Daily Betting Report

Wednesday, May 06, 2026 · Generated May 06, 2026 at 10:41 AM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 13 games  |  NHL: 2 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 1,273 used · 18,727 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Tuesday, May 05 4W–3L +$18.53
MLB Houston Astros +1.5 · +24.3% edge
✅ WON
+$11.63
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 1 @ Houston Astros 2. Model projected: Houston Astros 4.3, Los Angeles Dodgers 4.2. Covered +1.5 — actual margin +1.0.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.60 vs xFIP 3.05 over 30 IP (severity 0.79) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Peter Lambert FIP 2.07 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9: 11.3
NBA Under 216.5 · +20.6% edge
✅ WON
+$8.23
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Final: Cleveland Cavaliers 101 @ Detroit Pistons 111. Actual total 212 vs line 216.5 (under by 4.5). Model projected 208.6.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
NBA Under 213.5 · +18.4% edge
✅ WON
+$7.37
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Final: Los Angeles Lakers 90 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 108. Actual total 198 vs line 213.5 (under by 15.5). Model projected 206.6.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Under 9.5 · +15.8% edge
❌ LOST
$7.08
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals
Final: Minnesota Twins 11 @ Washington Nationals 3. Model projected: Washington Nationals 3.9, Minnesota Twins 3.4. Actual total 14 vs line 9.5 (over by 4.5). Model projected 7.3.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Taj Bradley: ERA 2.85 vs xFIP 3.80 over 41 IP (severity 0.46) — Minnesota Twins ML may be overpriced by market
✦ 🌬️ Wind 13 mph blowing IN (SW) at Washington — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
NBA Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 · +14.2% edge
❌ LOST
$6.23
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Final: Los Angeles Lakers 90 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 108. Model win probability: 64.1%. Actual margin +18 (needed +15.5).
✦ Oklahoma City Thunder injury impact (-4.0%)
✦ Rest edge: Oklahoma City Thunder has 3 more rest day(s) (+2.4%)
PARLAY Detroit Pistons (Moneyline) + Under 216.5 (Total) · +22.2% edge
✅ WON
+$7.41
Detroit Pistons (Moneyline) + Under 216.5 (Total)
✅ Detroit Pistons (Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons) · ✅ Under 216.5 (Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons)
PARLAY Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 (Spread) + Under 213.5 (Total) · +19.1% edge
❌ LOST
$2.80
Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 (Spread) + Under 213.5 (Total)
❌ Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 (Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder) · ✅ Under 213.5 (Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder)
⚡ Pick Changes Since Morning Run
⚡ Bet updated: 'Under 216.5' (Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs, +18.1% edge) → 'Under 215.5' (Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks, +22.4% edge). Reason: new bet 'Under 215.5' (Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks) has 22.4% edge
⚡ Parlay updated: 'Chicago Cubs (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)' (+21.3%) → 'New York Knicks (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)' (+26.6%). Reason: new parlay has 26.6% edge vs 21.3%
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↓
MLB New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
HIGH
Mkt 50.7% → Model 80.7% +30.0% edge ▾
Market
50.7%
Model
80.7%
Edge
+30.0%
Key Signals
Michael Lorenzen FIP 4.88 / xFIP 3.88 | K/9: 6.4
Freddy Peralta FIP 3.62 / xFIP 3.55 | K/9: 9.9
Park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly: Coors Field)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
New York Mets injury impact (-5.0%)
🌡️ Cold (30°F) at Denver — ball doesn't carry, Under lean (−0.5 runs)
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Mets schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Colorado Rockies 5.1 — New York Mets 4.3
Research & Stats
🔵 Michael Lorenzen: ERA 6.09 | FIP 4.88 / xFIP 3.88 | K/9 6.4 | BB/9 2.4 | IP 34
🔴 Freddy Peralta: ERA 3.52 | FIP 3.62 / xFIP 3.55 | K/9 9.9 | BB/9 3.8 | IP 38
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.719 | AVG 0.250 | R/G 4.22
New York Mets offense: OPS 0.629 | AVG 0.224 | R/G 3.49
Bullpen ERA — Colorado Rockies: 4.59 | New York Mets: 3.91
Venue: Coors Field — park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Jose Rojas (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Nick Burdi (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Joe Jacques (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Kevin Herget (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Mike Tauchman (RF): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Nate Lavender (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Robert Stock (RP): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Grae Kessinger (3B): OUT
