Daily Betting Report — Tuesday, April 28, 2026

📊 Yesterday's Results — Monday, April 27 1W–6L $34.61

MLB Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Spread · +38.2% edge

✅ WON

+$19.44

Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox

Final: Los Angeles Angels 7 @ Chicago White Sox 8. Model projected: Chicago White Sox 3.7, Los Angeles Angels 4.8. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.

✦ 🌧️ 92% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement

✦ Anthony Kay FIP: 6.15 | K/9: 5.6

MLB Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Spread · +36.0% edge

❌ LOST

$13.81

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 4 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 2. Model projected: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.0, St. Louis Cardinals 3.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection.

✦ 🌬️ Wind 11 mph blowing OUT (SE) at Pittsburgh — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)

✦ Mason Montgomery FIP: 2.21 | K/9: 17.0

NBA Under 225.5 Total · +31.4% edge

❌ LOST

$15.72

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

Final: Minnesota Timberwolves 113 @ Denver Nuggets 125. Actual total 238 vs line 225.5 (over by 12.5). Model projected 212.8.

✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game

MLB Under 9.0 Total · +24.7% edge

❌ LOST

$11.13

Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins

Final: Seattle Mariners 4 @ Minnesota Twins 11. Model projected: Minnesota Twins 3.8, Seattle Mariners 1.9. Actual total 15 vs line 9.0 (over by 6.0). Model projected 5.7. ⚠ Weather/rain likely a factor.

✦ 🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing IN (WNW) at Minneapolis — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)

✦ 🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Minneapolis (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement

MLB Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline · +16.1% edge

❌ LOST

$7.54

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

Final: Boston Red Sox 5 @ Toronto Blue Jays 0. Model projected: Toronto Blue Jays 4.3, Boston Red Sox 2.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection.

✦ Dylan Cease FIP: 1.37 | K/9: 15.7

✦ Ranger Suarez FIP: 4.13 | K/9: 6.3

PARLAY Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline) Parlay · +18.9% edge

❌ LOST

$2.87

Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)

❌ Toronto Blue Jays (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays) · ❌ Chicago Cubs (Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres)

PARLAY Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline) Parlay · +20.1% edge

❌ LOST

$2.98

Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)

❌ Toronto Blue Jays (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays) · ❌ Los Angeles Angels (Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox)

🏀

No NBA games today.

⚾

No MLB games today.

🔍

No bets meeting the minimum edge threshold (3%) found today.
This is correct — only bet when there's real edge.

Props Model Accuracy — how often the model's projection exceeded the actual stat

Props Settled

Model Hit Rate

37.0%

Avg Error

-2.6

Prop Type	Settled	Hit Rate	Avg Proj	Avg Actual	Avg Error
Points	6	16.7%	28.6	21.5	-7.1
Rebounds	7	57.1%	11.8	10.7	-1.1
Assists	3	33.3%	10.4	10.3	-0.1
Strikeouts	9	22.2%	6.4	4.2	-2.2
Hits	2	100.0%	1.0	1.5	+0.5

HIGH confidence

58.3%

7H / 5M (12 settled)

MEDIUM confidence

20.0%

3H / 12M (15 settled)

Model Performance

Record

7W–11L

Win Rate

38.9%

Total PnL

$-38.99

ROI

-19.3%

By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above

HIGH

6W–10L (37.5%)

$-24.21

MEDIUM

1W–1L (50.0%)

$-14.78

NBA

2W–3L (40.0%)

$-18.73

MLB

3W–6L (33.3%)

$-46.91

PARLAY

2W–2L (50.0%)

$+26.65

⚠ Only 18 settled bet(s) — need 30+ for statistically meaningful calibration.

▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (18 settled bets)

Cumulative PnL $-38.99 total

Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)

Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align

Edge bucket	Bets	Model win%	Actual win%	Delta
3–8%	2	55.9%	100.0%	+44.1%
15%+	16	75.7%	31.2%	-44.5%

Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.