Daily Betting Report

Tuesday, April 28, 2026 · Generated April 28, 2026 at 01:49 PM PDT
NBA: 3 games  |  MLB: 15 games  |  Budget: $100
📊 Yesterday's Results — Monday, April 27 1W–6L $34.61
MLB Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Spread · +38.2% edge
✅ WON
+$19.44
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
Final: Los Angeles Angels 7 @ Chicago White Sox 8. Model projected: Chicago White Sox 3.7, Los Angeles Angels 4.8. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ 🌧️ 92% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
✦ Anthony Kay FIP: 6.15 | K/9: 5.6
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Spread · +36.0% edge
❌ LOST
$13.81
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Final: St. Louis Cardinals 4 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 2. Model projected: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.0, St. Louis Cardinals 3.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 11 mph blowing OUT (SE) at Pittsburgh — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
✦ Mason Montgomery FIP: 2.21 | K/9: 17.0
NBA Under 225.5 Total · +31.4% edge
❌ LOST
$15.72
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Final: Minnesota Timberwolves 113 @ Denver Nuggets 125. Actual total 238 vs line 225.5 (over by 12.5). Model projected 212.8.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Under 9.0 Total · +24.7% edge
❌ LOST
$11.13
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
Final: Seattle Mariners 4 @ Minnesota Twins 11. Model projected: Minnesota Twins 3.8, Seattle Mariners 1.9. Actual total 15 vs line 9.0 (over by 6.0). Model projected 5.7. ⚠ Weather/rain likely a factor.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing IN (WNW) at Minneapolis — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
✦ 🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Minneapolis (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
MLB Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline · +16.1% edge
❌ LOST
$7.54
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Final: Boston Red Sox 5 @ Toronto Blue Jays 0. Model projected: Toronto Blue Jays 4.3, Boston Red Sox 2.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ Dylan Cease FIP: 1.37 | K/9: 15.7
✦ Ranger Suarez FIP: 4.13 | K/9: 6.3
PARLAY Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline) Parlay · +18.9% edge
❌ LOST
$2.87
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)
❌ Toronto Blue Jays (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays) · ❌ Chicago Cubs (Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres)
PARLAY Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline) Parlay · +20.1% edge
❌ LOST
$2.98
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
❌ Toronto Blue Jays (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays) · ❌ Los Angeles Angels (Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox)
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Under 215.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
🕐 4:10 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 52.0% → Model 79.4% +27.4% edge ▾
Market
52.0%
Model
79.4%
Edge
+27.4%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Boston Celtics 111 — Philadelphia 76ers 107
Model expected total: 204.8 vs market line 215.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Boston Celtics OffRtg: 114.9 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs Boston Celtics DefRtg: 107.2
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.0
Buy contracts25
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.50
Profit if win+$11.50
Loss if lose-$13.50
Expected value +$6.36
Under 216.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
🕐 6:40 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 52.2% → Model 72.5% +20.3% edge ▾
Market
52.2%
Model
72.5%
Edge
+20.3%
Key Signals
Model projected score: San Antonio Spurs 113 — Portland Trail Blazers 109
Model expected total: 208.7 vs market line 216.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs OffRtg: 119.8 vs Portland Trail Blazers DefRtg: 115.8
Portland Trail Blazers OffRtg: 115.5 vs San Antonio Spurs DefRtg: 111.5
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.2
Buy contracts18
Total cost (incl. commission)$9.75
Profit if win+$8.25
Loss if lose-$9.75
Expected value +$3.30
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
🕐 4:08 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 50.4% → Model 68.8% +18.4% edge ▾
Market
50.4%
Model
68.8%
Edge
+18.4%
Key Signals
Payton Tolle FIP 2.2 / xFIP 0.90 | K/9: 16.5
Park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly: Rogers Centre)
Toronto Blue Jays injury impact (-2.4%)
Boston Red Sox injury impact (-1.6%)
⚠ Toronto Blue Jays schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Boston Red Sox schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.2 — Boston Red Sox 4.2
Research & Stats
🔵 Trey Yesavage (home): stats unavailable
🔴 Payton Tolle: ERA 1.5 | FIP 2.2 / xFIP 0.90 | K/9 16.5 | BB/9 1.5 | IP 6
Toronto Blue Jays offense: OPS 0.687 | AVG 0.249 | R/G 3.93
Boston Red Sox offense: OPS 0.670 | AVG 0.234 | R/G 4.21
Bullpen ERA — Toronto Blue Jays: 4.47 | Boston Red Sox: 4.23
Venue: Rogers Centre — park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Andres Gimenez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — CJ Stubbs (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Geovanny Jesus Planchart (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Chay Yeager (RP): OUT
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Brendan Rodgers (2B): OUT
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Hobie Harris (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Brennan Miller (near-neutral tendencies)
Model expected runs: Toronto Blue Jays 4.23 | Boston Red Sox 4.16
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢50.4
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.38
Profit if win+$7.62
Loss if lose-$8.38
Expected value +$2.62
Under 214.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
🕐 5:10 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 69.0% +16.5% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
69.0%
Edge
+16.5%
Key Signals
Model projected score: New York Knicks 112 — Atlanta Hawks 110
Model expected total: 208.0 vs market line 214.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Atlanta Hawks DefRtg: 116.0
Atlanta Hawks OffRtg: 118.5 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts14
Total cost (incl. commission)$7.63
Profit if win+$6.37
Loss if lose-$7.63
Expected value +$2.03
New York Knicks -6.5 ↓
NBA  Spread  ·  Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
🕐 5:10 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 50.1% → Model 65.9% +15.8% edge ▾
Market
50.1%
Model
65.9%
Edge
+15.8%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: New York Knicks (+2%)
Rating edge: New York Knicks (blended NetRtg diff +8.6)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Atlanta Hawks injuries benefit New York Knicks (+4.0%)
Model projected score: New York Knicks 105 — Atlanta Hawks 103
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: OffRtg 116.5 | DefRtg 110.1 | NetRtg 6.3
Atlanta Hawks: OffRtg 118.5 | DefRtg 116.0 | NetRtg 2.4
New York Knicks last 14 days: NetRtg 6.2 | Win% 50%
Atlanta Hawks last 14 days: NetRtg -6.2 | Win% 50%
Rest days — New York Knicks: 2 | Atlanta Hawks: 2
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Atlanta Hawks — Keshon Gilbert (G): OUT
⚕ Atlanta Hawks — Jock Landale (C): OUT
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢50.1
Buy contracts13
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.77
Profit if win+$6.23
Loss if lose-$6.77
Expected value +$1.79
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 71.5% · Edge: +29.6%
HIGH
Boston Celtics (Moneyline)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics · Model: 90.0% · Edge: +9.5%
Under 215.5 (Total)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics · Model: 79.4% · Edge: +27.4%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢41.9
Buy contracts14
Total cost$6.14
Profit if win+$7.86
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 52.2% · Edge: +26.2%
HIGH
Boston Celtics -10.5 (Spread)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics · Model: 65.8% · Edge: +15.6%
Under 215.5 (Total)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics · Model: 79.4% · Edge: +27.4%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.1
Buy contracts14
Total cost$3.93
Profit if win+$10.07
Props Watchlist — model projections only. No sportsbook line available. Search Robinhood manually before betting.
