Daily Betting Report

Sunday, May 03, 2026 · Generated May 03, 2026 at 10:29 AM PDT
NBA: 2 games  |  MLB: 14 games  |  Budget: $100
🔑 Odds API — 48 used · 19,952 remaining
📊 Yesterday's Results — Saturday, May 02 5W–2L–1P +$17.04
MLB Over 9.5 Total · +11.1% edge
✅ WON
+$3.68
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Final: Atlanta Braves 9 @ Colorado Rockies 1.
MLB Over 7.0 Total · +15.2% edge
❌ LOST
$6.87
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Final: Arizona Diamondbacks 0 @ Chicago Cubs 2. Model projected: Chicago Cubs 4.9, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.0. Actual total 2 vs line 7.0 (under by 5.0). Model projected 8.9.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Shota Imanaga: ERA 2.88 vs xFIP 3.44 over 34 IP (severity 0.32) — Chicago Cubs ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Shota Imanaga FIP 2.91 / xFIP 3.44 | K/9: 10.0
MLB Chicago White Sox +1.5 Spread · +15.8% edge
✅ WON
+$5.95
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres
Final: Chicago White Sox 4 @ San Diego Padres 0. Model projected: San Diego Padres 3.8, Chicago White Sox 3.7. Won despite model margin miss — market overpriced the favourite.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Michael King: ERA 2.41 vs xFIP 3.68 over 33 IP (severity 0.74) — San Diego Padres ML may be overpriced by market
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Sean Burke: ERA 3.21 vs xFIP 3.87 over 33 IP (severity 0.39) — Chicago White Sox ML may be overpriced by market
MLB Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Spread · +15.8% edge
✅ WON
+$5.46
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
Final: New York Mets 3 @ Los Angeles Angels 4. Model projected: Los Angeles Angels 3.4, New York Mets 3.0. Covered +1.5 — actual margin +1.0.
✦ Reid Detmers FIP 3.02 / xFIP 3.25 | K/9: 9.8
✦ Nolan McLean FIP 2.23 / xFIP 2.38 | K/9: 11.5
MLB Cleveland Guardians +1.5 Spread · +19.6% edge
✅ WON
+$6.87
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
Final: Cleveland Guardians 14 @ Athletics 6. Model projected: Athletics 4.5, Cleveland Guardians 5.3. Covered +1.5 — actual margin -8.0.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Jacob Lopez: ERA 5.84 vs xFIP 6.25 over 24 IP (severity 0.29) — Athletics ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Jacob Lopez FIP 6.46 / xFIP 6.25 | K/9: 6.7
PARLAY Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Spread) + Under 8.0 (Total) Parlay · +16.0% edge
✅ WON
+$4.66
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Spread) + Under 8.0 (Total)
✅ Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels) · ✅ Under 8.0 (New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels)
PARLAY Boston Celtics (Moneyline) + Cleveland Guardians (Moneyline) Parlay · +18.1% edge
❌ LOST
$2.71
Boston Celtics (Moneyline) + Cleveland Guardians (Moneyline)
❌ Boston Celtics (Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics) · ✅ Cleveland Guardians (Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics)
MLB Over 10.0 Total · +11.1% edge
➡ PUSH
+$0.00
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Final: Atlanta Braves 9 @ Colorado Rockies 1. Model projected: Colorado Rockies 5.1, Atlanta Braves 6.3. Actual total 10 vs line 10.0 (under by 0.0). Model projected 11.4.
