📊 Yesterday's Results — Monday, April 27
1W–6L
$34.61
MLB
Los Angeles Angels +1.5
Spread
· +38.2% edge
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
Final: Los Angeles Angels 7 @ Chicago White Sox 8. Model projected: Chicago White Sox 3.7, Los Angeles Angels 4.8. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ 🌧️ 92% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
✦ Anthony Kay FIP: 6.15 | K/9: 5.6
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
Spread
· +36.0% edge
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Final: St. Louis Cardinals 4 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 2. Model projected: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.0, St. Louis Cardinals 3.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 11 mph blowing OUT (SE) at Pittsburgh — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
✦ Mason Montgomery FIP: 2.21 | K/9: 17.0
NBA
Under 225.5
Total
· +31.4% edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Final: Minnesota Timberwolves 113 @ Denver Nuggets 125. Actual total 238 vs line 225.5 (over by 12.5). Model projected 212.8.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB
Under 9.0
Total
· +24.7% edge
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
Final: Seattle Mariners 4 @ Minnesota Twins 11. Model projected: Minnesota Twins 3.8, Seattle Mariners 1.9. Actual total 15 vs line 9.0 (over by 6.0). Model projected 5.7. ⚠ Weather/rain likely a factor.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing IN (WNW) at Minneapolis — suppresses HR, moderate Under lean (-0.3 runs)
✦ 🌧️ 100% precipitation chance at Minneapolis (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
MLB
Toronto Blue Jays
Moneyline
· +16.1% edge
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Final: Boston Red Sox 5 @ Toronto Blue Jays 0. Model projected: Toronto Blue Jays 4.3, Boston Red Sox 2.5. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ Dylan Cease FIP: 1.37 | K/9: 15.7
✦ Ranger Suarez FIP: 4.13 | K/9: 6.3
PARLAY
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)
Parlay
· +18.9% edge
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)
❌ Toronto Blue Jays (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays) · ❌ Chicago Cubs (Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres)
PARLAY
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
Parlay
· +20.1% edge
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
❌ Toronto Blue Jays (Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays) · ❌ Los Angeles Angels (Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox)