Daily Betting Report

Thursday, May 14, 2026 · Generated May 14, 2026 at 08:58 AM PDT
NBA: 0 games  |  MLB: 11 games  |  NHL: 2 games  |  IPL: 2 matches  |  WNBA: 2 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 3,728 used · 16,272 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Wednesday, May 13 3W–4L $0.57
MLB Baltimore Orioles +1.5 · +22.2% edge
✅ WON
+$9.22
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Final: New York Yankees 0 @ Baltimore Orioles 7. Model projected: Baltimore Orioles 4.0, New York Yankees 4.3. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ Kyle Bradish FIP 4.2 / xFIP 3.50 | K/9: 9.9
✦ Max Fried FIP 2.7 / xFIP 3.89 | K/9: 7.4
MLB Miami Marlins ML · +17.2% edge
✅ WON
+$6.54
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins
Final: Miami Marlins 9 @ Minnesota Twins 5. Model projected: Minnesota Twins 3.7, Miami Marlins 4.9. Model's directional call was correct.
✦ Simeon Woods Richardson FIP 6.12 / xFIP 5.22 | K/9: 4.4
✦ Max Meyer FIP 2.75 / xFIP 3.40 | K/9: 9.6
MLB Houston Astros +1.5 · +17.6% edge
✅ WON
+$11.84
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Final: Seattle Mariners 3 @ Houston Astros 4. Model projected: Houston Astros 4.5, Seattle Mariners 4.9. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ 🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Daikin (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
✦ Lance McCullers Jr. FIP 4.7 / xFIP 3.94 | K/9: 9.8
MLB Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 · +19.3% edge
❌ LOST
$12.85
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
Final: Philadelphia Phillies 1 @ Boston Red Sox 3. Model projected: Boston Red Sox 4.2, Philadelphia Phillies 4.3. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Sonny Gray: ERA 3.54 vs xFIP 4.18 over 28 IP (severity 0.42) — Boston Red Sox ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Sonny Gray FIP 4.27 / xFIP 4.18 | K/9: 4.8
MLB Detroit Tigers ML · +19.9% edge
❌ LOST
$8.24
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
Final: Detroit Tigers 2 @ New York Mets 3. Model projected: New York Mets 3.3, Detroit Tigers 4.2. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Christian Scott: ERA 3.27 vs xFIP 3.80 over 11 IP (severity 0.46) — New York Mets ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Christian Scott FIP 3.56 / xFIP 3.80 | K/9: 12.3
PARLAY Detroit Tigers (ML) + Miami Marlins (ML) · +22.6% edge
❌ LOST
$3.39
Detroit Tigers (ML) + Miami Marlins (ML)
❌ Detroit Tigers (Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets) · ✅ Miami Marlins (Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins)
PARLAY Detroit Tigers (ML) + Milwaukee Brewers (ML) · +24.0% edge
❌ LOST
$3.69
Detroit Tigers (ML) + Milwaukee Brewers (ML)
❌ Detroit Tigers (Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets) · ❌ Milwaukee Brewers (San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers)
🏀
No NBA games today.
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Houston Astros +1.5 ↓
MLB Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
HIGH
Mkt 59.3% → Model 78.4% +19.1% edge ▾
Market
59.3%
Model
78.4%
Edge
+19.1%
Why this pick ▾
The model builds a strong edge from a combination of pitching quality, roster health, and situational factors. Model projects Seattle Mariners by 0.1 runs (Houston Astros 4.1 — Seattle Mariners 4.2).
Context & Stats
Seattle Mariners injury impact (-1.0%)
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Seattle Mariners schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Houston Astros 4.1 — Seattle Mariners 4.2
🔵 Mike Burrows: ERA 5.04 | FIP 4.6 / xFIP 3.72 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 2.9 | IP 44
🔴 Luis Castillo: ERA 6.57 | FIP 4.33 / xFIP 3.71 | K/9 8.7 | BB/9 3.1 | IP 38
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.753 | AVG 0.257 | R/G 4.61
Seattle Mariners offense: OPS 0.700 | AVG 0.230 | R/G 4.16
Bullpen ERA — Houston Astros: 6.37 (WHIP 1.74) | Seattle Mariners: 3.22 (WHIP 1.34)
Venue: Daikin Park — neutral park
⚕ Houston Astros — Walker Janek (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Houston Astros — Lucas Spence (OF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Seattle Mariners — Cal Raleigh (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Seattle Mariners — Teddy McGraw (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Willie Traynor (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Daikin): 58°F | Wind 12 mph NNE (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Athletics +1.5 ↓
MLB St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics
HIGH
Mkt 61.1% → Model 78.1% +17.0% edge ▾
Market
61.1%
Model
78.1%
Edge
+17.0%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge against St. Louis Cardinals, driven by a significant ERA trap on Michael McGreevy — 2.18 ERA vs 3.70 xFIP in 45 innings suggests regression risk the market hasn't fully priced. Model projects St. Louis Cardinals by 0.1 runs (Athletics 4.2 — St. Louis Cardinals 4.3).
Context & Stats
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Michael McGreevy: ERA 2.18 vs xFIP 3.70 over 45 IP (severity 1.52) — St. Louis Cardinals ML may be overpriced by market
St. Louis Cardinals injury impact (-2.2%)
⚠ Athletics schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ St. Louis Cardinals schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Athletics 4.2 — St. Louis Cardinals 4.3
🔵 Jacob Lopez: ERA 6.11 | FIP 6.62 / xFIP 5.62 | K/9 7.2 | BB/9 6.2 | IP 35
🔴 Michael McGreevy: ERA 2.18 | FIP 3.84 / xFIP 3.70 | K/9 6.6 | BB/9 2.0 | IP 45
Athletics offense: OPS 0.731 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.43
St. Louis Cardinals offense: OPS 0.708 | AVG 0.239 | R/G 4.62
Bullpen ERA — Athletics: 4.23 (WHIP 1.42) | St. Louis Cardinals: 4.55 (WHIP 1.42)
Venue: Sutter Health Park — neutral park
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Sem Robberse (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Victor Santos (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Ixan Henderson (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Packy Naughton (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ St. Louis Cardinals — Zack Thompson (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Felix Neon (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Sutter): 60°F | Wind 4 mph NW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Chicago White Sox +1.5 ↓
MLB Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
HIGH
Mkt 57.2% → Model 72.9% +15.8% edge ▾
Market
57.2%
Model
72.9%
Edge
+15.8%
Why this pick ▾
A strong pitching mismatch drives this pick — Kris Bubic (3.79 xFIP) holds a meaningful advantage over Anthony Kay (4.75 xFIP). Model projects Kansas City Royals by 0.4 runs (Chicago White Sox 4.0 — Kansas City Royals 4.4).
Context & Stats
Chicago White Sox injury impact (-1.2%)
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-1.2%)
⚠ Chicago White Sox schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago White Sox 4.0 — Kansas City Royals 4.4
🔵 Anthony Kay: ERA 4.89 | FIP 5.46 / xFIP 4.75 | K/9 6.4 | BB/9 4.4 | IP 35
🔴 Kris Bubic: ERA 3.5 | FIP 3.5 / xFIP 3.79 | K/9 9.2 | BB/9 4.5 | IP 46
Chicago White Sox offense: OPS 0.719 | AVG 0.233 | R/G 4.36
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.711 | AVG 0.241 | R/G 4.16
Bullpen ERA — Chicago White Sox: 5.89 (WHIP 1.62) | Kansas City Royals: 4.53 (WHIP 1.44)
Venue: Rate Field — park factor 0.95 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Mason Adams (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago White Sox — Tim Elko (1B): OUT
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 56°F | Wind 3 mph NNE (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Colorado Rockies +1.5
MLB Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
HIGH
Mkt 57.3% → Model 71.3% +14.0% edge ▾
Market
57.3%
Model
71.3%
Edge
+14.0%
Why this pick ▾
The model builds a strong edge from a combination of pitching quality, roster health, and situational factors. Model projects Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.5 runs (Pittsburgh Pirates 3.7 — Colorado Rockies 3.2).
