Daily Betting Report

Thursday, April 30, 2026 · Generated April 30, 2026 at 08:58 AM PDT
NBA: 3 games  |  MLB: 11 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 90 used · 19,910 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Wednesday, April 29 3W–2L +$26.21
MLB Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 Spread · +31.4% edge
❌ LOST
$12.39
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
Final: Arizona Diamondbacks 6 @ Milwaukee Brewers 2. Model projected: Milwaukee Brewers 4.5, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.8. Correct side but didn't cover +1.5 (actual margin -4.0).
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Eduardo Rodriguez: ERA 2.89 vs xFIP 4.64 over 28 IP (severity 1.14) — Arizona Diamondbacks ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Brandon Sproat FIP 6.1 / xFIP 4.39 | K/9: 8.1
MLB Colorado Rockies Moneyline · +29.3% edge
✅ WON
+$15.19
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
Final: Colorado Rockies 13 @ Cincinnati Reds 2. Model projected: Cincinnati Reds 4.5, Colorado Rockies 5.8. Model's directional call was correct.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Brandon Williamson: ERA 5.40 vs xFIP 5.90 over 25 IP (severity 0.34) — Cincinnati Reds ML may be overpriced by market
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Tomoyuki Sugano: ERA 3.42 vs xFIP 3.78 over 26 IP (severity 0.24) — Colorado Rockies ML may be overpriced by market
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Spread · +29.0% edge
✅ WON
+$15.85
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Final: St. Louis Cardinals 5 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 4. Model projected: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.1, St. Louis Cardinals 4.7. Covered +1.5 — actual margin -1.0.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Bubba Chandler: ERA 4.88 vs xFIP 5.13 over 24 IP (severity 0.17) — Pittsburgh Pirates ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Bubba Chandler FIP 5.62 / xFIP 5.13 | K/9: 7.9
NBA Orlando Magic +10.5 Spread · +25.9% edge
✅ WON
+$10.97
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Final: Orlando Magic 109 @ Detroit Pistons 116. Model win probability: 76.2%. Actual margin +7 (needed +10.5).
✦ Detroit Pistons injury impact (-0.8%)
✦ Orlando Magic injuries benefit Detroit Pistons (+2.6%)
PARLAY Orlando Magic +10.5 (Spread) + Under 211.5 (Total) Parlay · +22.5% edge
❌ LOST
$3.41
Orlando Magic +10.5 (Spread) + Under 211.5 (Total)
✅ Orlando Magic +10.5 (Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons) · ❌ Under 211.5 (Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons)
Singles (top 5 by edge)
New York Knicks -2.5 ↓
NBA  Spread  ·  New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
🕐 4:10 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 50.4% → Model 83.3% +32.8% edge ▾
Market
50.4%
Model
83.3%
Edge
+32.8%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Atlanta Hawks (+2%)
Rating edge: New York Knicks (blended NetRtg diff -13.6)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Atlanta Hawks injury impact (-4.0%)
New York Knicks injuries benefit Atlanta Hawks (+0.8%)
Model projected score: Atlanta Hawks 103 — New York Knicks 105
Research & Stats
Atlanta Hawks: OffRtg 118.5 | DefRtg 116.0 | NetRtg 2.4
New York Knicks: OffRtg 116.5 | DefRtg 110.1 | NetRtg 6.3
Atlanta Hawks last 14 days: NetRtg -10.8 | Win% 40%
New York Knicks last 14 days: NetRtg 10.8 | Win% 60%
Rest days — Atlanta Hawks: 1 | New York Knicks: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Atlanta Hawks — Keshon Gilbert (G): OUT
⚕ Atlanta Hawks — Jock Landale (C): OUT
⚕ New York Knicks — Josh Hart (G): DAY-TO-DAY
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢50.4
Buy contracts30
Total cost (incl. commission)$15.73
Profit if win+$14.27
Loss if lose-$15.73
Expected value +$9.25
Under 224.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
🕐 6:40 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 52.4% → Model 81.6% +29.2% edge ▾
Market
52.4%
Model
81.6%
Edge
+29.2%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 106 — Denver Nuggets 107
Model expected total: 212.8 vs market line 224.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves OffRtg: 118.0 vs Denver Nuggets DefRtg: 116.9
Denver Nuggets OffRtg: 122.1 vs Minnesota Timberwolves DefRtg: 114.6
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.4
Buy contracts27
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.68
Profit if win+$12.32
Loss if lose-$14.68
Expected value +$7.35
Colorado Rockies ↓
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
🕐 9:41 AM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 40.5% → Model 62.9% +22.4% edge ▾
Market
40.5%
Model
62.9%
Edge
+22.4%
Key Signals
Andrew Abbott FIP 5.08 / xFIP 4.71 | K/9: 6.1
Michael Lorenzen FIP 4.33 / xFIP 3.78 | K/9: 6.1
