Daily Betting Report

Tuesday, May 05, 2026 · Generated May 05, 2026 at 08:56 PM PDT
NBA: 0 games  |  MLB: 0 games  |  Budget: $100
📊 Yesterday's Results — Monday, May 04 5W–2L +$24.86
MLB Under 11.5 · +13.2% edge
✅ WON
+$4.95
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Final: Cincinnati Reds 4 @ Chicago Cubs 5. Model projected: Chicago Cubs 5.2, Cincinnati Reds 4.4. Actual total 9 vs line 11.5 (under by 2.5). Model projected 9.6.
✦ Edward Cabrera FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.91 | K/9: 7.4
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Edward Cabrera: ERA 3.06 vs xFIP 3.91 over 35 IP (severity 0.48) — Chicago Cubs ML may be overpriced by market
MLB Under 8.5 · +11.0% edge
✅ WON
+$4.14
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Final: Philadelphia Phillies 1 @ Miami Marlins 0. Model projected: Miami Marlins 3.5, Philadelphia Phillies 3.5. Actual total 1 vs line 8.5 (under by 7.5). Model projected 7.0.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Janson Junk: ERA 3.00 vs xFIP 3.95 over 33 IP (severity 0.56) — Miami Marlins ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Janson Junk FIP 3.44 / xFIP 3.95 | K/9: 5.7
NBA Under 220.5 · +26.0% edge
✅ WON
+$11.89
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
Final: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 @ San Antonio Spurs 102. Actual total 206 vs line 220.5 (under by 14.5). Model projected 209.4.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
NBA New York Knicks -7.5 · +21.8% edge
✅ WON
+$9.13
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
Final: Philadelphia 76ers 98 @ New York Knicks 137. Model win probability: 71.9%. Actual margin +39 (needed -7.5).
✦ Rest edge: New York Knicks has 2 more rest day(s) (+1.6%)
NBA Under 213.5 · +14.5% edge
❌ LOST
$8.14
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
Final: Philadelphia 76ers 98 @ New York Knicks 137. Actual total 235 vs line 213.5 (over by 21.5). Model projected 206.9.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
PARLAY Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 (Spread) + Under 220.5 (Total) · +19.3% edge
✅ WON
+$7.19
Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 (Spread) + Under 220.5 (Total)
✅ Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 (Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs) · ✅ Under 220.5 (Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs)
PARLAY New York Knicks (Moneyline) + Under 213.5 (Total) · +24.5% edge
❌ LOST
$4.30
New York Knicks (Moneyline) + Under 213.5 (Total)
✅ New York Knicks (Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks) · ❌ Under 213.5 (Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks)
🏀
No NBA games today.
⚾
No MLB games today.
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Houston Astros +1.5 ↓
MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 45.1% → Model 69.4% +24.3% edge ▾
Market
45.1%
Model
69.4%
Edge
+24.3%
Key Signals
Peter Lambert FIP 2.07 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9: 11.3
Shohei Ohtani FIP 1.83 / xFIP 3.05 | K/9: 10.2
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.60 vs xFIP 3.05 over 30 IP (severity 0.79) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
Houston Astros injury impact (-2.0%)
🌬️ Cross wind 10 mph (S) at Daikin — minimal scoring impact
🌡️ Cool (56°F) at Daikin — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 8 games in 7 days
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Houston Astros 4.3 — Los Angeles Dodgers 4.2
Research & Stats
🔵 Peter Lambert: ERA 3.52 | FIP 2.07 / xFIP 3.11 | K/9 11.3 | BB/9 4.2 | IP 15
🔴 Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.6 | FIP 1.83 / xFIP 3.05 | K/9 10.2 | BB/9 2.7 | IP 30
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.780 | AVG 0.266 | R/G 5.03
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.795 | AVG 0.273 | R/G 5.23
Bullpen ERA — Houston Astros: 5.78 | Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.21
Venue: Daikin Park — neutral park
⚕ Houston Astros — Lucas Spence (OF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Walker Janek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Yainer Diaz (C): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Shane Livensparger (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Daikin): 56°F | Wind 10 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Houston Astros 4.33 | Los Angeles Dodgers 4.20
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢45.1
Buy contracts22
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.37
Profit if win+$11.63
Loss if lose-$10.37
Expected value +$4.90
Under 216.5 ↓
NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 52.3% → Model 72.9% +20.6% edge ▾
Market
52.3%
Model
72.9%
Edge
+20.6%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Detroit Pistons 105 — Cleveland Cavaliers 103
Model expected total: 208.6 vs market line 216.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons OffRtg: 117.8 vs Cleveland Cavaliers DefRtg: 115.4
Cleveland Cavaliers OffRtg: 119.5 vs Detroit Pistons DefRtg: 109.6
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.3
Buy contracts18
Total cost (incl. commission)$9.77
Profit if win+$8.23
Loss if lose-$9.77
Expected value +$3.34
Under 213.5 ↓
NBA Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 52.0% → Model 70.3% +18.4% edge ▾
Market
52.0%
Model
70.3%
Edge
+18.4%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 105 — Los Angeles Lakers 101
