Daily Betting Report

Thursday, May 07, 2026 · Generated May 07, 2026 at 08:58 AM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 10 games  |  NHL: 1 game  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 1,649 used · 18,351 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Wednesday, May 06 3W–4L $13.43
MLB Houston Astros +1.5 · +20.8% edge
❌ LOST
$7.70
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 12 @ Houston Astros 2. Model projected: Houston Astros 4.3, Los Angeles Dodgers 4.5. Correct side but didn't cover +1.5 (actual margin -10.0).
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Tyler Glasnow: ERA 2.56 vs xFIP 2.88 over 38 IP (severity 0.17) — Los Angeles Dodgers ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Lance McCullers Jr. FIP 4.39 / xFIP 3.85 | K/9: 9.5
NBA Under 214.5 · +19.6% edge
✅ WON
+$7.74
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
Final: Philadelphia 76ers 102 @ New York Knicks 108. Actual total 210 vs line 214.5 (under by 4.5). Model projected 206.9.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
NBA Under 217.5 · +21.3% edge
❌ LOST
$10.35
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
Final: Minnesota Timberwolves 95 @ San Antonio Spurs 133. Actual total 228 vs line 217.5 (over by 10.5). Model projected 209.4.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Colorado Rockies +1.5 · +28.3% edge
❌ LOST
$14.76
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
Final: New York Mets 10 @ Colorado Rockies 5. Model projected: Colorado Rockies 5.1, New York Mets 4.3. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ Freddy Peralta FIP 3.62 / xFIP 3.55 | K/9: 9.9
✦ Michael Lorenzen FIP 4.88 / xFIP 3.88 | K/9: 6.4
NBA Under 213.5 · +17.5% edge
✅ WON
+$6.90
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
Final: Philadelphia 76ers 102 @ New York Knicks 108. Actual total 210 vs line 213.5 (under by 3.5). Model projected 206.9.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
PARLAY New York Knicks (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML) · +26.6% edge
❌ LOST
$4.32
New York Knicks (ML) + Colorado Rockies (ML)
✅ New York Knicks (Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks) · ❌ Colorado Rockies (New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies)
PARLAY New York Knicks (ML) + Under 216.5 · +31.7% edge
✅ WON
+$9.06
New York Knicks (ML) + Under 216.5
✅ New York Knicks (Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks) · ✅ Under 216.5 (Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks)
🏀 NBA 4 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Under 215.5 ↓
NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
HIGH
Mkt 52.3% → Model 70.2% +18.0% edge ▾
Market
52.3%
Model
70.2%
Edge
+18.0%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Detroit Pistons 105 — Cleveland Cavaliers 103
Model expected total: 208.6 vs market line 215.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons OffRtg: 117.8 vs Cleveland Cavaliers DefRtg: 115.4
Cleveland Cavaliers OffRtg: 119.5 vs Detroit Pistons DefRtg: 109.6
Detroit Pistons ↓
NBA  ML  ·  Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
HIGH
Mkt 59.4% → Model 74.0% +14.6% edge ▾
Market
59.4%
Model
74.0%
Edge
+14.6%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Detroit Pistons (+2%)
Rating edge: Detroit Pistons (blended NetRtg diff +7.3)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Detroit Pistons injury impact (-2.2%)
Cleveland Cavaliers injuries benefit Detroit Pistons (+0.8%)
Model projected score: Detroit Pistons 105 — Cleveland Cavaliers 103
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: OffRtg 117.8 | DefRtg 109.6 | NetRtg 8.2
Cleveland Cavaliers: OffRtg 119.5 | DefRtg 115.4 | NetRtg 4.1
Detroit Pistons last 14 days: NetRtg 6.5 | Win% 67%
Cleveland Cavaliers last 14 days: NetRtg -3.5 | Win% 33%
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1 | Cleveland Cavaliers: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Detroit Pistons — Kevin Huerter (G): OUT
⚕ Cleveland Cavaliers — Sam Merrill (G): DAY-TO-DAY
Under 210.5 ↓
NBA Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
HIGH
Mkt 52.0% → Model 61.9% +9.8% edge ▾
Market
52.0%
Model
61.9%
Edge
+9.8%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 105 — Los Angeles Lakers 101
Model expected total: 206.6 vs market line 210.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Oklahoma City Thunder OffRtg: 119.0 vs Los Angeles Lakers DefRtg: 114.6
Los Angeles Lakers OffRtg: 116.3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder DefRtg: 107.9
Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA  ML  ·  Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
MEDIUM
Mkt 86.3% → Model 89.0% +2.7% edge ▾
Market
86.3%
Model
89.0%
Edge
+2.7%
Key Signals
Home court advantage: Oklahoma City Thunder (+2%)
Rating edge: Oklahoma City Thunder (blended NetRtg diff +13.5)
🏆 Playoffs: defensive intensity higher, recent form weighted 55%
Oklahoma City Thunder injury impact (-4.0%)
Los Angeles Lakers injuries benefit Oklahoma City Thunder (+3.6%)
Model projected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 105 — Los Angeles Lakers 101
Research & Stats
Oklahoma City Thunder: OffRtg 119.0 | DefRtg 107.9 | NetRtg 11.1
Los Angeles Lakers: OffRtg 116.3 | DefRtg 114.6 | NetRtg 1.8
Oklahoma City Thunder last 14 days: NetRtg 13.0 | Win% 100%
Los Angeles Lakers last 14 days: NetRtg -3.8 | Win% 40%
Rest days — Oklahoma City Thunder: 1 | Los Angeles Lakers: 1
Playoff adjustment: scoring/pace factors applied to totals model
⚕ Oklahoma City Thunder — Jalen Williams (G): OUT
⚕ Oklahoma City Thunder — Thomas Sorber (C): OUT
⚕ Los Angeles Lakers — Luke Kennard (G): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Los Angeles Lakers — Jarred Vanderbilt (F): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Los Angeles Lakers — Luka Doncic (G): OUT
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Jaylon Tyson
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
HIGH
Over 6.5 55.4% · Model 11.4 · +34.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 6.5
Book Odds
55.4%
Model Proj
11.4
Edge
+34.8%
Draftkings: Over 6.5 at 55.4%. Model projects 11.4.
Key Signals
Market: Over 6.5 at 55.4% (draftkings)
Model projects 11.4 → edge +34.8%
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: role player reduction applied (-12%)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jaylon Tyson: 13.2 PPG / 5.1 RPG / 2.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Marcus Smart
NBA  Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Steals Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 47.6% · Model 2.86 · +31.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
47.6%
Model Proj
2.86
Edge
+31.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 47.6%. Model projects 2.86.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 47.6% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.86 → edge +31.8%
Research & Stats
Los Angeles Lakers: Net RTG +1.8 | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 114.6
Oklahoma City Thunder: Net RTG +11.1 | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 107.9
Marcus Smart: 9.3 PPG / 2.8 RPG / 3.0 APG / 2.86 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
Dennis Schroder
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Assists Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 65.8% · Model 4.4 · +31.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
65.8%
Model Proj
4.4
Edge
+31.5%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 65.8%. Model projects 4.4.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 65.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.4 → edge +31.5%
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Dennis Schroder: 10.8 PPG / 2.7 RPG / 4.9 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jaylon Tyson
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 45.5% · Model 4.6 · +27.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
45.5%
Model Proj
4.6
Edge
+27.8%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 45.5%. Model projects 4.6.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 45.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.6 → edge +27.8%
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jaylon Tyson: 13.2 PPG / 5.1 RPG / 2.2 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jaylin Williams
NBA  Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Over 3.5 51.7% · Model 5.0 · +25.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 3.5
Book Odds
51.7%
Model Proj
5.0
Edge
+25.8%
Draftkings: Over 3.5 at 51.7%. Model projects 5.0.
Key Signals
Market: Over 3.5 at 51.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 5.0 → edge +25.8%
Research & Stats
Oklahoma City Thunder: Net RTG +11.1 | PPG 119.0 | OPPG 107.9
Los Angeles Lakers: Net RTG +1.8 | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 114.6
Jaylin Williams: 7.2 PPG / 5.5 RPG / 2.4 APG / 0.00 SPG / 0.00 BPG / 0.0 3PM (1 games)
Jarrett Allen
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
HIGH
Over 10.5 53.1% · Model 14.4 · +25.4% ▾
Market Line
Over 10.5
Book Odds
53.1%
Model Proj
14.4
Edge
+25.4%
Draftkings: Over 10.5 at 53.1%. Model projects 14.4.
