Daily Betting Report

Wednesday, May 06, 2026 · Generated May 06, 2026 at 04:11 PM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 4 games  |  NHL: 1 game  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 1,578 used · 18,422 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Tuesday, May 05 4W–3L +$18.53
MLB Houston Astros +1.5 · +24.3% edge
✅ WON
+$11.63
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 1 @ Houston Astros 2. Model projected: Houston Astros 4.3, Los Angeles Dodgers 4.2. Covered +1.5 — actual margin +1.0.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.60 vs xFIP 3.05 over 30 IP (severity 0.79) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Peter Lambert FIP 2.07 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9: 11.3
NBA Under 216.5 · +20.6% edge
✅ WON
+$8.23
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Final: Cleveland Cavaliers 101 @ Detroit Pistons 111. Actual total 212 vs line 216.5 (under by 4.5). Model projected 208.6.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
NBA Under 213.5 · +18.4% edge
✅ WON
+$7.37
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Final: Los Angeles Lakers 90 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 108. Actual total 198 vs line 213.5 (under by 15.5). Model projected 206.6.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Under 9.5 · +15.8% edge
❌ LOST
$7.08
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals
Final: Minnesota Twins 11 @ Washington Nationals 3. Model projected: Washington Nationals 3.9, Minnesota Twins 3.4. Actual total 14 vs line 9.5 (over by 4.5). Model projected 7.3.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Taj Bradley: ERA 2.85 vs xFIP 3.80 over 41 IP (severity 0.46) — Minnesota Twins ML may be overpriced by market
✦ 🌬️ Wind 13 mph blowing IN (SW) at Washington — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
NBA Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 · +14.2% edge
❌ LOST
$6.23
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Final: Los Angeles Lakers 90 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 108. Model win probability: 64.1%. Actual margin +18 (needed +15.5).
✦ Oklahoma City Thunder injury impact (-4.0%)
✦ Rest edge: Oklahoma City Thunder has 3 more rest day(s) (+2.4%)
PARLAY Detroit Pistons (Moneyline) + Under 216.5 (Total) · +22.2% edge
✅ WON
+$7.41
Detroit Pistons (Moneyline) + Under 216.5 (Total)
✅ Detroit Pistons (Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons) · ✅ Under 216.5 (Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons)
PARLAY Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 (Spread) + Under 213.5 (Total) · +19.1% edge
❌ LOST
$2.80
Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 (Spread) + Under 213.5 (Total)
❌ Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 (Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder) · ✅ Under 213.5 (Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder)
⚡ Pick Changes Since Morning Run
⚡ Prop updated: Anthony Edwards — Points Over → Ildemaro Vargas — HRR Over. Reason: Better edge: 46.5% vs 28.3%
⚡ Prop updated: Keldon Johnson — Rebounds Over → Nolan Arenado — HRR Over. Reason: Better edge: 44.6% vs 21.1%
🏀 NBA 4 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Under 214.5 ↓
NBA Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 72.1% +19.6% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
72.1%
Edge
+19.6%
Key Signals
Model projected score: New York Knicks 105 — Philadelphia 76ers 102
Model expected total: 206.9 vs market line 214.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
Under 217.5 ↓
NBA Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
HIGH
Mkt 52.1% → Model 73.4% +21.3% edge ▾
Market
52.1%
Model
73.4%
Edge
+21.3%
Key Signals
Model projected score: San Antonio Spurs 106 — Minnesota Timberwolves 104
Model expected total: 209.4 vs market line 217.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs OffRtg: 119.8 vs Minnesota Timberwolves DefRtg: 114.6
Minnesota Timberwolves OffRtg: 118.0 vs San Antonio Spurs DefRtg: 111.5
New York Knicks -10.5
NBA Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
HIGH
Mkt 49.9% → Model 65.8% +15.9% edge ▾
Market
49.9%
Model
65.8%
Edge
+15.9%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: New York Knicks (+2%)
Rating edge: New York Knicks (blended NetRtg diff +21.4)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
New York Knicks injury impact (-1.8%)
Philadelphia 76ers injuries benefit New York Knicks (+1.8%)
Model projected score: New York Knicks 105 — Philadelphia 76ers 102
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: OffRtg 116.5 | DefRtg 110.1 | NetRtg 6.3
Philadelphia 76ers: OffRtg 115.9 | DefRtg 116.1 | NetRtg -0.2
New York Knicks last 14 days: NetRtg 26.8 | Win% 80%
Philadelphia 76ers last 14 days: NetRtg -6.8 | Win% 50%
Rest days — New York Knicks: 1 | Philadelphia 76ers: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ New York Knicks — Mitchell Robinson (C): OUT
⚕ Philadelphia 76ers — Joel Embiid (C): OUT