Model expected total: 206.6 vs market line 213.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Oklahoma City Thunder OffRtg: 119.0 vs Los Angeles Lakers DefRtg: 114.6
Los Angeles Lakers OffRtg: 116.3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder DefRtg: 107.9
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.0
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.63
Profit if win+$7.37
Loss if lose-$8.63
Expected value +$2.62
Under 9.5 ↓
MLB Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 68.3% +15.8% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
68.3%
Edge
+15.8%
Key Signals
Cade Cavalli FIP 2.5 / xFIP 3.06 | K/9: 11.3
Taj Bradley FIP 3.74 / xFIP 3.80 | K/9: 9.7
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Taj Bradley: ERA 2.85 vs xFIP 3.80 over 41 IP (severity 0.46) — Minnesota Twins ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly: Nationals Park)
Washington Nationals injury impact (-6.0%)
Minnesota Twins injury impact (-6.0%)
🌬️ Wind 13 mph blowing IN (SW) at Washington — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
⚠ Washington Nationals schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Minnesota Twins schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Washington Nationals 3.9 — Minnesota Twins 3.4
Model expected total: 7.4 vs line 9.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Cade Cavalli: ERA 3.82 | FIP 2.5 / xFIP 3.06 | K/9 11.3 | BB/9 4.2 | IP 30
🔴 Taj Bradley: ERA 2.85 | FIP 3.74 / xFIP 3.80 | K/9 9.7 | BB/9 3.3 | IP 41
Washington Nationals offense: OPS 0.702 | AVG 0.239 | R/G 5.14
Minnesota Twins offense: OPS 0.707 | AVG 0.235 | R/G 4.71
Bullpen ERA — Washington Nationals: 4.81 | Minnesota Twins: 4.46
Venue: Nationals Park — park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Washington Nationals — Luis Garcia Jr. (1B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Washington Nationals — Tyler Baum (DH): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Washington Nationals — Jarlin Susana (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Washington Nationals — Travis Sykora (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Washington Nationals — Joan Adon (RP): OUT
⚕ Washington Nationals — Tyler Stuart (SP): OUT
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Joe Ryan (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Julian Merryweather (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Walker Jenkins (CF): OUT
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Matt Canterino (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Twins — Cory Lewis (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Mark Wegner (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Washington): 85°F | Wind 13 mph SW (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Washington Nationals 3.92 | Minnesota Twins 3.45
⚠ Washington Nationals injury credibility cap applied — model probability anchored near market (53%)
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts13
Total cost (incl. commission)$7.08
Profit if win+$5.92
Loss if lose-$7.08
Expected value +$1.79
Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 ↓
NBA Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 49.9% → Model 64.1% +14.2% edge ▾
Market
49.9%
Model
64.1%
Edge
+14.2%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Oklahoma City Thunder (+2%)
Rating edge: Oklahoma City Thunder (blended NetRtg diff +9.8)
Rest edge: Oklahoma City Thunder has 3 more rest day(s) (+2.4%)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Oklahoma City Thunder injury impact (-4.0%)
Los Angeles Lakers injuries benefit Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.2%)
Model projected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 105 — Los Angeles Lakers 101
Research & Stats
Oklahoma City Thunder: OffRtg 119.0 | DefRtg 107.9 | NetRtg 11.1
Los Angeles Lakers: OffRtg 116.3 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 1.8
Oklahoma City Thunder last 14 days: NetRtg 11.3 | Win% 100%
Los Angeles Lakers last 14 days: NetRtg 1.2 | Win% 60%
Rest days — Oklahoma City Thunder: 7 | Los Angeles Lakers: 3
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Oklahoma City Thunder — Jalen Williams (G): OUT
⚕ Oklahoma City Thunder — Thomas Sorber (C): OUT
⚕ Los Angeles Lakers — Luka Doncic (G): OUT
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢49.9
Buy contracts12
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.23
Profit if win+$5.77
Loss if lose-$6.23
Expected value +$1.46
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 52.8% · Edge: +22.2%
🔒 Locked HIGH
Detroit Pistons (ML)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons · Model: 72.5% · Edge: +13.9%
Under 216.5
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons · Model: 72.9% · Edge: +20.6%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢30.6
Buy contracts11
Total cost$3.59
Profit if win+$7.41
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 45.1% · Edge: +19.1%
🔒 Locked HIGH
Los Angeles Lakers +15.5
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder · Model: 64.1% · Edge: +14.2%
Under 213.5
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder · Model: 70.3% · Edge: +18.4%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢25.9
Buy contracts10
Total cost$2.80
Profit if win+$7.20
Props Watchlist — 📊 Props sourced from DraftKings odds. Verify lines on Robinhood before betting — lines may differ slightly.