Context & Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates injury impact (-2.2%)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-1.3%)
⚠ Pittsburgh Pirates schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.7 — Colorado Rockies 3.2
🔵 Mason Montgomery: ERA 2.87 | FIP 2.61 / xFIP 2.78 | K/9 13.6 | BB/9 4.7 | IP 15
🔴 Chase Dollander: ERA 3.35 | FIP 3.71 / xFIP 3.32 | K/9 9.8 | BB/9 3.6 | IP 43
Pittsburgh Pirates offense: OPS 0.725 | AVG 0.248 | R/G 4.95
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.718 | AVG 0.249 | R/G 4.33
Bullpen ERA — Pittsburgh Pirates: 4.43 (WHIP 1.41) | Colorado Rockies: 4.75 (WHIP 1.41)
Venue: PNC Park — park factor 0.96 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Anthony Solometo (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Oddanier Mosqueda (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Mike Clevinger (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Dominic Fletcher (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Sean Sullivan (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Paul Clemons (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Pittsburgh): 45°F | Wind 8 mph W (blowing in) | Precip 0%
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Over 7.5
MLB Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
HIGH
Mkt 50.7% → Model 62.0% +11.3% edge ▾
Market
50.7%
Model
62.0%
Edge
+11.3%
Why this pick ▾
The model projects 8.3 combined runs vs the market line of 7.5, a 0.8-run lean toward the over. Projected: Atlanta Braves 4.8 — Chicago Cubs 3.8. Note: Chris Sale's 2.20 ERA vs 2.84 xFIP over 49 IP is an ERA trap signal that may affect run distribution.
Context & Stats
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Chris Sale: ERA 2.20 vs xFIP 2.84 over 49 IP (severity 0.43) — Atlanta Braves ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Ben Brown: ERA 1.82 vs xFIP 3.48 over 29 IP (severity 1.59) — Chicago Cubs ML may be overpriced by market
Chicago Cubs injury impact (-1.2%)
⚠ Atlanta Braves schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
⚠ Chicago Cubs schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Atlanta Braves 4.8 — Chicago Cubs 3.8
Model expected total: 8.3 vs line 7.5
🔵 Chris Sale: ERA 2.2 | FIP 3.24 / xFIP 2.84 | K/9 10.3 | BB/9 2.2 | IP 49
🔴 Ben Brown: ERA 1.82 | FIP 2.72 / xFIP 3.48 | K/9 8.3 | BB/9 2.8 | IP 29
Atlanta Braves offense: OPS 0.787 | AVG 0.272 | R/G 5.51
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.748 | AVG 0.246 | R/G 5.07
Bullpen ERA — Atlanta Braves: 2.90 (WHIP 1.06) | Chicago Cubs: 4.16 (WHIP 1.37)
Venue: Truist Park — park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Blake Burkhalter (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Brandon Birdsell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jeff Brigham (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jaxon Wiggins (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Atlanta): 67°F | Wind 11 mph NNW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Ben Brown
MLB  Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves · Strikeouts Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 54.5% · Model 5.8 · +36.0% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
54.5%
Model Proj
5.8
Edge
+36.0%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 Ks at 54.5%. Model: 5.8 Ks in 7.0 inn.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Ben Brown at 5.8 strikeouts vs the line of 3.5 — a strong edge of +2.30.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 3.5 Ks at 54.5% (draftkings)
K/9 8.3 (adj 7.5) → 5.8 Ks in 7.0 inn | Edge +36.0%
Opp K%: 20.5% vs league avg 22.8%
Ben Brown: ERA 1.82 | FIP 2.72 / xFIP 3.48 | K/9 8.3 | BB/9 2.8 | HR/9 0.31
Season IP: 29 | Projected start: ~7.0 inn (actual avg: 29.2 inn/start)
Venue: Truist Park (park factor 1.03)
Matt Olson
MLB  Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 46.3% · Model 2.55 · +34.7% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
46.3%
Model Proj
2.55
Edge
+34.7%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 46.3%. Model: 2.55.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Matt Olson at 2.55 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +1.05 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 46.3% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.55 → edge +34.7%
Game total: model 8.3 vs market 7.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.10x)
Matt Olson: AVG 0.295 | OBP 0.374 | H/G 1.14 | TB/G 2.46 | HR/G 0.326 | HRR/G 2.84 | K% 23.2% (190 PA)
Facing Ben Brown: FIP 2.72 / xFIP 3.48 | WHIP 0.92 | K/9 8.3