✦ ⚠ ERA trap [MODERATE] — Chris Sale: ERA 2.31 vs xFIP 3.06 over 35 IP (severity 0.42) — Atlanta Braves ML may be overpriced by market
✦ Chris Sale FIP 3.66 / xFIP 3.06 | K/9: 9.8
Singles (top 5 by edge)
Houston Astros ↓
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
HIGH
Mkt 38.5% → Model 61.3% +22.8% edge ▾
Market
38.5%
Model
61.3%
Edge
+22.8%
Key Signals
Ranger Suarez FIP 3.43 / xFIP 3.73 | K/9: 7.5
Cody Bolton FIP 4.85 / xFIP 4.71 | K/9: 10.9
⚠ ERA trap [MILD] — Ranger Suarez: ERA 3.09 vs xFIP 3.73 over 35 IP (severity 0.36) — Boston Red Sox ML may be overpriced by market
Park factor 1.08 (hitter-friendly: Fenway Park)
Boston Red Sox injury impact (-1.6%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Laz Diaz: low-scoring games (run factor 0.94x avg) — leans Under
👨‍⚖️ Laz Diaz: large strike zone (K factor 1.08x avg) — favors pitchers / strikeout props
🌬️ Wind 12 mph blowing OUT (NW) at Boston — ball carries well, moderate Over lean (+0.4 runs)
🌡️ Cool (50°F) at Boston — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
🌧️ 76% precipitation chance at Boston (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
⚠ Boston Red Sox schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Houston Astros schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Boston Red Sox 4.1 — Houston Astros 4.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Ranger Suarez: ERA 3.09 | FIP 3.43 / xFIP 3.73 | K/9 7.5 | BB/9 2.3 | IP 35
🔴 Cody Bolton: ERA 5.79 | FIP 4.85 / xFIP 4.71 | K/9 10.9 | BB/9 7.9 | IP 9
Boston Red Sox offense: OPS 0.664 | AVG 0.235 | R/G 3.91
Houston Astros offense: OPS 0.789 | AVG 0.269 | R/G 5.15
Bullpen ERA — Boston Red Sox: 4.29 | Houston Astros: 5.91
Venue: Fenway Park — park factor 1.08 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Brendan Rodgers (2B): OUT
⚕ Boston Red Sox — Hobie Harris (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Laz Diaz — run factor 0.94x | K factor 1.08x | Large strike zone, suppresses runs
🌤 Weather (Boston): 50°F | Wind 12 mph NW (blowing out) | Precip 76%
Model expected runs: Boston Red Sox 4.10 | Houston Astros 4.78
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢38.5
Buy contracts21
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.51
Profit if win+$12.49
Loss if lose-$8.51
Expected value +$4.36
Over 9.5 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
HIGH
Mkt 51.2% → Model 73.5% +22.4% edge ▾
Market
51.2%
Model
73.5%
Edge
+22.4%
Key Signals
Kyle Freeland FIP 3.55 / xFIP 3.48 | K/9: 7.6
Park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly: Coors Field)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Bill Miller: high-scoring games (run factor 1.04x avg) — leans Over
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Atlanta Braves schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Colorado Rockies 6.2 — Atlanta Braves 6.2
Model expected total: 12.3 vs line 9.5
Research & Stats
🔵 Kyle Freeland: ERA 3.48 | FIP 3.55 / xFIP 3.48 | K/9 7.6 | BB/9 2.2 | IP 20
🔴 Spencer Strider (away): stats unavailable
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.715 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.24
Atlanta Braves offense: OPS 0.796 | AVG 0.273 | R/G 5.71
Bullpen ERA — Colorado Rockies: 4.42 | Atlanta Braves: 3.11
Venue: Coors Field — park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Blake Burkhalter (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Bill Miller — run factor 1.04x | K factor 0.97x | Slightly above-avg scoring
🌤 Weather (Denver): 62°F | Wind 5 mph W (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Colorado Rockies 6.17 | Atlanta Braves 6.17
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢51.2
Buy contracts20
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.63
Profit if win+$9.37
Loss if lose-$10.63
Expected value +$4.07
Chicago Cubs ↓
MLB  Moneyline  ·  Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
HIGH
Mkt 59.1% → Model 77.6% +18.5% edge ▾
Market
59.1%
Model
77.6%
Edge
+18.5%
Key Signals
Matthew Boyd FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.08 | K/9: 13.0
Merrill Kelly FIP 9.05 / xFIP 6.02 | K/9: 5.7
Park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly: Wrigley Field)
Chicago Cubs injury impact (-2.5%)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-3.9%)
🌬️ Wind 18 mph blowing OUT (SW) at Chicago — ball carries well, strong Over lean (+0.8 runs)
🌡️ Cool (55°F) at Chicago — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
🌧️ 79% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
