Daily Betting Report

Wednesday, April 29, 2026 · Generated April 29, 2026 at 09:47 AM PDT
NBA: 3 games  |  MLB: 15 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 60 used · 19,940 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Tuesday, April 28 4W–2L +$18.28
NBA Under 218.5 Total · +25.2% edge
✅ WON
+$10.54
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
Final: Portland Trail Blazers 95 @ San Antonio Spurs 114. Actual total 209 vs line 218.5 (under by 9.5). Model projected 208.7.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
NBA San Antonio Spurs -10.5 Spread · +15.3% edge
✅ WON
+$6.18
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
Final: Portland Trail Blazers 95 @ San Antonio Spurs 114. Model win probability: 65.8%. Actual margin +19 (needed -10.5).
✦ San Antonio Spurs injury impact (-1.9%)
✦ Portland Trail Blazers injuries benefit San Antonio Spurs (+2.2%)
MLB Over 7.5 Total · +13.1% edge
❌ LOST
$5.85
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Final: Miami Marlins 2 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 1. Model projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1, Miami Marlins 4.0. Actual total 3 vs line 7.5 (under by 4.5). Model projected 9.1.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.38 vs xFIP 3.11 over 24 IP (severity 0.79) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Janson Junk: ERA 3.67 vs xFIP 3.97 over 27 IP (severity 0.20) — Miami Marlins ML may be overpriced by market
MLB Miami Marlins +1.5 Spread · +6.9% edge
✅ WON
+$2.06
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Final: Miami Marlins 2 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 1. Model projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1, Miami Marlins 4.0. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Shohei Ohtani: ERA 0.38 vs xFIP 3.11 over 24 IP (severity 0.79) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Janson Junk: ERA 3.67 vs xFIP 3.97 over 27 IP (severity 0.20) — Miami Marlins ML may be overpriced by market
PARLAY San Antonio Spurs (Moneyline) + Under 218.5 (Total) Parlay · +27.0% edge
✅ WON
+$6.64
San Antonio Spurs (Moneyline) + Under 218.5 (Total)
✅ San Antonio Spurs (Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs) · ✅ Under 218.5 (Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs)
PARLAY Miami Marlins +1.5 (Spread) + Over 7.5 (Total) Parlay · +10.5% edge
❌ LOST
$1.29
Miami Marlins +1.5 (Spread) + Over 7.5 (Total)
✅ Miami Marlins +1.5 (Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers) · ❌ Over 7.5 (Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers)
⚡ Pick Changes Since Morning Run
⚡ Bet updated: 'Orlando Magic +9.5' (Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons, +23.7% edge) → 'Toronto Blue Jays +1.5' (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, +26.4% edge). Reason: new bet 'Toronto Blue Jays +1.5' (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays) has 26.4% edge
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Houston Astros ↓
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
🕐 3:36 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 46.8% → Model 79.6% +32.8% edge ▾
Market
46.8%
Model
79.6%
Edge
+32.8%
Key Signals
Chris Bassitt FIP 5.95 / xFIP 5.76 | K/9: 4.3
Peter Lambert FIP 1.38 / xFIP 1.97 | K/9: 13.1
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-3.3%)
🌡️ Cool (58°F) at Baltimore — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
🌧️ 86% precipitation chance at Baltimore (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Baltimore Orioles 3.6 — Houston Astros 5.7
Research & Stats
🔵 Chris Bassitt: ERA 6.75 | FIP 5.95 / xFIP 5.76 | K/9 4.3 | BB/9 5.5 | IP 21
🔴 Peter Lambert: ERA 3.27 | FIP 1.38 / xFIP 1.97 | K/9 13.1 | BB/9 3.3 | IP 11
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.722 | AVG 0.240 | R/G 4.48
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.784 | AVG 0.260 | R/G 5.13
Bullpen ERA — Baltimore Orioles: 4.28 | Houston Astros: 5.96
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Hans Crouse (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Ryan Noda (1B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Baltimore): 58°F | Wind 9 mph SSE (cross wind) | Precip 86%
