Daily Betting Report

Friday, May 01, 2026 · Generated May 01, 2026 at 08:58 AM PDT
NBA: 3 games  |  MLB: 15 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 6 used · 19,994 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Thursday, April 30 4W–3L +$23.40
NBA New York Knicks -2.5 Spread · +32.8% edge
✅ WON
+$14.27
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
Final: New York Knicks 140 @ Atlanta Hawks 89. Model win probability: 83.3%. Actual margin -51 (needed -2.5).
✦ Atlanta Hawks injury impact (-4.0%)
✦ New York Knicks injuries benefit Atlanta Hawks (+0.8%)
NBA Under 224.5 Total · +29.2% edge
✅ WON
+$12.32
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Final: Denver Nuggets 98 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 110. Actual total 208 vs line 224.5 (under by 16.5). Model projected 212.8.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Colorado Rockies Moneyline · +22.4% edge
❌ LOST
$8.50
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
Final: Colorado Rockies 4 @ Cincinnati Reds 6. Model projected: Cincinnati Reds 4.5, Colorado Rockies 5.1. Actual margin reversed model's projection.
✦ 🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing OUT (NNW) at Cincinnati — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
✦ Andrew Abbott FIP 5.08 / xFIP 4.71 | K/9: 6.1
NBA Under 212.5 Total · +20.5% edge
✅ WON
+$8.32
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
Final: Boston Celtics 93 @ Philadelphia 76ers 106. Actual total 199 vs line 212.5 (under by 13.5). Model projected 204.8.
✦ Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
MLB Houston Astros Moneyline · +18.6% edge
✅ WON
+$8.44
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
Final: Houston Astros 11 @ Baltimore Orioles 5. Model projected: Baltimore Orioles 4.4, Houston Astros 5.2. Model's directional call was correct.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Brandon Young: ERA 2.53 vs xFIP 4.24 over 10 IP (severity 1.49) — Baltimore Orioles ML may be overpriced by market
✦ 🌬️ Wind 11 mph blowing OUT (NW) at Baltimore — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
PARLAY New York Knicks (Moneyline) + Boston Celtics (Moneyline) Parlay · +35.0% edge
❌ LOST
$6.91
New York Knicks (Moneyline) + Boston Celtics (Moneyline)
✅ New York Knicks (New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks) · ❌ Boston Celtics (Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers)
PARLAY New York Knicks -2.5 (Spread) + Under 213.5 (Total) Parlay · +28.8% edge
❌ LOST
$4.54
New York Knicks -2.5 (Spread) + Under 213.5 (Total)
✅ New York Knicks -2.5 (New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks) · ❌ Under 213.5 (New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks)
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Under 218.5 ↓
NBA  Total  ·  Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors
🕐 4:40 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 52.5% → Model 78.7% +26.2% edge ▾
Market
52.5%
Model
78.7%
Edge
+26.2%
Key Signals
Model projected score: Toronto Raptors 104 — Cleveland Cavaliers 104
Model expected total: 208.2 vs market line 218.5
Combined pace: 96.0 possessions/game
Research & Stats
Toronto Raptors OffRtg: 114.6 vs Cleveland Cavaliers DefRtg: 115.4
Cleveland Cavaliers OffRtg: 119.5 vs Toronto Raptors DefRtg: 111.8
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.5
Buy contracts24
Total cost (incl. commission)$13.08
Profit if win+$10.92
Loss if lose-$13.08
Expected value +$5.80
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
🕐 6:39 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 58.2% → Model 83.6% +25.4% edge ▾
Market
58.2%
Model
83.6%
Edge
+25.4%
Key Signals
Walbert Urena FIP 4.73 / xFIP 4.73 | K/9: 10.5
Christian Scott FIP 15.02 / xFIP 18.56 | K/9: 8.2
Park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly: Angel Stadium)
Los Angeles Angels injury impact (-1.4%)
New York Mets injury impact (-5.0%)
⚠ Los Angeles Angels schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ New York Mets schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Los Angeles Angels 4.9 — New York Mets 3.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Walbert Urena: ERA 4.76 | FIP 4.73 / xFIP 4.73 | K/9 10.5 | BB/9 8.1 | IP 11