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
Chase Dollander
MLB  Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates · Strikeouts Over
HIGH
Over 5.5 50.7% · Model 7.7 · +32.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 5.5
Book Odds
50.7%
Model Proj
7.7
Edge
+32.9%
Draftkings: Over 5.5 Ks at 50.7%. Model: 7.7 Ks in 7.0 inn.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Chase Dollander at 7.7 strikeouts vs the line of 5.5 — a strong edge of +2.20.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 5.5 Ks at 50.7% (draftkings)
K/9 9.8 (adj 9.9) → 7.7 Ks in 7.0 inn | Edge +32.9%
Opp K%: 23.0% vs league avg 22.8%
Chase Dollander: ERA 3.35 | FIP 3.71 / xFIP 3.32 | K/9 9.8 | BB/9 3.6 | HR/9 1.05
Season IP: 43 | Projected start: ~7.0 inn (actual avg: 21.5 inn/start)
Venue: PNC Park (park factor 0.96)
Elly De La Cruz
MLB  Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 48.5% · Model 2.37 · +31.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
48.5%
Model Proj
2.37
Edge
+31.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 48.5%. Model: 2.37.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Elly De La Cruz at 2.37 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +0.87 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 48.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.37 → edge +31.1%
Game total: model 8.3 vs market 7.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.10x)
Elly De La Cruz: AVG 0.295 | OBP 0.356 | H/G 1.19 | TB/G 2.09 | HR/G 0.233 | HRR/G 2.58 | K% 27.7% (191 PA)
Facing Foster Griffin: FIP 4.04 / xFIP 3.71 | WHIP 1.04 | K/9 8.2
Park factor 1.12 at Great American Ball Park
Pete Crow-Armstrong
MLB  Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 0.5 61.5% · Model 1.69 · +30.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 0.5
Book Odds
61.5%
Model Proj
1.69
Edge
+30.8%
Draftkings: Over 0.5 at 61.5%. Model: 1.69.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Pete Crow-Armstrong at 1.69 HRR vs the line of 0.5 — a strong +1.19 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 0.5 at 61.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 1.69 → edge +30.8%
Game total: model 8.3 vs market 7.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.10x)
Pete Crow-Armstrong: AVG 0.236 | OBP 0.306 | H/G 0.86 | TB/G 1.35 | HR/G 0.093 | HRR/G 1.81 | K% 25.9% (174 PA)
Facing Chris Sale: FIP 3.24 / xFIP 2.84 | WHIP 0.88 | K/9 10.3
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
Drake Baldwin
MLB  Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 44.4% · Model 2.17 · +29.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
44.4%
Model Proj
2.17
Edge
+29.4%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 44.4%. Model: 2.17.
Why this pick ▾
The model projects Drake Baldwin at 2.17 Total Bases vs the line of 1.5 — a strong +0.67 edge.
Context & Stats
Market: Over 1.5 at 44.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.17 → edge +29.4%
Game total: model 8.3 vs market 7.5 (high-scoring environment, scale 1.10x)
Drake Baldwin: AVG 0.295 | OBP 0.378 | H/G 1.19 | TB/G 2.09 | HR/G 0.256 | HRR/G 2.81 | K% 20.9% (196 PA)
Facing Ben Brown: FIP 2.72 / xFIP 3.48 | WHIP 0.92 | K/9 8.3
Park factor 1.03 at Truist Park
🏒 NHL 3 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Vegas Golden Knights
NHL  ML  ·  Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks
HIGH
Mkt 51.1% → Model 72.6% +21.5% edge ▾
Market
51.1%
Model
72.6%
Edge
+21.5%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge driven by season net rating and recent form differential.
Context & Stats
Home ice advantage: Anaheim Ducks (+2%)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Anaheim Ducks injury impact (-2.6%)
Anaheim Ducks: 3.33 GPG | 3.51 GAPG | NetRtg -0.18
Vegas Golden Knights: 3.23 GPG | 3.05 GAPG | NetRtg 0.18
Anaheim Ducks last 14 days: NetRtg -0.17 | Win% 50%
Vegas Golden Knights last 14 days: NetRtg 1.33 | Win% 67%
Rest days — Anaheim Ducks: 2 | Vegas Golden Knights: 2
⚕ Anaheim Ducks — Ryan Poehling (C): OUT
⚕ Anaheim Ducks — Drew Helleson (D): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Anaheim Ducks — Radko Gudas (D): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Vegas Golden Knights — Mark Stone (RW): DAY-TO-DAY
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Montreal Canadiens +1.5
NHL Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
HIGH
Mkt 68.5% → Model 88.8% +20.3% edge ▾
Market
68.5%
Model
88.8%
Edge
+20.3%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge driven by season net rating and recent form differential.