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5
NBA Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
HIGH
Mkt 50.4% → Model 63.9% +13.5% edge ▾
Market
50.4%
Model
63.9%
Edge
+13.5%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: San Antonio Spurs (+2%)
Rating edge: San Antonio Spurs (blended NetRtg diff +5.3)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
San Antonio Spurs injury impact (-2.6%)
Minnesota Timberwolves injuries benefit San Antonio Spurs (+3.0%)
Model projected score: San Antonio Spurs 106 — Minnesota Timberwolves 104
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: OffRtg 119.8 | DefRtg 111.5 | NetRtg 8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves: OffRtg 118.0 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 3.4
San Antonio Spurs last 14 days: NetRtg 12.5 | Win% 75%
Minnesota Timberwolves last 14 days: NetRtg 7.0 | Win% 80%
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — Carter Bryant (F): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — David Jones Garcia (F): OUT
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Anthony Edwards (G): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Donte DiVincenzo (G): OUT
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Luke Kornet
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 48.8% · Model 5.5 · +33.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
48.8%
Model Proj
5.5
Edge
+33.8%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 48.8%. Model projects 5.5.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 48.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.5 → edge +33.8%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Luke Kornet: 6.5 PPG / 6.1 RPG / 1.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Quentin Grimes
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Points Over
HIGH
Over 8.5 51.2% · Model 11.6 · +28.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 8.5
Book Odds
51.2%
Model Proj
11.6
Edge
+28.8%
Draftkings: Over 8.5 at 51.2%. Model projects 11.6.
Key Signals
Market: Over 8.5 at 51.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.6 → edge +28.8%
New York Knicks allows 110.1 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
Quentin Grimes: 13.4 PPG / 3.6 RPG / 3.3 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Anthony Edwards
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
HIGH
Over 20.5 54.3% · Model 30.1 · +28.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 20.5
Book Odds
54.3%
Model Proj
30.1
Edge
+28.7%
Draftkings: Over 20.5 at 54.3%. Model projects 30.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 20.5 at 54.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 30.1 → edge +28.7%
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Anthony Edwards: 28.8 PPG / 0.0 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Blocks Over
HIGH
Over 4.5 46.1% · Model 5.6 · +22.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 4.5
Book Odds
46.1%
Model Proj
5.6
Edge
+22.1%
Draftkings: Over 4.5 at 46.1%. Model projects 5.6.
Key Signals
Market: Over 4.5 at 46.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.6 → edge +22.2%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Victor Wembanyama: 0.0 PPG / 10.0 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 5.60 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Points Over
HIGH
Over 9.5 51.5% · Model 11.9 · +21.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 9.5
Book Odds
51.5%
Model Proj
11.9
Edge
+21.8%
Draftkings: Over 9.5 at 51.5%. Model projects 11.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 9.5 at 51.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.9 → edge +21.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves allows 114.6 PPG (above avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 55.2% · Model 4.8 · +21.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
55.2%
Model Proj
4.8
Edge
+21.1%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 55.2%. Model projects 4.8.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 55.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.8 → edge +21.1%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Houston Astros +1.5 ↓
MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 45.6% → Model 66.4% +20.8% edge ▾
Market
45.6%
Model
66.4%
Edge
+20.8%
Key Signals
Lance McCullers Jr. FIP 4.39 / xFIP 3.85 | K/9: 9.5
Tyler Glasnow FIP 3.12 / xFIP 2.88 | K/9: 11.1
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Tyler Glasnow: ERA 2.56 vs xFIP 2.88 over 38 IP (severity 0.17) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 8 games in 7 days
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Houston Astros 4.3 — Los Angeles Dodgers 4.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Lance McCullers Jr.: ERA 6.32 | FIP 4.39 / xFIP 3.85 | K/9 9.5 | BB/9 4.9 | IP 31
🔴 Tyler Glasnow: ERA 2.56 | FIP 3.12 / xFIP 2.88 | K/9 11.1 | BB/9 3.1 | IP 38
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.775 | AVG 0.264 | R/G 4.95