🔴 Christian Scott: ERA 6.75 | FIP 15.02 / xFIP 18.56 | K/9 8.2 | BB/9 40.9 | IP 1
Los Angeles Angels offense: OPS 0.730 | AVG 0.236 | R/G 4.69
New York Mets offense: OPS 0.631 | AVG 0.227 | R/G 3.42
Bullpen ERA — Los Angeles Angels: 4.61 | New York Mets: 4.17
Venue: Angel Stadium — park factor 0.99 (pitcher-friendly)
⚕ Los Angeles Angels — Yusei Kikuchi (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Jose Rojas (3B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Nick Burdi (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Joe Jacques (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Kevin Herget (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Mike Tauchman (RF): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Nate Lavender (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ New York Mets — Robert Stock (RP): OUT
⚕ New York Mets — Grae Kessinger (3B): OUT
🌤 Weather (Anaheim): 62°F | Wind 5 mph SSE (blowing in) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Los Angeles Angels 4.92 | New York Mets 3.77
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢58.2
Buy contracts24
Total cost (incl. commission)$14.44
Profit if win+$9.56
Loss if lose-$14.44
Expected value +$5.63
Houston Astros ↓
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
🕐 4:11 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 47.0% → Model 71.5% +24.5% edge ▾
Market
47.0%
Model
71.5%
Edge
+24.5%
Key Signals
Mike Burrows FIP 5.16 / xFIP 3.57 | K/9: 9.5
Park factor 1.08 (hitter-friendly: Fenway Park)
Boston Red Sox injury impact (-1.6%)
🌬️ Wind 10 mph blowing OUT (NW) at Boston — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
🌡️ Cool (54°F) at Boston — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
⚠ Boston Red Sox schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Boston Red Sox 3.8 — Houston Astros 5.3
Research & Stats
🔵 TBD (home): stats unavailable
🔴 Mike Burrows: ERA 6.25 | FIP 5.16 / xFIP 3.57 | K/9 9.5 | BB/9 3.5 | IP 31
Boston Red Sox offense: OPS 0.660 | AVG 0.231 | R/G 3.97
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.784 | AVG 0.265 | R/G 5.25
Bullpen ERA — Boston Red Sox: 4.35 | Houston Astros: 6.08
Venue: Fenway Park — park factor 1.08 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Brendan Rodgers (2B): OUT
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Hobie Harris (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Boston): 54°F | Wind 10 mph NW (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Boston Red Sox 3.81 | Houston Astros 5.29
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢47.0
Buy contracts22
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.77
Profit if win+$11.23
Loss if lose-$10.77
Expected value +$4.95
Over 7.0 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
🕐 11:21 AM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 50.8% → Model 70.5% +19.7% edge ▾
Market
50.8%
Model
70.5%
Edge
+19.7%
Key Signals
Colin Rea FIP 3.86 / xFIP 3.62 | K/9: 8.0
Zac Gallen FIP 3.66 / xFIP 4.31 | K/9: 5.4
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Zac Gallen: ERA 3.14 vs xFIP 4.31 over 28 IP (severity 0.76) — Arizona Diamondbacks ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly: Wrigley Field)
Chicago Cubs injury impact (-2.1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-3.9%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Mike Muchlinski: high-scoring games (run factor 1.06x avg) — leans Over
👨‍⚖️ Mike Muchlinski: tight strike zone (K factor 0.94x avg) — favors hitters / walks up
🌡️ Cold (45°F) at Chicago — ball doesn't carry, Under lean (−0.5 runs)
⚠ Chicago Cubs schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 5 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago Cubs 5.1 — Arizona Diamondbacks 4.4
Model expected total: 9.4 vs line 7.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Colin Rea: ERA 4.61 | FIP 3.86 / xFIP 3.62 | K/9 8.0 | BB/9 3.0 | IP 27
🔴 Zac Gallen: ERA 3.14 | FIP 3.66 / xFIP 4.31 | K/9 5.4 | BB/9 2.2 | IP 28
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.780 | AVG 0.261 | R/G 5.45
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.726 | AVG 0.250 | R/G 4.70
Bullpen ERA — Chicago Cubs: 4.01 | Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.99