Model expected runs: Baltimore Orioles 3.57 | Houston Astros 5.70
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢46.7
Buy contracts30
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.61
Profit if win+$15.39
Loss if lose-$14.61
Expected value +$9.28
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
🕐 4:41 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 41.7% → Model 71.0% +29.4% edge ▾
Market
41.7%
Model
71.0%
Edge
+29.4%
Key Signals
Brandon Sproat FIP 6.1 / xFIP 4.39 | K/9: 8.1
Eduardo Rodriguez FIP 5.06 / xFIP 4.64 | K/9: 5.8
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Eduardo Rodriguez: ERA 2.89 vs xFIP 4.64 over 28 IP (severity 1.14) — Arizona Diamondbacks ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.02 (pitcher-friendly: American Family Field)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-5.8%)
⚠ Milwaukee Brewers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.5 — Arizona Diamondbacks 4.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Brandon Sproat: ERA 6.45 | FIP 6.1 / xFIP 4.39 | K/9 8.1 | BB/9 5.3 | IP 22
🔴 Eduardo Rodriguez: ERA 2.89 | FIP 5.06 / xFIP 4.64 | K/9 5.8 | BB/9 3.9 | IP 28
Milwaukee Brewers offense: OPS 0.691 | AVG 0.238 | R/G 5.18
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.725 | AVG 0.250 | R/G 4.79
Bullpen ERA — Milwaukee Brewers: 3.75 | Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.86
Venue: American Family Field — park factor 1.02 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — Gerson Garabito (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — J.B. Bukauskas (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Geraldo Perdomo (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Zac Gallen (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
Model expected runs: Milwaukee Brewers 4.49 | Arizona Diamondbacks 4.75
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢41.7
Buy contracts27
Total cost (incl. commission)$11.79
Profit if win+$15.21
Loss if lose-$11.79
Expected value +$7.39
Colorado Rockies ↓
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
🕐 3:41 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 41.9% → Model 71.0% +29.1% edge ▾
Market
41.9%
Model
71.0%
Edge
+29.1%
Key Signals
Brandon Williamson FIP 6.0 / xFIP 5.90 | K/9: 5.4
Tomoyuki Sugano FIP 4.92 / xFIP 3.78 | K/9: 6.6
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Brandon Williamson: ERA 5.40 vs xFIP 5.90 over 25 IP (severity 0.34) — Cincinnati Reds ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Tomoyuki Sugano: ERA 3.42 vs xFIP 3.78 over 26 IP (severity 0.24) — Colorado Rockies ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.12 (hitter-friendly: Great American Ball Park)
Cincinnati Reds injury impact (-5.8%)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.7%)
🌡️ Cool (59°F) at Cincinnati — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Cincinnati Reds schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Cincinnati Reds 4.5 — Colorado Rockies 5.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Brandon Williamson: ERA 5.4 | FIP 6.0 / xFIP 5.90 | K/9 5.4 | BB/9 5.8 | IP 25
🔴 Tomoyuki Sugano: ERA 3.42 | FIP 4.92 / xFIP 3.78 | K/9 6.6 | BB/9 2.1 | IP 26
Cincinnati Reds offense: OPS 0.693 | AVG 0.218 | R/G 4.31
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.709 | AVG 0.249 | R/G 4.00
Bullpen ERA — Cincinnati Reds: 3.71 | Colorado Rockies: 4.19
Venue: Great American Ball Park — park factor 1.12 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Connor Burns (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Josh Staumont (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Alex Young (RP): OUT
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Carson Spiers (SP): OUT
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Willi Castro (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Cincinnati): 59°F | Wind 7 mph NW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Cincinnati Reds 4.50 | Colorado Rockies 5.77
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢41.9
Buy contracts27
Total cost (incl. commission)$11.86
Profit if win+$15.14
Loss if lose-$11.86
Expected value +$7.31
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
🕐 12:08 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 41.5% → Model 67.8% +26.4% edge ▾
Market
41.5%
Model
67.8%
Edge
+26.4%
Key Signals
Eric Lauer FIP 6.62 / xFIP 5.22 | K/9: 7.7
Brayan Bello FIP 8.34 / xFIP 4.55 | K/9: 6.1
Park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly: Rogers Centre)
Toronto Blue Jays injury impact (-1.8%)
Boston Red Sox injury impact (-1.6%)
⚠ Toronto Blue Jays schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Boston Red Sox schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.6 — Boston Red Sox 4.7
Research & Stats
🔵 Eric Lauer: ERA 6.75 | FIP 6.62 / xFIP 5.22 | K/9 7.7 | BB/9 4.9 | IP 22
🔴 Brayan Bello: ERA 9.0 | FIP 8.34 / xFIP 4.55 | K/9 6.1 | BB/9 5.3 | IP 22
Toronto Blue Jays offense: OPS 0.684 | AVG 0.248 | R/G 3.90
Boston Red Sox offense: OPS 0.660 | AVG 0.231 | R/G 4.07
Bullpen ERA — Toronto Blue Jays: 4.31 | Boston Red Sox: 4.20
Venue: Rogers Centre — park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — CJ Stubbs (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Geovanny Jesus Planchart (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Chay Yeager (RP): OUT
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Brendan Rodgers (2B): OUT
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Hobie Harris (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: James Jean (near-neutral tendencies)
Model expected runs: Toronto Blue Jays 4.62 | Boston Red Sox 4.66
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢41.5
Buy contracts24
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.43
Profit if win+$13.57
Loss if lose-$10.43
Expected value +$5.85
Under 218.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
🕐 4:40 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 52.4% → Model 78.7% +26.3% edge ▾
Market
52.4%
Model
78.7%
Edge
+26.3%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 104 — Toronto Raptors 104
Model expected total: 208.2 vs market line 218.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers OffRtg: 119.5 vs Toronto Raptors DefRtg: 111.8
Toronto Raptors OffRtg: 114.6 vs Cleveland Cavaliers DefRtg: 115.4
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.4
Buy contracts24
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.04
Profit if win+$10.96
Loss if lose-$13.04
Expected value +$5.83
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 47.3% · Edge: +21.1%
HIGH
Orlando Magic +9.5 (Spread)
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons · Model: 73.6% · Edge: +23.7%
Under 211.5 (Total)
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons · Model: 64.2% · Edge: +11.7%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.2
Buy contracts11
Total cost$3.10
Profit if win+$7.90
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 56.5% · Edge: +37.0%
HIGH
Houston Astros (Moneyline)
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles · Model: 79.6% · Edge: +32.9%
Colorado Rockies (Moneyline)
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds · Model: 71.0% · Edge: +29.1%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢19.6
Buy contracts25
Total cost$5.40
Profit if win+$19.60
Props Watchlist — model projections only. No sportsbook line available. Search Robinhood manually before betting.
Jalen Duren
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 10.5 · Bet Over ≤ 10 ▾
Projected
10.5
Bet Over ≤
10
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Jalen Duren rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 10.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 10.
Key Signals
Jalen Duren averages 10.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 98.0 | OPPG 100.5 | Win% 25%
Model projected team pts: 109.1 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Cade Cunningham
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Assists Over
HIGH
Proj 9.9 · Bet Over ≤ 9 ▾
Projected
9.9
Bet Over ≤
9
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Cade Cunningham assists' on Robinhood. Model line: 9.9 APG season avg. Look for Over at or below 9.