Context & Stats
Home ice advantage: Buffalo Sabres (+2%)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Buffalo Sabres injury impact (-2.0%)
Buffalo Sabres: 3.51 GPG | 2.94 GAPG | NetRtg 0.57
Montreal Canadiens: 3.45 GPG | 3.12 GAPG | NetRtg 0.33
Buffalo Sabres last 14 days: NetRtg -0.40 | Win% 60%
Montreal Canadiens last 14 days: NetRtg 0.83 | Win% 50%
Rest days — Buffalo Sabres: 2 | Montreal Canadiens: 2
⚕ Buffalo Sabres — Noah Ostlund (C): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Under 6.5
NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks
MEDIUM
Mkt 52.4% → Model 67.9% +15.5% edge ▾
Market
52.4%
Model
67.9%
Edge
+15.5%
Why this pick ▾
The model finds a strong edge driven by season net rating and recent form differential.
Context & Stats
Model projected score: Anaheim Ducks 2.6 — Vegas Golden Knights 3.0
Model expected total: 5.8 vs market line 6.5
Anaheim Ducks GPG (blended): 3.06 vs Vegas Golden Knights GAPG (blended): 2.56
Vegas Golden Knights GPG (blended): 3.38 vs Anaheim Ducks GAPG (blended): 3.23
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
🏀 WNBA 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Minnesota Lynx
🏀 WNBA  ML  ·  Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings
HIGH
Mkt 38.9% → Model 51.8% +13.0% edge ▾
Market
38.9%
Model
51.8%
Edge
+13.0%
Why this pick ▾
Context & Stats
Home court: Dallas Wings (+2%)
Dallas Wings on back-to-back (-4%)
Dallas Wings lineup impact (-2.4%)
Minnesota Lynx injuries benefit Dallas Wings (+26.7%)
Dallas Wings: 89.5 PPG | FG 48.2% | AST/TO 1.78 | NetRtg +21.0
Minnesota Lynx: 89.0 PPG | FG 50.0% | AST/TO 1.33 | NetRtg +26.5
Rest — Dallas Wings: 1 day(s) | Minnesota Lynx: 0 day(s)
⚕ Dallas Wings — Azzi Fudd (3.0 PPG, 3% pts share): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Minnesota Lynx — Dorka Juhasz (5.4 PPG, 6% pts share): OUT
⚕ Minnesota Lynx — Napheesa Collier (18.4 PPG, 21% pts share): OUT
Portland Fire
🏀 WNBA  ML  ·  New York Liberty @ Portland Fire
HIGH
Mkt 17.8% → Model 30.3% +12.5% edge ▾
Market
17.8%
Model
30.3%
Edge
+12.5%
Why this pick ▾
Context & Stats
Home court: Portland Fire (+2%)
Portland Fire lineup impact (-16.9%)
New York Liberty injuries benefit Portland Fire (+30.0%)
Portland Fire: 90.5 PPG | FG 45.3% | AST/TO 1.67 | NetRtg +27.2
New York Liberty: 100.0 PPG | FG 51.0% | AST/TO 1.39 | NetRtg +36.0
Rest — Portland Fire: 0 day(s) | New York Liberty: 0 day(s)
⚕ New York Liberty — Rebecca Allen (5.8 PPG, 6% pts share): OUT
⚕ New York Liberty — Raquel Carrera: OUT
⚕ New York Liberty — Satou Sabally (15.9 PPG, 16% pts share): OUT
⚕ New York Liberty — Leonie Fiebich (7.6 PPG, 8% pts share): OUT
⚕ New York Liberty — Sabrina Ionescu (16.7 PPG, 17% pts share): OUT
⚕ New York Liberty — Marine Fauthoux: OUT
⚕ Portland Fire — Karlie Samuelson (5.3 PPG, 6% pts share): OUT
⚕ Portland Fire — Carla Leite (7.9 PPG, 9% pts share): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Portland Fire — Sug Sutton (6.0 PPG, 7% pts share): DAY-TO-DAY
🏏 IPL 2 picks · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Chennai Super Kings
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Chennai Super Kings @ Lucknow Super Giants
📅 loading…
MEDIUM
Mkt 57.7% → Model 68.6% +10.9% edge ▾
Market
57.7%
Model
68.6%
Edge
+10.9%
Why this pick ▾
Context & Stats
Home venue advantage: Lucknow Super Giants (+2.5%)
Form edge: Chennai Super Kings (blended win-rate gap 32%)
Rest days — Lucknow Super Giants: 43 | Chennai Super Kings: 45
Lucknow Super Giants: 2W-7L (9 matches) | Win% 22% | Recent Win% 0% (last 1 games) | Avg run margin -11
Chennai Super Kings: 6W-5L (11 matches) | Win% 55% | Recent Win% 100% (last 1 games) | Avg run margin +10
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Mumbai Indians
IPL  Match Winner  ·  Mumbai Indians @ Punjab Kings
🔴 Match In Progress
🔒 Locked MEDIUM
Mkt 44.9% → Model 54.0% +9.1% edge ▾
Market
44.9%
Model
54.0%
Edge
+9.1%
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables. Moneyline (match winner) only.