Christian Walker
MLB  Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers · HRR Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 1.5 43.5% · Model 5.13 · +52.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.5%
Model Proj
5.13
Edge
+52.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.5%. Model: 5.13.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.13 → edge +52.6%
vs Shohei Ohtani (FIP 1.83) at Daikin Park (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Christian Walker: AVG 0.308 | OBP 0.385 | H/G 1.11 | TB/G 2.03 | HR/G 0.222 | HRR/G 2.44 (148 PA)
Facing Shohei Ohtani: FIP 1.83
Park factor 1.00 at Daikin Park
Jose Altuve
MLB  Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers · HRR Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 1.5 44.1% · Model 4.01 · +49.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
44.1%
Model Proj
4.01
Edge
+49.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 44.1%. Model: 4.01.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 44.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.01 → edge +49.8%
vs Shohei Ohtani (FIP 1.83) at Daikin Park (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Jose Altuve: AVG 0.248 | OBP 0.336 | H/G 0.97 | TB/G 1.51 | HR/G 0.091 | HRR/G 1.91 (147 PA)
Facing Shohei Ohtani: FIP 1.83
Park factor 1.00 at Daikin Park
Carlos Correa
MLB  Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers · HRR Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 1.5 49.0% · Model 4.73 · +48.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.0%
Model Proj
4.73
Edge
+48.2%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.0%. Model: 4.73.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.73 → edge +48.2%
vs Shohei Ohtani (FIP 1.83) at Daikin Park (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Carlos Correa: AVG 0.279 | OBP 0.369 | H/G 1.06 | TB/G 1.59 | HR/G 0.094 | HRR/G 2.25 (141 PA)
Facing Shohei Ohtani: FIP 1.83
Park factor 1.00 at Daikin Park
Yordan Alvarez
MLB  Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Total Bases Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 1.5 49.8% · Model 5.25 · +45.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.8%
Model Proj
5.25
Edge
+45.2%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.8%. Model: 5.25.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.25 → edge +45.2%
vs Shohei Ohtani (FIP 1.83) at Daikin Park (park factor 1.00)
Research & Stats
Yordan Alvarez: AVG 0.333 | OBP 0.438 | H/G 1.25 | TB/G 2.50 | HR/G 0.333 | HRR/G 2.72 (162 PA)
Facing Shohei Ohtani: FIP 1.83
Park factor 1.00 at Daikin Park
Tyler Soderstrom
MLB  Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies · HRR Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 1.5 49.0% · Model 3.43 · +44.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.0%
Model Proj
3.43
Edge
+44.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.0%. Model: 3.43.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.43 → edge +44.8%
vs Cristopher Sánchez (FIP 2.65) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
Tyler Soderstrom: AVG 0.221 | OBP 0.304 | H/G 0.84 | TB/G 1.62 | HR/G 0.125 | HRR/G 1.97 (138 PA)
Facing Cristopher Sánchez: FIP 2.65
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
Nick Kurtz
MLB  Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies · HRR Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 1.5 49.8% · Model 3.38 · +44.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.8%
Model Proj
3.38
Edge
+44.3%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.8%. Model: 3.38.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.38 → edge +44.3%
vs Cristopher Sánchez (FIP 2.65) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
Nick Kurtz: AVG 0.244 | OBP 0.412 | H/G 0.88 | TB/G 1.49 | HR/G 0.151 | HRR/G 1.94 (153 PA)
Facing Cristopher Sánchez: FIP 2.65
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
Jaylon Tyson
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 6.5 52.8% · Model 12.9 · +40.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 6.5
Book Odds
52.8%
Model Proj
12.9
Edge
+40.6%
Draftkings: Over 6.5 at 52.8%. Model projects 12.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 6.5 at 52.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 12.9 → edge +40.6%
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG (below avg)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jaylon Tyson: 13.2 PPG / 5.1 RPG / 2.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Sam Merrill
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 5.5 58.5% · Model 12.5 · +39.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 5.5
Book Odds
58.5%
Model Proj
12.5
Edge
+39.7%
Draftkings: Over 5.5 at 58.5%. Model projects 12.5.