⚠ Chicago Cubs schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago Cubs 5.9 — Arizona Diamondbacks 3.8
Research & Stats
🔵 Matthew Boyd: ERA 7.0 | FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.08 | K/9 13.0 | BB/9 2.5 | IP 18
🔴 Merrill Kelly: ERA 9.2 | FIP 9.05 / xFIP 6.02 | K/9 5.7 | BB/9 7.6 | IP 14
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.775 | AVG 0.258 | R/G 5.36
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.714 | AVG 0.248 | R/G 4.56
Bullpen ERA — Chicago Cubs: 3.89 | Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.96
Venue: Wrigley Field — park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Nico Hoerner (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jaxon Wiggins (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Brandon Birdsell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jeff Brigham (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Doug Eddings (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 55°F | Wind 18 mph SW (blowing out) | Precip 79%
Model expected runs: Chicago Cubs 5.91 | Arizona Diamondbacks 3.81
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢59.1
Buy contracts17
Total cost (incl. commission)$10.39
Profit if win+$6.61
Loss if lose-$10.39
Expected value +$2.80
Under 12.5 ↓
MLB  Total  ·  Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
HIGH
Mkt 51.2% → Model 69.4% +18.2% edge ▾
Market
51.2%
Model
69.4%
Edge
+18.2%
Key Signals
Matthew Boyd FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.08 | K/9: 13.0
Merrill Kelly FIP 9.05 / xFIP 6.02 | K/9: 5.7
Park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly: Wrigley Field)
Chicago Cubs injury impact (-2.5%)
Arizona Diamondbacks injury impact (-3.9%)
🌬️ Wind 18 mph blowing OUT (SW) at Chicago — ball carries well, strong Over lean (+0.8 runs)
🌡️ Cool (55°F) at Chicago — slight run suppression (−0.2 runs)
🌧️ 79% precipitation chance at Chicago (rain likely) — monitor for delays/postponement
⚠ Chicago Cubs schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
⚠ Arizona Diamondbacks schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Chicago Cubs 5.9 — Arizona Diamondbacks 3.8
Model expected total: 9.7 vs line 12.0
Research & Stats
🔵 Matthew Boyd: ERA 7.0 | FIP 1.87 / xFIP 2.08 | K/9 13.0 | BB/9 2.5 | IP 18
🔴 Merrill Kelly: ERA 9.2 | FIP 9.05 / xFIP 6.02 | K/9 5.7 | BB/9 7.6 | IP 14
Chicago Cubs offense: OPS 0.775 | AVG 0.258 | R/G 5.36
Arizona Diamondbacks offense: OPS 0.714 | AVG 0.248 | R/G 4.56
Bullpen ERA — Chicago Cubs: 3.89 | Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.96
Venue: Wrigley Field — park factor 1.03 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Nico Hoerner (2B): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jaxon Wiggins (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Brandon Birdsell (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Chicago Cubs — Jeff Brigham (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — A.J. Vukovich (CF): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Kyle Amendt (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Derek Law (RP): OUT
⚕ Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Henry (RP): OUT
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Doug Eddings (near-neutral tendencies)
🌤 Weather (Chicago): 55°F | Wind 18 mph SW (blowing out) | Precip 79%
Model expected runs: Chicago Cubs 5.91 | Arizona Diamondbacks 3.81
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢51.2
Buy contracts16
Total cost (incl. commission)$8.51
Profit if win+$7.49
Loss if lose-$8.51
Expected value +$2.59
Colorado Rockies +1.5 ↓
MLB  Spread  ·  Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
HIGH
Mkt 52.6% → Model 68.2% +15.6% edge ▾
Market
52.6%
Model
68.2%
Edge
+15.6%
Key Signals
Kyle Freeland FIP 3.55 / xFIP 3.48 | K/9: 7.6
Park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly: Coors Field)
Colorado Rockies injury impact (-2.3%)
👨‍⚖️ Umpire Bill Miller: high-scoring games (run factor 1.04x avg) — leans Over
⚠ Colorado Rockies schedule load: 7 games in 7 days
⚠ Atlanta Braves schedule load: 6 games in 7 days
Model projected score: Colorado Rockies 6.2 — Atlanta Braves 6.2
Research & Stats
🔵 Kyle Freeland: ERA 3.48 | FIP 3.55 / xFIP 3.48 | K/9 7.6 | BB/9 2.2 | IP 20
🔴 Spencer Strider (away): stats unavailable
Colorado Rockies offense: OPS 0.715 | AVG 0.251 | R/G 4.24
Atlanta Braves offense: OPS 0.796 | AVG 0.273 | R/G 5.71
Bullpen ERA — Colorado Rockies: 4.42 | Atlanta Braves: 3.11
Venue: Coors Field — park factor 1.30 (hitter-friendly)