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.788 | AVG 0.271 | R/G 5.11
Bullpen ERA — Houston Astros: 5.65 | Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.19
Venue: Daikin Park — neutral park
⚕ Houston Astros — Lucas Spence (OF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Walker Janek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Edwin Jimenez (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Daikin): 63°F | Wind 9 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Houston Astros 4.30 | Los Angeles Dodgers 4.51
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↓
MLB New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
HIGH
Mkt 52.4% → Model 80.7% +28.3% edge ▾
Market
52.4%
Model
80.7%
Edge
+28.3%
Key Signals
Michael Lorenzen FIP 4.88 / xFIP 3.88 | K/9: 6.4
Freddy Peralta FIP 3.62 / xFIP 3.55 | K/9: 9.9
Park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly: Coors Field)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
New York Mets injury impact (-5.0%)
🌡️ Cold (35°F) at Denver — ball doesn't carry, Under lean (−0.5 runs)
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Mets schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Colorado Rockies 5.1 — New York Mets 4.3
Research & Stats
🔵 Michael Lorenzen: ERA 6.09 | FIP 4.88 / xFIP 3.88 | K/9 6.4 | BB/9 2.4 | IP 34
🔴 Freddy Peralta: ERA 3.52 | FIP 3.62 / xFIP 3.55 | K/9 9.9 | BB/9 3.8 | IP 38
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.719 | AVG 0.250 | R/G 4.22
New York Mets offense: OPS 0.629 | AVG 0.224 | R/G 3.49
Bullpen ERA — Colorado Rockies: 4.59 | New York Mets: 3.91
Venue: Coors Field — park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Jose Rojas (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Nick Burdi (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Joe Jacques (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Kevin Herget (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Mike Tauchman (RF): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Nate Lavender (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Robert Stock (RP): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Grae Kessinger (3B): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: James Hoye (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Denver): 35°F | Wind 2 mph E (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Colorado Rockies 5.13 | New York Mets 4.28
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
MEDIUM
Mkt 58.7% → Model 69.6% +10.9% edge ▾
Market
58.7%
Model
69.6%
Edge
+10.9%
Key Signals
Michael Soroka FIP 3.0 / xFIP 2.87 | K/9: 10.7
Paul Skenes FIP 3.05 / xFIP 2.63 | K/9: 10.3
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Chase Field)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-3.9%)
Pittsburgh Pirates injury impact (-3.9%)
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Pittsburgh Pirates schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.8 — Pittsburgh Pirates 3.7
Research & Stats
🔵 Michael Soroka: ERA 4.7 | FIP 3.0 / xFIP 2.87 | K/9 10.7 | BB/9 2.7 | IP 30
🔴 Paul Skenes: ERA 2.91 | FIP 3.05 / xFIP 2.63 | K/9 10.3 | BB/9 1.9 | IP 34
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.722 | AVG 0.248 | R/G 4.68
Pittsburgh Pirates offense: OPS 0.722 | AVG 0.248 | R/G 5.00
Bullpen ERA — Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.92 | Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.85
Venue: Chase Field — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Sean Sullivan (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Dominic Fletcher (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Anthony Solometo (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Mike Clevinger (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Oddanier Mosqueda (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: John Tumpane (near-neutral tendencies)
Model expected runs: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.77 | Pittsburgh Pirates 3.66
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks injury credibility cap applied — model probability anchored near market (51%)
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
MLB Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
MEDIUM
Mkt 62.7% → Model 69.6% +6.9% edge ▾
Market
62.7%
Model
69.6%
Edge
+6.9%
Key Signals
Cole Ragans FIP 6.66 / xFIP 3.78 | K/9: 11.5
Joey Cantillo FIP 4.4 / xFIP 3.72 | K/9: 9.5
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-3.6%)
🌡️ Cool (61°F) at Kansas City — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Cleveland Guardians schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Kansas City Royals 4.0 — Cleveland Guardians 3.9
Research & Stats
🔵 Cole Ragans: ERA 5.29 | FIP 6.66 / xFIP 3.78 | K/9 11.5 | BB/9 5.9 | IP 32
🔴 Joey Cantillo: ERA 3.67 | FIP 4.4 / xFIP 3.72 | K/9 9.5 | BB/9 4.2 | IP 34
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.710 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.19