Key Signals
Market: Over 5.5 at 58.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 12.5 → edge +39.7%
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG (below avg)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Sam Merrill: 12.8 PPG / 2.6 RPG / 2.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Sam Merrill
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Assists Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 1.5 38.8% · Model 2.4 · +36.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
38.8%
Model Proj
2.4
Edge
+36.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 38.8%. Model projects 2.4.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 38.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.4 → edge +36.1%
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Sam Merrill: 12.8 PPG / 2.6 RPG / 2.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jaylon Tyson
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Rebounds Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 2.5 57.4% · Model 5.1 · +34.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 2.5
Book Odds
57.4%
Model Proj
5.1
Edge
+34.8%
Draftkings: Over 2.5 at 57.4%. Model projects 5.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 2.5 at 57.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.1 → edge +34.8%
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jaylon Tyson: 13.2 PPG / 5.1 RPG / 2.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jaylin Williams
NBA  Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers · Points Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 3.5 53.1% · Model 7.4 · +34.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
53.1%
Model Proj
7.4
Edge
+34.5%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 53.1%. Model projects 7.4.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 53.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 7.4 → edge +34.5%
Los Angeles Lakers allows 114.6 PPG (above avg)
Research & Stats
Oklahoma City Thunder: Net RTG +11.1 | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 107.9
Los Angeles Lakers: Net RTG +1.8 | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 114.6
Jaylin Williams: 7.2 PPG / 5.5 RPG / 2.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jake LaRavia
NBA  Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Points Over
🔒 Locked HIGH
Over 4.5 49.3% · Model 7.9 · +33.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 4.5
Book Odds
49.3%
Model Proj
7.9
Edge
+33.8%
Draftkings: Over 4.5 at 49.3%. Model projects 7.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 4.5 at 49.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 7.9 → edge +33.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder allows 107.9 PPG (below avg)
Research & Stats
Los Angeles Lakers: Net RTG +1.8 | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 114.6
Oklahoma City Thunder: Net RTG +11.1 | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 107.9
Jake LaRavia: 8.2 PPG / 4.0 RPG / 1.8 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Houston Astros +1.5 ↑
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
+24.3%
—
 22
10.4%
$10.37
+$11.63
2
Under 216.5 ↑
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
+20.6%
—
 18
9.8%
$9.77
+$8.23
3
Under 213.5 ↑
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
+18.4%
—
 16
8.6%
$8.63
+$7.37
4
Under 9.5 ↑
MLB
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals
+15.8%
—
 13
7.1%
$7.08
+$5.92
5
Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 ↑
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
+14.2%
—
 12
6.2%
$6.23
+$5.77
P1
Detroit Pistons (ML) + Under 216.5 ↑
Parlay
+22.2%
—
 11
3.6%
$3.59
+$7.41
P2
Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 + Under 213.5 ↑
Parlay
+19.1%
—
 10
2.8%
$2.80
+$7.20
Deployed $48.47 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $51.53
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
99
Model Hit Rate
50.5%
Avg Error
-1.3
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 25 36.0% 26.9 23.9 -3.0
Rebounds 21 47.6% 11.2 10.1 -1.1
Assists 8 37.5% 9.9 8.2 -1.6
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 24 75.0% 1.0 1.3 +0.3
HIGH confidence
56.0%
28H / 22M (50 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
▶ Hit Rate Trend (99 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-30 05-04
Model Performance
Record
37W–27L
Win Rate
57.8%
Total PnL
$+109.49
ROI
19.4%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
35W–26L (57.4%)
$+117.08
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
NBA
10W–5L (66.7%)
$+43.67
MLB
20W–12L (62.5%)
$+34.72
PARLAYS
7W–10L (41.2%)
$+31.10
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (65 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+109.49 total
$+115 $0 $-54 04-25 04-30 05-04
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-30 05-04
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 8 56.6% 57.1% +0.5%
15%+ 54 69.8% 55.6% -14.2%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.