Daily Betting Report

Sunday, May 10, 2026 · Generated May 10, 2026 at 10:03 AM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 15 games  |  NHL: 2 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 2,224 used · 17,776 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Saturday, May 09 3W–4L $22.26
NBA Detroit Pistons +4.5 · +29.8% edge
❌ LOST
$13.82
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Final: Detroit Pistons 109 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 116. Model win probability: 79.0%. Actual margin +7 (needed +4.5).
✦ Cleveland Cavaliers injury impact (-0.8%)
✦ Detroit Pistons injuries benefit Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.2%)
MLB Colorado Rockies +1.5 · +17.0% edge
❌ LOST
$8.61
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Final: Colorado Rockies 3 @ Philadelphia Phillies 9. Model projected: Philadelphia Phillies 4.2, Colorado Rockies 4.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection. ⚠ Weather/rain likely a factor.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 12 mph blowing OUT (SW) at Philadelphia — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
✦ 🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Philadelphia (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
NBA Under 211.5 · +12.3% edge
❌ LOST
$5.45
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 131 @ Los Angeles Lakers 108. Actual total 239 vs line 211.5 (over by 27.5). Model projected 206.6.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Atlanta Braves +1.5 · +10.1% edge
✅ WON
+$3.36
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Final: Atlanta Braves 7 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 2. Model projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.0, Atlanta Braves 4.8. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Spencer Strider FIP 8.36 / xFIP 5.43 | K/9: 17.4
✦ Park factor 0.97 (pitcher-friendly: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium)
MLB Chicago White Sox +1.5 · +8.7% edge
✅ WON
+$2.47
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
Final: Seattle Mariners 1 @ Chicago White Sox 6. Model projected: Chicago White Sox 4.1, Seattle Mariners 4.3. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Anthony Kay FIP 5.97 / xFIP 4.97 | K/9: 6.0
✦ Luis Castillo FIP 4.05 / xFIP 4.05 | K/9: 8.2
PARLAY Detroit Pistons (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML) · +21.7% edge
❌ LOST
$2.91
Detroit Pistons (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
❌ Detroit Pistons (Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers) · ❌ Colorado Rockies (Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies)
PARLAY Atlanta Braves +1.5 + Over 8.5 · +10.2% edge
✅ WON
+$2.70
Atlanta Braves +1.5 + Over 8.5
✅ Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers) · ✅ Over 8.5 (Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers)
🏀 NBA 4 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
New York Knicks ↓
NBA  ML  ·  New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 90.0% +37.5% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
90.0%
Edge
+37.5%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Philadelphia 76ers (+2%)
Rating edge: New York Knicks (blended NetRtg diff -22.4)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Philadelphia 76ers injury impact (-0.6%)
New York Knicks injuries benefit Philadelphia 76ers (+0.7%)
Model projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 102 — New York Knicks 105
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: OffRtg 115.9 | DefRtg 116.1 | NetRtg -0.2
New York Knicks: OffRtg 116.5 | DefRtg 110.1 | NetRtg 6.3
Philadelphia 76ers last 14 days: NetRtg -7.6 | Win% 43%
New York Knicks last 14 days: NetRtg 27.8 | Win% 100%
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1 | New York Knicks: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Philadelphia 76ers — Joel Embiid (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Knicks — OG Anunoby (F): DAY-TO-DAY
San Antonio Spurs -4.5 ↓
NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
HIGH
Mkt 50.1% → Model 80.0% +29.9% edge ▾
Market
50.1%
Model
80.0%
Edge
+29.9%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Minnesota Timberwolves (+2%)
Rating edge: San Antonio Spurs (blended NetRtg diff -16.1)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Minnesota Timberwolves injury impact (-2.2%)
San Antonio Spurs injuries benefit Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.9%)
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: OffRtg 118.0 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 3.4
San Antonio Spurs: OffRtg 119.8 | DefRtg 111.5 | NetRtg 8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves last 14 days: NetRtg -8.6 | Win% 40%
San Antonio Spurs last 14 days: NetRtg 16.6 | Win% 80%
Rest days — Minnesota Timberwolves: 1 | San Antonio Spurs: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Minnesota Timberwolves — Donte DiVincenzo (G): OUT
⚕ San Antonio Spurs — David Jones Garcia (F): OUT
Under 217.5 ↓
NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 73.4% +20.9% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
73.4%
Edge
+20.9%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 104 — San Antonio Spurs 106
Model expected total: 209.4 vs market line 217.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves OffRtg: 118.0 vs San Antonio Spurs DefRtg: 111.5
San Antonio Spurs OffRtg: 119.8 vs Minnesota Timberwolves DefRtg: 114.6
Under 214.5 ↓
NBA New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
HIGH
Mkt 52.3% → Model 72.1% +19.9% edge ▾
Market
52.3%
Model
72.1%
Edge
+19.9%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 102 — New York Knicks 105
Model expected total: 206.9 vs market line 214.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
Props
▾
Quentin Grimes
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Points Over
HIGH
Over 6.5 50.7% · Model 11.6 · +38.3% ▾
Market Line
Over 6.5
Book Odds
50.7%
Model Proj
11.6
Edge
+38.3%
Draftkings: Over 6.5 at 50.7%. Model projects 11.6.
