Daily Betting Report

Monday, May 11, 2026 · Generated May 11, 2026 at 02:57 PM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 6 games  |  NHL: 1 game  |  IPL: 2 matches  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 2,938 used · 17,062 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Sunday, May 10 2W–5L $26.55
NBA New York Knicks ML · +37.5% edge
✅ WON
+$15.94
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Final: New York Knicks 144 @ Philadelphia 76ers 114. Model win probability: 90.0%.
✦ Philadelphia 76ers injury impact (-0.6%)
✦ New York Knicks injuries benefit Philadelphia 76ers (+0.7%)
NBA San Antonio Spurs -5.5 · +27.5% edge
❌ LOST
$14.07
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Final: San Antonio Spurs 109 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 114. Model win probability: 77.6%. Actual margin +5 (needed -5.5).
✦ Minnesota Timberwolves injury impact (-2.2%)
✦ San Antonio Spurs injuries benefit Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.9%)
NBA Under 217.5 · +21.1% edge
❌ LOST
$10.36
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Final: San Antonio Spurs 109 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 114. Actual total 223 vs line 217.5 (over by 5.5). Model projected 209.4.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
NBA Under 214.5 · +19.9% edge
❌ LOST
$9.22
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Final: New York Knicks 144 @ Philadelphia 76ers 114. Actual total 258 vs line 214.5 (over by 43.5). Model projected 206.9.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Under 10.5 · +14.6% edge
✅ WON
+$5.53
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
Final: Athletics 1 @ Baltimore Orioles 2. Model projected: Baltimore Orioles 4.3, Athletics 4.3. Actual total 3 vs line 10.5 (under by 7.5). Model projected 8.6.
✦ Keegan Akin FIP 6.28 / xFIP 3.03 | K/9: 8.7
✦ Luis Severino FIP 4.45 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9: 9.0
PARLAY New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML) · +46.7% edge
❌ LOST
$8.45
New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
✅ New York Knicks (New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers) · ❌ San Antonio Spurs (San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves)
PARLAY New York Knicks -1.5 + Under 214.5 · +37.0% edge
❌ LOST
$5.92
New York Knicks -1.5 + Under 214.5
✅ New York Knicks -1.5 (New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers) · ❌ Under 214.5 (New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers)
🏀 NBA 3 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Detroit Pistons +3.5 ↓
NBA Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
HIGH
Mkt 49.9% → Model 73.4% +23.5% edge ▾
Market
49.9%
Model
73.4%
Edge
+23.5%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Cleveland Cavaliers (+2%)
Rating edge: Detroit Pistons (blended NetRtg diff -5.6)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Cleveland Cavaliers injury impact (-0.6%)
Detroit Pistons injuries benefit Cleveland Cavaliers (+3.0%)
Model projected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 103 — Detroit Pistons 105
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: OffRtg 119.5 | DefRtg 115.4 | NetRtg 4.1
Detroit Pistons: OffRtg 117.8 | DefRtg 109.6 | NetRtg 8.2
Cleveland Cavaliers last 14 days: NetRtg 0.3 | Win% 50%
Detroit Pistons last 14 days: NetRtg 7.1 | Win% 71%
Rest days — Cleveland Cavaliers: 1 | Detroit Pistons: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Cleveland Cavaliers — Thomas Bryant (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Kevin Huerter (G): OUT
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Caris LeVert (G): DAY-TO-DAY
Over 213.5 ↓
NBA Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
HIGH
Mkt 52.0% → Model 64.8% +12.8% edge ▾
Market
52.0%
Model
64.8%
Edge
+12.8%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 110 — Detroit Pistons 110
Model expected total: 218.4 vs market line 213.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers off (blended): 119.5 vs Detroit Pistons def (blended): 109.6
Detroit Pistons off (blended): 117.8 vs Cleveland Cavaliers def (blended): 115.4
Recent form weight: 55% | Season weight: 45%
