Daily Betting Report

Monday, May 04, 2026 · Generated May 04, 2026 at 08:57 AM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 12 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 96 used · 19,904 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Sunday, May 03 5W–2L +$36.67
MLB Houston Astros Moneyline · +22.8% edge
✅ WON
+$12.49
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
Final: Houston Astros 3 @ Boston Red Sox 1. Model projected: Boston Red Sox 4.1, Houston Astros 4.8. Model's directional call was correct.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Ranger Suarez: ERA 3.09 vs xFIP 3.73 over 35 IP (severity 0.36) — Boston Red Sox ML may be overpriced by market
✦ 🌬️ Wind 12 mph blowing OUT (NW) at Boston — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
MLB Over 9.5 Total · +22.4% edge
✅ WON
+$9.37
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Final: Atlanta Braves 11 @ Colorado Rockies 6. Model projected: Colorado Rockies 6.2, Atlanta Braves 6.2. Actual total 17 vs line 9.5 (over by 7.5). Model projected 12.4.
✦ Kyle Freeland FIP 3.55 / xFIP 3.48 | K/9: 7.6
✦ Park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly: Coors Field)
MLB Chicago Cubs Moneyline · +18.5% edge
✅ WON
+$6.61
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Final: Arizona Diamondbacks 4 @ Chicago Cubs 8. Model projected: Chicago Cubs 5.9, Arizona Diamondbacks 3.8. Model's directional call was correct.
✦ 🌧️ 79% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
✦ Matthew Boyd FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.08 | K/9: 13.0
MLB Under 12.5 Total · +18.2% edge
✅ WON
+$7.49
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Final: Arizona Diamondbacks 4 @ Chicago Cubs 8. Model projected: Chicago Cubs 5.9, Arizona Diamondbacks 3.8. Actual total 12 vs line 12.5 (under by 0.5). Model projected 9.7.
✦ 🌧️ 79% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
✦ Matthew Boyd FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.08 | K/9: 13.0
MLB Colorado Rockies +1.5 Spread · +15.6% edge
❌ LOST
$7.10
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Final: Atlanta Braves 11 @ Colorado Rockies 6. Model projected: Colorado Rockies 6.2, Atlanta Braves 6.2. Correct side but didn't cover +1.5 (actual margin -5.0).
✦ Kyle Freeland FIP 3.55 / xFIP 3.48 | K/9: 7.6
✦ Park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly: Coors Field)
PARLAY Houston Astros (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline) Parlay · +24.8% edge
✅ WON
+$11.28
Houston Astros (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)
✅ Houston Astros (Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox) · ✅ Chicago Cubs (Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs)
PARLAY Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Spread) + Over 9.5 (Total) Parlay · +23.2% edge
❌ LOST
$3.47
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Spread) + Over 9.5 (Total)
❌ Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies) · ✅ Over 9.5 (Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies)
Singles (top 5 by edge)
New York Knicks -7.5 ↓
NBA  Spread  ·  Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
HIGH
Mkt 49.7% → Model 71.8% +22.1% edge ▾
Market
49.7%
Model
71.8%
Edge
+22.1%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: New York Knicks (+2%)
Rating edge: New York Knicks (blended NetRtg diff +12.2)
Rest edge: New York Knicks has 2 more rest day(s) (+1.6%)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
New York Knicks injury impact (-0.7%)
Philadelphia 76ers injuries benefit New York Knicks (+0.6%)
Model projected score: New York Knicks 105 — Philadelphia 76ers 102
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: OffRtg 116.5 | DefRtg 110.1 | NetRtg 6.3
Philadelphia 76ers: OffRtg 115.9 | DefRtg 116.1 | NetRtg -0.2
New York Knicks last 14 days: NetRtg 18.8 | Win% 60%
Philadelphia 76ers last 14 days: NetRtg 2.0 | Win% 67%
Rest days — New York Knicks: 3 | Philadelphia 76ers: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ New York Knicks — Jeremy Sochan (F): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia 76ers — Joel Embiid (C): DAY-TO-DAY
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢49.7
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.35
Profit if win+$9.65
Loss if lose-$10.35
Expected value +$4.02
Under 217.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 73.4% +20.9% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
73.4%
Edge
+20.9%
Key Signals
Model projected score: San Antonio Spurs 106 — Minnesota Timberwolves 104
Model expected total: 209.4 vs market line 217.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs OffRtg: 119.8 vs Minnesota Timberwolves DefRtg: 114.6
Minnesota Timberwolves OffRtg: 118.0 vs San Antonio Spurs DefRtg: 111.5
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts19
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.36
Profit if win+$8.64
Loss if lose-$10.36
Expected value +$3.60
Under 213.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
HIGH
Mkt 52.3% → Model 69.5% +17.2% edge ▾
Market
52.3%
Model
69.5%
Edge
+17.2%
Key Signals
