Daily Betting Report

Saturday, May 16, 2026 · Generated May 16, 2026 at 11:31 AM PDT
NBA: 0 games  |  MLB: 15 games  |  NFL: 0 games  |  NHL: 1 game  |  IPL: 3 matches  |  WNBA: 0 games  |  MLS: 13 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 4,730 used · 15,270 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Friday, May 15 3W–4L $9.46
MLB Colorado Rockies +1.5 · +35.6% edge
❌ LOST
$19.73
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Final: Arizona Diamondbacks 9 @ Colorado Rockies 1. Model projected: Colorado Rockies 5.9, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.8. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ Kyle Freeland FIP 5.17 / xFIP 3.39 | K/9: 8.4
✦ Merrill Kelly FIP 6.74 / xFIP 5.34 | K/9: 6.9
NBA San Antonio Spurs -5.5 · +28.8% edge
✅ WON
+$12.30
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Final: San Antonio Spurs 139 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 109. Model win probability: 79.5%. Actual margin -30 (needed -5.5).
✦ Minnesota Timberwolves injury impact (-2.6%)
✦ San Antonio Spurs injuries benefit Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.9%)
MLB Detroit Tigers +1.5 · +23.3% edge
✅ WON
+$8.57
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Final: Toronto Blue Jays 2 @ Detroit Tigers 3. Model projected: Detroit Tigers 3.9, Toronto Blue Jays 3.7. Covered +1.5 — actual margin +1.0.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Trey Yesavage: ERA 0.68 vs xFIP 3.74 over 13 IP (severity 0.32) — Toronto Blue Jays ML may be overpriced by market
✦ 🌬️ Wind 11 mph blowing IN (SW) at Detroit — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
NBA Detroit Pistons +4.5 · +22.4% edge
✅ WON
+$9.56
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Final: Detroit Pistons 115 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 94. Model win probability: 72.6%. Actual margin -21 (needed +4.5).
✦ Detroit Pistons injuries benefit Cleveland Cavaliers (+1.3%)
NBA Over 210.5 · +21.7% edge
❌ LOST
$10.32
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Final: Detroit Pistons 115 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 94. Actual total 209 vs line 210.5 (under by 1.5). Model projected 218.9.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
PARLAY San Antonio Spurs (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML) · +32.7% edge
❌ LOST
$5.60
San Antonio Spurs (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
✅ San Antonio Spurs (San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves) · ❌ Colorado Rockies (Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies)
PARLAY Detroit Pistons +4.5 + Over 210.5 · +27.5% edge
❌ LOST
$4.24
Detroit Pistons +4.5 + Over 210.5
✅ Detroit Pistons +4.5 (Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers) · ❌ Over 210.5 (Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers)
🏀 NBA no games today
🏀 No NBA games scheduled today.
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↓
MLB Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
HIGH
Mkt 53.2% → Model 85.9% +32.7% edge ▾
Market
53.2%
Model
85.9%
Edge
+32.7%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge against Arizona Diamondbacks, driven by a significant ERA trap on Eduardo Rodriguez — 2.25 ERA vs 4.64 xFIP in 48 innings suggests regression risk the market hasn't fully priced. Arizona Diamondbacks is depleted (3.7% impact). Model projects Colorado Rockies by 0.4 runs (Colorado Rockies 5.7 — Arizona Diamondbacks 5.3).
Context & Stats
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Tomoyuki Sugano: ERA 4.07 vs xFIP 4.37 over 42 IP (severity 0.30) — Colorado Rockies ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Eduardo Rodriguez: ERA 2.25 vs xFIP 4.64 over 48 IP (severity 2.39) — Arizona Diamondbacks ML may be overpriced by market
🔵 Tomoyuki Sugano (Colorado Rockies): ERA 4.07 | FIP 5.7 / xFIP 4.37 | K/9 5.1 | BB/9 2.6 | IP 42
🔴 Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): ERA 2.25 | FIP 4.28 / xFIP 4.64 | K/9 6.2 | BB/9 4.1 | IP 48
Model projected score: Colorado Rockies 5.7 — Arizona Diamondbacks 5.3
Venue: Coors Field — park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly)
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-1.3%)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-3.7%)
🌧️ 69% precipitation chance at Denver (rain possible) — monitor for delays/postponement
Colorado Rockies offense: 17W-28L | OPS 0.708 | AVG 0.245 | R/G 4.20
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: 21W-22L | OPS 0.690 | AVG 0.237 | R/G 4.37
Bullpen ERA — Colorado Rockies: 4.63 (WHIP 1.39) | Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.48 (WHIP 1.18)
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Denver): 63°F | Wind 6 mph N (blowing in) | Precip 69%
Under 10.5 ↓
MLB Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
HIGH
Mkt 52.3% → Model 74.5% +22.2% edge ▾
Market
52.3%
Model
74.5%
Edge
+22.2%
Why this pick ▾
The model projects 8.2 combined runs vs the market line of 10.0, a 1.8-run lean toward the under. Projected: Washington Nationals 4.0 — Baltimore Orioles 3.8.