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Case Williams (SP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Brayan Castillo (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Colorado Rockies — Jared Thomas (CF): DAY-TO-DAY
⚕ Atlanta Braves — Blake Burkhalter (RP): DAY-TO-DAY
👨‍⚖️ HP Umpire: Bill Miller — run factor 1.04x | K factor 0.97x | Slightly above-avg scoring
🌤 Weather (Denver): 62°F | Wind 5 mph W (blowing out) | Precip 0%
Model expected runs: Colorado Rockies 6.17 | Atlanta Braves 6.17
Robinhood Action
Contract price (est.)¢52.6
Buy contracts13
Total cost (incl. commission)$7.10
Profit if win+$5.90
Loss if lose-$7.10
Expected value +$1.77
2-Leg Parlays 2
Parlay #1 ↓
Combined prob: 47.6% · Edge: +24.8%
HIGH
Houston Astros (Moneyline)
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox · Model: 61.3% · Edge: +22.8%
Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs · Model: 77.6% · Edge: +18.5%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢22.8
Buy contracts15
Total cost$3.72
Profit if win+$11.28
Parlay #2 ↓
Combined prob: 50.1% · Edge: +23.2%
HIGH
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Spread)
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies · Model: 68.2% · Edge: +15.6%
Over 9.5 (Total)
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies · Model: 73.5% · Edge: +22.4%
Robinhood Action
Parlay contract price (est.)¢26.9
Buy contracts12
Total cost$3.47
Profit if win+$8.53
Props Watchlist — model projections only. No sportsbook line available. Search Robinhood manually before betting.
Jalen Duren
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Rebounds Over
HIGH
Proj 10.5 · Bet Over ≤ 10 ▾
Projected
10.5
Bet Over ≤
10
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Jalen Duren rebounds' on Robinhood. Model line: 10.5 RPG season avg. Look for Over at or below 10.
Key Signals
Jalen Duren averages 10.5 rebounds/game this season
Matchup pace supports rebounding volume
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 100.2 | OPPG 98.3 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 109.9 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Cade Cunningham
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Assists Over
HIGH
Proj 9.9 · Bet Over ≤ 9 ▾
Projected
9.9
Bet Over ≤
9
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Cade Cunningham assists' on Robinhood. Model line: 9.9 APG season avg. Look for Over at or below 9.
Key Signals
Cade Cunningham averages 9.9 assists/game this season
High-scoring expected game supports assist volume
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 100.2 | OPPG 98.3 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 109.9 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Donovan Mitchell
NBA  Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 29.3 · Bet Over ≤ 29 ▾
Projected
29.3
Bet Over ≤
29
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Donovan Mitchell points' on Robinhood. Model line: 29.3 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 29.
Key Signals
Donovan Mitchell season avg: 27.9 PPG
Toronto Raptors allows 111.8 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | PPG 119.5 | OPPG 111.8 (opp) | Net +4.1
Toronto Raptors: 46W-36L | Net +2.8
Cleveland Cavaliers recent (14d): PPG 108.6 | OPPG 111.2 | Win% 40%
Model projected team pts: 112.8 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Cleveland Cavaliers: 1d | Toronto Raptors: 1d
Cade Cunningham
NBA  Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 25.2 · Bet Over ≤ 25 ▾
Projected
25.2
Bet Over ≤
25
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Cade Cunningham points' on Robinhood. Model line: 25.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 25.
Key Signals
Cade Cunningham season avg: 23.9 PPG
Orlando Magic allows 115.1 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: star usage boost applied (+5%)
Research & Stats
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | PPG 117.8 | OPPG 115.1 (opp) | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons recent (14d): PPG 100.2 | OPPG 98.3 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 109.9 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Detroit Pistons: 1d | Orlando Magic: 1d
Paolo Banchero
NBA  Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 22.2 · Bet Over ≤ 22 ▾
Projected
22.2
Bet Over ≤
22
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Paolo Banchero points' on Robinhood. Model line: 22.2 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 22.
Key Signals
Paolo Banchero season avg: 22.2 PPG
Detroit Pistons allows 109.6 PPG — average defense
🏆 Playoffs: tighter defense — verify line carefully
Research & Stats
Orlando Magic: 45W-37L | PPG 115.7 | OPPG 109.6 (opp) | Net +0.6
Detroit Pistons: 60W-22L | Net +8.2
Orlando Magic recent (14d): PPG 98.3 | OPPG 100.2 | Win% 50%
Model projected team pts: 106.9 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Orlando Magic: 1d | Detroit Pistons: 1d
Brandon Ingram
NBA  Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Points Over
MEDIUM
Proj 21.5 · Bet Over ≤ 21 ▾
Projected
21.5
Bet Over ≤
21
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Brandon Ingram points' on Robinhood. Model line: 21.5 pts. Look for Robinhood Over at or below 21.
Key Signals
Brandon Ingram season avg: 21.5 PPG
Cleveland Cavaliers allows 115.4 PPG — above avg (weak defense)
🏆 Playoffs: tighter defense — verify line carefully
Research & Stats
Toronto Raptors: 46W-36L | PPG 114.6 | OPPG 115.4 (opp) | Net +2.8
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52W-30L | Net +4.1
Toronto Raptors recent (14d): PPG 111.2 | OPPG 108.6 | Win% 60%
Model projected team pts: 113.5 (league avg 112.0)
Rest days — Toronto Raptors: 1d | Cleveland Cavaliers: 1d
Yandy Díaz
MLB  Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants · Hits Over (1+)
HIGH
Proj 1.0 · Bet Over ≤ 1 ▾
Projected
1.0
Bet Over ≤
1
Signal
HIGH
Search 'Yandy Díaz hits' on Robinhood. Look for Over 0.5 (1+ hits). Facing Tyler Mahle (FIP 5.55).
Key Signals
Yandy Díaz: .333 AVG / .422 OBP this season (135 PA)
Tyler Mahle FIP 5.55 — above avg (4.20), hitter-friendly matchup
Model projects ~3.9 total hits in 5.5 inn
Research & Stats
Tyler Mahle: ERA 5.87 | FIP 5.55 | xFIP 3.83 | K/9 8.6 | BB/9 5.1 | HR/9 1.79
Season IP: 30 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Tropicana Field (park factor 0.96)
Opponent K%: 19.2% (league avg 22.8%)
FIP 5.55 > 4.50 — hitter-favorable matchup
ERA-based hit estimate: ~3.9 hits in 5.5 inn
Braxton Ashcraft
MLB  Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.8 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.8
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Braxton Ashcraft strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.8 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.3 → adjusted 11.2 → projects 6.8 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.11 / xFIP 3.07 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 34 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Braxton Ashcraft: ERA 3.71 | FIP 3.11 | xFIP 3.07 | K/9 10.3 | BB/9 3.2 | HR/9 0.79
Season IP: 34 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: PNC Park (park factor 0.96)
Opponent K%: 24.7% (league avg 22.8%)
Chase Burns
MLB  Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.5 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.5
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Chase Burns strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.5 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.3 → adjusted 10.7 → projects 6.5 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.88 / xFIP 3.11 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 34 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Chase Burns: ERA 2.65 | FIP 3.88 | xFIP 3.11 | K/9 10.3 | BB/9 3.2 | HR/9 1.32
Season IP: 34 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: PNC Park (park factor 0.96)
Opponent K%: 23.6% (league avg 22.8%)
Jesús Luzardo
MLB  Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.4 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.4
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Jesús Luzardo strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.4 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 10.8 → adjusted 10.4 → projects 6.4 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.73 / xFIP 2.39 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 34 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Jesús Luzardo: ERA 5.50 | FIP 2.73 | xFIP 2.39 | K/9 10.8 | BB/9 2.4 | HR/9 0.79
Season IP: 34 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: loanDepot park (park factor 0.94)
Opponent K%: 21.9% (league avg 22.8%)
Kris Bubic
MLB  Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 6.1 · Bet Over ≤ 6 ▾
Projected
6.1
Bet Over ≤
6
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Kris Bubic strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~6.1 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 6.