Key Signals
Cade Cunningham averages 9.9 assists/game this season
High-scoring expected game supports assist volume
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 98.0 | OPPG 100.5 | Win% 25%
Model projected team pts: 109.1 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Donovan Mitchell
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 29.3 · Bet Over ≤ 29 ▾
Projected
29.3
Bet Over ≤
29
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Donovan Mitchell points' on Robinhood. Model line: 29.3 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 29.
Key Signals
Donovan Mitchell season avg: 27.9 PPG
Toronto Raptors allows 111.8 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 111.8 (opp) | Net +4.1
Toronto Raptors: 46W-36L | Net +2.8
Cleveland Cavaliers recent (14d): PPG 108.5 | OPPG 109.2 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 112.8 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Cleveland Cavaliers: 2d | Toronto Raptors: 2d
Cade Cunningham
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 25.2 · Bet Over ≤ 25 ▾
Projected
25.2
Bet Over ≤
25
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Cade Cunningham points' on Robinhood. Model line: 25.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 25.
Key Signals
Cade Cunningham season avg: 23.9 PPG
Orlando Magic allows 115.1 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 98.0 | OPPG 100.5 | Win% 25%
Model projected team pts: 109.1 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Paolo Banchero
NBA  Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 22.2 · Bet Over ≤ 22 ▾
Projected
22.2
Bet Over ≤
22
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Paolo Banchero points' on Robinhood. Model line: 22.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 22.
Key Signals
Paolo Banchero season avg: 22.2 PPG
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG — average defense
🏆 Playoffs: tighter defense — verify line carefully
Research & Stats
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | PPG 115.7 | OPPG 109.6 (opp) | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic recent (14d): PPG 100.5 | OPPG 98.0 | Win% 75%
Model projected team pts: 107.8 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Orlando Magic: 1d | Detroit Pistons: 1d
Brandon Ingram
NBA  Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 21.5 · Bet Over ≤ 21 ▾
Projected
21.5
Bet Over ≤
21
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Brandon Ingram points' on Robinhood. Model line: 21.5 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 21.
Key Signals
Brandon Ingram season avg: 21.5 PPG
Cleveland Cavaliers allows 115.4 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: tighter defense — verify line carefully
Research & Stats
Toronto Raptors: 46W-36L | PPG 114.6 | OPPG 115.4 (opp) | Net +2.8
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | Net +4.1
Toronto Raptors recent (14d): PPG 109.2 | OPPG 108.5 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 112.7 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Toronto Raptors: 2d | Cleveland Cavaliers: 2d
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
MLB  Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Brayan Bello (FIP 8.34).
Key Signals
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: .340 AVG / .426 OBP this season (122 PA)
Brayan Bello FIP 8.34 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~6.1 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Brayan Bello: ERA 9.00 | FIP 8.34 | xFIP 4.55 | K/9 6.1 | BB/9 5.3 | HR/9 3.27
Season IP: 22 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Rogers Centre (park factor 1.05)
Opponent K%: 19.0% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 8.34 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~6.1 hits in 5.5 inn
Willson Contreras
MLB  Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Willson Contreras hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Eric Lauer (FIP 6.62).
Key Signals
Willson Contreras: .252 AVG / .371 OBP this season (124 PA)
Eric Lauer FIP 6.62 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~4.5 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Eric Lauer: ERA 6.75 | FIP 6.62 | xFIP 5.22 | K/9 7.7 | BB/9 4.9 | HR/9 2.43
Season IP: 22 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Rogers Centre (park factor 1.05)
Opponent K%: 22.4% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.62 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.5 hits in 5.5 inn
Wilyer Abreu
MLB  Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Wilyer Abreu hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Eric Lauer (FIP 6.62).
Key Signals
Wilyer Abreu: .297 AVG / .361 OBP this season (122 PA)
Eric Lauer FIP 6.62 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~4.5 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Eric Lauer: ERA 6.75 | FIP 6.62 | xFIP 5.22 | K/9 7.7 | BB/9 4.9 | HR/9 2.43
Season IP: 22 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Rogers Centre (park factor 1.05)
Opponent K%: 22.4% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.62 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.5 hits in 5.5 inn
Corbin Carroll
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Corbin Carroll hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Brandon Sproat (FIP 6.10).
