Daily Betting Report

Sunday, April 26, 2026 · Generated April 26, 2026 at 09:02 AM PDT
NBA: 4 games  |  MLB: 16 games  |  Budget: $100
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Under 15.0
MLB  Total  ·  San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
🕐 1:06 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
47.6%
Model
98.8%
Edge
+51.2%
Key Signals
Ryne Nelson FIP: 5.13 | K/9: 8.9
Michael King FIP: 3.31 | K/9: 8.6
Model projected score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.2 — San Diego Padres 4.7
Model expected total: 8.9 vs line 15.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Ryne Nelson (home): ERA 6.97 | FIP 5.13 | K/9 8.9 | BB/9 4.0 | IP 20
🔴 Michael King (away): ERA 2.28 | FIP 3.31 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 4.6 | IP 27
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.717 | AVG 0.249 | R/G 4.62
San Diego Padres offense: OPS 0.683 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.46
Bullpen ERA — Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.44 | San Diego Padres: 3.63
Venue: Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.19 | San Diego Padres 4.68
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢47.6
Buy contracts49
Total cost (incl. commission)$24.31
Profit if win+$24.69
Loss if lose-$24.31
Expected value +$24.12
Colorado Rockies
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets
🕐 10:41 AM PDT
MEDIUM
Market
32.2%
Model
74.6%
Edge
+42.4%
Key Signals
Kodai Senga FIP: 5.42 | K/9: 11.6
Model projected score: New York Mets 3.9 — Colorado Rockies 5.1
Research & Stats
🔵 Kodai Senga (home): ERA 8.83 | FIP 5.42 | K/9 11.6 | BB/9 5.3 | IP 17
🔴 TBD (away): stats unavailable
New York Mets offense: OPS 0.636 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 3.50
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.717 | AVG 0.252 | R/G 4.15
Bullpen ERA — New York Mets: 4.13 | Colorado Rockies: 4.34
Venue: Citi Field — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: New York Mets 3.95 | Colorado Rockies 5.14
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢32.2
Buy contracts44
Total cost (incl. commission)$15.04
Profit if win+$28.96
Loss if lose-$15.04
Expected value +$17.77
Over 207.5
NBA  Total  ·  Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
🕐 6:40 PM PDT
HIGH
Market
52.4%
Model
92.9%
Edge
+40.5%
Key Signals
Model expected total: 228.1 vs market line 207.5
Combined pace: 100.0 possessions/game
B2B team reduces pace — leans Under
Research & Stats
Houston Rockets OffRtg: 115.2 vs Los Angeles Lakers DefRtg: 114.6
Los Angeles Lakers OffRtg: 116.3 vs Houston Rockets DefRtg: 110.0
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.4
Buy contracts38
Total cost (incl. commission)$20.66
Profit if win+$17.34
Loss if lose-$20.66
Expected value +$14.65
Houston Astros
MLB  Moneyline  ·  New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
🕐 11:11 AM PDT
HIGH
Market
44.9%
Model
85.0%
Edge
+40.1%
Key Signals
Spencer Arrighetti FIP: 3.02 | K/9: 10.6
Luis Gil FIP: 7.04 | K/9: 5.4
Model projected score: Houston Astros 6.7 — New York Yankees 3.9
Research & Stats
🔵 Spencer Arrighetti (home): ERA 2.45 | FIP 3.02 | K/9 10.6 | BB/9 6.5 | IP 11
🔴 Luis Gil (away): ERA 4.11 | FIP 7.04 | K/9 5.4 | BB/9 4.8 | IP 15
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.782 | AVG 0.259 | R/G 5.14
New York Yankees offense: OPS 0.765 | AVG 0.234 | R/G 5.26
Bullpen ERA — Houston Astros: 6.04 | New York Yankees: 3.10
Venue: Daikin Park — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: Houston Astros 6.74 | New York Yankees 3.93
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢44.9
Buy contracts38
Total cost (incl. commission)$17.82
Profit if win+$20.18
Loss if lose-$17.82
Expected value +$14.48
Colorado Rockies
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets
🕐 2:11 PM PDT
MEDIUM
Market
37.8%
Model
74.6%
Edge
+36.8%
Key Signals
Kodai Senga FIP: 5.42 | K/9: 11.6
Model projected score: New York Mets 3.9 — Colorado Rockies 5.1
Research & Stats
🔵 Kodai Senga (home): ERA 8.83 | FIP 5.42 | K/9 11.6 | BB/9 5.3 | IP 17
🔴 TBD (away): stats unavailable
New York Mets offense: OPS 0.636 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 3.50
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.717 | AVG 0.252 | R/G 4.15
Bullpen ERA — New York Mets: 4.13 | Colorado Rockies: 4.34
Venue: Citi Field — neutral park
No significant injuries reported
Model expected runs: New York Mets 3.95 | Colorado Rockies 5.14
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢37.8
Buy contracts36
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.33
Profit if win+$21.67
Loss if lose-$14.33