⚕ Detroit Pistons injury drag: −2.2 pts from totals projection
Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5 ↓
NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
HIGH
Mkt 50.0% → Model 58.5% +8.6% edge ▾
Market
50.0%
Model
58.5%
Edge
+8.6%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Los Angeles Lakers (+2%)
Rating edge: Oklahoma City Thunder (blended NetRtg diff -18.5)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Los Angeles Lakers injury impact (-2.2%)
Oklahoma City Thunder injuries benefit Los Angeles Lakers (+4.0%)
Model projected score: Los Angeles Lakers 101 — Oklahoma City Thunder 105
Research & Stats
Los Angeles Lakers: OffRtg 116.3 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 1.8
Oklahoma City Thunder: OffRtg 119.0 | DefRtg 107.9 | NetRtg 11.1
Los Angeles Lakers last 14 days: NetRtg -9.0 | Win% 20%
Oklahoma City Thunder last 14 days: NetRtg 17.0 | Win% 100%
Rest days — Los Angeles Lakers: 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Los Angeles Lakers — Luka Doncic (G): OUT
⚕ Oklahoma City Thunder — Jalen Williams (G): OUT
⚕ Oklahoma City Thunder — Thomas Sorber (C): OUT
Props
▾
Sam Merrill
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
HIGH
Over 5.5 51.7% · Model 10.9 · +41.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 5.5
Book Odds
51.7%
Model Proj
10.9
Edge
+41.1%
Draftkings: Over 5.5 at 51.7%. Model projects 10.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 5.5 at 51.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 10.9 → edge +41.1%
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG (below avg)
Game total: model 218.4 vs market 213.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.02x)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Sam Merrill: 12.8 PPG / 2.6 RPG / 2.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jaylon Tyson
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
HIGH
Over 5.5 55.2% · Model 11.3 · +40.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 5.5
Book Odds
55.2%
Model Proj
11.3
Edge
+40.2%
Draftkings: Over 5.5 at 55.2%. Model projects 11.3.
Key Signals
Market: Over 5.5 at 55.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.3 → edge +40.2%
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG (below avg)
Game total: model 218.4 vs market 213.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.02x)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jaylon Tyson: 13.2 PPG / 5.1 RPG / 2.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jaylon Tyson
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 2.5 60.6% · Model 4.9 · +30.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 2.5
Book Odds
60.6%
Model Proj
4.9
Edge
+30.2%
Draftkings: Over 2.5 at 60.6%. Model projects 4.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 2.5 at 60.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.9 → edge +30.2%
Avg game pace: 118.6 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
Game total: model 218.4 vs market 213.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.02x)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jaylon Tyson: 13.2 PPG / 5.1 RPG / 2.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jaylin Williams
NBA  Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 49.5% · Model 5.1 · +29.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
49.5%
Model Proj
5.1
Edge
+29.8%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 49.5%. Model projects 5.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 49.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.1 → edge +29.8%
Avg game pace: 117.7 combined PPG (above avg → more board opportunities)
Research & Stats
Oklahoma City Thunder: Net RTG +11.1 | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 107.9
Los Angeles Lakers: Net RTG +1.8 | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 114.6
Jaylin Williams: 7.2 PPG / 5.5 RPG / 2.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Dennis Schroder
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Assists Over
HIGH
Over 2.5 61.7% · Model 4.6 · +26.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 2.5
Book Odds
61.7%
Model Proj
4.6
Edge
+26.8%
Draftkings: Over 2.5 at 61.7%. Model projects 4.6.