Key Signals
Market: Over 10.5 at 53.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 14.4 → edge +25.4%
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG (below avg)
🏆 Playoffs: starter adjustment applied (-4%)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: Net RTG +4.1 | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 115.4
Detroit Pistons: Net RTG +8.2 | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 109.6
Jarrett Allen: 15.4 PPG / 8.5 RPG / 1.8 APG / 0.00 SPG / 2.12 BPG / 0.0 3PM (40 games)
⚾ MLB 5 picks · 6 props
Singles
▾
Miami Marlins +1.5 ↓
MLB Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins
HIGH
Mkt 63.8% → Model 75.0% +11.2% edge ▾
Market
63.8%
Model
75.0%
Edge
+11.2%
Key Signals
Max Meyer FIP 2.79 / xFIP 3.29 | K/9: 9.7
Cade Povich FIP 5.19 / xFIP 4.22 | K/9: 6.1
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Max Meyer: ERA 2.68 vs xFIP 3.29 over 37 IP (severity 0.33) — Miami Marlins ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 0.94 (pitcher-friendly: loanDepot park)
Baltimore Orioles injury impact (-2.6%)
⚠ Miami Marlins schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Baltimore Orioles schedule load: 8 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Miami Marlins 4.0 — Baltimore Orioles 3.6
Research & Stats
🔵 Max Meyer: ERA 2.68 | FIP 2.79 / xFIP 3.29 | K/9 9.7 | BB/9 3.2 | IP 37
🔴 Cade Povich: ERA 4.41 | FIP 5.19 / xFIP 4.22 | K/9 6.1 | BB/9 2.8 | IP 16
Miami Marlins offense: OPS 0.706 | AVG 0.250 | R/G 4.24
Baltimore Orioles offense: OPS 0.709 | AVG 0.234 | R/G 4.62
Bullpen ERA — Miami Marlins: 4.09 | Baltimore Orioles: 4.88
Venue: loanDepot park — park factor 0.94 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Miami Marlins — Jesus Tinoco (RP): OUT
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Will Robertson (LF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Richard Guasch (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Luis Vazquez (SS): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Baltimore Orioles — Keagan Gillies (P): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Miami): 83°F | Wind 6 mph SSE (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Miami Marlins 4.03 | Baltimore Orioles 3.60
Athletics +1.5 ↓
MLB Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies
HIGH
Mkt 62.0% → Model 70.6% +8.6% edge ▾
Market
62.0%
Model
70.6%
Edge
+8.6%
Key Signals
Andrew Painter FIP 3.54 / xFIP 3.86 | K/9: 8.7
J.T. Ginn FIP 4.85 / xFIP 4.36 | K/9: 7.1
Park factor 1.10 (hitter-friendly: Citizens Bank Park)
Philadelphia Phillies injury impact (-2.3%)
🌡️ Cool (56°F) at Philadelphia — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Philadelphia Phillies schedule load: 8 games in 7 days
⚠ Athletics schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.5 — Athletics 4.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Andrew Painter: ERA 5.28 | FIP 3.54 / xFIP 3.86 | K/9 8.7 | BB/9 2.8 | IP 29
🔴 J.T. Ginn: ERA 4.3 | FIP 4.85 / xFIP 4.36 | K/9 7.1 | BB/9 4.3 | IP 29
Philadelphia Phillies offense: OPS 0.686 | AVG 0.232 | R/G 3.97
Athletics offense: OPS 0.722 | AVG 0.248 | R/G 4.25
Bullpen ERA — Philadelphia Phillies: 4.47 | Athletics: 4.67
Venue: Citizens Bank Park — park factor 1.10 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Christian McGowan (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Rene Pinto (C): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Daniel Robert (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Keaton Anthony (1B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Andrew Bechtold (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Philadelphia Phillies — Mark Kolozsvary (C): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Philadelphia): 56°F | Wind 6 mph NNW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Philadelphia Phillies 4.53 | Athletics 4.53
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
MLB Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
HIGH
Mkt 59.7% → Model 68.2% +8.4% edge ▾
Market
59.7%
Model
68.2%
Edge
+8.4%
Key Signals
Seth Lugo FIP 2.69 / xFIP 3.71 | K/9: 7.7
Slade Cecconi FIP 5.67 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9: 7.2
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Seth Lugo: ERA 2.68 vs xFIP 3.71 over 43 IP (severity 0.47) — Kansas City Royals ML may be overpriced by market
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-5.0%)
🌬️ Cross wind 13 mph (WSW) at Kansas City — minimal scoring impact
🌡️ Cool (56°F) at Kansas City — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Cleveland Guardians schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Kansas City Royals 4.2 — Cleveland Guardians 3.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Seth Lugo: ERA 2.68 | FIP 2.69 / xFIP 3.71 | K/9 7.7 | BB/9 2.7 | IP 43