Key Signals
K/9: 9.5 → adjusted 10.0 → projects 6.1 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 3.80 / xFIP 3.84 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 33 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Kris Bubic: ERA 3.74 | FIP 3.80 | xFIP 3.84 | K/9 9.5 | BB/9 4.6 | HR/9 0.81
Season IP: 33 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: T-Mobile Park (park factor 0.93)
Opponent K%: 24.0% (league avg 22.8%)
Parker Messick
MLB  Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics · Strikeouts Over
MEDIUM
Proj 5.7 · Bet Over ≤ 5 ▾
Projected
5.7
Bet Over ≤
5
Signal
MEDIUM
Search 'Parker Messick strikeouts' on Robinhood. Model: ~5.7 Ks in 5.5 inn. Look for Over at or below 5.
Key Signals
K/9: 9.5 → adjusted 9.3 → projects 5.7 Ks over 5.5 inn
FIP 2.29 / xFIP 2.93 (below league avg 4.20)
Season IP: 36 — limited sample
Research & Stats
Parker Messick: ERA 1.73 | FIP 2.29 | xFIP 2.93 | K/9 9.5 | BB/9 2.5 | HR/9 0.25
Season IP: 36 | Projected start: ~5.5 inn
Venue: Sutter Health Park (park factor 1.00)
Opponent K%: 22.3% (league avg 22.8%)
Budget Allocation
# Bet & Game Edge
Score		 Qty Cost
Profit
1
Houston Astros (Moneyline) ↑
MLB
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
+22.8%
—
 21
8.5%
$8.51
+$12.49
2
Over 9.5 (Total) ↑
MLB
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
+22.4%
—
 20
10.6%
$10.63
+$9.37
3
Chicago Cubs (Moneyline) ↑
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
+18.5%
—
 17
10.4%
$10.39
+$6.61
4
Under 12.5 (Total) ↑
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
+18.2%
—
 16
8.5%
$8.51
+$7.49
5
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Spread) ↑
MLB
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
+15.6%
—
 13
7.1%
$7.10
+$5.90
P1
Houston Astros (Moneyline) + Chicago Cubs (Moneyline) ↑
Parlay
+24.8%
—
 15
3.7%
$3.72
+$11.28
P2
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Spread) + Over 9.5 (Total) ↑
Parlay
+23.2%
—
 12
3.5%
$3.47
+$8.53
Deployed $52.33 / $100
Today's Profit —
Reserve (do not force bets) $47.67
Props Model Accuracy — how often the model's projection exceeded the actual stat
Props Settled
78
Model Hit Rate
47.4%
Avg Error
-1.6
Prop Type Settled Hit Rate Avg Proj Avg Actual Avg Error
Points 19 31.6% 27.0 23.5 -3.4
Rebounds 17 47.1% 11.2 9.8 -1.4
Assists 7 28.6% 9.9 7.7 -2.2
Strikeouts 14 35.7% 6.0 4.4 -1.7
Hits 21 76.2% 1.0 1.2 +0.2
HIGH confidence
57.5%
23H / 17M (40 settled)
MEDIUM confidence
36.8%
14H / 24M (38 settled)
Model Performance
Record
27W–23L
Win Rate
54.0%
Total PnL
$+47.96
ROI
10.4%
By Confidence & Sport Each tile is an independent view — totals match the headline above
HIGH
26W–22L (54.2%)
$+62.74
MEDIUM
1W–1L (50.0%)
$-14.78
NBA
8W–4L (66.7%)
$+30.79
MLB
14W–11L (56.0%)
$-3.23
PARLAYS
5W–8L (38.5%)
$+20.40
▶ Trend Charts & Calibration (51 settled bets)
Cumulative PnL $+47.96 total
$+51 $0 $-54 04-25 04-29 05-02
Rolling Win Rate (last 20 bets)
50% 100% 50% 0% 04-25 04-29 05-02
Edge Calibration Model win% vs actual win% — ideally these should align
Edge bucket Bets Model win% Actual win% Delta
3–8% 3 55.0% 100.0% +45.0%
8–15% 5 51.4% 50.0% -1.4%
15%+ 43 71.2% 51.2% -20.0%
Delta = Actual − Model. Green = outperforming model expectations. Red = underperforming. Meaningful only with 10+ bets per bucket.
Sports Betting Analysis System · Robinhood Contracts
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