Key Signals
Corbin Carroll: .278 AVG / .389 OBP this season (108 PA)
Brandon Sproat FIP 6.10 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~4.3 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Brandon Sproat: ERA 6.45 | FIP 6.10 | xFIP 4.39 | K/9 8.1 | BB/9 5.3 | HR/9 2.04
Season IP: 22 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Opponent K%: 21.2% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.10 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.3 hits in 5.5 inn
Geraldo Perdomo
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Geraldo Perdomo hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Brandon Sproat (FIP 6.10).
Key Signals
Geraldo Perdomo: .250 AVG / .350 OBP this season (102 PA)
Brandon Sproat FIP 6.10 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~4.3 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Brandon Sproat: ERA 6.45 | FIP 6.10 | xFIP 4.39 | K/9 8.1 | BB/9 5.3 | HR/9 2.04
Season IP: 22 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Opponent K%: 21.2% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.10 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.3 hits in 5.5 inn
Xander Bogaerts
MLB  San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Xander Bogaerts hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Jameson Taillon (FIP 6.03).
Key Signals
Xander Bogaerts: .286 AVG / .364 OBP this season (118 PA)
Jameson Taillon FIP 6.03 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.1 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Jameson Taillon: ERA 4.55 | FIP 6.03 | xFIP 4.36 | K/9 8.3 | BB/9 4.0 | HR/9 2.32
Season IP: 27 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Petco Park (park factor 0.93)
Opponent K%: 22.0% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.03 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.1 hits in 5.5 inn
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Houston Astros (Moneyline) ↑
MLB
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
3:36 PM PDT
+32.8%
—
 30
14.6%
$14.61
+$15.39
2
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
4:41 PM PDT
+29.4%
—
 27
11.8%
$11.79
+$15.21
3
Colorado Rockies (Moneyline) ↑
MLB
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
3:41 PM PDT
+29.1%
—
 27
11.9%
$11.86
+$15.14
4
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
12:08 PM PDT
+26.4%
—
 24
10.4%
$10.43
+$13.57
5
Under 218.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
4:40 PM PDT
+26.3%
—
 24
13.0%
$13.04
+$10.96
P1
Orlando Magic +9.5 (Spread) + Under 211.5 (Total) ↑
Parlay
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons / Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
+21.1%
—
 11
3.1%
$3.10
+$7.90
P2
Houston Astros (Moneyline) + Colorado Rockies (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles / Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
+37.0%
—
 25
5.4%
$5.40
+$19.60
Deployed $70.23 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $29.77
Props Model Accuracy — how often the model's projection exceeded the actual stat
Props Settled
34
Model Hit Rate
38.2%
Avg Error
-2.5
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 8 12.5% 27.9 21.0 -6.9
Rebounds 9 55.6% 11.7 10.4 -1.3
Assists 4 25.0% 9.7 9.0 -0.7
Strikeouts 11 36.4% 6.0 4.6 -1.4
Hits 2 100.0% 1.0 1.5 +0.5
HIGH confidence
57.1%
8H / 6M (14 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
25.0%
5H / 15M (20 settled)
Model Performance
Record
11W–13L
Win Rate
45.8%
Total PnL
$-20.71
ROI
-8.8%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
10W–12L (45.5%)
$-5.93
MEDIUM
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-14.78
NBA
4W–3L (57.1%)
$-2.01
MLB
4W–7L (36.4%)
$-50.70
PARLAY
3W–3L (50.0%)
$+32.00
⚠ Only 24 settled bet(s) — need 30+ for statistically meaningful calibration.
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (24 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $-20.71 total
$+15 $0 $-54 04-25 04-27 04-28
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-27 04-28
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 2 49.2% 0.0% -49.2%
15%+ 19 74.9% 42.1% -32.8%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.