🔴 Slade Cecconi: ERA 6.56 | FIP 5.67 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9 7.2 | BB/9 3.3 | IP 35
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.703 | AVG 0.238 | R/G 4.11
Cleveland Guardians offense: OPS 0.690 | AVG 0.229 | R/G 4.05
Bullpen ERA — Kansas City Royals: 4.25 | Cleveland Guardians: 3.98
Venue: Kauffman Stadium — neutral park
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Cole Ragans (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Noah Cameron (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cleveland Guardians — Carlos Hernandez (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Nic Lentz (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Kansas City): 56°F | Wind 13 mph WSW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Kansas City Royals 4.21 | Cleveland Guardians 3.83
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Under 9.5
MLB Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
HIGH
Mkt 50.3% → Model 58.5% +8.2% edge ▾
Market
50.3%
Model
58.5%
Edge
+8.2%
Key Signals
Seth Lugo FIP 2.69 / xFIP 3.71 | K/9: 7.7
Slade Cecconi FIP 5.67 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9: 7.2
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Seth Lugo: ERA 2.68 vs xFIP 3.71 over 43 IP (severity 0.47) — Kansas City Royals ML may be overpriced by market
Kansas City Royals injury impact (-5.0%)
🌬️ Cross wind 13 mph (WSW) at Kansas City — minimal scoring impact
🌡️ Cool (56°F) at Kansas City — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Kansas City Royals schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Cleveland Guardians schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Kansas City Royals 4.2 — Cleveland Guardians 3.8
Model expected total: 8.0 vs line 9.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Seth Lugo: ERA 2.68 | FIP 2.69 / xFIP 3.71 | K/9 7.7 | BB/9 2.7 | IP 43
🔴 Slade Cecconi: ERA 6.56 | FIP 5.67 / xFIP 4.12 | K/9 7.2 | BB/9 3.3 | IP 35
Kansas City Royals offense: OPS 0.703 | AVG 0.238 | R/G 4.11
Cleveland Guardians offense: OPS 0.690 | AVG 0.229 | R/G 4.05
Bullpen ERA — Kansas City Royals: 4.25 | Cleveland Guardians: 3.98
Venue: Kauffman Stadium — neutral park
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Cole Ragans (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Noah Cameron (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Tyson Guerrero (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Anthony Simonelli (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Kansas City Royals — Javier Vaz (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Cleveland Guardians — Carlos Hernandez (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Nic Lentz (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Kansas City): 56°F | Wind 13 mph WSW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Kansas City Royals 4.21 | Cleveland Guardians 3.83
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
HIGH
Mkt 62.3% → Model 69.6% +7.3% edge ▾
Market
62.3%
Model
69.6%
Edge
+7.3%
Key Signals
Zac Gallen FIP 3.7 / xFIP 4.35 | K/9: 5.6
Mitch Keller FIP 2.88 / xFIP 4.15 | K/9: 6.8
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Mitch Keller: ERA 2.85 vs xFIP 4.15 over 41 IP (severity 0.63) — Pittsburgh Pirates ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly: Chase Field)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-3.9%)
Pittsburgh Pirates injury impact (-3.9%)
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Pittsburgh Pirates schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates 4.4
Research & Stats
🔵 Zac Gallen: ERA 4.45 | FIP 3.7 / xFIP 4.35 | K/9 5.6 | BB/9 2.8 | IP 32
🔴 Mitch Keller: ERA 2.85 | FIP 2.88 / xFIP 4.15 | K/9 6.8 | BB/9 2.6 | IP 41
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.708 | AVG 0.244 | R/G 4.54
Pittsburgh Pirates offense: OPS 0.720 | AVG 0.247 | R/G 4.89
Bullpen ERA — Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.80 | Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.75
Venue: Chase Field — park factor 1.01 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Sean Sullivan (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Dominic Fletcher (RF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Anthony Solometo (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Mike Clevinger (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Pittsburgh Pirates — Oddanier Mosqueda (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
Model expected runs: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.48 | Pittsburgh Pirates 4.44
📊 Not in today's top 5 budget allocation
Props
▾
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 40.8% · Model 3.63 · +47.1% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
40.8%
Model Proj
3.63
Edge
+47.1%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 40.8%. Model: 3.63.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 40.8% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.63 → edge +47.1%
vs Mitch Keller (FIP 2.88) at Chase Field (park factor 1.01)
Research & Stats
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.364 | OBP 0.386 | H/G 1.43 | TB/G 2.46 | HR/G 0.214 | HRR/G 2.89 (116 PA)
Facing Mitch Keller: FIP 2.88
Park factor 1.01 at Chase Field
Elly De La Cruz
MLB  Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 50.5% · Model 3.94 · +45.9% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
50.5%
Model Proj
3.94
Edge
+45.9%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 50.5%. Model: 3.94.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 50.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.94 → edge +45.9%
vs Shota Imanaga (FIP 2.79) at Wrigley Field (park factor 1.03)
Research & Stats
Elly De La Cruz: AVG 0.267 | OBP 0.341 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 2.03 | HR/G 0.270 | HRR/G 2.54 (164 PA)
Facing Shota Imanaga: FIP 2.79
Park factor 1.03 at Wrigley Field
Elly De La Cruz
MLB  Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · Total Bases Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 43.1% · Model 3.14 · +42.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
43.1%
Model Proj
3.14
Edge
+42.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 43.1%. Model: 3.14.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 43.1% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.14 → edge +42.8%
vs Shota Imanaga (FIP 2.79) at Wrigley Field (park factor 1.03)
Research & Stats
Elly De La Cruz: AVG 0.267 | OBP 0.341 | H/G 1.05 | TB/G 2.03 | HR/G 0.270 | HRR/G 2.54 (164 PA)
Facing Shota Imanaga: FIP 2.79
Park factor 1.03 at Wrigley Field
Jake Burger
MLB  Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 46.7% · Model 2.97 · +42.5% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
46.7%
Model Proj
2.97
Edge
+42.5%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 46.7%. Model: 2.97.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 46.7% (draftkings)
Model projects 2.97 → edge +42.5%
vs Paul Blackburn (FIP 2.77) at Yankee Stadium (park factor 1.07)
Research & Stats
Jake Burger: AVG 0.218 | OBP 0.253 | H/G 0.86 | TB/G 1.50 | HR/G 0.167 | HRR/G 1.83 (150 PA)
Facing Paul Blackburn: FIP 2.77
Park factor 1.07 at Yankee Stadium
Sal Stewart
MLB  Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 53.9% · Model 3.48 · +41.8% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
53.9%
Model Proj
3.48
Edge
+41.8%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 53.9%. Model: 3.48.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 53.9% (draftkings)
Model projects 3.48 → edge +41.7%
vs Shota Imanaga (FIP 2.79) at Wrigley Field (park factor 1.03)
Research & Stats
Sal Stewart: AVG 0.245 | OBP 0.331 | H/G 0.92 | TB/G 1.81 | HR/G 0.243 | HRR/G 2.24 (160 PA)
Facing Shota Imanaga: FIP 2.79
Park factor 1.03 at Wrigley Field
Ildemaro Vargas
MLB  Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · HRR Over
HIGH
Over 1.5 53.5% · Model 4.26 · +41.6% ▾
Market Line
Over 1.5
Book Odds
53.5%
Model Proj
4.26
Edge
+41.6%
Draftkings: Over 1.5 at 53.5%. Model: 4.26.
Key Signals
Market: Over 1.5 at 53.5% (draftkings)
Model projects 4.26 → edge +41.6%
vs Mitch Keller (FIP 2.88) at Chase Field (park factor 1.01)
Research & Stats
Ildemaro Vargas: AVG 0.364 | OBP 0.386 | H/G 1.43 | TB/G 2.46 | HR/G 0.214 | HRR/G 2.89 (116 PA)
Facing Mitch Keller: FIP 2.88
Park factor 1.01 at Chase Field
🏒 NHL 1 pick · watchlist only
Singles
▾
Carolina Hurricanes
NHL  ML  ·  Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers
MEDIUM
Mkt 59.7% → Model 86.4% +26.7% edge ▾
Market
59.7%
Model
86.4%
Edge
+26.7%
Key Signals
⚠ NHL stats unavailable — using market baseline only
Home ice advantage: Philadelphia Flyers (+2%)
Rating edge: Carolina Hurricanes (blended goal-diff -1.62)
🏆 Playoffs: recent form weighted 55%, tighter defence expected
Philadelphia Flyers injury impact (-5.4%)
Research & Stats
Philadelphia Flyers last 14 days: NetRtg -1.20 | Win% 20%
Carolina Hurricanes last 14 days: NetRtg 1.75 | Win% 100%
Rest days — Philadelphia Flyers: 3 | Carolina Hurricanes: 3
⚕ Philadelphia Flyers — Owen Tippett (RW): OUT
⚕ Philadelphia Flyers — Noah Cates (LW): OUT
⚕ Philadelphia Flyers — Nikita Grebenkin (RW): OUT
🔭 Watchlist only — not tracked in performance tables until NHL testing is complete.