Cleveland Guardians offense: OPS 0.693 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 4.08
Bullpen ERA — Kansas City Royals: 4.28 | Cleveland Guardians: 4.06
Venue: Kauffman Stadium — neutral park
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Noah Cameron (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cleveland Guardians — Carlos Hernandez (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Edwin Moscoso (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Kansas City): 61°F | Wind 9 mph NNW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Kansas City Royals 4.04 | Cleveland Guardians 3.88
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Chicago Cubs
MLB  ML  ·  Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
MEDIUM
Mkt 60.5% → Model 66.5% +6.0% edge ▾
Market
60.5%
Model
66.5%
Edge
+6.0%
Key Signals
Colin Rea FIP 3.39 / xFIP 3.31 | K/9: 8.4
Brady Singer FIP 5.63 / xFIP 4.46 | K/9: 5.6
Park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly: Wrigley Field)
Chicago Cubs injury impact (-6.0%)
Cincinnati Reds injury impact (-5.8%)
🌡️ Cool (58°F) at Chicago — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Chicago Cubs schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Cincinnati Reds schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago Cubs 5.1 — Cincinnati Reds 3.7
Research & Stats
🔵 Colin Rea: ERA 4.41 | FIP 3.39 / xFIP 3.31 | K/9 8.4 | BB/9 2.5 | IP 32
🔴 Brady Singer: ERA 5.57 | FIP 5.63 / xFIP 4.46 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 2.5 | IP 32
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.780 | AVG 0.258 | R/G 5.36
Cincinnati Reds offense: OPS 0.687 | AVG 0.218 | R/G 4.08
Bullpen ERA — Chicago Cubs: 3.83 | Cincinnati Reds: 4.45
Venue: Wrigley Field — park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Matthew Boyd (SP): OUT
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jaxon Wiggins (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Brandon Birdsell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jeff Brigham (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Connor Burns (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Josh Staumont (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Alex Young (RP): OUT
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Carson Spiers (SP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Tom Hanahan (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 58°F | Wind 4 mph NNW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Chicago Cubs 5.08 | Cincinnati Reds 3.73
⚠ Chicago Cubs injury credibility cap applied — model probability anchored near market (67%)
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 48.8% · Model 4.17 · +46.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
48.8%
Model Proj
4.17
Edge
+46.5%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 48.8%. Model: 4.17.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 48.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.17 → edge +46.5%
vs Paul Skenes (FIP 3.05) at Chase Field (park factor 1.01)
Research & Stats
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.374 | OBP 0.396 | H/G 1.48 | TB/G 2.56 | HR/G 0.222 | HRR/G 3.00 (113 PA)
Facing Paul Skenes: FIP 3.05
Park factor 1.01 at Chase Field
Nolan Arenado
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 42.7% · Model 2.78 · +44.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
42.7%
Model Proj
2.78
Edge
+44.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 42.7%. Model: 2.78.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 42.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.78 → edge +44.6%
vs Paul Skenes (FIP 3.05) at Chase Field (park factor 1.01)
Research & Stats
Nolan Arenado: AVG 0.273 | OBP 0.325 | H/G 0.94 | TB/G 1.50 | HR/G 0.156 | HRR/G 2.00 (120 PA)
Facing Paul Skenes: FIP 3.05
Park factor 1.01 at Chase Field
Corbin Carroll
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 49.5% · Model 3.04 · +40.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.5%
Model Proj
3.04
Edge
+40.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.5%. Model: 3.04.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.04 → edge +40.9%
vs Paul Skenes (FIP 3.05) at Chase Field (park factor 1.01)
Research & Stats
Corbin Carroll: AVG 0.265 | OBP 0.366 | H/G 0.94 | TB/G 1.78 | HR/G 0.125 | HRR/G 2.19 (134 PA)
Facing Paul Skenes: FIP 3.05
Park factor 1.01 at Chase Field
Elly De La Cruz
MLB  Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 51.7% · Model 3.23 · +39.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
51.7%
Model Proj
3.23
Edge
+39.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 51.7%. Model: 3.23.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 51.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.23 → edge +39.6%
vs Colin Rea (FIP 3.39) at Wrigley Field (park factor 1.03)
Research & Stats
Elly De La Cruz: AVG 0.275 | OBP 0.352 | H/G 1.08 | TB/G 2.08 | HR/G 0.278 | HRR/G 2.53 (159 PA)
Facing Colin Rea: FIP 3.39
Park factor 1.03 at Wrigley Field
Troy Johnston