Key Signals
Market: Over 6.5 at 50.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.6 → edge +38.3%
New York Knicks allows 110.1 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
Quentin Grimes: 13.4 PPG / 3.6 RPG / 3.3 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Points Over
HIGH
Over 9.5 49.5% · Model 11.9 · +23.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 9.5
Book Odds
49.5%
Model Proj
11.9
Edge
+23.4%
Draftkings: Over 9.5 at 49.5%. Model projects 11.9.
Key Signals
Market: Over 9.5 at 49.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.9 → edge +23.4%
Minnesota Timberwolves allows 114.6 PPG (above avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Keldon Johnson
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 51.5% · Model 4.8 · +22.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
51.5%
Model Proj
4.8
Edge
+22.9%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 51.5%. Model projects 4.8.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 51.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.8 → edge +22.9%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Keldon Johnson: 13.2 PPG / 5.4 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
VJ Edgecombe
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Points Over
HIGH
Over 12.5 54.3% · Model 15.1 · +16.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 12.5
Book Odds
54.3%
Model Proj
15.1
Edge
+16.9%
Draftkings: Over 12.5 at 54.3%. Model projects 15.1.
Key Signals
Market: Over 12.5 at 54.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 15.1 → edge +16.9%
New York Knicks allows 110.1 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: starter adjustment applied (-4%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
VJ Edgecombe: 16.0 PPG / 5.6 RPG / 4.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Mitchell Robinson
NBA  New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 6.5 59.0% · Model 8.5 · +15.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 6.5
Book Odds
59.0%
Model Proj
8.5
Edge
+15.6%
Draftkings: Over 6.5 at 59.0%. Model projects 8.5.
Key Signals
Market: Over 6.5 at 59.0% (draftkings)
Model projects 8.5 → edge +15.6%
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: Net RTG +6.3 | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 110.1
Philadelphia 76ers: Net RTG -0.2 | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 116.1
Mitchell Robinson: 5.7 PPG / 8.8 RPG / 0.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Blocks Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 61.7% · Model 5.0 · +15.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
61.7%
Model Proj
5.0
Edge
+15.6%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 61.7%. Model projects 5.0.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 61.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.0 → edge +15.6%
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: Net RTG +8.3 | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 111.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: Net RTG +3.4 | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 114.6
Victor Wembanyama: 0.0 PPG / 11.4 RPG / 0.0 APG / 0.00 SPG / 5.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Under 10.5 ↓
MLB Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
HIGH
Mkt 52.0% → Model 66.6% +14.6% edge ▾
Market
52.0%
Model
66.6%
Edge
+14.6%
Key Signals
Keegan Akin FIP 6.28 / xFIP 3.03 | K/9: 8.7
Luis Severino FIP 4.45 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9: 9.0
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-2.6%)
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Athletics schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Baltimore Orioles 4.3 — Athletics 4.3
Model expected total: 8.6 vs line 10.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Keegan Akin: ERA 11.12 | FIP 6.28 / xFIP 3.03 | K/9 8.7 | BB/9 0.0 | IP 5
🔴 Luis Severino: ERA 4.15 | FIP 4.45 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9 9.0 | BB/9 5.2 | IP 43
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.704 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.47
Athletics offense: OPS 0.732 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.49
Bullpen ERA — Baltimore Orioles: 4.84 | Athletics: 4.47
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Carlos Torres (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Baltimore): 69°F | Wind 5 mph W (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Baltimore Orioles 4.28 | Athletics 4.29
Over 7.5
MLB Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers
HIGH
Mkt 52.0% → Model 64.8% +12.9% edge ▾
Market
52.0%
Model
64.8%
Edge
+12.9%
Key Signals
Jacob deGrom FIP 3.42 / xFIP 2.68 | K/9: 11.4
Jameson Taillon FIP 6.02 / xFIP 4.11 | K/9: 8.1
Park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly: Globe Life Field)
Texas Rangers injury impact (-5.5%)
Chicago Cubs injury impact (-2.1%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Adam Hamari: high-scoring games (run factor 1.06x avg) — leans Over