Budget Allocation top 5 picks · 2 parlays
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Under 215.5 ↑
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
+18.0%
—
 16
8.7%
$8.68
+$7.32
Robinhood Action — Under 215.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.3
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.68
Profit if win+$7.32
Loss if lose-$8.68
Expected value +$2.56
2
Detroit Pistons (ML) ↑
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
+14.6%
—
 13
8.0%
$7.99
+$5.01
Robinhood Action — Detroit Pistons (ML)
Contract price (est.)¢59.4
Buy contracts13
Total cost (incl. commission)$7.99
Profit if win+$5.01
Loss if lose-$7.99
Expected value +$1.63
3
Miami Marlins +1.5 ↑
MLB
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins
+11.2%
—
 10
6.6%
$6.58
+$3.42
Robinhood Action — Miami Marlins +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢63.8
Buy contracts10
Total cost (incl. commission)$6.58
Profit if win+$3.42
Loss if lose-$6.58
Expected value +$0.92
4
Under 210.5 ↑
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
+9.8%
—
 7
3.8%
$3.78
+$3.22
Robinhood Action — Under 210.5
Contract price (est.)¢52.0
Buy contracts7
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.78
Profit if win+$3.22
Loss if lose-$3.78
Expected value +$0.55
5
Athletics +1.5 ↑
MLB
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies
+8.6%
—
 7
4.5%
$4.48
+$2.52
Robinhood Action — Athletics +1.5
Contract price (est.)¢62.0
Buy contracts7
Total cost (incl. commission)$4.48
Profit if win+$2.52
Loss if lose-$4.48
Expected value +$0.46
P1
Detroit Pistons (ML) + Under 215.5
Parlay
+20.9%
—
 10
3.3%
$3.31
+$6.69
Robinhood Action — Detroit Pistons (ML) + Under 215.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢31.1
Buy contracts10
Total cost (incl. commission)$3.31
Profit if win+$6.69
P2
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 + Under 9.5
Parlay
+9.8%
—
 4
1.3%
$1.28
+$2.72
Robinhood Action — Cleveland Guardians +1.5 + Under 9.5
Parlay contract price (est.)¢30.0
Buy contracts4
Total cost (incl. commission)$1.28
Profit if win+$2.72
Deployed $36.10 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $63.90
Props Model Accuracy
Hit Rate vs Actuals
Props Settled
121
Model Hit Rate
45.5%
Avg Error
-1.7
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 31 29.0% 23.8 20.0 -3.8
Rebounds 23 47.8% 10.7 9.5 -1.2
Assists 9 33.3% 9.1 7.4 -1.6
Strikeouts 21 47.6% 6.2 5.0 -1.1
Hits 24 75.0% 1.0 1.3 +0.3
HRR 9 33.3% 3.9 1.0 -2.9
Total Bases 3 33.3% 4.2 1.7 -2.5
Hits 1 0.0% 2.8 1.0 -1.8
HIGH confidence
45.8%
33H / 39M (72 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
44.9%
22H / 27M (49 settled)
By League
MLB
27.3%
3H / 8M (11 settled)
Avg err: -2.6
NBA
11.1%
1H / 8M (9 settled)
Avg err: -5.2
▶ Hit Rate Trend (121 settled props)
Rolling Hit Rate (last 20 props)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-01 05-06
Model Performance
Record
44W–34L
Win Rate
56.4%
Total PnL
$+114.59
ROI
17.0%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
42W–33L (56.0%)
$+122.18
MEDIUM
2W–1L (66.7%)
$-7.59
NBA
14W–7L (66.7%)
$+57.33
MLB
21W–15L (58.3%)
$+16.81
PARLAYS
9W–12L (42.9%)
$+40.45
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (79 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+114.59 total
$+137 $0 $-54 04-25 05-01 05-06
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 05-01 05-06
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 9 57.5% 50.0% -7.5%
15%+ 67 69.2% 55.2% -14.0%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.