Context & Stats
🔵 Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): ERA 4.02 | FIP 2.68 / xFIP 3.49 | K/9 9.9 | BB/9 4.0 | IP 40
🔴 Chris Bassitt (Baltimore Orioles): ERA 5.21 | FIP 4.28 / xFIP 4.66 | K/9 6.2 | BB/9 4.3 | IP 38
Model projected score: Washington Nationals 4.0 — Baltimore Orioles 3.8
Model expected total: 8.2 vs line 10.0
Venue: Nationals Park — park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly)
⚠ Washington Nationals schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Washington Nationals injury impact (-5.2%)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-1.5%)
Washington Nationals offense: 22W-23L | OPS 0.729 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 5.31
Baltimore Orioles offense: 20W-25L | OPS 0.690 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 4.33
Bullpen ERA — Washington Nationals: 4.90 (WHIP 1.41) | Baltimore Orioles: 3.65 (WHIP 1.27)
⚕ Washington Nationals — Tyler Baum (DH): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Washington Nationals — Tyler Stuart (SP): OUT
⚕ Washington Nationals — Travis Sykora (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Washington Nationals — Jarlin Susana (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Washington): 70°F | Wind 9 mph SW (blowing in) | Precip 0%
New York Yankees ↓
MLB  ML  ·  New York Yankees @ New York Mets
HIGH
Mkt 53.3% → Model 75.4% +22.1% edge ▾
Market
53.3%
Model
75.4%
Edge
+22.1%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge against New York Mets, driven by a significant ERA trap on Huascar Brazobán — 2.14 ERA vs 4.12 xFIP in 21 innings suggests regression risk the market hasn't fully priced. New York Mets is depleted (6.0% impact). Model projects New York Yankees by 1.5 runs (New York Mets 3.1 — New York Yankees 4.6).
Context & Stats
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Huascar Brazobán: ERA 2.14 vs xFIP 4.12 over 21 IP (severity 1.09) — New York Mets ML may be overpriced by market
🔵 Huascar Brazobán (New York Mets): ERA 2.14 | FIP 3.44 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9 6.9 | BB/9 3.4 | IP 21
🔴 Carlos Rodón (New York Yankees): ERA 6.23 | FIP 4.91 / xFIP 5.54 | K/9 8.8 | BB/9 11.0 | IP 4
Model projected score: New York Mets 3.1 — New York Yankees 4.6
Venue: Citi Field — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
⚠ New York Mets schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Yankees schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
New York Mets injury impact (-6.0%)
New York Mets offense: 18W-26L | OPS 0.638 | AVG 0.225 | R/G 3.70
New York Yankees offense: 28W-17L | OPS 0.763 | AVG 0.236 | R/G 5.07
Bullpen ERA — New York Mets: 4.15 (WHIP 1.44) | New York Yankees: 3.28 (WHIP 1.25)
⚕ New York Mets — Clay Holmes (SP): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Grae Kessinger (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Mike Tauchman (RF): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Joe Jacques (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Kevin Herget (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Nick Burdi (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Jose Rojas (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Robert Stock (RP): OUT
⚕ New York Yankees — Travis MacGregor (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (New York): 69°F | Wind 11 mph SW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Washington Nationals +1.5 ↓
MLB Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
HIGH
Mkt 60.5% → Model 82.6% +22.1% edge ▾
Market
60.5%
Model
82.6%
Edge
+22.1%
Why this pick ▾
A strong pitching mismatch drives this pick — Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals) (3.49 xFIP) holds a meaningful advantage over Chris Bassitt (Baltimore Orioles) (4.66 xFIP). Injury drag further tilts the matchup: Washington Nationals (5.2%). Model projects Washington Nationals by 0.2 runs (Washington Nationals 4.0 — Baltimore Orioles 3.8).