Key Signals
Market: Over 2.5 at 61.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.6 → edge +26.8%
Detroit Pistons scores 117.8 PPG (above avg → more assist opportunities)
Game total: model 218.4 vs market 213.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.02x)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Dennis Schroder: 10.8 PPG / 2.7 RPG / 4.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Marcus Smart
NBA  Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Steals Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 49.0% · Model 2.54 · +26.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.0%
Model Proj
2.54
Edge
+26.5%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.0%. Model projects 2.54.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.54 → edge +26.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder scores 119.0 PPG (above avg → more steal opportunities)
Research & Stats
Los Angeles Lakers: Net RTG +1.8 | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 114.6
Oklahoma City Thunder: Net RTG +11.1 | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 107.9
Marcus Smart: 9.3 PPG / 2.8 RPG / 3.0 APG / 2.44 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 ↓
MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians
HIGH
Mkt 58.0% → Model 74.4% +16.4% edge ▾
Market
58.0%
Model
74.4%
Edge
+16.4%
Key Signals
Joey Cantillo FIP 4.43 / xFIP 4.10 | K/9: 8.5
Brent Suter FIP 4.33 / xFIP 3.45 | K/9: 9.0
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Joey Cantillo: ERA 3.43 vs xFIP 4.10 over 39 IP (severity 0.34) — Cleveland Guardians ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.96 (pitcher-friendly: Progressive Field)
🌡️ Cool (53°F) at Cleveland — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Cleveland Guardians schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Los Angeles Angels schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Cleveland Guardians 3.5 — Los Angeles Angels 3.9
Research & Stats
🔵 Joey Cantillo: ERA 3.43 | FIP 4.43 / xFIP 4.10 | K/9 8.5 | BB/9 4.4 | IP 39
🔴 Brent Suter: ERA 4.03 | FIP 4.33 / xFIP 3.45 | K/9 9.0 | BB/9 4.1 | IP 22
Cleveland Guardians offense: OPS 0.689 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 4.12
Los Angeles Angels offense: OPS 0.710 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.32
Bullpen ERA — Cleveland Guardians: 4.20 | Los Angeles Angels: 4.20
Venue: Progressive Field — park factor 0.96 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Cleveland Guardians — Carlos Hernandez (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Jonathan Parra (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Cleveland): 53°F | Wind 8 mph N (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Cleveland Guardians 3.47 | Los Angeles Angels 3.91
San Francisco Giants +1.5 ↓
MLB San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
HIGH
Mkt 54.3% → Model 64.4% +10.2% edge ▾
Market
54.3%
Model
64.4%
Edge
+10.2%
Key Signals
Roki Sasaki FIP 6.64 / xFIP 4.43 | K/9: 8.3
Trevor McDonald FIP 2.77 / xFIP 1.47 | K/9: 10.3
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ San Francisco Giants schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.2 — San Francisco Giants 3.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Roki Sasaki: ERA 5.97 | FIP 6.64 / xFIP 4.43 | K/9 8.3 | BB/9 4.8 | IP 28
🔴 Trevor McDonald: ERA 1.29 | FIP 2.77 / xFIP 1.47 | K/9 10.3 | BB/9 0.0 | IP 7
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.778 | AVG 0.265 | R/G 5.08
San Francisco Giants offense: OPS 0.649 | AVG 0.242 | R/G 3.25
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Dodgers: 4.20 | San Francisco Giants: 4.20
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
No significant injuries reported
🌤 Weather (Los Angeles): 83°F | Wind 7 mph SW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.17 | San Francisco Giants 3.78
Houston Astros +1.5
MLB Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
MEDIUM
Mkt 56.1% → Model 72.6% +16.5% edge ▾
Market
56.1%
Model
72.6%
Edge
+16.5%
Key Signals
Peter Lambert FIP 2.61 / xFIP 3.85 | K/9: 9.4
George Kirby FIP 3.39 / xFIP 3.49 | K/9: 6.8
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Peter Lambert: ERA 2.42 vs xFIP 3.85 over 22 IP (severity 1.03) — Houston Astros ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — George Kirby: ERA 2.94 vs xFIP 3.49 over 52 IP (severity 0.19) — Seattle Mariners ML may be overpriced by market
Houston Astros injury impact (-2.2%)
Seattle Mariners injury impact (-1.4%)
🌡️ Cool (56°F) at Daikin — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Seattle Mariners schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Houston Astros 4.2 — Seattle Mariners 3.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Peter Lambert: ERA 2.42 | FIP 2.61 / xFIP 3.85 | K/9 9.4 | BB/9 4.5 | IP 22
🔴 George Kirby: ERA 2.94 | FIP 3.39 / xFIP 3.49 | K/9 6.8 | BB/9 2.1 | IP 52
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.762 | AVG 0.258 | R/G 4.78
Seattle Mariners offense: OPS 0.697 | AVG 0.229 | R/G 4.07
Bullpen ERA — Houston Astros: 4.20 | Seattle Mariners: 4.20
Venue: Daikin Park — neutral park