Karl-Anthony Towns
NBA  New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 11.9 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.9
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Karl-Anthony Towns rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.9 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Karl-Anthony Towns averages 11.9 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 116.0 (opp) | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | Net +2.4
New York Knicks recent (14d): PPG 110.2 | OPPG 104.0 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 113.8 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — New York Knicks: 2d | Atlanta Hawks: 2d
Donovan Clingan
NBA  Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 11.6 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.6
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Donovan Clingan rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.6 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Donovan Clingan averages 11.6 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | PPG 115.5 | OPPG 111.5 (opp) | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers recent (14d): PPG 101.2 | OPPG 112.0 | Win% 25%
Model projected team pts: 108.6 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Portland Trail Blazers: 1d | San Antonio Spurs: 1d
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 11.5 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.5
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Victor Wembanyama rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Victor Wembanyama averages 11.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 115.8 (opp) | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs recent (14d): PPG 112.0 | OPPG 101.2 | Win% 75%
Model projected team pts: 115.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 1d | Portland Trail Blazers: 1d
Jalen Johnson
NBA  Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 10.3 · Bet Over ≤ 10 ▾
Projected
10.3
Bet Over ≤
10
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Jalen Johnson rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 10.3 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 10.
Key Signals
Jalen Johnson averages 10.3 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Atlanta Hawks: 46W-36L | PPG 118.5 | OPPG 110.1 (opp) | Net +2.4
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | Net +6.3
Atlanta Hawks recent (14d): PPG 104.0 | OPPG 110.2 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 110.2 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Atlanta Hawks: 2d | New York Knicks: 2d
Jaylen Brown
NBA  Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 30.2 · Bet Over ≤ 30 ▾
Projected
30.2
Bet Over ≤
30
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Jaylen Brown points' on Robinhood. Model line: 30.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 30.
Key Signals
Jaylen Brown season avg: 28.7 PPG
Philadelphia 76ers allows 116.1 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Boston Celtics: 56W-26L | PPG 114.9 | OPPG 116.1 (opp) | Net +7.7
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | Net -0.2
Boston Celtics recent (14d): PPG 114.0 | OPPG 99.5 | Win% 75%
Model projected team pts: 114.9 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Boston Celtics: 1d | Philadelphia 76ers: 1d
Tyrese Maxey
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 29.6 · Bet Over ≤ 29 ▾
Projected
29.6
Bet Over ≤
29
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Tyrese Maxey points' on Robinhood. Model line: 29.6 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 29.
Key Signals
Tyrese Maxey season avg: 28.3 PPG
Boston Celtics allows 107.2 PPG — average defense
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 107.2 (opp) | Net -0.2
Boston Celtics: 56W-26L | Net +7.7
Philadelphia 76ers recent (14d): PPG 99.5 | OPPG 114.0 | Win% 25%
Model projected team pts: 106.7 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1d | Boston Celtics: 1d
Ryan O'Hearn
MLB  Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Ryan O'Hearn hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Kyle Leahy (FIP 5.49).
Key Signals
Ryan O'Hearn: .316 AVG / .407 OBP this season (113 PA)
Kyle Leahy FIP 5.49 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.8 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Kyle Leahy: ERA 5.63 | FIP 5.49 | xFIP 4.35 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 4.1 | HR/9 1.50
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: PNC Park (park factor 0.96)
Opponent K%: 24.4% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 5.49 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.8 hits in 5.5 inn
Bryan Reynolds
MLB  Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Bryan Reynolds hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Kyle Leahy (FIP 5.49).
Key Signals
Bryan Reynolds: .233 AVG / .375 OBP this season (128 PA)
Kyle Leahy FIP 5.49 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.8 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Kyle Leahy: ERA 5.63 | FIP 5.49 | xFIP 4.35 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 4.1 | HR/9 1.50
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: PNC Park (park factor 0.96)
Opponent K%: 24.4% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 5.49 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.8 hits in 5.5 inn
Spencer Horwitz
MLB  Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Spencer Horwitz hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Kyle Leahy (FIP 5.49).
Key Signals
Spencer Horwitz: .257 AVG / .367 OBP this season (90 PA)
Kyle Leahy FIP 5.49 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.8 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Kyle Leahy: ERA 5.63 | FIP 5.49 | xFIP 4.35 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 4.1 | HR/9 1.50
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: PNC Park (park factor 0.96)
Opponent K%: 24.4% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 5.49 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.8 hits in 5.5 inn
Jacob deGrom
MLB  Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 8.0 · Bet Over ≤ 8 ▾
Projected
8.0
Bet Over ≤
8
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Jacob deGrom strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~8.0 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 8.