Context & Stats
🔵 Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): ERA 4.02 | FIP 2.68 / xFIP 3.49 | K/9 9.9 | BB/9 4.0 | IP 40
🔴 Chris Bassitt (Baltimore Orioles): ERA 5.21 | FIP 4.28 / xFIP 4.66 | K/9 6.2 | BB/9 4.3 | IP 38
Model projected score: Washington Nationals 4.0 — Baltimore Orioles 3.8
Venue: Nationals Park — park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly)
⚠ Washington Nationals schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Washington Nationals injury impact (-5.2%)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-1.5%)
Washington Nationals offense: 22W-23L | OPS 0.729 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 5.31
Baltimore Orioles offense: 20W-25L | OPS 0.690 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 4.33
Bullpen ERA — Washington Nationals: 4.90 (WHIP 1.41) | Baltimore Orioles: 3.65 (WHIP 1.27)
⚕ Washington Nationals — Tyler Baum (DH): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Washington Nationals — Tyler Stuart (SP): OUT
⚕ Washington Nationals — Travis Sykora (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Washington Nationals — Jarlin Susana (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Washington): 70°F | Wind 9 mph SW (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Detroit Tigers +1.5 ↓
MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
HIGH
Mkt 63.4% → Model 85.1% +21.7% edge ▾
Market
63.4%
Model
85.1%
Edge
+21.7%
Why this pick ▾
The model builds a strong edge from a combination of pitching quality, roster health, and situational factors. Model projects Detroit Tigers by 0.4 runs (Detroit Tigers 3.8 — Toronto Blue Jays 3.4).
Context & Stats
🔵 Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers): ERA 2.9 | FIP 2.85 / xFIP 3.31 | K/9 10.2 | BB/9 3.2 | IP 31
🔴 Mason Fluharty (Toronto Blue Jays): ERA 5.4 | FIP 2.93 / xFIP 3.37 | K/9 11.4 | BB/9 4.2 | IP 15
Model projected score: Detroit Tigers 3.8 — Toronto Blue Jays 3.4
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Dan Merzel (near-neutral tendencies)
Venue: Comerica Park — park factor 0.95 (pitcher-friendly)
⚠ Detroit Tigers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Toronto Blue Jays schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
🌧️ 88% precipitation chance at Detroit (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
Detroit Tigers offense: 20W-25L | OPS 0.712 | AVG 0.242 | R/G 4.13
Toronto Blue Jays offense: 19W-25L | OPS 0.683 | AVG 0.245 | R/G 4.14
Bullpen ERA — Detroit Tigers: 4.24 (WHIP 1.41) | Toronto Blue Jays: 4.11 (WHIP 1.44)
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Ty Madden (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Tigers — Dugan Darnell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Geovanny Jesus Planchart (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Chay Yeager (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — CJ Stubbs (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Toronto Blue Jays — Javen Coleman (P): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Detroit): 63°F | Wind 14 mph SW (blowing in) | Precip 88%
Props
▾
Mickey Moniak
MLB  Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 50.5% · Model 3.3 · +38.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
50.5%
Model Proj
3.3
Edge
+38.3%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 50.5%. Model: 3.30.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Mickey Moniak at 3.30 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +1.80 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 50.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.30 → edge +38.3%
Mickey Moniak: AVG 0.306 | OBP 0.352 | H/G 1.11 | TB/G 2.43 | HR/G 0.324 | HRR/G 2.38 | K% 25.5% (145 PA)
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez: FIP 4.28 / xFIP 4.64 | WHIP 1.21 | K/9 6.2
Park factor 1.30 at Coors Field
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 52.4% · Model 3.06 · +34.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
52.4%
Model Proj
3.06
Edge
+34.5%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 52.4%. Model: 3.06.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Ildemaro Vargas at 3.06 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +1.56 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 52.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.06 → edge +34.5%
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.347 | OBP 0.369 | H/G 1.39 | TB/G 2.31 | HR/G 0.194 | HRR/G 2.89 | K% 10.6% (151 PA)
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano: FIP 5.70 / xFIP 4.37 | WHIP 1.19 | K/9 5.1
Park factor 1.30 at Coors Field
Matt Olson