Park factor 1.12 (hitter-friendly: Great American Ball Park)
Cincinnati Reds injury impact (-5.8%)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Bruce Dreckman: low-scoring games (run factor 0.95x avg) — leans Under
👨‍⚖️ Bruce Dreckman: large strike zone (K factor 1.06x avg) — favors pitchers / strikeout props
🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing OUT (NNW) at Cincinnati — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
🌡️ Cool (51°F) at Cincinnati — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Cincinnati Reds schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Cincinnati Reds 4.5 — Colorado Rockies 5.1
Research & Stats
🔵 Andrew Abbott: ERA 6.59 | FIP 5.08 / xFIP 4.71 | K/9 6.1 | BB/9 4.1 | IP 28
🔴 Michael Lorenzen: ERA 5.97 | FIP 4.33 / xFIP 3.78 | K/9 6.1 | BB/9 1.9 | IP 28
Cincinnati Reds offense: OPS 0.694 | AVG 0.220 | R/G 4.23
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.725 | AVG 0.254 | R/G 4.29
Bullpen ERA — Cincinnati Reds: 4.02 | Colorado Rockies: 4.12
Venue: Great American Ball Park — park factor 1.12 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Connor Burns (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Josh Staumont (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Alex Young (RP): OUT
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Carson Spiers (SP): OUT
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Bruce Dreckman — run factor 0.95x | K factor 1.06x | Tight zone, low runs
🌤 Weather (Cincinnati): 51°F | Wind 10 mph NNW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Cincinnati Reds 4.49 | Colorado Rockies 5.09
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢40.5
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.50
Profit if win+$11.50
Loss if lose-$8.50
Expected value +$4.07
Under 212.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
🕐 5:10 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 51.8% → Model 72.3% +20.5% edge ▾
Market
51.8%
Model
72.3%
Edge
+20.5%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 101 — Boston Celtics 104
Model expected total: 204.8 vs market line 212.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs Boston Celtics DefRtg: 107.2
Boston Celtics OffRtg: 114.9 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢51.8
Buy contracts18
Total cost (incl. commission)$9.68
Profit if win+$8.32
Loss if lose-$9.68
Expected value +$3.32
Houston Astros ↓
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
🕐 9:36 AM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 45.3% → Model 63.9% +18.6% edge ▾
Market
45.3%
Model
63.9%
Edge
+18.6%
Key Signals
Brandon Young FIP 3.98 / xFIP 4.24 | K/9: 6.2
Lance McCullers Jr. FIP 4.91 / xFIP 3.93 | K/9: 8.6
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Brandon Young: ERA 2.53 vs xFIP 4.24 over 10 IP (severity 1.49) — Baltimore Orioles ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-3.3%)
🌬️ Wind 11 mph blowing OUT (NW) at Baltimore — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Baltimore Orioles 4.4 — Houston Astros 5.2
Research & Stats
🔵 Brandon Young: ERA 2.53 | FIP 3.98 / xFIP 4.24 | K/9 6.2 | BB/9 2.6 | IP 10
🔴 Lance McCullers Jr.: ERA 6.75 | FIP 4.91 / xFIP 3.93 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 4.7 | IP 25
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.722 | AVG 0.240 | R/G 4.48
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.784 | AVG 0.260 | R/G 5.13
Bullpen ERA — Baltimore Orioles: 4.28 | Houston Astros: 5.96
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Hans Crouse (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Ryan Noda (1B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Baltimore): 62°F | Wind 11 mph NW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Baltimore Orioles 4.38 | Houston Astros 5.18
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢45.3
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$7.56
Profit if win+$8.44
Loss if lose-$7.56
Expected value +$2.66
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 73.7% · Edge: +35.0%
HIGH
New York Knicks (Moneyline)
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks · Model: 87.9% · Edge: +30.7%
Boston Celtics (Moneyline)
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers · Model: 83.8% · Edge: +16.3%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢38.7
Buy contracts17
Total cost$6.91
Profit if win+$10.09
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 55.2% · Edge: +28.8%
HIGH
New York Knicks -2.5 (Spread)
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks · Model: 83.3% · Edge: +32.8%
Under 213.5 (Total)
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks · Model: 66.3% · Edge: +14.0%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.4
Buy contracts16
Total cost$4.54
Profit if win+$11.46
Props Watchlist — model projections only. No sportsbook line available. Search Robinhood manually before betting.