⚕ Houston Astros — Lance McCullers Jr. (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Walker Janek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Lucas Spence (OF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Seattle Mariners — Teddy McGraw (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Dillon Wilson (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Daikin): 56°F | Wind 6 mph SSE (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Houston Astros 4.21 | Seattle Mariners 3.85
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
New York Yankees
MLB  ML  ·  New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
MEDIUM
Mkt 57.9% → Model 63.6% +5.8% edge ▾
Market
57.9%
Model
63.6%
Edge
+5.8%
Key Signals
Brandon Young FIP 4.93 / xFIP 4.80 | K/9: 6.2
Ryan Weathers FIP 3.67 / xFIP 2.79 | K/9: 10.6
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Brandon Young: ERA 4.35 vs xFIP 4.80 over 20 IP (severity 0.34) — Baltimore Orioles ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-2.6%)
New York Yankees injury impact (-3.3%)
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Yankees schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Baltimore Orioles 3.5 — New York Yankees 5.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Brandon Young: ERA 4.35 | FIP 4.93 / xFIP 4.80 | K/9 6.2 | BB/9 3.6 | IP 20
🔴 Ryan Weathers: ERA 3.03 | FIP 3.67 / xFIP 2.79 | K/9 10.6 | BB/9 2.4 | IP 38
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.702 | AVG 0.232 | R/G 4.41
New York Yankees offense: OPS 0.775 | AVG 0.239 | R/G 5.24
Bullpen ERA — Baltimore Orioles: 4.20 | New York Yankees: 4.20
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Jose Caballero (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Travis MacGregor (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Ben Hess (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Nic Lentz (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Baltimore): 63°F | Wind 5 mph NNE (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Baltimore Orioles 3.50 | New York Yankees 5.02
⚠ New York Yankees injury credibility cap applied — model probability anchored near market (64%)
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Under 9.5
MLB San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
MEDIUM
Mkt 52.1% → Model 57.4% +5.3% edge ▾
Market
52.1%
Model
57.4%
Edge
+5.3%
Key Signals
Roki Sasaki FIP 6.64 / xFIP 4.43 | K/9: 8.3
Trevor McDonald FIP 2.77 / xFIP 1.47 | K/9: 10.3
Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
⚠ Los Angeles Dodgers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ San Francisco Giants schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.2 — San Francisco Giants 3.8
Model expected total: 8.2 vs line 9.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Roki Sasaki: ERA 5.97 | FIP 6.64 / xFIP 4.43 | K/9 8.3 | BB/9 4.8 | IP 28
🔴 Trevor McDonald: ERA 1.29 | FIP 2.77 / xFIP 1.47 | K/9 10.3 | BB/9 0.0 | IP 7
Los Angeles Dodgers offense: OPS 0.778 | AVG 0.265 | R/G 5.08
San Francisco Giants offense: OPS 0.649 | AVG 0.242 | R/G 3.25
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Dodgers: 4.20 | San Francisco Giants: 4.20
Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium — park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
No significant injuries reported
🌤 Weather (Los Angeles): 83°F | Wind 7 mph SW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.17 | San Francisco Giants 3.78
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 50.2% · Model 3.23 · +43.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
50.2%
Model Proj
3.23
Edge
+43.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 50.2%. Model: 3.23.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 50.2% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.23 → edge +43.0%
vs Jakob Junis (FIP 3.26 / xFIP 4.96 | WHIP 0.81) | Park 1.05
Game total: model 8.2 vs market 8.0 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.02x)
Research & Stats
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.341 | OBP 0.366 | H/G 1.34 | TB/G 2.25 | HR/G 0.188 | HRR/G 2.75 | K% 10.5% (133 PA)
Facing Jakob Junis: FIP 3.26 / xFIP 4.96 | WHIP 0.81 | K/9 3.9
Park factor 1.05 at Globe Life Field
Nolan Arenado
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 45.7% · Model 2.22 · +35.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
45.7%
Model Proj
2.22
Edge
+35.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 45.7%. Model: 2.22.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 45.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.22 → edge +35.1%
vs Jakob Junis (FIP 3.26 / xFIP 4.96 | WHIP 0.81) | Park 1.05
Game total: model 8.2 vs market 8.0 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.02x)
Research & Stats
Nolan Arenado: AVG 0.266 | OBP 0.324 | H/G 0.89 | TB/G 1.46 | HR/G 0.162 | HRR/G 1.89 | K% 20.6% (136 PA)
Facing Jakob Junis: FIP 3.26 / xFIP 4.96 | WHIP 0.81 | K/9 3.9
Park factor 1.05 at Globe Life Field
Matt Chapman
MLB  San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Hits Over
HIGH
Over 0.5 56.9% · Model 1.04 · +29.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 0.5
Book Odds
56.9%
Model Proj
1.04
Edge
+29.2%
Draftkings: Over 0.5 at 56.9%. Model: 1.04.