MLB  Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 42.6% · Model 2.22 · +32.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
42.6%
Model Proj
2.22
Edge
+32.4%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 42.6%. Model: 2.22.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Matt Olson at 2.22 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +0.72 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 42.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.22 → edge +32.4%
Game total: model 8.0 vs market 7.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.07x)
Matt Olson: AVG 0.287 | OBP 0.364 | H/G 1.11 | TB/G 2.38 | HR/G 0.311 | HRR/G 2.73 | K% 25.3% (198 PA)
Facing Payton Tolle: FIP 2.75 / xFIP 3.04 | WHIP 0.86 | K/9 10.9
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
Troy Johnston
MLB  Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 39.7% · Model 2.0 · +29.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
39.7%
Model Proj
2.0
Edge
+29.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 39.7%. Model: 2.00.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Troy Johnston at 2.00 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +0.50 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 39.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.00 → edge +29.9%
Troy Johnston: AVG 0.318 | OBP 0.379 | H/G 1.02 | TB/G 1.46 | HR/G 0.049 | HRR/G 1.85 | K% 21.2% (146 PA)
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez: FIP 4.28 / xFIP 4.64 | WHIP 1.21 | K/9 6.2
Park factor 1.30 at Coors Field
Hunter Goodman
MLB  Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 52.4% · Model 2.59 · +28.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
52.4%
Model Proj
2.59
Edge
+28.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 52.4%. Model: 2.59.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Hunter Goodman at 2.59 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +1.09 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 52.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.59 → edge +28.9%
Hunter Goodman: AVG 0.247 | OBP 0.310 | H/G 0.95 | TB/G 1.98 | HR/G 0.275 | HRR/G 2.08 | K% 35.1% (168 PA)
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez: FIP 4.28 / xFIP 4.64 | WHIP 1.21 | K/9 6.2
Park factor 1.30 at Coors Field
Brandon Lowe
MLB  Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 0.5 64.5% · Model 1.66 · +28.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 0.5
Book Odds
64.5%
Model Proj
1.66
Edge
+28.5%
Draftkings: Over 0.5 at 64.5%. Model: 1.66.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Brandon Lowe at 1.66 HRR vs the line of 0.5 — a strong +1.16 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 0.5 at 64.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 1.66 → edge +28.5%
Game total: model 7.8 vs market 8.5 (low-scoring environment, scale 0.92x)
Brandon Lowe: AVG 0.252 | OBP 0.352 | H/G 0.97 | TB/G 2.18 | HR/G 0.308 | HRR/G 2.44 | K% 22.2% (176 PA)
Facing Cristopher Sánchez: FIP 2.24 / xFIP 2.31 | WHIP 1.29 | K/9 10.9
Park factor 0.96 at PNC Park
🏈 NFL no games today
🏈 No NFL games scheduled today.
Singles
▾
🏒 NHL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Montreal Canadiens
NHL  ML  ·  Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens
HIGH
Mkt 60.7% → Model 86.6% +25.9% edge ▾
Market
60.7%
Model
86.6%
Edge
+25.9%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge driven by season net rating and recent form differential.
Context & Stats
Buffalo Sabres injuries benefit Montreal Canadiens (+2.0%)
Montreal Canadiens: 48W-24L-10OTL | 3.45 GPG | 3.12 GAPG | NetRtg 0.33
Buffalo Sabres: 50W-23L-9OTL | 3.51 GPG | 2.94 GAPG | NetRtg 0.57
Montreal Canadiens last 14 days: NetRtg 1.50 | Win% 67%
Buffalo Sabres last 14 days: NetRtg -1.60 | Win% 40%
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Rest days — Montreal Canadiens: 2 | Buffalo Sabres: 2
Home ice advantage: Montreal Canadiens (+2%)
⚕ Buffalo Sabres — Noah Ostlund (C): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Under 6.5
NHL Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens
MEDIUM
Mkt 52.5% → Model 61.0% +8.5% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
61.0%
Edge
+8.5%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a solid edge driven by season net rating and recent form differential.
Context & Stats
Montreal Canadiens GPG (blended): 3.66 vs Buffalo Sabres GAPG (blended): 3.63
Buffalo Sabres GPG (blended): 3.01 vs Montreal Canadiens GAPG (blended): 2.69
Model projected score: Montreal Canadiens 3.4 — Buffalo Sabres 2.6
Model expected total: 6.1 vs market line 6.5
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
🏀 WNBA no games today
📅 No WNBA games scheduled today.