🌤 Weather (Denver): 30°F | Wind 9 mph N (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Colorado Rockies 5.13 | New York Mets 4.28
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢50.7
Buy contracts28
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.76
Profit if win+$13.24
Loss if lose-$14.76
Expected value +$7.82
Under 215.5 ↓
NBA Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
HIGH
Mkt 52.3% → Model 74.6% +22.4% edge ▾
Market
52.3%
Model
74.6%
Edge
+22.4%
Key Signals
Model projected score: New York Knicks 105 — Philadelphia 76ers 102
Model expected total: 206.9 vs market line 215.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.3
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.85
Profit if win+$9.15
Loss if lose-$10.85
Expected value +$4.08
Under 216.5 ↓
NBA Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
HIGH
Mkt 52.3% → Model 74.6% +22.4% edge ▾
Market
52.3%
Model
74.6%
Edge
+22.4%
Key Signals
Model projected score: New York Knicks 105 — Philadelphia 76ers 102
Model expected total: 206.9 vs market line 215.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.2
Buy contracts22
Total cost (incl. commission)$11.93
Profit if win+$10.07
Loss if lose-$11.93
Expected value +$5.02
Houston Astros +1.5 ↓
MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
HIGH
Mkt 45.6% → Model 66.4% +20.8% edge ▾
Market
45.6%
Model
66.4%
Edge
+20.8%
Key Signals
Lance McCullers Jr. FIP 4.39 / xFIP 3.85 | K/9: 9.5
Tyler Glasnow FIP 3.12 / xFIP 2.88 | K/9: 11.1
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Tyler Glasnow: ERA 2.56 vs xFIP 2.88 over 38 IP (severity 0.17) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 8 games in 7 days
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Houston Astros 4.3 — Los Angeles Dodgers 4.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Lance McCullers Jr.: ERA 6.32 | FIP 4.39 / xFIP 3.85 | K/9 9.5 | BB/9 4.9 | IP 31
🔴 Tyler Glasnow: ERA 2.56 | FIP 3.12 / xFIP 2.88 | K/9 11.1 | BB/9 3.1 | IP 38
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.775 | AVG 0.264 | R/G 4.95
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.788 | AVG 0.271 | R/G 5.11
Bullpen ERA — Houston Astros: 5.65 | Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.19
Venue: Daikin Park — neutral park
⚕ Houston Astros — Lucas Spence (OF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Walker Janek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Edwin Jimenez (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Daikin): 63°F | Wind 9 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Houston Astros 4.30 | Los Angeles Dodgers 4.51
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢46.1
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$7.70
Profit if win+$8.30
Loss if lose-$7.70
Expected value +$2.70
New York Knicks -10.5 ↓
NBA Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
HIGH
Mkt 50.2% → Model 65.8% +15.6% edge ▾
Market
50.2%
Model
65.8%
Edge
+15.6%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: New York Knicks (+2%)
Rating edge: New York Knicks (blended NetRtg diff +21.4)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Philadelphia 76ers injuries benefit New York Knicks (+1.8%)
Model projected score: New York Knicks 105 — Philadelphia 76ers 102
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: OffRtg 116.5 | DefRtg 110.1 | NetRtg 6.3
Philadelphia 76ers: OffRtg 115.9 | DefRtg 116.1 | NetRtg -0.2
New York Knicks last 14 days: NetRtg 26.8 | Win% 80%
Philadelphia 76ers last 14 days: NetRtg -6.8 | Win% 50%
Rest days — New York Knicks: 1 | Philadelphia 76ers: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Philadelphia 76ers — Joel Embiid (C): OUT
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢50.4
Buy contracts22
Total cost (incl. commission)$11.53
Profit if win+$10.47
Loss if lose-$11.53
Expected value +$4.84
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 57.8% · Edge: +26.6%
HIGH
New York Knicks (ML)
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks · Model: 90.0% · Edge: +11.8%
Colorado Rockies (ML)
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies · Model: 64.3% · Edge: +24.4%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢31.2
Buy contracts13
Total cost$4.32
Profit if win+$8.68
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 69.3% · Edge: +31.7%
HIGH
New York Knicks (ML)
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks · Model: 90.0% · Edge: +17.9%
Under 216.5
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks · Model: 77.0% · Edge: +24.8%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢37.6
Buy contracts15
Total cost$5.94
Profit if win+$9.06
Props Watchlist — 📊 Props sourced from DraftKings odds. Verify lines on Robinhood before betting — lines may differ slightly.