Nikola Jokic
NBA  Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 12.9 · Bet Over ≤ 12 ▾
Projected
12.9
Bet Over ≤
12
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Nikola Jokic rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 12.9 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 12.
Key Signals
Nikola Jokic averages 12.9 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Denver Nuggets: 54W-28L | PPG 122.1 | OPPG 114.6 (opp) | Net +5.2
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | Net +3.4
Denver Nuggets recent (14d): PPG 109.4 | OPPG 112.4 | Win% 40%
Model projected team pts: 114.8 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Denver Nuggets: 2d | Minnesota Timberwolves: 2d
Karl-Anthony Towns
NBA  New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 11.9 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.9
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Karl-Anthony Towns rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.9 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Karl-Anthony Towns averages 11.9 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 116.0 (opp) | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | Net +2.4
New York Knicks recent (14d): PPG 113.4 | OPPG 102.6 | Win% 60%
Model projected team pts: 115.1 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — New York Knicks: 1d | Atlanta Hawks: 1d
Rudy Gobert
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 11.5 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.5
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Rudy Gobert rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Rudy Gobert averages 11.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 116.9 (opp) | Net +3.4
Denver Nuggets: 54W-28L | Net +5.2
Minnesota Timberwolves recent (14d): PPG 112.4 | OPPG 109.4 | Win% 60%
Model projected team pts: 115.4 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Minnesota Timberwolves: 2d | Denver Nuggets: 2d
Nikola Jokic
NBA  Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Assists Over
HIGH
Proj 10.7 · Bet Over ≤ 10 ▾
Projected
10.7
Bet Over ≤
10
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Nikola Jokic assists' on Robinhood. Model line: 10.7 APG season avg. Look for Over at or below 10.
Key Signals
Nikola Jokic averages 10.7 assists/game this season
High-scoring expected game supports assist volume
Research & Stats
Denver Nuggets: 54W-28L | PPG 122.1 | OPPG 114.6 (opp) | Net +5.2
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | Net +3.4
Denver Nuggets recent (14d): PPG 109.4 | OPPG 112.4 | Win% 40%
Model projected team pts: 114.8 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Denver Nuggets: 2d | Minnesota Timberwolves: 2d
Jalen Johnson
NBA  Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 10.3 · Bet Over ≤ 10 ▾
Projected
10.3
Bet Over ≤
10
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Jalen Johnson rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 10.3 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 10.
Key Signals
Jalen Johnson averages 10.3 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | PPG 118.5 | OPPG 110.1 (opp) | Net +2.4
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks recent (14d): PPG 102.6 | OPPG 113.4 | Win% 40%
Model projected team pts: 109.6 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Atlanta Hawks: 1d | New York Knicks: 1d
Jaylen Brown
NBA  Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 30.2 · Bet Over ≤ 30 ▾
Projected
30.2
Bet Over ≤
30
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Jaylen Brown points' on Robinhood. Model line: 30.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 30.
Key Signals
Jaylen Brown season avg: 28.7 PPG
Philadelphia 76ers allows 116.1 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Boston Celtics: 56W-26L | PPG 114.9 | OPPG 116.1 (opp) | Net +7.7
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | Net -0.2
Boston Celtics recent (14d): PPG 110.6 | OPPG 102.2 | Win% 60%
Model projected team pts: 113.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Boston Celtics: 1d | Philadelphia 76ers: 1d
Michael Soroka
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.1 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.1
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Michael Soroka strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.1 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 11.2 (umpire Mike Estabrook 0.96x) → adjusted 10.0 → projects 6.1 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.43 / xFIP 2.57 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 27 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Michael Soroka: ERA 2.60 | FIP 2.43 | xFIP 2.57 | K/9 11.2 | BB/9 2.3 | HR/9 0.66
Season IP: 27 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Opponent K%: 21.1% (league avg 22.8%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Mike Estabrook: tight zone (K factor 0.96x)
Kevin Gausman
MLB  Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.0 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.0
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Kevin Gausman strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.0 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 9.8 → adjusted 9.8 → projects 6.0 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.66 / xFIP 2.69 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 35 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Kevin Gausman: ERA 2.57 | FIP 2.66 | xFIP 2.69 | K/9 9.8 | BB/9 1.5 | HR/9 0.77
Season IP: 35 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Target Field (park factor 0.99)
Opponent K%: 22.8% (league avg 22.8%)
Freddy Peralta
MLB  New York Mets vs Washington Nationals · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 5.9 · Bet Over ≤ 5 ▾
Projected
5.9
Bet Over ≤
5
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Freddy Peralta strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.9 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.1 → adjusted 9.7 → projects 5.9 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.79 / xFIP 3.47 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 32 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Freddy Peralta: ERA 3.90 | FIP 3.79 | xFIP 3.47 | K/9 10.1 | BB/9 3.6 | HR/9 1.12
Season IP: 32 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Citi Field (park factor 0.97)
Opponent K%: 22.0% (league avg 22.8%)
Luis Robert Jr.