Singles
▾
⚽ MLS 5 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Under 3.5
⚽ MLS  Total  ·  New York City FC @ New York Red Bulls
HIGH
Mkt 54.0% → Model 91.6% +37.6% edge ▾
Market
54.0%
Model
91.6%
Edge
+37.6%
Why this pick ▾
Model projects 1.64 total goals (0.84 + 0.80), below the line of 3 — a strong edge.
Context & Stats
xG projection: 0.84 – 0.80 goals
xG projection: New York Red Bulls 0.84 – New York City FC 0.80
xG edge: New York City FC (-0.51 xGD advantage)
Home venue: New York Red Bulls (data-driven advantage)
New York Red Bulls: 5W-5L | 0.00 xGF/g | 2.12 xGA/g | -2.12 xGD/g
New York City FC: 5W-5L | 0.00 xGF/g | 1.45 xGA/g | -1.45 xGD/g
Recent (8g) — New York Red Bulls: 1.56 xGF | 2.26 xGA
Recent (8g) — New York City FC: 1.24 xGF | 1.65 xGA
New York Red Bulls struggling recently: -0.70 xGD last 8 games
New York City FC struggling recently: -0.42 xGD last 8 games
Win probs: H 33.8% | D 34.9% | A 31.3%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until MLS testing is complete.
Under 3.5
⚽ MLS  Total  ·  FC Dallas @ San Jose Earthquakes
HIGH
Mkt 54.0% → Model 91.5% +37.5% edge ▾
Market
54.0%
Model
91.5%
Edge
+37.5%
Why this pick ▾
Model projects 1.64 total goals (0.93 + 0.71), below the line of 3 — a strong edge.
Context & Stats
xG projection: 0.93 – 0.71 goals
xG projection: San Jose Earthquakes 0.93 – FC Dallas 0.71
San Jose Earthquakes recent form: +0.65 xGD last 8 games
FC Dallas recent form: +0.56 xGD last 8 games
Home venue: San Jose Earthquakes (+2%)
San Jose Earthquakes: 9W-2L | 0.00 xGF/g | 1.39 xGA/g | -1.39 xGD/g
FC Dallas: 5W-4L | 0.00 xGF/g | 1.16 xGA/g | -1.16 xGD/g
Recent (8g) — San Jose Earthquakes: 2.31 xGF | 1.67 xGA
Recent (8g) — FC Dallas: 1.60 xGF | 1.05 xGA
Win probs: H 39.0% | D 34.4% | A 26.6%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until MLS testing is complete.
Under 3.5
⚽ MLS  Total  ·  Atlanta United FC @ Orlando City SC
HIGH
Mkt 56.0% → Model 90.7% +34.8% edge ▾
Market
56.0%
Model
90.7%
Edge
+34.8%
Why this pick ▾
Model projects 1.70 total goals (0.80 + 0.90), below the line of 3 — a strong edge.
Context & Stats
xG projection: 0.80 – 0.90 goals
xG projection: Orlando City SC 0.80 – Atlanta United FC 0.90
xG edge: Atlanta United FC (-0.66 xGD advantage)
Home venue: Orlando City SC (+2%)
Orlando City SC: 4W-8L | 0.00 xGF/g | 2.25 xGA/g | -2.25 xGD/g
Atlanta United FC: 3W-8L | 0.00 xGF/g | 1.57 xGA/g | -1.57 xGD/g
Recent (8g) — Orlando City SC: 1.49 xGF | 2.11 xGA
Recent (8g) — Atlanta United FC: 1.38 xGF | 1.37 xGA
Orlando City SC struggling recently: -0.63 xGD last 8 games
Win probs: H 30.3% | D 34.0% | A 35.7%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until MLS testing is complete.
Under 3.5
⚽ MLS  Total  ·  Colorado Rapids @ Real Salt Lake
HIGH
Mkt 54.2% → Model 88.7% +34.5% edge ▾
Market
54.2%
Model
88.7%
Edge
+34.5%
Why this pick ▾
Model projects 1.82 total goals (1.26 + 0.56), below the line of 3 — a strong edge.