Model projected score: New York Knicks 105 — Philadelphia 76ers 102
Model expected total: 206.9 vs market line 213.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
New York Knicks OffRtg: 116.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers DefRtg: 116.1
Philadelphia 76ers OffRtg: 115.9 vs New York Knicks DefRtg: 110.1
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.3
Buy contracts15
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.14
Profit if win+$6.86
Loss if lose-$8.14
Expected value +$2.28
Under 11.5 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
HIGH
Mkt 53.8% → Model 66.2% +12.3% edge ▾
Market
53.8%
Model
66.2%
Edge
+12.3%
Key Signals
Edward Cabrera FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.91 | K/9: 7.4
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Edward Cabrera: ERA 3.06 vs xFIP 3.91 over 35 IP (severity 0.48) — Chicago Cubs ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly: Wrigley Field)
Chicago Cubs injury impact (-2.1%)
Cincinnati Reds injury impact (-5.8%)
🌬️ Wind 11 mph blowing OUT (SW) at Chicago — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
⚠ Chicago Cubs schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Cincinnati Reds schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago Cubs 5.2 — Cincinnati Reds 4.4
Model expected total: 9.6 vs line 11.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Edward Cabrera: ERA 3.06 | FIP 3.68 / xFIP 3.91 | K/9 7.4 | BB/9 3.1 | IP 35
🔴 Chase Petty (away): stats unavailable
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.783 | AVG 0.261 | R/G 5.44
Cincinnati Reds offense: OPS 0.687 | AVG 0.217 | R/G 4.15
Bullpen ERA — Chicago Cubs: 3.89 | Cincinnati Reds: 4.50
Venue: Wrigley Field — park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jaxon Wiggins (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Brandon Birdsell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jeff Brigham (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Connor Burns (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Josh Staumont (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Alex Young (RP): OUT
⚕ Cincinnati Reds — Carson Spiers (SP): OUT
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 67°F | Wind 11 mph SW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Chicago Cubs 5.25 | Cincinnati Reds 4.38
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢53.8
Buy contracts10
Total cost (incl. commission)$5.58
Profit if win+$4.42
Loss if lose-$5.58
Expected value +$1.03
San Francisco Giants +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
HIGH
Mkt 56.6% → Model 65.0% +8.4% edge ▾
Market
56.6%
Model
65.0%
Edge
+8.4%
Key Signals
Randy Vásquez FIP 3.32 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9: 9.2
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Randy Vásquez: ERA 2.94 vs xFIP 3.44 over 33 IP (severity 0.29) — San Diego Padres ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.94 (pitcher-friendly: Oracle Park)
San Diego Padres injury impact (-4.4%)
🌡️ Cool (56°F) at San Francisco — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ San Francisco Giants schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ San Diego Padres schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: San Francisco Giants 3.2 — San Diego Padres 3.9
Research & Stats
🔵 Trevor McDonald (home): stats unavailable
🔴 Randy Vásquez: ERA 2.94 | FIP 3.32 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9 9.2 | BB/9 3.0 | IP 33
San Francisco Giants offense: OPS 0.642 | AVG 0.243 | R/G 3.12
San Diego Padres offense: OPS 0.686 | AVG 0.234 | R/G 4.39
Bullpen ERA — San Francisco Giants: 3.87 | San Diego Padres: 4.30
Venue: Oracle Park — park factor 0.94 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ San Diego Padres — Yu Darvish (SP): OUT
⚕ San Diego Padres — Blake Hunt (C): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (San Francisco): 56°F | Wind 5 mph S (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: San Francisco Giants 3.16 | San Diego Padres 3.86
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢56.6
Buy contracts6
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.52
Profit if win+$2.48
Loss if lose-$3.52
Expected value +$0.38
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 61.5% · Edge: +24.4%
HIGH
New York Knicks (Moneyline)
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks · Model: 88.5% · Edge: +17.7%
Under 213.5 (Total)
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks · Model: 69.5% · Edge: +17.2%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢37.1
Buy contracts11
Total cost$4.30
Profit if win+$6.70
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 44.0% · Edge: +17.6%
MEDIUM
Minnesota Timberwolves +13.5 (Spread)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs · Model: 59.9% · Edge: +9.7%
Under 217.5 (Total)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs · Model: 73.4% · Edge: +20.9%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.4
Buy contracts9
Total cost$2.55
Profit if win+$6.45
Props Watchlist — model projections only. No sportsbook line available. Search Robinhood manually before betting.