Andre Drummond
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 51.5% · Model 8.2 · +43.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
51.5%
Model Proj
8.2
Edge
+43.6%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 46.7%. Model projects 8.2.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 51.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 8.2 → edge +43.6%
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
Andre Drummond: 0.0 PPG / 8.4 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Quentin Grimes
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Points Over
HIGH
Over 8.5 51.0% · Model 11.6 · +28.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 8.5
Book Odds
51.0%
Model Proj
11.6
Edge
+28.1%
Draftkings: Over 5.5 at 57.3%. Model projects 11.6.
Key Signals
Market: Over 8.5 at 51.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.6 → edge +28.1%
New York Knicks allows 110.1 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
Quentin Grimes: 13.4 PPG / 3.6 RPG / 3.3 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Anthony Edwards
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
HIGH
Over 20.5 51.7% · Model 30.1 · +29.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 20.5
Book Odds
51.7%
Model Proj
30.1
Edge
+29.2%
Draftkings: Over 21.5 at 50.7%. Model projects 30.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 20.5 at 51.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 30.1 → edge +29.2%
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Anthony Edwards: 28.8 PPG / 0.0 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Points Over
HIGH
Over 9.5 50.5% · Model 11.9 · +23.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 9.5
Book Odds
50.5%
Model Proj
11.9
Edge
+23.1%
Draftkings: Over 9.5 at 50.5%. Model projects 11.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 9.5 at 50.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.9 → edge +23.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves allows 114.6 PPG (above avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 54.3% · Model 4.8 · +21.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
54.3%
Model Proj
4.8
Edge
+21.8%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 54.3%. Model projects 4.8.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 54.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.8 → edge +21.8%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Karl-Anthony Towns
NBA  New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers · Blocks Over
HIGH
Over 0.5 65.8% · Model 1.71 · +20.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 0.5
Book Odds
65.8%
Model Proj
1.71
Edge
+20.3%
Draftkings: Over 0.5 at 66.2%. Model projects 1.71.