Context & Stats
xG projection: 1.26 – 0.56 goals
xG projection: Real Salt Lake 1.26 – Colorado Rapids 0.56
Home venue: Real Salt Lake (data-driven advantage)
Real Salt Lake: 7W-4L | 0.00 xGF/g | 1.64 xGA/g | -1.64 xGD/g
Colorado Rapids: 5W-7L | 0.00 xGF/g | 1.46 xGA/g | -1.46 xGD/g
Recent (8g) — Real Salt Lake: 2.00 xGF | 1.73 xGA
Recent (8g) — Colorado Rapids: 1.14 xGF | 1.63 xGA
Colorado Rapids struggling recently: -0.49 xGD last 8 games
Win probs: H 53.6% | D 29.8% | A 16.6%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until MLS testing is complete.
Under 2.5
⚽ MLS  Total  ·  Vancouver Whitecaps FC @ Houston Dynamo
HIGH
Mkt 50.8% → Model 84.6% +33.8% edge ▾
Market
50.8%
Model
84.6%
Edge
+33.8%
Why this pick ▾
Model projects 1.35 total goals (0.41 + 0.94), below the line of 2 — a strong edge.
Context & Stats
xG projection: 0.41 – 0.94 goals
xG projection: Houston Dynamo 0.41 – Vancouver Whitecaps FC 0.94
xG edge: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-0.78 xGD advantage)
Vancouver Whitecaps FC recent form: +1.45 xGD last 8 games
Home venue: Houston Dynamo (+2%)
Houston Dynamo: 6W-6L | 0.00 xGF/g | 1.32 xGA/g | -1.32 xGD/g
Vancouver Whitecaps FC: 9W-1L | 0.00 xGF/g | 0.97 xGA/g | -0.97 xGD/g
Recent (8g) — Houston Dynamo: 1.08 xGF | 1.08 xGA
Recent (8g) — Vancouver Whitecaps FC: 2.59 xGF | 1.14 xGA
Win probs: H 15.6% | D 36.9% | A 47.4%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until MLS testing is complete.
🏏 IPL 3 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Royal Challengers Bengaluru @ Punjab Kings
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HIGH
Mkt 55.9% → Model 80.1% +24.2% edge ▾
Market
55.9%
Model
80.1%
Edge
+24.2%
Why this pick ▾
Royal Challengers Bengaluru's 71% blended win-rate edge overcomes Punjab Kings's home venue advantage, giving the model a strong edge.
Context & Stats
Form edge: Royal Challengers Bengaluru (blended win-rate gap 71%)
Home venue advantage: Punjab Kings (+2.5%)
Rest days — Punjab Kings: 45 | Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 48
Hot/cold streak: Royal Challengers Bengaluru hot (0% last 7d) vs Punjab Kings cold (100%)
Punjab Kings: 6W-5L (11 matches) | Win% 55% | Recent Win% 0% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin +1
Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 8W-3L (11 matches) | Win% 73% | Recent Win% 100% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin +6
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Gujarat Titans
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Gujarat Titans @ Kolkata Knight Riders
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🔒 Locked HIGH
Mkt 55.0% → Model 65.7% +10.7% edge ▾
Market
55.0%
Model
65.7%
Edge
+10.7%
Why this pick ▾
Gujarat Titans's 44% blended win-rate edge overcomes Kolkata Knight Riders's home venue advantage, giving the model a solid edge.
Context & Stats
Home venue advantage: Kolkata Knight Riders (+2.5%)
Short rest: Kolkata Knight Riders (1d since last match, -1.5%)
Form edge: Gujarat Titans (blended win-rate gap 44%)
Hot/cold streak: Gujarat Titans hot (50% last 7d) vs Kolkata Knight Riders cold (100%)
Rest days — Kolkata Knight Riders: 1 | Gujarat Titans: 44
Kolkata Knight Riders: 3W-6L (9 matches) | Win% 33% | Recent Win% 50% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin -10
Gujarat Titans: 8W-4L (12 matches) | Win% 67% | Recent Win% 100% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin +5
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Delhi Capitals
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Rajasthan Royals @ Delhi Capitals
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MEDIUM
Mkt 45.8% → Model 48.8% +3.0% edge ▾
Market
45.8%
Model
48.8%
Edge
+3.0%
Why this pick ▾
Delhi Capitals holds home venue advantage, which the model rates at a slight 3.0% edge over market odds.