Karl-Anthony Towns
NBA  New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 11.9 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.9
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Karl-Anthony Towns rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.9 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Karl-Anthony Towns averages 11.9 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 116.1 (opp) | Net +6.3
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | Net -0.2
New York Knicks recent (14d): PPG 118.8 | OPPG 100.0 | Win% 60%
Model projected team pts: 114.3 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — New York Knicks: 3d | Philadelphia 76ers: 1d
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 11.5 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.5
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Victor Wembanyama rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Victor Wembanyama averages 11.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 114.6 (opp) | Net +8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | Net +3.4
San Antonio Spurs recent (14d): PPG 112.8 | OPPG 100.5 | Win% 75%
Model projected team pts: 114.1 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 5d | Minnesota Timberwolves: 3d
Rudy Gobert
NBA  Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 11.5 · Bet Over ≤ 11 ▾
Projected
11.5
Bet Over ≤
11
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Rudy Gobert rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Key Signals
Rudy Gobert averages 11.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | PPG 118.0 | OPPG 111.5 (opp) | Net +3.4
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | Net +8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves recent (14d): PPG 113.4 | OPPG 105.8 | Win% 80%
Model projected team pts: 111.6 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Minnesota Timberwolves: 3d | San Antonio Spurs: 5d
Tyrese Maxey
NBA  Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 29.6 · Bet Over ≤ 29 ▾
Projected
29.6
Bet Over ≤
29
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Tyrese Maxey points' on Robinhood. Model line: 29.6 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 29.
Key Signals
Tyrese Maxey season avg: 28.3 PPG
New York Knicks allows 110.1 PPG — average defense
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | PPG 115.9 | OPPG 110.1 (opp) | Net -0.2
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | Net +6.3
Philadelphia 76ers recent (14d): PPG 105.8 | OPPG 103.8 | Win% 67%
Model projected team pts: 109.0 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Philadelphia 76ers: 1d | New York Knicks: 3d
Jalen Brunson
NBA  New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 27.4 · Bet Over ≤ 27 ▾
Projected
27.4
Bet Over ≤
27
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Jalen Brunson points' on Robinhood. Model line: 27.4 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 27.
Key Signals
Jalen Brunson season avg: 26.0 PPG
Philadelphia 76ers allows 116.1 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
New York Knicks: 53W-29L | PPG 116.5 | OPPG 116.1 (opp) | Net +6.3
Philadelphia 76ers: 45W-37L | Net -0.2
New York Knicks recent (14d): PPG 118.8 | OPPG 100.0 | Win% 60%
Model projected team pts: 114.3 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — New York Knicks: 3d | Philadelphia 76ers: 1d
Victor Wembanyama
NBA  San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 26.2 · Bet Over ≤ 26 ▾
Projected
26.2
Bet Over ≤
26
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Victor Wembanyama points' on Robinhood. Model line: 26.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 26.
Key Signals
Victor Wembanyama season avg: 25.0 PPG
Minnesota Timberwolves allows 114.6 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | PPG 119.8 | OPPG 114.6 (opp) | Net +8.3
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49W-33L | Net +3.4
San Antonio Spurs recent (14d): PPG 112.8 | OPPG 100.5 | Win% 75%
Model projected team pts: 114.1 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — San Antonio Spurs: 5d | Minnesota Timberwolves: 3d
Cam Schlittler
MLB  New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles · Strikeouts Over
HIGH
Proj 7.0 · Bet Over ≤ 7 ▾
Projected
7.0
Bet Over ≤
7
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Cam Schlittler strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~7.0 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 7.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.7 → adjusted 11.5 → projects 7.0 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 1.57 / xFIP 2.43 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 41 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Cam Schlittler: ERA 1.51 | FIP 1.57 | xFIP 2.43 | K/9 10.7 | BB/9 1.3 | HR/9 0.22
Season IP: 41 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Yankee Stadium (park factor 1.07)
Opponent K%: 24.5% (league avg 22.8%)
José Soriano
MLB  Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox · Strikeouts Over
HIGH
Proj 6.9 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.9
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
HIGH
Search 'José Soriano strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.9 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.5 → adjusted 11.3 → projects 6.9 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.94 / xFIP 2.88 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 42 — limited sample
Research & Stats
José Soriano: ERA 0.84 | FIP 2.94 | xFIP 2.88 | K/9 10.5 | BB/9 3.4 | HR/9 0.64
Season IP: 42 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Angel Stadium (park factor 0.99)
Opponent K%: 24.6% (league avg 22.8%)
Brice Turang
MLB  Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Brice Turang hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Kyle Leahy (FIP 5.50).