Key Signals
K/9: 12.5 → adjusted 13.1 → projects 8.0 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.32 / xFIP 2.65 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 25 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Jacob deGrom: ERA 2.13 | FIP 3.32 | xFIP 2.65 | K/9 12.5 | BB/9 2.5 | HR/9 1.43
Season IP: 25 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Globe Life Field (park factor 1.05)
Opponent K%: 23.9% (league avg 22.8%)
José Soriano
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.8 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.8
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'José Soriano strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.8 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.4 → adjusted 11.2 → projects 6.8 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.29 / xFIP 2.81 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 37 — limited sample
Research & Stats
José Soriano: ERA 0.24 | FIP 2.29 | xFIP 2.81 | K/9 10.4 | BB/9 3.1 | HR/9 0.24
Season IP: 37 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Rate Field (park factor 0.95)
Opponent K%: 24.6% (league avg 22.8%)
Cam Schlittler
MLB  New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.8 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.8
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Cam Schlittler strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.8 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.5 → adjusted 11.2 → projects 6.8 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 1.58 / xFIP 2.28 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 35 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Cam Schlittler: ERA 1.77 | FIP 1.58 | xFIP 2.28 | K/9 10.5 | BB/9 1.0 | HR/9 0.26
Season IP: 35 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Globe Life Field (park factor 1.05)
Opponent K%: 24.4% (league avg 22.8%)
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Under 215.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
4:10 PM PDT
+27.4%
—
 25
13.5%
$13.50
+$11.50
2
Under 216.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
6:40 PM PDT
+20.3%
—
 18
9.8%
$9.75
+$8.25
3
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
4:08 PM PDT
+18.4%
—
 16
8.4%
$8.38
+$7.62
4
Under 214.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
5:10 PM PDT
+16.5%
—
 14
7.6%
$7.63
+$6.37
5
New York Knicks -6.5 (Spread) ↑
NBA
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
5:10 PM PDT
+15.8%
—
 13
6.8%
$6.77
+$6.23
P1
Boston Celtics (Moneyline) + Under 215.5 (Total) ↑
Parlay
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics / Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
+29.6%
—
 14
6.1%
$6.14
+$7.86
P2
Boston Celtics -10.5 (Spread) + Under 215.5 (Total) ↑
Parlay
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics / Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
+26.2%
—
 14
3.9%
$3.93
+$10.07
Deployed $56.10 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $43.90
Props Model Accuracy — how often the model's projection exceeded the actual stat
Props Settled
27
Model Hit Rate
37.0%
Avg Error
-2.6
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 6 16.7% 28.6 21.5 -7.1
Rebounds 7 57.1% 11.8 10.7 -1.1
Assists 3 33.3% 10.4 10.3 -0.1
Strikeouts 9 22.2% 6.4 4.2 -2.2
Hits 2 100.0% 1.0 1.5 +0.5
HIGH confidence
58.3%
7H / 5M (12 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
20.0%
3H / 12M (15 settled)
Model Performance
Record
7W–11L
Win Rate
38.9%
Total PnL
$-38.99
ROI
-19.3%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
6W–10L (37.5%)
$-24.21
MEDIUM
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-14.78
NBA
2W–3L (40.0%)
$-18.73
MLB
3W–6L (33.3%)
$-46.91
PARLAY
2W–2L (50.0%)
$+26.65
⚠ Only 18 settled bet(s) — need 30+ for statistically meaningful calibration.
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (18 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $-38.99 total
$+15 $0 $-54 04-25 04-26 04-27
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-26 04-27
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 2 55.9% 100.0% +44.1%
15%+ 16 75.7% 31.2% -44.5%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.