Context & Stats
Home venue advantage: Delhi Capitals (+2.5%)
Rest days — Delhi Capitals: 44 | Rajasthan Royals: 46
Delhi Capitals: 5W-7L (12 matches) | Win% 42% | Recent Win% 50% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin -6
Rajasthan Royals: 6W-5L (11 matches) | Win% 55% | Recent Win% 0% (last 1 games) | Avg run margin -6
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Today's Card top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↑
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
+32.7%
—
 31
17.1%
$17.11
+$13.89
Robinhood Action — Colorado Rockies +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢53.2
Buy contracts31
Total cost (incl. commission)$17.11
Profit if win+$13.89
Loss if lose-$17.11
Expected value +$9.52
2
Under 10.5 ↑
MLB
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
+22.2%
—
 20
10.9%
$10.86
+$9.14
Robinhood Action — Under 10.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.3
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.86
Profit if win+$9.14
Loss if lose-$10.86
Expected value +$4.04
3
New York Yankees (ML) ↑
MLB
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
+22.1%
—
 20
11.1%
$11.05
+$8.95
Robinhood Action — New York Yankees (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢53.3
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$11.05
Profit if win+$8.95
Loss if lose-$11.05
Expected value +$4.03
4
Washington Nationals +1.5 ↑
MLB
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
+22.1%
—
 21
13.1%
$13.13
+$7.87
Robinhood Action — Washington Nationals +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢60.5
Buy contracts21
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.13
Profit if win+$7.87
Loss if lose-$13.13
Expected value +$4.21
5
Detroit Tigers +1.5 ↑
MLB
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
+21.7%
—
 21
13.7%
$13.73
+$7.27
Robinhood Action — Detroit Tigers +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢63.4
Buy contracts21
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.73
Profit if win+$7.27
Loss if lose-$13.73
Expected value +$4.14
P1
Washington Nationals +1.5 + Under 10.5
Parlay
+29.9%
—
 15
5.0%
$5.05
+$9.95
Robinhood Action — Washington Nationals +1.5 + Under 10.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢31.6
Buy contracts15
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.05
Profit if win+$9.95
P2
Colorado Rockies (ML) + New York Yankees (ML)
Parlay
+21.7%
—
 13
3.3%
$3.27
+$9.73
Robinhood Action — Colorado Rockies (ML) + New York Yankees (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢23.2
Buy contracts13
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.27
Profit if win+$9.73
Deployed $74.20 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $25.80
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
226
Model Hit Rate
46.5%
Avg Error
-1.9
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 52 44.2% 21.0 17.7 -3.3
Rebounds 40 45.0% 8.9 7.3 -1.6
Assists 15 40.0% 7.4 5.7 -1.7
Strikeouts 24 45.8% 6.2 4.8 -1.5
Hits 26 69.2% 1.1 1.2 +0.2
HRR 42 45.2% 3.6 1.3 -2.3
Total Bases 17 35.3% 3.3 1.9 -1.4
Steals 3 33.3% 2.7 1.3 -1.3
Blocks 7 42.9% 2.5 1.3 -1.2
HIGH confidence
46.6%
82H / 94M (176 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
46.0%
23H / 27M (50 settled)
By League
NBA
43.6%
51H / 66M (117 settled)
Avg err: -2.3
MLB
49.5%
54H / 55M (109 settled)
Avg err: -1.4
▶ Hit Rate Trend (226 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-06 05-15
Model Performance
Record
75W–66L
Win Rate
53.2%
Total PnL
$+110.38
ROI
9.3%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
73W–65L (52.9%)
$+117.97
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
🏀 NBA
23W–17L (57.5%)
$+63.36
⚾ MLB
37W–25L (59.7%)
$-0.44
PARLAYS
15W–24L (38.5%)
$+47.46
Watchlist Tracking  — no budget allocated, W-L only
🏒 NHL
7W–3L (70.0%)
10 picks tracked
🏏 IPL
3W–2L (60.0%)
5 picks tracked
🏀 WNBA
2W–4L (33.3%)
6 picks tracked
⚽ MLS
0W–0L
No picks settled yet
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (142 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+110.38 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-05 05-15
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-05 05-15
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 24 60.5% 60.9% +0.4%
15%+ 115 69.0% 50.4% -18.6%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.