 4.20 | WHIP 1.30 | K/9 8.0
Park factor 1.08 at Fenway Park
🏒 NHL no qualifying picks
😕 No picks found with edge > 3% today — the model scanned all NHL games and found no suitable edges.
Singles
▾
🏏 IPL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Gujarat Titans
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Sunrisers Hyderabad @ Gujarat Titans
🔴 Match In Progress
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 46.5% → Model 62.4% +16.0% edge ▾
Market
46.5%
Model
62.4%
Edge
+16.0%
Key Signals
Home venue advantage: Gujarat Titans (+2.5%)
Short rest: Gujarat Titans (1d since last match, -1.5%)
Form edge: Gujarat Titans (blended win-rate gap 33%)
Hot/cold streak: Gujarat Titans hot (100% last 7d) vs Sunrisers Hyderabad cold (50%)
Research & Stats
Rest days — Gujarat Titans: 1 | Sunrisers Hyderabad: 43
Gujarat Titans: 7W-4L (11 matches) | Win% 64% | Recent Win% 100% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin -2
Sunrisers Hyderabad: 7W-4L (11 matches) | Win% 64% | Recent Win% 50% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin +19
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Kolkata Knight Riders @ Royal Challengers Bengaluru
📅 loading…
MEDIUM
Mkt 54.9% → Model 67.6% +12.7% edge ▾
Market
54.9%
Model
67.6%
Edge
+12.7%
Key Signals
Home venue advantage: Royal Challengers Bengaluru (+2.5%)
Form edge: Royal Challengers Bengaluru (blended win-rate gap 32%)
Research & Stats
Rest days — Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 2 | Kolkata Knight Riders: 44
Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 7W-3L (10 matches) | Win% 70% | Recent Win% 100% (last 1 games) | Avg run margin +6
Kolkata Knight Riders: 3W-5L (8 matches) | Win% 38% | Recent Win% 100% (last 1 games) | Avg run margin -11
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Today's Card top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Houston Astros +1.5 ↑
MLB
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
+22.1%
—
 20
10.7%
$10.69
+$9.31
Robinhood Action — Houston Astros +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢51.4
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.69
Profit if win+$9.31
Loss if lose-$10.69
Expected value +$4.03
2
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↑
MLB
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
+16.7%
—
 14
6.5%
$6.51
+$7.49
Robinhood Action — Colorado Rockies +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢44.5
Buy contracts14
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.51
Profit if win+$7.49
Loss if lose-$6.51
Expected value +$2.06
3
Detroit Tigers (ML) ↑
MLB
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
+15.9%
—
 14
6.2%
$6.22
+$7.78
Robinhood Action — Detroit Tigers (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢42.4
Buy contracts14
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.22
Profit if win+$7.78
Loss if lose-$6.22
Expected value +$1.95
4
San Antonio Spurs -9.5 ↑
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
+9.0%
—
 7
3.7%
$3.67
+$3.33
Robinhood Action — San Antonio Spurs -9.5
Contract price (est.)¢50.4
Buy contracts7
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.67
Profit if win+$3.33
Loss if lose-$3.67
Expected value +$0.49
5
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 ↑
MLB
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
+7.8%
—
 6
3.8%
$3.81
+$2.19
Robinhood Action — Toronto Blue Jays +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢61.5
Buy contracts6
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.81
Profit if win+$2.19
Loss if lose-$3.81
Expected value +$0.35
P1
San Antonio Spurs (ML) + Detroit Tigers (ML)
Parlay
+17.1%
—
 8
2.8%
$2.75
+$5.25
Robinhood Action — San Antonio Spurs (ML) + Detroit Tigers (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢32.4
Buy contracts8
Total cost (incl. commission)$2.75
Profit if win+$5.25
P2
Colorado Rockies (ML) + Houston Astros (ML)
Parlay
+12.6%
—
 12
1.5%
$1.47
+$10.53
Robinhood Action — Colorado Rockies (ML) + Houston Astros (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢10.3
Buy contracts12
Total cost (incl. commission)$1.47
Profit if win+$10.53
Deployed $35.12 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $64.88
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
182
Model Hit Rate
44.5%
Avg Error
-2.0
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 43 37.2% 21.0 17.4 -3.6
Rebounds 31 45.2% 9.3 7.9 -1.4
Assists 12 33.3% 8.0 6.3 -1.7
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 26 69.2% 1.1 1.2 +0.2
HRR 34 41.2% 3.9 1.2 -2.7
Total Bases 8 25.0% 4.3 1.5 -2.8
Steals 3 33.3% 2.7 1.3 -1.3
Blocks 4 50.0% 2.8 1.2 -1.5
HIGH confidence
44.4%
59H / 74M (133 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
NBA
39.8%
37H / 56M (93 settled)
Avg err: -2.5
MLB
49.4%
44H / 45M (89 settled)
Avg err: -1.5
▶ Hit Rate Trend (182 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-04 05-11
Model Performance
Record
62W–51L
Win Rate
54.9%
Total PnL
$+143.82
ROI
15.3%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
60W–50L (54.5%)
$+151.41
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
🏀 NBA
21W–16L (56.8%)
$+51.82
⚾ MLB
28W–17L (62.2%)
$+31.77
PARLAYS
13W–18L (41.9%)
$+60.23
Watchlist Tracking  — no budget allocated, W-L only
🏒 NHL
1W–3L (25.0%)
4 picks tracked
🏏 IPL
0W–1L (0.0%)
1 pick tracked
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (114 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+143.82 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-03 05-11
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-03 05-11
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 22 60.4% 61.9% +1.5%
15%+ 89 69.2% 51.7% -17.5%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.