MLB  Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 49.0% · Model 2.83 · +39.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.0%
Model Proj
2.83
Edge
+39.3%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.0%. Model: 2.83.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.83 → edge +39.3%
vs Freddy Peralta (FIP 3.62) at Coors Field (park factor 1.30)
Research & Stats
Troy Johnston: AVG 0.318 | OBP 0.381 | H/G 1.06 | TB/G 1.50 | HR/G 0.062 | HRR/G 1.88 (119 PA)
Facing Freddy Peralta: FIP 3.62
Park factor 1.30 at Coors Field
Brandon Lowe
MLB  Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 43.5% · Model 2.83 · +39.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.5%
Model Proj
2.83
Edge
+39.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.5%. Model: 2.83.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.83 → edge +39.0%
vs Michael Soroka (FIP 3.00) at Chase Field (park factor 1.01)
Research & Stats
Brandon Lowe: AVG 0.243 | OBP 0.356 | H/G 0.93 | TB/G 2.00 | HR/G 0.267 | HRR/G 2.27 (135 PA)
Facing Michael Soroka: FIP 3.00
Park factor 1.01 at Chase Field
🏒 NHL 1 pick · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Anaheim Ducks +1.5
NHL Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights
MEDIUM
Mkt 62.0% → Model 73.2% +11.2% edge ▾
Market
62.0%
Model
73.2%
Edge
+11.2%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Vegas Golden Knights (+2%)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Anaheim Ducks injuries benefit Vegas Golden Knights (+1.5%)
Research & Stats
Vegas Golden Knights last 14 days: NetRtg 1.20 | Win% 80%
Anaheim Ducks last 14 days: NetRtg 0.67 | Win% 67%
Rest days — Vegas Golden Knights: 2 | Anaheim Ducks: 2
⚕ Anaheim Ducks — Radko Gudas (D): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Budget Allocation top 4 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↑
MLB
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
+28.3%
—
 28
14.8%
$14.76
+$13.24
Robinhood Action — Colorado Rockies +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢50.7
Buy contracts28
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.76
Profit if win+$13.24
Loss if lose-$14.76
Expected value +$7.82
2
Under 217.5 ↑
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
+21.3%
—
 19
10.3%
$10.35
+$8.65
Robinhood Action — Under 217.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts19
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.35
Profit if win+$8.65
Loss if lose-$10.35
Expected value +$3.61
3
Houston Astros +1.5 ↑
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
🔒 Locked
+20.8%
—
 16
7.7%
$7.70
+$8.30
Robinhood Action — Houston Astros +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢46.1
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$7.70
Profit if win+$8.30
Loss if lose-$7.70
Expected value +$2.70
4
Under 214.5 ↑
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
🔒 Locked
+19.6%
—
 17
9.3%
$9.26
+$7.74
Robinhood Action — Under 214.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts17
Total cost (incl. commission)$9.26
Profit if win+$7.74
Loss if lose-$9.26
Expected value +$3.00
P1
New York Knicks (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
Parlay
🔒 Locked
+26.6%
—
 13
4.3%
$4.32
+$8.68
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢31.2
Buy contracts13
Total cost (incl. commission)$4.32
Profit if win+$8.68
P2
New York Knicks (ML) + Under 216.5
Parlay
🔒 Locked
+31.7%
—
 15
5.9%
$5.94
+$9.06
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML) + Under 216.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢37.6
Buy contracts15
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.94
Profit if win+$9.06
Deployed $52.33 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $47.67
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
110
Model Hit Rate
47.3%
Avg Error
-1.7
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 29 31.0% 24.6 20.8 -3.8
Rebounds 22 50.0% 10.9 9.9 -1.1
Assists 9 33.3% 9.1 7.4 -1.6
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 24 75.0% 1.0 1.3 +0.3
HRR 4 25.0% 4.0 0.8 -3.2
Total Bases 1 0.0% 5.2 0.0 -5.2
HIGH confidence
49.2%
30H / 31M (61 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
MLB
25.0%
2H / 6M (8 settled)
Avg err: -2.4
NBA
25.0%
3H / 9M (12 settled)
Avg err: -5.4
▶ Hit Rate Trend (110 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-30 05-05
Model Performance
Record
41W–30L
Win Rate
57.7%
Total PnL
$+128.02
ROI
20.8%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
39W–29L (57.4%)
$+135.61
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
NBA
12W–6L (66.7%)
$+53.04
MLB
21W–13L (61.8%)
$+39.27
PARLAYS
8W–11L (42.1%)
$+35.71
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (72 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+128.02 total
$+137 $0 $-54 04-25 05-01 05-05
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-01 05-05
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 9 57.5% 50.0% -7.5%
15%+ 60 69.1% 56.7% -12.4%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.