Venue: Wrigley Field — park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jaxon Wiggins (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Brandon Birdsell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jeff Brigham (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Mike Muchlinski — run factor 1.06x | K factor 0.94x | Tight zone, favors hitters
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 45°F | Wind 9 mph N (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Chicago Cubs 5.07 | Arizona Diamondbacks 4.36
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢50.8
Buy contracts17
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.97
Profit if win+$8.03
Loss if lose-$8.97
Expected value +$3.02
Over 11.0 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
🕐 5:41 PM PDT
HIGH
Mkt 51.5% → Model 68.5% +17.0% edge ▾
Market
51.5%
Model
68.5%
Edge
+17.0%
Key Signals
Jose Quintana FIP 6.9 / xFIP 5.97 | K/9: 4.5
Grant Holmes FIP 4.98 / xFIP 4.49 | K/9: 7.0
⚠ ERA trap [SEVERE] — Jose Quintana: ERA 4.91 vs xFIP 5.97 over 18 IP (severity 0.82) — Colorado Rockies ML may be overpriced by market
⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Grant Holmes: ERA 3.62 vs xFIP 4.49 over 32 IP (severity 0.52) — Atlanta Braves ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly: Coors Field)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
🌡️ Cold (41°F) at Denver — ball doesn't carry, Under lean (−0.5 runs)
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Atlanta Braves schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Colorado Rockies 6.0 — Atlanta Braves 7.2
Model expected total: 13.2 vs line 11.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Jose Quintana: ERA 4.91 | FIP 6.9 / xFIP 5.97 | K/9 4.5 | BB/9 5.5 | IP 18
🔴 Grant Holmes: ERA 3.62 | FIP 4.98 / xFIP 4.49 | K/9 7.0 | BB/9 3.9 | IP 32
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.725 | AVG 0.254 | R/G 4.28
Atlanta Braves offense: OPS 0.785 | AVG 0.271 | R/G 5.53
Bullpen ERA — Colorado Rockies: 4.19 | Atlanta Braves: 3.12
Venue: Coors Field — park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Michael Harris II (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Blake Burkhalter (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
🌤 Weather (Denver): 41°F | Wind 2 mph NNW (cross wind) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Colorado Rockies 5.97 | Atlanta Braves 7.20
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢51.5
Buy contracts15
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.03
Profit if win+$6.97
Loss if lose-$8.03
Expected value +$2.25
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 48.9% · Edge: +26.9%
HIGH
Houston Astros (Moneyline)
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox · Model: 71.5% · Edge: +24.5%
Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline)
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels · Model: 68.4% · Edge: +21.7%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢21.9
Buy contracts17
Total cost$4.07
Profit if win+$12.93
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 33.8% · Edge: +12.7%
HIGH
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins · Model: 60.2% · Edge: +10.4%
Chicago White Sox (Moneyline)
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres · Model: 56.2% · Edge: +13.9%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢21.1
Buy contracts7
Total cost$1.62
Profit if win+$5.38
Props Watchlist — model projections only. No sportsbook line available. Search Robinhood manually before betting.
Jalen Duren
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 10.5 · Bet Over ≤ 10 ▾
Projected
10.5
Bet Over ≤
10
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Jalen Duren rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 10.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 10.
Key Signals
Jalen Duren averages 10.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 101.6 | OPPG 102.2 | Win% 40%
Model projected team pts: 110.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Cade Cunningham
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Assists Over
HIGH
Proj 9.9 · Bet Over ≤ 9 ▾
Projected
9.9
Bet Over ≤
9
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Cade Cunningham assists' on Robinhood. Model line: 9.9 APG season avg. Look for Over at or below 9.