👨‍⚖️ Adam Hamari: tight strike zone (K factor 0.95x avg) — favors hitters / walks up
⚠ Texas Rangers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Chicago Cubs schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Texas Rangers 4.7 — Chicago Cubs 4.5
Model expected total: 9.2 vs line 7.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Jacob deGrom: ERA 3.11 | FIP 3.42 / xFIP 2.68 | K/9 11.4 | BB/9 1.9 | IP 37
🔴 Jameson Taillon: ERA 4.24 | FIP 6.02 / xFIP 4.11 | K/9 8.1 | BB/9 3.1 | IP 40
Texas Rangers offense: OPS 0.686 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 3.74
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.774 | AVG 0.255 | R/G 5.38
Bullpen ERA — Texas Rangers: 3.75 | Chicago Cubs: 3.82
Venue: Globe Life Field — park factor 1.05 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Texas Rangers — Declan Cronin (RP): OUT
⚕ Texas Rangers — Nabil Crismatt (SP): OUT
⚕ Texas Rangers — Sebastian Walcott (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Brandon Birdsell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jeff Brigham (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jaxon Wiggins (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Adam Hamari — run factor 1.06x | K factor 0.95x | Above-avg scoring environment
Model expected runs: Texas Rangers 4.72 | Chicago Cubs 4.49
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
San Francisco Giants +1.5
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
HIGH
Mkt 62.8% → Model 75.0% +12.2% edge ▾
Market
62.8%
Model
75.0%
Edge
+12.2%
Key Signals
Tyler Mahle FIP 4.98 / xFIP 3.79 | K/9: 8.5
Bubba Chandler FIP 5.58 / xFIP 5.24 | K/9: 8.2
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Bubba Chandler: ERA 4.76 vs xFIP 5.24 over 34 IP (severity 0.28) — Pittsburgh Pirates ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.94 (pitcher-friendly: Oracle Park)
Pittsburgh Pirates injury impact (-3.8%)
🌡️ Cool (55°F) at San Francisco — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ San Francisco Giants schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Pittsburgh Pirates schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: San Francisco Giants 4.1 — Pittsburgh Pirates 3.9
Research & Stats
🔵 Tyler Mahle: ERA 5.0 | FIP 4.98 / xFIP 3.79 | K/9 8.5 | BB/9 4.5 | IP 36
🔴 Bubba Chandler: ERA 4.76 | FIP 5.58 / xFIP 5.24 | K/9 8.2 | BB/9 6.9 | IP 34
San Francisco Giants offense: OPS 0.641 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 3.15
Pittsburgh Pirates offense: OPS 0.728 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 5.00
Bullpen ERA — San Francisco Giants: 4.07 | Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.73
Venue: Oracle Park — park factor 0.94 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Anthony Solometo (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Oddanier Mosqueda (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Mike Clevinger (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Dominic Fletcher (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Sean Sullivan (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (San Francisco): 55°F | Wind 7 mph WSW (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: San Francisco Giants 4.15 | Pittsburgh Pirates 3.92
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
MLB New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
HIGH
Mkt 62.9% → Model 70.5% +7.6% edge ▾
Market
62.9%
Model
70.5%
Edge
+7.6%
Key Signals
Logan Henderson FIP 0.83 / xFIP 2.29 | K/9: 12.4
Park factor 1.02 (pitcher-friendly: American Family Field)
New York Yankees injury impact (-4.2%)
⚠ Milwaukee Brewers schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Yankees schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.5 — New York Yankees 4.6
Research & Stats
🔵 Logan Henderson: ERA 4.5 | FIP 0.83 / xFIP 2.29 | K/9 12.4 | BB/9 1.1 | IP 8
🔴 Carlos Rodón (away): stats unavailable
Milwaukee Brewers offense: OPS 0.688 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 5.16
New York Yankees offense: OPS 0.778 | AVG 0.240 | R/G 5.30
Bullpen ERA — Milwaukee Brewers: 3.44 | New York Yankees: 3.12
Venue: American Family Field — park factor 1.02 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — Gerson Garabito (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Milwaukee Brewers — J.B. Bukauskas (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Travis MacGregor (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Ryan Weathers (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Yankees — Ben Hess (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Alex MacKay (near-neutral tendencies)
Model expected runs: Milwaukee Brewers 4.50 | New York Yankees 4.59
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Baltimore Orioles +1.5
MLB Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
HIGH
Mkt 60.1% → Model 67.3% +7.2% edge ▾
Market
60.1%
Model
67.3%
Edge
+7.2%
Key Signals
Keegan Akin FIP 6.28 / xFIP 3.03 | K/9: 8.7
Luis Severino FIP 4.45 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9: 9.0
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-2.6%)
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Athletics schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Baltimore Orioles 4.3 — Athletics 4.3
Research & Stats
🔵 Keegan Akin: ERA 11.12 | FIP 6.28 / xFIP 3.03 | K/9 8.7 | BB/9 0.0 | IP 5
🔴 Luis Severino: ERA 4.15 | FIP 4.45 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9 9.0 | BB/9 5.2 | IP 43
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.704 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.47
Athletics offense: OPS 0.732 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.49
Bullpen ERA — Baltimore Orioles: 4.84 | Athletics: 4.47
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Carlos Torres (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Baltimore): 69°F | Wind 5 mph W (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Baltimore Orioles 4.28 | Athletics 4.29
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Hunter Goodman
MLB  Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 45.9% · Model 4.08 · +47.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
45.9%
Model Proj
4.08
Edge
+47.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 45.9%. Model: 4.08.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 45.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.08 → edge +47.6%
vs Cristopher Sánchez (FIP 2.39) at Citizens Bank Park (park factor 1.10)
Research & Stats
Hunter Goodman: AVG 0.246 | OBP 0.316 | H/G 0.94 | TB/G 1.97 | HR/G 0.278 | HRR/G 2.11 (152 PA)
Facing Cristopher Sánchez: FIP 2.39
Park factor 1.10 at Citizens Bank Park
Cole Young
MLB  Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 45.9% · Model 3.27 · +46.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
45.9%
Model Proj
3.27
Edge
+46.4%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 45.9%. Model: 3.27.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 45.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.27 → edge +46.4%
vs Davis Martin (FIP 2.38) at Rate Field (park factor 0.95)
Research & Stats
Cole Young: AVG 0.266 | OBP 0.344 | H/G 0.93 | TB/G 1.35 | HR/G 0.075 | HRR/G 1.95 (157 PA)
Facing Davis Martin: FIP 2.38
Park factor 0.95 at Rate Field
Cody Bellinger
MLB  New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 49.5% · Model 5.11 · +46.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
49.5%
Model Proj
5.11
Edge
+46.2%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 49.5%. Model: 5.11.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 49.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.11 → edge +46.2%
vs Logan Henderson (FIP 0.83) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Cody Bellinger: AVG 0.289 | OBP 0.385 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 1.85 | HR/G 0.128 | HRR/G 2.38 (169 PA)
Facing Logan Henderson: FIP 0.83
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Ben Rice
MLB  New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 47.6% · Model 5.02 · +46.2% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
47.6%
Model Proj
5.02
Edge
+46.2%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 47.6%. Model: 5.02.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 47.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.02 → edge +46.2%
vs Logan Henderson (FIP 0.83) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Ben Rice: AVG 0.316 | OBP 0.427 | H/G 1.06 | TB/G 2.34 | HR/G 0.343 | HRR/G 2.69 (143 PA)
Facing Logan Henderson: FIP 0.83
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
MLB  New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 44.6% · Model 3.24 · +46.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
44.6%
Model Proj
3.24
Edge
+46.0%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 44.6%. Model: 3.24.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 44.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.24 → edge +46.0%
vs Logan Henderson (FIP 0.83) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AVG 0.206 | OBP 0.289 | H/G 0.74 | TB/G 1.18 | HR/G 0.103 | HRR/G 1.51 (159 PA)
Facing Logan Henderson: FIP 0.83
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
Aaron Judge
MLB  New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 47.4% · Model 4.77 · +44.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
47.4%
Model Proj
4.77
Edge
+44.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 47.4%. Model: 4.77.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 47.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.77 → edge +44.8%
vs Logan Henderson (FIP 0.83) at American Family Field (park factor 1.02)
Research & Stats
Aaron Judge: AVG 0.266 | OBP 0.403 | H/G 0.95 | TB/G 2.23 | HR/G 0.375 | HRR/G 2.52 (177 PA)
Facing Logan Henderson: FIP 0.83
Park factor 1.02 at American Family Field
🏒 NHL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Vegas Golden Knights
NHL  ML  ·  Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks
MEDIUM
Mkt 51.3% → Model 73.2% +21.9% edge ▾
Market
51.3%
Model
73.2%
Edge
+21.9%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Anaheim Ducks (+2%)
Rating edge: Vegas Golden Knights (blended goal-diff -1.19)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Vegas Golden Knights injuries benefit Anaheim Ducks (+0.6%)
Research & Stats
Anaheim Ducks last 14 days: NetRtg -0.50 | Win% 50%
Vegas Golden Knights last 14 days: NetRtg 1.67 | Win% 83%
Rest days — Anaheim Ducks: 2 | Vegas Golden Knights: 2
⚕ Vegas Golden Knights — Mark Stone (RW): DAY-TO-DAY
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Buffalo Sabres +1.5
NHL Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens
MEDIUM
Mkt 67.8% → Model 84.0% +16.2% edge ▾
Market
67.8%
Model
84.0%
Edge
+16.2%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Montreal Canadiens (+2%)
Rating edge: Buffalo Sabres (blended goal-diff -0.37)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Buffalo Sabres injuries benefit Montreal Canadiens (+2.0%)
Research & Stats
Montreal Canadiens last 14 days: NetRtg 0.33 | Win% 50%
Buffalo Sabres last 14 days: NetRtg 1.00 | Win% 60%
Rest days — Montreal Canadiens: 2 | Buffalo Sabres: 2
⚕ Buffalo Sabres — Noah Ostlund (C): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Today's Card top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
New York Knicks (ML) ↑
NBA
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
+37.5%
—
 35
19.1%
$19.06
+$15.94
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts35
Total cost (incl. commission)$19.06
Profit if win+$15.94
Loss if lose-$19.06
Expected value +$12.44
2
San Antonio Spurs -4.5 ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
+29.9%
—
 27
14.1%
$14.07
+$12.93
Robinhood Action — San Antonio Spurs -4.5
Contract price (est.)¢50.1
Buy contracts27
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.07
Profit if win+$12.93
Loss if lose-$14.07
Expected value +$7.52
3
Under 217.5 ↑
NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
+20.9%
—
 19
10.4%
$10.36
+$8.64
Robinhood Action — Under 217.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts19
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.36
Profit if win+$8.64
Loss if lose-$10.36
Expected value +$3.60
4
Under 214.5 ↑
NBA
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
+19.9%
—
 17
9.2%
$9.22
+$7.78
Robinhood Action — Under 214.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.3
Buy contracts17
Total cost (incl. commission)$9.22
Profit if win+$7.78
Loss if lose-$9.22
Expected value +$3.04
5
Under 10.5 ↑
MLB
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
+14.6%
—
 12
6.5%
$6.47
+$5.53
Robinhood Action — Under 10.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.0
Buy contracts12
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.47
Profit if win+$5.53
Loss if lose-$6.47
Expected value +$1.52
P1
New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
Parlay
+46.7%
—
 24
8.4%
$8.45
+$15.55
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks (ML) + San Antonio Spurs (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢33.2
Buy contracts24
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.45
Profit if win+$15.55
P2
New York Knicks -1.5 + Under 214.5
Parlay
+37.0%
—
 21
5.9%
$5.92
+$15.08
Robinhood Action — New York Knicks -1.5 + Under 214.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.2
Buy contracts21
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.92
Profit if win+$15.08
Deployed $73.55 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $26.45
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
155
Model Hit Rate
45.8%
Avg Error
-1.8
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 38 39.5% 22.2 19.1 -3.1
Rebounds 27 48.1% 9.8 8.6 -1.2
Assists 11 36.4% 8.3 6.9 -1.4
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 25 72.0% 1.1 1.3 +0.2
HRR 25 40.0% 4.1 1.2 -3.0
Total Bases 6 16.7% 4.0 1.3 -2.7
Steals 2 0.0% 2.7 1.0 -1.7
HIGH confidence
46.2%
49H / 57M (106 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
NBA
41.0%
32H / 46M (78 settled)
Avg err: -2.2
MLB
50.6%
39H / 38M (77 settled)
Avg err: -1.4
▶ Hit Rate Trend (155 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-02 05-09
Model Performance
Record
58W–41L
Win Rate
58.6%
Total PnL
$+190.61
ROI
23.0%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
56W–40L (58.3%)
$+198.20
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
NBA
19W–11L (63.3%)
$+78.91
MLB
26W–16L (61.9%)
$+31.19
PARLAYS
13W–14L (48.1%)
$+80.51
Watchlist Tracking  — no budget allocated, W-L only
🏒 NHL
0W–0L
No picks settled yet
🏏 IPL
0W–0L
No picks settled yet
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (100 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+190.61 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-02 05-09
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-02 05-09
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 18 59.7% 58.8% -0.9%
15%+ 79 69.2% 57.0% -12.2%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.