Key Signals
Market: Over 0.5 at 56.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 1.04 → edge +29.2%
vs Roki Sasaki (FIP 6.64 / xFIP 4.43 | WHIP 1.70) | Park 0.97
Game total: model 8.2 vs market 9.0 (low-scoring environment, scale 0.91x)
Research & Stats
Matt Chapman: AVG 0.235 | OBP 0.313 | H/G 0.90 | TB/G 1.23 | HR/G 0.026 | HRR/G 1.64 | K% 22.9% (166 PA)
Facing Roki Sasaki: FIP 6.64 / xFIP 4.43 | WHIP 1.70 | K/9 8.3
Park factor 0.97 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Corbin Carroll
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 55.0% · Model 2.43 · +28.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
55.0%
Model Proj
2.43
Edge
+28.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 55.0%. Model: 2.43.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 55.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.43 → edge +28.0%
vs Jakob Junis (FIP 3.26 / xFIP 4.96 | WHIP 0.81) | Park 1.05
Game total: model 8.2 vs market 8.0 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.02x)
Research & Stats
Corbin Carroll: AVG 0.258 | OBP 0.351 | H/G 0.92 | TB/G 1.76 | HR/G 0.135 | HRR/G 2.08 | K% 25.3% (154 PA)
Facing Jakob Junis: FIP 3.26 / xFIP 4.96 | WHIP 0.81 | K/9 3.9
Park factor 1.05 at Globe Life Field
Jonathan Aranda
MLB  Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 51.9% · Model 2.17 · +27.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
51.9%
Model Proj
2.17
Edge
+27.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 51.9%. Model: 2.17.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 51.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.17 → edge +27.9%
vs Kevin Gausman (FIP 3.33 / xFIP 3.36 | WHIP 1.00) | Park 1.05
Game total: model 7.4 vs market 7.0 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.06x)
Research & Stats
Jonathan Aranda: AVG 0.268 | OBP 0.370 | H/G 0.95 | TB/G 1.61 | HR/G 0.179 | HRR/G 2.18 | K% 23.6% (165 PA)
Facing Kevin Gausman: FIP 3.33 / xFIP 3.36 | WHIP 1.00 | K/9 8.4
Park factor 1.05 at Rogers Centre
Cody Bellinger
MLB  New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 56.1% · Model 2.46 · +26.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
56.1%
Model Proj
2.46
Edge
+26.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 56.1%. Model: 2.46.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 56.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.46 → edge +26.9%
vs Brandon Young (FIP 4.93 / xFIP 4.80 | WHIP 1.49) | Park 1.01
Game total: model 8.6 vs market 9.0 (low-scoring environment, scale 0.96x)
Research & Stats
Cody Bellinger: AVG 0.292 | OBP 0.393 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 1.82 | HR/G 0.125 | HRR/G 2.38 | K% 12.7% (173 PA)
Facing Brandon Young: FIP 4.93 / xFIP 4.80 | WHIP 1.49 | K/9 6.2
Park factor 1.01 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
🏒 NHL no qualifying picks
😕 No picks found with edge > 3% today — the model scanned all NHL games and found no suitable edges.