Key Signals
Market: Over 0.5 at 65.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 1.71 → edge +20.4%
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
Karl-Anthony Towns: 0.0 PPG / 10.6 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 1.71 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Jacob Wilson
MLB  Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies · Hits Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 35.3% · Model 2.82 · +46.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
35.3%
Model Proj
2.82
Edge
+46.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 35.3%. Model: 2.82.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 35.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.82 → edge +46.8%
vs Zack Wheeler (FIP 2.02) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
Jacob Wilson: AVG 0.296 | OBP 0.313 | H/G 1.24 | TB/G 1.65 | HR/G 0.059 | HRR/G 2.15 (148 PA)
Facing Zack Wheeler: FIP 2.02
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
Nick Kurtz
MLB  Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 47.4% · Model 4.37 · +47.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
47.4%
Model Proj
4.37
Edge
+47.5%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 47.4%. Model: 4.37.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 47.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.37 → edge +47.5%
vs Zack Wheeler (FIP 2.02) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
Nick Kurtz: AVG 0.244 | OBP 0.408 | H/G 0.88 | TB/G 1.47 | HR/G 0.147 | HRR/G 1.91 (157 PA)
Facing Zack Wheeler: FIP 2.02
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
Jeff McNeil
MLB  Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 43.9% · Model 3.67 · +46.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.9%
Model Proj
3.67
Edge
+46.4%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.9%. Model: 3.67.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.67 → edge +46.4%
vs Zack Wheeler (FIP 2.02) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
Jeff McNeil: AVG 0.314 | OBP 0.379 | H/G 0.97 | TB/G 1.30 | HR/G 0.030 | HRR/G 1.61 (117 PA)
Facing Zack Wheeler: FIP 2.02
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
Jacob Wilson
MLB  Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 43.9% · Model 3.77 · +45.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.9%
Model Proj
3.77
Edge
+45.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.9%. Model: 3.77.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.77 → edge +45.9%
vs Zack Wheeler (FIP 2.02) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
Jacob Wilson: AVG 0.296 | OBP 0.313 | H/G 1.24 | TB/G 1.65 | HR/G 0.059 | HRR/G 2.15 (148 PA)
Facing Zack Wheeler: FIP 2.02
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 49.8% · Model 4.17 · +45.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.8%
Model Proj
4.17
Edge
+45.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.8%. Model: 4.17.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.17 → edge +45.9%
vs Paul Skenes (FIP 3.05) at Chase Field (park factor 1.01)
Research & Stats
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.374 | OBP 0.396 | H/G 1.48 | TB/G 2.56 | HR/G 0.222 | HRR/G 3.00 (113 PA)
Facing Paul Skenes: FIP 3.05
Park factor 1.01 at Chase Field
Tyler Soderstrom
MLB  Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 48.5% · Model 4.37 · +45.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
48.5%
Model Proj
4.37
Edge
+45.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 48.5%. Model: 4.37.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 48.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.37 → edge +45.8%
vs Zack Wheeler (FIP 2.02) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
Tyler Soderstrom: AVG 0.216 | OBP 0.303 | H/G 0.82 | TB/G 1.58 | HR/G 0.121 | HRR/G 1.91 (142 PA)
Facing Zack Wheeler: FIP 2.02
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↑
MLB
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
+30.0%
—
 28
14.8%
$14.76
+$13.24
2
Under 215.5 ↑
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
+22.4%
—
 20
10.8%
$10.85
+$9.15
3
Under 216.5 ↑
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
+22.4%
—
 22
11.9%
$11.93
+$10.07
4
Houston Astros +1.5 ↑
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
+20.8%
—
 16
7.7%
$7.70
+$8.30
5
New York Knicks -10.5 ↑
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
+15.6%
—
 22
11.5%
$11.53
+$10.47
P1
New York Knicks (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML) ↑
Parlay
+26.6%
—
 13
4.3%
$4.32
+$8.68
P2
New York Knicks (ML) + Under 216.5 ↑
Parlay
+31.7%
—
 15
5.9%
$5.94
+$9.06
Deployed $67.03 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $32.97
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
110
Model Hit Rate
47.3%
Avg Error
-1.7
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 29 31.0% 24.6 20.8 -3.8
Rebounds 22 50.0% 10.9 9.9 -1.1
Assists 9 33.3% 9.1 7.4 -1.6
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 24 75.0% 1.0 1.3 +0.3
HRR 4 25.0% 4.0 0.8 -3.2
Total Bases 1 0.0% 5.2 0.0 -5.2
HIGH confidence
49.2%
30H / 31M (61 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
▶ Hit Rate Trend (110 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-30 05-05
Model Performance
Record
41W–30L
Win Rate
57.7%
Total PnL
$+128.02
ROI
20.8%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
39W–29L (57.4%)
$+135.61
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
NBA
12W–6L (66.7%)
$+53.04
MLB
21W–13L (61.8%)
$+39.27
PARLAYS
8W–11L (42.1%)
$+35.71
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (72 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+128.02 total
$+137 $0 $-54 04-25 05-01 05-05
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-01 05-05
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 9 57.5% 50.0% -7.5%
15%+ 60 69.1% 56.7% -12.4%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.