Key Signals
Cade Cunningham averages 9.9 assists/game this season
High-scoring expected game supports assist volume
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 101.6 | OPPG 102.2 | Win% 40%
Model projected team pts: 110.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Donovan Mitchell
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 29.3 · Bet Over ≤ 29 ▾
Projected
29.3
Bet Over ≤
29
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Donovan Mitchell points' on Robinhood. Model line: 29.3 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 29.
Key Signals
Donovan Mitchell season avg: 27.9 PPG
Toronto Raptors allows 111.8 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 111.8 (opp) | Net +4.1
Toronto Raptors: 46W-36L | Net +2.8
Cleveland Cavaliers recent (14d): PPG 111.8 | OPPG 111.4 | Win% 60%
Model projected team pts: 114.1 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Cleveland Cavaliers: 1d | Toronto Raptors: 1d
Cade Cunningham
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 25.2 · Bet Over ≤ 25 ▾
Projected
25.2
Bet Over ≤
25
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Cade Cunningham points' on Robinhood. Model line: 25.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 25.
Key Signals
Cade Cunningham season avg: 23.9 PPG
Orlando Magic allows 115.1 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 101.6 | OPPG 102.2 | Win% 40%
Model projected team pts: 110.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Austin Reaves
NBA  Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 24.4 · Bet Over ≤ 24 ▾
Projected
24.4
Bet Over ≤
24
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Austin Reaves points' on Robinhood. Model line: 24.4 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 24.
Key Signals
Austin Reaves season avg: 23.3 PPG
Houston Rockets allows 110.0 PPG — average defense
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Los Angeles Lakers: 53W-29L | PPG 116.3 | OPPG 110.0 (opp) | Net +1.8
Houston Rockets: 52W-30L | Net +5.2
Los Angeles Lakers recent (14d): PPG 101.8 | OPPG 102.8 | Win% 60%
Model projected team pts: 108.6 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Los Angeles Lakers: 1d | Houston Rockets: 1d
Paolo Banchero
NBA  Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 22.2 · Bet Over ≤ 22 ▾
Projected
22.2
Bet Over ≤
22
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Paolo Banchero points' on Robinhood. Model line: 22.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 22.
Key Signals
Paolo Banchero season avg: 22.2 PPG
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG — average defense
🏆 Playoffs: tighter defense — verify line carefully
Research & Stats
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | PPG 115.7 | OPPG 109.6 (opp) | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic recent (14d): PPG 102.2 | OPPG 101.6 | Win% 60%
Model projected team pts: 108.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Orlando Magic: 1d | Detroit Pistons: 1d
Shohei Ohtani
MLB  Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Shohei Ohtani hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Matthew Liberatore (FIP 6.49).
Key Signals
Shohei Ohtani: .273 AVG / .406 OBP this season (139 PA)
Matthew Liberatore FIP 6.49 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.2 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Matthew Liberatore: ERA 4.75 | FIP 6.49 | xFIP 4.76 | K/9 5.7 | BB/9 3.3 | HR/9 2.39
Season IP: 30 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Busch Stadium (park factor 0.98)
Opponent K%: 20.8% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.49 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.2 hits in 5.5 inn
Max Muncy
MLB  Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Max Muncy hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Matthew Liberatore (FIP 6.49).
Key Signals
Max Muncy: .287 AVG / .374 OBP this season (115 PA)
Matthew Liberatore FIP 6.49 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.2 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Matthew Liberatore: ERA 4.75 | FIP 6.49 | xFIP 4.76 | K/9 5.7 | BB/9 3.3 | HR/9 2.39
Season IP: 30 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Busch Stadium (park factor 0.98)
Opponent K%: 20.8% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.49 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.2 hits in 5.5 inn
Andy Pages
MLB  Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Andy Pages hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Matthew Liberatore (FIP 6.49).
Key Signals
Andy Pages: .321 AVG / .366 OBP this season (123 PA)
Matthew Liberatore FIP 6.49 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.2 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Matthew Liberatore: ERA 4.75 | FIP 6.49 | xFIP 4.76 | K/9 5.7 | BB/9 3.3 | HR/9 2.39
Season IP: 30 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Busch Stadium (park factor 0.98)
Opponent K%: 20.8% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.49 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.2 hits in 5.5 inn
Randy Arozarena
MLB  Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Randy Arozarena hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Cole Ragans (FIP 6.13).