Key Signals
Brice Turang: .291 AVG / .428 OBP this season (139 PA)
Kyle Leahy FIP 5.50 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.7 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Kyle Leahy: ERA 5.52 | FIP 5.50 | xFIP 3.80 | K/9 6.8 | BB/9 3.4 | HR/9 1.86
Season IP: 29 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Busch Stadium (park factor 0.98)
Opponent K%: 20.4% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 5.50 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.7 hits in 5.5 inn
Garrett Mitchell
MLB  Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Garrett Mitchell hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Kyle Leahy (FIP 5.50).
Key Signals
Garrett Mitchell: .231 AVG / .381 OBP this season (114 PA)
Kyle Leahy FIP 5.50 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.7 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Kyle Leahy: ERA 5.52 | FIP 5.50 | xFIP 3.80 | K/9 6.8 | BB/9 3.4 | HR/9 1.86
Season IP: 29 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Busch Stadium (park factor 0.98)
Opponent K%: 20.4% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 5.50 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.7 hits in 5.5 inn
William Contreras
MLB  Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'William Contreras hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Kyle Leahy (FIP 5.50).
Key Signals
William Contreras: .298 AVG / .370 OBP this season (138 PA)
Kyle Leahy FIP 5.50 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.7 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Kyle Leahy: ERA 5.52 | FIP 5.50 | xFIP 3.80 | K/9 6.8 | BB/9 3.4 | HR/9 1.86
Season IP: 29 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Busch Stadium (park factor 0.98)
Opponent K%: 20.4% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 5.50 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.7 hits in 5.5 inn
Aaron Nola
MLB  Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.0 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.0
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Aaron Nola strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.0 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.1 → adjusted 9.8 → projects 6.0 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.71 / xFIP 3.37 (above league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 31 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Aaron Nola: ERA 6.03 | FIP 4.71 | xFIP 3.37 | K/9 10.1 | BB/9 3.8 | HR/9 1.74
Season IP: 31 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: loanDepot park (park factor 0.94)
Opponent K%: 22.1% (league avg 22.8%)
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
New York Knicks -7.5 (Spread) ↑
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
+22.1%
—
 20
10.3%
$10.35
+$9.65
2
Under 217.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
+20.9%
—
 19
10.4%
$10.36
+$8.64
3
Under 213.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
+17.2%
—
 15
8.1%
$8.14
+$6.86
4
Under 11.5 (Total) ↑
MLB
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
+12.3%
—
 10
5.6%
$5.58
+$4.42
5
San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
+8.4%
—
 6
3.5%
$3.52
+$2.48
P1
New York Knicks (Moneyline) + Under 213.5 (Total) ↑
Parlay
+24.4%
—
 11
4.3%
$4.30
+$6.70
P2
Minnesota Timberwolves +13.5 (Spread) + Under 217.5 (Total) ↑
Parlay
+17.6%
—
 9
2.5%
$2.55
+$6.45
Deployed $44.80 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $55.20
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
88
Model Hit Rate
52.3%
Avg Error
-1.1
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 22 36.4% 26.8 24.5 -2.3
Rebounds 18 50.0% 11.1 10.1 -1.1
Assists 8 37.5% 9.9 8.2 -1.6
Strikeouts 19 52.6% 6.1 5.1 -1.0
Hits 21 76.2% 1.0 1.2 +0.2
HIGH confidence
59.5%
25H / 17M (42 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
45.7%
21H / 25M (46 settled)
Model Performance
Record
32W–25L
Win Rate
56.1%
Total PnL
$+84.63
ROI
16.4%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
31W–24L (56.4%)
$+99.41
MEDIUM
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-14.78
NBA
8W–4L (66.7%)
$+30.79
MLB
18W–12L (60.0%)
$+25.63
PARLAYS
6W–9L (40.0%)
$+28.21
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (58 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+84.63 total
$+88 $0 $-54 04-25 04-30 05-03
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-30 05-03
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 5 51.4% 50.0% -1.4%
15%+ 50 70.2% 54.0% -16.2%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.