Expected value +$12.52
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1
Combined prob: 63.4% · Edge: +48.9%
HIGH
Colorado Rockies (Moneyline)
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets · Model: 74.6% · Edge: +42.4%
Houston Astros (Moneyline)
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros · Model: 85.0% · Edge: +40.1%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢14.4
Buy contracts42
Total cost$6.91
Profit if win+$35.09
Parlay #2
Combined prob: 63.4% · Edge: +46.4%
HIGH
Houston Astros (Moneyline)
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros · Model: 85.0% · Edge: +40.1%
Colorado Rockies (Moneyline)
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets · Model: 74.6% · Edge: +36.8%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢17.0
Buy contracts36
Total cost$6.83
Profit if win+$29.17
Props Research (verify Robinhood price before betting)
Brandon Ingram
NBA  Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Points Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
21.5
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Brandon Ingram season avg: 21.5 PPG
Cleveland Cavaliers allows 115.4 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
Research & Stats
Toronto Raptors: 46W-36L | PPG 114.6 | OPPG 115.4 (opp) | Net +2.8
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | Net +4.1
Toronto Raptors recent (14d): PPG 114.7 | OPPG 115.0 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 114.9 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Toronto Raptors: 1d | Cleveland Cavaliers: 1d
Search 'Brandon Ingram points' on Robinhood. Model line: 21.5 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 21.
Scottie Barnes
NBA  Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Rebounds Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
7.5
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Scottie Barnes averages 7.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Toronto Raptors: 46W-36L | PPG 114.6 | OPPG 115.4 (opp) | Net +2.8
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | Net +4.1
Toronto Raptors recent (14d): PPG 114.7 | OPPG 115.0 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 114.9 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Toronto Raptors: 1d | Cleveland Cavaliers: 1d
Search 'Scottie Barnes rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 7.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 7.
Donovan Mitchell
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors · Points Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
27.9
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Donovan Mitchell season avg: 27.9 PPG
Toronto Raptors allows 111.8 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 111.8 (opp) | Net +4.1
Toronto Raptors: 46W-36L | Net +2.8
Cleveland Cavaliers recent (14d): PPG 115.0 | OPPG 114.7 | Win% 67%
Model projected team pts: 115.4 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Cleveland Cavaliers: 1d | Toronto Raptors: 1d
Search 'Donovan Mitchell points' on Robinhood. Model line: 27.9 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 27.
Evan Mobley
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors · Rebounds Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
9.0
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Evan Mobley averages 9.0 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 111.8 (opp) | Net +4.1
Toronto Raptors: 46W-36L | Net +2.8
Cleveland Cavaliers recent (14d): PPG 115.0 | OPPG 114.7 | Win% 67%
Model projected team pts: 115.4 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Cleveland Cavaliers: 1d | Toronto Raptors: 1d
Search 'Evan Mobley rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 9.0 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 9.
Deni Avdija
NBA  Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Points Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
24.2
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Deni Avdija season avg: 24.2 PPG
San Antonio Spurs allows 111.5 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
⚠ Portland Trail Blazers on B2B — consider reducing line or fading
Research & Stats
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | PPG 115.5 | OPPG 111.5 (opp) | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers recent (14d): PPG 104.0 | OPPG 111.3 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 109.7 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Portland Trail Blazers: 0d | San Antonio Spurs: 0d
Search 'Deni Avdija points' on Robinhood. Model line: 24.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 24.