Singles
▾
🏏 IPL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Gujarat Titans
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Sunrisers Hyderabad @ Gujarat Titans
📅 loading…
HIGH
Mkt 46.5% → Model 62.4% +16.0% edge ▾
Market
46.5%
Model
62.4%
Edge
+16.0%
Key Signals
Home venue advantage: Gujarat Titans (+2.5%)
Short rest: Gujarat Titans (1d since last match, -1.5%)
Form edge: Gujarat Titans (blended win-rate gap 33%)
Hot/cold streak: Gujarat Titans hot (100% last 7d) vs Sunrisers Hyderabad cold (50%)
Research & Stats
Rest days — Gujarat Titans: 1 | Sunrisers Hyderabad: 43
Gujarat Titans: 7W-4L (11 matches) | Win% 64% | Recent Win% 100% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin -2
Sunrisers Hyderabad: 7W-4L (11 matches) | Win% 64% | Recent Win% 50% (last 2 games) | Avg run margin +19
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Punjab Kings
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Delhi Capitals @ Punjab Kings
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Final: Delhi Capitals won by 3 wkts  ✗ LOST
Mkt 56.7% → Model 67.2% +10.5% edge ▾
Market
56.7%
Model
67.2%
Edge
+10.5%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Today's Card top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Detroit Pistons +3.5 ↑
NBA
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
+23.5%
—
 21
10.8%
$10.85
+$10.15
Robinhood Action — Detroit Pistons +3.5
Contract price (est.)¢49.7
Buy contracts21
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.85
Profit if win+$10.15
Loss if lose-$10.85
Expected value +$4.56
2
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 ↑
MLB
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians
+16.4%
—
 14
8.4%
$8.44
+$5.56
Robinhood Action — Los Angeles Angels +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢58.3
Buy contracts14
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.44
Profit if win+$5.56
Loss if lose-$8.44
Expected value +$1.97
3
Over 213.5 ↑
NBA
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
+12.8%
—
 10
5.4%
$5.41
+$4.59
Robinhood Action — Over 213.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.1
Buy contracts10
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.41
Profit if win+$4.59
Loss if lose-$5.41
Expected value +$1.07
4
San Francisco Giants +1.5 ↑
MLB
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
+10.2%
—
 8
4.5%
$4.51
+$3.49
Robinhood Action — San Francisco Giants +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢54.4
Buy contracts8
Total cost (incl. commission)$4.51
Profit if win+$3.49
Loss if lose-$4.51
Expected value +$0.64
5
Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5 ↑
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
+8.6%
—
 6
3.1%
$3.12
+$2.88
Robinhood Action — Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5
Contract price (est.)¢50.1
Buy contracts6
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.12
Profit if win+$2.88
Loss if lose-$3.12
Expected value +$0.39
P1
Detroit Pistons (ML) + Los Angeles Angels (ML)
Parlay
+19.1%
—
 14
2.6%
$2.56
+$11.44
Robinhood Action — Detroit Pistons (ML) + Los Angeles Angels (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢16.3
Buy contracts14
Total cost (incl. commission)$2.56
Profit if win+$11.44
P2
Detroit Pistons +3.5 + Over 213.5
Parlay
+21.7%
—
 12
3.4%
$3.35
+$8.65
Robinhood Action — Detroit Pistons +3.5 + Over 213.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢25.9
Buy contracts12
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.35
Profit if win+$8.65
Deployed $38.24 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $61.76
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
170
Model Hit Rate
44.1%
Avg Error
-1.9
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 41 36.6% 21.5 18.1 -3.4
Rebounds 29 44.8% 9.6 8.3 -1.3
Assists 11 36.4% 8.3 6.9 -1.4
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 25 72.0% 1.1 1.3 +0.2
HRR 29 37.9% 4.1 1.1 -3.0
Total Bases 8 25.0% 4.3 1.5 -2.8
Steals 2 0.0% 2.7 1.0 -1.7
Blocks 4 50.0% 2.8 1.2 -1.5
HIGH confidence
43.8%
53H / 68M (121 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
NBA
39.1%
34H / 53M (87 settled)
Avg err: -2.3
MLB
49.4%
41H / 42M (83 settled)
Avg err: -1.5
▶ Hit Rate Trend (170 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-03 05-10
Model Performance
Record
60W–46L
Win Rate
56.6%
Total PnL
$+164.06
ROI
18.2%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
58W–45L (56.3%)
$+171.65
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
🏀 NBA
20W–14L (58.8%)
$+61.20
⚾ MLB
27W–16L (62.8%)
$+36.72
PARLAYS
13W–16L (44.8%)
$+66.14
Watchlist Tracking  — no budget allocated, W-L only
🏒 NHL
1W–3L (25.0%)
4 picks tracked
🏏 IPL
0W–1L (0.0%)
1 pick tracked
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (107 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+164.06 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-03 05-10
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-03 05-10
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 19 60.1% 61.1% +1.0%
15%+ 85 69.7% 54.1% -15.6%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.