Key Signals
Randy Arozarena: .289 AVG / .381 OBP this season (134 PA)
Cole Ragans FIP 6.13 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.4 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Cole Ragans: ERA 5.00 | FIP 6.13 | xFIP 3.91 | K/9 11.0 | BB/9 6.0 | HR/9 2.33
Season IP: 27 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: T-Mobile Park (park factor 0.93)
Opponent K%: 23.7% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.13 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.4 hits in 5.5 inn
J.P. Crawford
MLB  Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'J.P. Crawford hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Cole Ragans (FIP 6.13).
Key Signals
J.P. Crawford: .200 AVG / .366 OBP this season (101 PA)
Cole Ragans FIP 6.13 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.4 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Cole Ragans: ERA 5.00 | FIP 6.13 | xFIP 3.91 | K/9 11.0 | BB/9 6.0 | HR/9 2.33
Season IP: 27 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: T-Mobile Park (park factor 0.93)
Opponent K%: 23.7% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.13 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.4 hits in 5.5 inn
Cole Young
MLB  Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Cole Young hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Cole Ragans (FIP 6.13).
Key Signals
Cole Young: .286 AVG / .357 OBP this season (126 PA)
Cole Ragans FIP 6.13 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.4 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Cole Ragans: ERA 5.00 | FIP 6.13 | xFIP 3.91 | K/9 11.0 | BB/9 6.0 | HR/9 2.33
Season IP: 27 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: T-Mobile Park (park factor 0.93)
Opponent K%: 23.7% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 6.13 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.4 hits in 5.5 inn
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Under 218.5 (Total) ↑
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors
4:40 PM PDT
+26.2%
—
 24
13.1%
$13.08
+$10.92
2
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
6:39 PM PDT
+25.4%
—
 24
14.4%
$14.44
+$9.56
3
Houston Astros (Moneyline) ↑
MLB
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
4:11 PM PDT
+24.5%
—
 22
10.8%
$10.77
+$11.23
4
Over 7.0 (Total) ↑
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
11:21 AM PDT
+19.7%
—
 17
9.0%
$8.97
+$8.03
5
Over 11.0 (Total) ↑
MLB
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
5:41 PM PDT
+17.0%
—
 15
8.0%
$8.03
+$6.97
P1
Houston Astros (Moneyline) + Los Angeles Angels (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox / New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
+26.9%
—
 17
4.1%
$4.07
+$12.93
P2
Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline) + Chicago White Sox (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins / Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres
+12.7%
—
 7
1.6%
$1.62
+$5.38
Deployed $60.98 / $100
Reserve (do not force bets) $39.02
Props Model Accuracy — how often the model's projection exceeded the actual stat
Props Settled
57
Model Hit Rate
43.9%
Avg Error
-1.8
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 13 23.1% 27.0 22.8 -4.3
Rebounds 14 50.0% 11.6 10.3 -1.3
Assists 6 33.3% 9.9 8.5 -1.4
Strikeouts 14 35.7% 6.0 4.4 -1.7
Hits 10 80.0% 1.0 1.5 +0.5
HIGH confidence
55.6%
15H / 12M (27 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
33.3%
10H / 20M (30 settled)
Model Performance
Record
18W–18L
Win Rate
50.0%
Total PnL
$+28.90
ROI
8.2%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
17W–17L (50.0%)
$+43.68
MEDIUM
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-14.78
NBA
8W–3L (72.7%)
$+43.87
MLB
7W–9L (43.8%)
$-32.11
PARLAY
3W–6L (33.3%)
$+17.14
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (36 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+28.90 total
$+40 $0 $-54 04-25 04-28 04-30
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-28 04-30
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 2 49.2% 0.0% -49.2%
15%+ 31 72.6% 48.4% -24.2%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
For informational purposes only. Verify all contract prices on Robinhood before placing bets — prices shown are estimates based on DraftKings market odds. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.