Donovan Clingan
NBA  Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Model Line
11.6
Direction
Over
Confidence
HIGH
Key Signals
Donovan Clingan averages 11.6 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Portland Trail Blazers: 42W-40L | PPG 115.5 | OPPG 111.5 (opp) | Net -0.3
San Antonio Spurs: 62W-20L | Net +8.3
Portland Trail Blazers recent (14d): PPG 104.0 | OPPG 111.3 | Win% 33%
Model projected team pts: 109.7 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Portland Trail Blazers: 0d | San Antonio Spurs: 0d
Search 'Donovan Clingan rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 11.6 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 11.
Kyle Bradish
MLB  Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
6.2
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 10.1 → projects 6.2 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.56 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 25 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Kyle Bradish: ERA 3.96 | FIP 3.56 | K/9 10.1 | BB/9 4.7 | HR/9 0.72
Season IP: 25 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (park factor 1.00)
Search 'Kyle Bradish strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.2 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Connelly Early
MLB  Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
5.3
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 8.6 → projects 5.3 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.88 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 25 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Connelly Early: ERA 2.88 | FIP 3.88 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 4.7 | HR/9 0.72
Season IP: 25 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (park factor 1.00)
Search 'Connelly Early strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.3 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Chris Sale
MLB  Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
5.5
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 9.0 → projects 5.5 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.17 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 29 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Chris Sale: ERA 2.79 | FIP 4.17 | K/9 9.0 | BB/9 2.2 | HR/9 1.55
Season IP: 29 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Truist Park (park factor 1.03)
Search 'Chris Sale strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.5 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Aaron Nola
MLB  Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
6.1
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 10.0 → projects 6.1 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 4.12 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 26 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Aaron Nola: ERA 5.06 | FIP 4.12 | K/9 10.0 | BB/9 3.4 | HR/9 1.37
Season IP: 26 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Truist Park (park factor 1.03)
Search 'Aaron Nola strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.1 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Slade Cecconi
MLB  Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Model Line
4.5
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
K/9: 7.4 → projects 4.5 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 5.72 (above league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 24 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Slade Cecconi: ERA 6.20 | FIP 5.72 | K/9 7.4 | BB/9 4.5 | HR/9 1.86
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Rogers Centre (park factor 1.00)
Search 'Slade Cecconi strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~4.5 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 4.
Toronto Blue Jays top-order batters
MLB  Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians · Hits Over (1+)
MEDIUM
Model Line
1.0
Direction
Over
Confidence
MEDIUM
Key Signals
Pitcher FIP 5.72 — above avg (4.20), favorable for hitters
Model projects ~4.2 hits in 5.5 inn
Target: Toronto Blue Jays leadoff, #2, and #3 batters for 1+ hit props
Research & Stats
Slade Cecconi: ERA 6.20 | FIP 5.72 | K/9 7.4 | BB/9 4.5 | HR/9 1.86
Season IP: 24 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Rogers Centre (park factor 1.00)
FIP 5.72 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~4.2 hits in 5.5 inn
Slade Cecconi (FIP 5.72) is hittable. On Robinhood, search 1+ hits over props for Toronto Blue Jays's #1–#3 batters in the lineup. Model projects ~4.2 total hits in 5.5 inn.
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Under 15.0 (Total)
MLB
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
1:06 PM PDT
+51.2%
—
 49
24.3%
$24.31
+$24.69
2
Colorado Rockies (Moneyline)
MLB
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets
10:41 AM PDT
+42.4%
—
 44
15.0%
$15.04
+$28.96
3
Over 207.5 (Total)
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
6:40 PM PDT
+40.5%
—
 38
20.7%
$20.66
+$17.34
4
Houston Astros (Moneyline)
MLB
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
11:11 AM PDT
+40.1%
—
 38
17.8%
$17.82
+$20.18
5
Colorado Rockies (Moneyline)
MLB
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets
2:11 PM PDT
+36.8%
—
 36
14.3%
$14.33
+$21.67
P1
Colorado Rockies (Moneyline) + Houston Astros (Moneyline)
Parlay
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets / New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
+48.9%
—
 42
6.9%
$6.91
+$35.09
P2
Houston Astros (Moneyline) + Colorado Rockies (Moneyline)
Parlay
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros / Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets
+46.4%
—
 36
6.8%
$6.83
+$29.17
Deployed $105.90 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $0.00
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.