MLB  New York Mets vs Washington Nationals · Hits Over (1+)
MEDIUM
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Luis Robert Jr. hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Miles Mikolas (FIP 7.05).
Key Signals
Luis Robert Jr.: .224 AVG / .327 OBP this season (98 PA)
Miles Mikolas FIP 7.05 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~5.7 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Miles Mikolas: ERA 8.49 | FIP 7.05 | xFIP 4.46 | K/9 6.2 | BB/9 3.9 | HR/9 2.73
Season IP: 23 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Citi Field (park factor 0.97)
Opponent K%: 21.5% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 7.05 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~5.7 hits in 5.5 inn
Francisco Lindor
MLB  New York Mets vs Washington Nationals · Hits Over (1+)
MEDIUM
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Francisco Lindor hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Miles Mikolas (FIP 7.05).
Key Signals
Francisco Lindor: .226 AVG / .314 OBP this season (105 PA)
Miles Mikolas FIP 7.05 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~5.7 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Miles Mikolas: ERA 8.49 | FIP 7.05 | xFIP 4.46 | K/9 6.2 | BB/9 3.9 | HR/9 2.73
Season IP: 23 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Citi Field (park factor 0.97)
Opponent K%: 21.5% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 7.05 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~5.7 hits in 5.5 inn
Francisco Alvarez
MLB  New York Mets vs Washington Nationals · Hits Over (1+)
MEDIUM
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Francisco Alvarez hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Miles Mikolas (FIP 7.05).
Key Signals
Francisco Alvarez: .217 AVG / .305 OBP this season (97 PA)
Miles Mikolas FIP 7.05 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~5.7 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Miles Mikolas: ERA 8.49 | FIP 7.05 | xFIP 4.46 | K/9 6.2 | BB/9 3.9 | HR/9 2.73
Season IP: 23 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Citi Field (park factor 0.97)
Opponent K%: 21.5% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 7.05 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~5.7 hits in 5.5 inn
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
New York Knicks -2.5 (Spread) ↑
NBA
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
4:10 PM PDT
+32.8%
—
 30
15.7%
$15.73
+$14.27
2
Under 224.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
6:40 PM PDT
+29.2%
—
 27
14.7%
$14.68
+$12.32
3
Colorado Rockies (Moneyline) ↑
MLB
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
9:41 AM PDT
+22.4%
—
 20
8.5%
$8.50
+$11.50
4
Under 212.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
5:10 PM PDT
+20.5%
—
 18
9.7%
$9.68
+$8.32
5
Houston Astros (Moneyline) ↑
MLB
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
9:36 AM PDT
+18.6%
—
 16
7.6%
$7.56
+$8.44
P1
New York Knicks (Moneyline) + Boston Celtics (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks / Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
+35.0%
—
 17
6.9%
$6.91
+$10.09
P2
New York Knicks -2.5 (Spread) + Under 213.5 (Total) ↑
Parlay
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks / New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
+28.8%
—
 16
4.5%
$4.54
+$11.46
Deployed $67.60 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $32.40
Props Model Accuracy — how often the model's projection exceeded the actual stat
Props Settled
46
Model Hit Rate
41.3%
Avg Error
-1.6
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 12 25.0% 26.8 23.2 -3.6
Rebounds 10 50.0% 11.6 10.3 -1.3
Assists 5 20.0% 9.7 8.2 -1.5
Strikeouts 11 36.4% 6.0 4.6 -1.4
Hits 8 75.0% 1.0 1.5 +0.5
HIGH confidence
54.5%
12H / 10M (22 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
29.2%
7H / 17M (24 settled)
Model Performance
Record
14W–15L
Win Rate
48.3%
Total PnL
$+5.50
ROI
1.9%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
13W–14L (48.1%)
$+20.28
MEDIUM
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-14.78
NBA
5W–3L (62.5%)
$+8.96
MLB
6W–8L (42.9%)
$-32.05
PARLAY
3W–4L (42.9%)
$+28.59
⚠ Only 29 settled bet(s) — need 30+ for statistically meaningful calibration.
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (29 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+5.50 total
$+15 $0 $-54 04-25 04-27 04-29
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-27 04-29
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 2 49.2% 0.0% -49.2%
15%+ 24 73.3% 45.8% -27.5%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.