Today's Card top 3 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Houston Astros +1.5 ↑
MLB
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
+19.1%
—
 18
11.0%
$11.04
+$6.96
Robinhood Action — Houston Astros +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢59.3
Buy contracts18
Total cost (incl. commission)$11.04
Profit if win+$6.96
Loss if lose-$11.04
Expected value +$3.07
2
Athletics +1.5 ↑
MLB
St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics
+17.0%
—
 16
10.1%
$10.09
+$5.91
Robinhood Action — Athletics +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢61.1
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.09
Profit if win+$5.91
Loss if lose-$10.09
Expected value +$2.41
3
Chicago White Sox +1.5 ↑
MLB
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
+15.8%
—
 14
8.3%
$8.28
+$5.72
Robinhood Action — Chicago White Sox +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢57.2
Buy contracts14
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.28
Profit if win+$5.72
Loss if lose-$8.28
Expected value +$1.93
P1
Montreal Canadiens (ML) + Vegas Golden Knights (ML)
Parlay
+21.4%
—
 12
3.2%
$3.16
+$8.84
Robinhood Action — Montreal Canadiens (ML) + Vegas Golden Knights (ML)
Parlay contract price (est.)¢24.3
Buy contracts12
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.16
Profit if win+$8.84
P2
Athletics +1.5 + Under 9.5
Parlay
+16.8%
—
 8
2.7%
$2.66
+$5.34
Robinhood Action — Athletics +1.5 + Under 9.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢31.3
Buy contracts8
Total cost (incl. commission)$2.66
Profit if win+$5.34
Deployed $35.23 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $64.77
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
206
Model Hit Rate
45.1%
Avg Error
-1.9
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 47 40.4% 21.1 17.7 -3.4
Rebounds 36 41.7% 8.9 7.2 -1.7
Assists 14 35.7% 7.5 5.9 -1.7
Strikeouts 22 45.5% 6.2 4.9 -1.3
Hits 26 69.2% 1.1 1.2 +0.2
HRR 41 43.9% 3.7 1.3 -2.4
Total Bases 12 33.3% 3.7 1.9 -1.8
Steals 3 33.3% 2.7 1.3 -1.3
Blocks 5 60.0% 2.6 1.4 -1.2
HIGH confidence
45.2%
71H / 86M (157 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
NBA
41.0%
43H / 62M (105 settled)
Avg err: -2.4
MLB
49.5%
50H / 51M (101 settled)
Avg err: -1.4
▶ Hit Rate Trend (206 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-05 05-13
Model Performance
Record
67W–60L
Win Rate
52.8%
Total PnL
$+109.46
ROI
10.2%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
65W–59L (52.4%)
$+117.05
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
🏀 NBA
21W–16L (56.8%)
$+51.82
⚾ MLB
33W–22L (60.0%)
$+10.46
PARLAYS
13W–22L (37.1%)
$+47.18
Watchlist Tracking  — no budget allocated, W-L only
🏒 NHL
4W–3L (57.1%)
7 picks tracked
🏏 IPL
2W–1L (66.7%)
3 picks tracked
🏀 WNBA
0W–0L
No picks settled yet
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (128 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+109.46 total
$+213 $0 $-54 04-25 05-04 05-13
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-04 05-13
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 22 60.4% 61.9% +1.5%
15%+ 103 68.9% 49.5% -19.4%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.